Analysis of population projections 2015-16

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In the name of Allah, most merciful and most compassionate
Preface
It is a matter of great pleasure for the Central Statistics Organization ( CSO ), to publish
the Afghanistan Population Estimation for the year 1394 ( 2015 -16 ), In Dari, Pashto and
English Languages . It is hoped that this publication respond to some urgent population data
needs of policy and decision makers as well as scholars , researchers and others data users.
The Population Estimation has been done on the basis of the data obtained from the 1381-1384
(2003-05) Household Listing ( HHL ). The formula, Pt = Po ert has been used to calculate
the estimated population. Where : Pt = Estimated Population , Po = Base Year Population,
e = Base of Natural Logarithm , r = Population Growth Rate , t = Time Interval .
Due to existence of more than three decades of war and conflict in the country, it has not been
possible to conduct the second population census, after the population census 1979 so far. The
settled population of the country, by civil divisions, urban, rural and sex is estimated which
covers 34 provinces (364 districts and 34 provincial center). It may also be noted that 66 cities
of the country are included in the total of 398 administrative units. The total population of the
country in 1394 (2015 -16) is estimated to be about 28.6 million persons. Around 14.7 million
persons of the said figure are men and 13.9 million persons women. The settled population of
the country (excluding nomads) is estimated at 27.1 million persons, of which, 13.2 million
persons ( 49 % ) are females and 13.9 million persons (51 %) males. Similarly, out of
27.1 million persons settled population, 20.4 million persons (75.3 % ) live in rural areas and
6.7 million persons (24.7 %) in urban areas.
Regarding to the Nomadic Population it should be mentioned, that the result of the national
multi-sector survey which was conducted in 2004 in the country shows that nomadic population
is 1.46 million persons. However, CSO estimation of the nomadic population has been kept at
1.5 million persons, Based on census 1979, that is not included in the estimated population of
provinces.
The Central Statistics Organization hopes that the Population Estimation of the country meets
some of the urgent needs of population data users at the same time we hope that with conduct
of the second population and housing census of the country we provide users with up to date,
reliable and comprehensive data.
Central Statistics Organization
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