Conditional Probabilities Observation Form (Adapted from Eckert, Martens, & Di Gennaro, 2005)
1
Conditional Probabilities Observation Chart
(Adapted from Eckert, Martens, & Di Gennaro, 2005)
During a traditional Antecedent-Behavior-Consequence (‘ABC’) recording, the observer
writes a running account of a student’s behaviors and the classroom events that appear to
trigger, or to act as consequences of, that behavior. A drawback of ABC recordings is that
they may not show clear relationships between behaviors and the consequences that reinforce
those behaviors. The Conditional Probabilities Observation Form (based upon a description from Eckert, Martens, & Di
Gennaro, 2005) allows the observer to compute and chart the conditional probability that a specific consequence is
contingent on a target student behavior. This information can be useful in completing a Functional Behavioral
Assessment and in designing behavioral interventions.
Selecting and Defining a Target Behavior. Using a combination of data-collection methods (e.g., teacher interview,
direct observation of the student), determine a single target problem behavior that is to be observed using this form.
Define the behavior in clear, measurable terms. Here is an example of a behavioral definition for ‘off-task’: “any passive
behavior, motor activity, or audible verbalization lasting longer than 3 seconds that was not permitted and/or was not
related to an assigned academic task.” (Eckert, Martens, & Di Gennaro, 2005; p. 522)
Conducting the Observation.
 Conduct a series of brief (10-15 minute) observations in the location(s) and during the activitie(s) when the
student typically displays the problem (‘target’) behavior. Three to five observations are recommended.
 During each successive 15-second interval of an observation period, mark the ‘Behavior?’ box with an ‘X’ if the
student displays the target behavior at any time during that interval. Leave the box blank if no behavior occurs.
 During each 15-second interval, mark the appropriate code into the ‘Consequence?’ box for each consequence
that occurs during the 15-second interval. Use the following codes: P = Peer Attention; T=Teacher Attention,
I=Item Activity, E=Escape, N=No Consequence. Mark every consequence observed, whether or not the target
behavior occurs during the interval.
To Score:
1. Counting Up Intervals With and Without Contingent Consequences. Compute the number of intervals during the
observation in which the Target Behavior AND Consequence occurred. Write these values into Table 1, Column
A. Then compute the number of intervals in which the Consequence occurred WITHOUT the Target Behavior.
Write these values into Table 1, Column B.
2. Computing Conditional Probabilities of Contingent Consequences. In Table 2, enter the requested values in each
column and follow the directions in the table to compute the probability that BOTH Target Behavior AND
Consequence Occurred.
3. Computing Conditional Probabilities of Non-Contingent Consequences. In Table 3, enter the requested values in
each column and follow the directions in the table to compute the probability that the Consequence occurred
WITHOUT the Target Behavior.
4. Charting ‘Conditional Probabilities.’ The Y (vertical) coordinate for each consequence can be found in the
appropriate row of Table 2, Column F. The X (horizontal) coordinate for each consequence can be found in the
appropriate row of Table 3, Column F. Plot the ‘conditional probability’ of each consequence occurring in the
presence of and in the absence of the target behavior. Next to each plotted value, write the name of the
consequence plotted (e.g., ‘Peer Attention’).
5. Interpreting the Chart. Any consequence that falls above the ‘unity diagonal’ line in the chart suggests that the
consequence is contingent on (occurs in the presence of) the target behavior. The farther above or to the left of
the line the plotted value falls, the greater the demonstrated relationship between consequence and target
behavior. Any consequence that falls below the ‘unity diagonal’ line in the chart suggests that the consequence is
not contingent on (occurs independently of) the target behavior. The farther below or to the right of the line the
plotted value falls, the greater the evidence of independence between consequence and target behavior.
Eckert, T. L., Martens, B. K., & Di Gennaro, F. D. (2005). Describing antecedent-behavior-consequence relations using conditional
probabilities and the general operant contingency space: A preliminary investigation. School Psychology Review, 34, 520-528.
Jim Wright
www.interventioncentral.org
jim@jimwrightonline.com
Conditional Probabilities Observation Form (Adapted from Eckert, Martens, & Di Gennaro, 2005)
2
Student Name: ______________________________________________ Date: ____________
Observer: _______________________ Location: ___________________ Start Time: _______ End Time: _________
Description of Activities: ___________________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________
‘Target Behavior’ Definition: ___________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
0:00
0:15
5:00
5:15
1
0:30
0:45
1:00
1:15
5:30
5:45
6:00
6:15
2
1:30
1:45
2:00
2:15
6:30
6:45
7:00
7:15
3
2:30
2:45
3:00
3:15
7:30
7:45
8:00
8:15
4
3:30
3:45
4:00
4:15
8:30
8:45
9:00
9:15
5
4:30
4:45
Behavior?
Consequence?
6
7
8
9
10
9:30
9:45
Behavior?
Consequence?
11
12
13
14
15
10:00 10:15 10:30 10:45 11:00 11:15 11:30 11:45 12:00 12:15 12:30 12:45 13:00 13:15 13:30 13:45 14:00 14:15 14:30 14:45
Behavior?
Consequence?
Table 1: Number of Intervals When Consequences Were Observed
Column A: Compute the number of
Column B: Compute the number of
intervals in which the Target
intervals in which the Consequence
Consequence Behavior AND Consequence
occurred WITHOUT the Target
occurred. NOTE: If more than 1
Behavior. NOTE: If more than 1
consequence occurs during an
consequence occurs during an interval,
interval, categorize the interval by
categorize the interval by the FIRST
the FIRST consequence that
consequence that occurred.
occurred.
Peer Attention
Teacher Attention
Item / Activity
Escape
Consequence Codes
P=Peer Attention: Physical contact, eye
contact or verbal interactions with peers
T=Teacher Attention: Physical contact,
eye contact or verbal interactions with
teacher
I=Item/Activity: Handling item or
engaged in activity that is unconnected
with instructional task
E=Escape: Student actions that result in
avoidance of the work task, such as
putting away materials prematurely,
leaving desk, or leaving the classroom
N=No Consequence: Npne of the above
consequences displayed during interval
No Consequence
Jim Wright
www.interventioncentral.org
jim@jimwrightonline.com
Conditional Probabilities Observation Form (Adapted from Eckert, Martens, & Di Gennaro, 2005)
Interpreting the Chart. Any consequence that falls above the
‘unity diagonal’ line in the chart suggests that the consequence is
contingent on (occurs in the presence of) the target behavior. The
farther above or to the left of the line the plotted value falls, the
greater the demonstrated relationship between consequence and
target behavior.
Any consequence that falls below the ‘unity diagonal’ line in the
chart suggests that the consequence is not contingent on (occurs
independently of) the target behavior. The farther below or to the
right of the line the plotted value falls, the greater the evidence of
independence between consequence and target behavior.
Probability: CONSEQUENCE Occurring
WITH Target Behavior
(horizontal) coordinate for each consequence can be found in the
appropriate row of Table 3, Column F. The Y (vertical) coordinate
for each consequence can be found in the appropriate row of
Table 2, Column F. Plot the ‘conditional probability’ of each
consequence occurring in the presence of and in the absence of
the target behavior. Next to each plotted value, write the name of
the consequence plotted (e.g., ‘Peer Attention’).
Conditional Probabilities Observation Chart
1.0
Directions for Charting ‘Conditional Probabilities.’ The X
3
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Probability: CONSEQUENCE Occurring
WITHOUT Target Behavior
Table 2: Probability of A Consequence Occurring in the PRESENCE of the Target Behavior
Column A
Type of
Consequence
Column B
Column C
Number of
intervals/
BOTH Target
Behavior AND
Consequence
Occurred
Column D
Column E
The TOTAL
number of
intervals in the
observation
period(s)
Column F
Column G
Decimal
probability that
BOTH Target
Behavior AND
Consequence
Occurred
Peer Attention
Divided
by
Equals
Teacher
Attention
Divided
by
Equals
Item / Activity
Divided
by
Equals
Escape
Divided
by
Equals
No
Consequence
Divided
by
Equals
Column H
% Probability that
BOTH Target
Behavior AND
Consequence
Occurred
Multiplied
by 100 =
Multiplied
by 100 =
Multiplied
by 100 =
Multiplied
by 100 =
Multiplied
by 100 =
%
%
%
%
%
Table 3: Probability of A Consequence Occurring in the ABSENCE of the Target Behavior
Column A
Type of
Consequence
Peer Attention
Column B
Column C
Number of
intervals/
Consequence
occurred
WITHOUT the
Target Behavior
Column D
Column E
The TOTAL
number of
intervals in the
observation
period(s)
Divided
by
Equals
Teacher
Attention
Divided
by
Equals
Item / Activity
Divided
by
Equals
Escape
Divided
by
Equals
No
Consequence
Divided
by
Equals
Jim Wright
Column F
Column G
Decimal
probability that the
Consequence
occurred
WITHOUT the
Target Behavior
www.interventioncentral.org
Column H
% Probability that the
Consequence
occurred WITHOUT
the Target Behavior
Multiplied
by 100 =
Multiplied
by 100 =
Multiplied
by 100 =
Multiplied
by 100 =
Multiplied
by 100 =
jim@jimwrightonline.com
%
%
%
%
%