Sustaining the Collection of Systematic Observations
of the Global Oceans
Stan Wilson, NOAA and Francois Parisot, EUMETSAT
How do we develop consensus priorities for implementing operational observing systems
for the global oceans?
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At present we have a shopping list of systematic observations that we want continued
on a sustained basis; we need a framework for priority setting – to identify combined
sets of satellite and in situ observations – based on the questions we want to address.
If we do not have, and can not articulate, our priorities, then I fear we will get little or
nothing of our systematic observations established on a sustained basis. Consider the
following progression of questions:
1. Ocean state – What is the present state of the oceans, i.e., the two state variables,
the surface pressure field and the density field? (A continuing capability to do
this provides the time-varying, depth dependent geostrophic circulation)
- This requires the global Argo array plus the Jason series for climate and the
addition of two or more complementary altimeters to address weather.
- What else? Argo-type observations under the ice? Deep hydrographic surveys
every decade?
- These observations are the oceanic analogues to the atmospheric density field
from radiosondes & satellite sounders and surface pressure field from
barometers; can you imagine weather forecasts or climate reanalyses
proceeding without these two state variables for the atmosphere?
2. Mass balance – What is the present rate of sea level rise, to what extent is it
accelerating, and how well do we understand it?
- This requires all of the above
- What else? GRACE for the increase in the mass of the oceans due to the
addition of water from melting terrestrial ice, as well as for the reduction in
terrestrial ice mass.
- The most obvious manifestation of climate change in the oceans – as well as
the most directly relevant to society – is sea level rise; the IPCC’s Fourth
Assessment Report notes that the upper values of the ranges given in its
projections are not to be considered upper bounds for sea level rise.
3. Momentum balance – Adding wind forcing – What is the total circulation of the
oceans – geostrophic and wind-driven?
- This requires the observations for item 1 above
- What else? Scatterometry for the stress on the surface of the oceans
4. Heat balance – Adding thermodynamic forcing.
- All-weather SST from AMSR-class radiometer.
- Time series stations for air-sea flux parameters.
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Sustaining current observational capabilities, to the extent it is to happen, will be
dependent on the operational agencies and their efforts to develop an operational
infrastructure – a systematic and sustained capability that builds on the corresponding
successes realized by the R&D space agencies.
How do we establish an operational infrastructure for observing a single parameter?
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What sequence of steps needs to be taken for that parameter’s observing system?
1. Demonstrate its technical feasibility in space – that the system can observe the
parameter in question
2. Demonstrate its scientific utility – that the observations can be observed with
sufficient accuracy to be useful scientifically
3. Demonstrate its operational utility – that an operational agency, given timely
access to such observations, can utilize those observations can have a significant
impact on meeting its mission needs
4. Demonstrate success in the budget process – that the operational agency in
question, working within its fiscal and political environment, is able to secure the
resources required to implement that observing system
This implies the successful transition of support for the observing system from an
R&D agency (being responsible for steps 1, 2 and a little of 3) to an operational
agency (most of step 3 and all of 4) for implementation
This process requires justification – convincing the government supporting that
agency of the potential impact or value, in terms of societal relevance, of that
observing system:
o Note that some impact can more easily be expressed in quantifiable terms, like
how much a weather forecast is improved – where impact is realized within hours
to days
o However, some are expressed in terms of the parameter’s role in the climate
system – where its impact may not be realized for years to decades
o Both will require successful competition in the agency’s fiscal environment to
secure the resources required for implementation, but the latter will of necessity
require political appreciation of the importance of addressing climate change
Are there ocean parameters for which we have already established global operational
observing capability?
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Which can we say have already been operationalized?
o AVHRR on NOAA’s POES and EUMETSAT’s Metop
- This has resulted from a long series of AVHRRs in space, one supported by
the meteorological community to meet the need for SST as a lower boundary
condition for the atmosphere
o ASCAT on EUMETSAT’s Metop series
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Demonstrating operational impact on weather was straightforward; the inhouse vertical integration (research-to-operations) within ECMWF facilitated
demonstrating that impact; cost of implementing clones was straight forward
What challenges do we face in our efforts to establish additional operational systems?
We are working to transition from research to operations, and in the process we – the
operational agencies – are facing these challenges:
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Societal relevance – The operational agencies have to be able to make the case that
what we are proposing to implement on a long-continuing basis is worth a
corresponding continuing investment of tax dollars; it is different than making the
case in an R&D agency
Fiscal – We have, and will continue to have, a tight budget environment
o In the U.S., we are attempting to establish elements of an operational ocean
capability in a level-funding environment on top of a growing NPOESS/GOES-R
program and a well entrenched operational weather forecasting program
o In Europe, research and operational programs frequently compete within
essentially the same overall envelope, so more for operational programs means
less research money and less innovation; thus, scientists may oppose increasing
the fraction that is devoted to operational programs and their maintenance and
operations, as it means squeezing out research programs
Climate change – While the leadership of some countries recognize and appreciate
climate change as an issue to be addressed, others haven’t
o In the U.S. we have faced an Administration with little appreciation of climate
change, but we are now facing a new Administration that sounds like it will be
much more supportive.
Ocean’s role in climate– Assuming political appreciation of climate change,
oceanographers are competing within the overall Earth science community for
resources, and we need to clearly articulate the critical role played by the global
oceans
o In NOAA, atmospheric interests have tended to dominate the climate agenda
Organizational – Some countries have an organizational focus for the implementation
of operational oceanography, eg, the French MERCATOR
o In NOAA, contributing elements to such an infrastructure are spread across the
agency
Integrating in situ and satellite observing systems – We need both; these two
communities need to be helping each other, not competing, in their efforts to address
societal issues of importance
Focus and prioritize – Operational agencies typically have little budgetary flexibility,
therefore need to focus and prioritize when attempting the implementation of
operational infrastructure; they need to concentrate on those parameters for which
there have been successful demonstrations of technical feasibility and scientific utility
Clear, concise and consistent message – Up to now, the operational agencies have
been hearing multiple messages, a veritable shopping list of observing systems.
While that may be suitable for R&D agencies, I believe that – to secure the resources
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to implement an operational infrastructure for observing the global oceans – we need
a clean, concise and consistent message that reflects priorities outlined in a
progression of successive steps.
Some concluding comments
 While the items above may seem obvious, I do not think that there is an appreciation
of the need for operational agencies to prioritize as they move into implement
operational oceanography
o While this is not the case in at least several other countries, there does not appear
to be recognition of such a need within NOAA
 And considering that no nation can implement operational observations for the global
oceans on its own, we need to collaborate internationally to ensure that global
coverage is addressed; and for that, we need a shared roadmap
 The above provides the physical framework for the global oceans on the scale of
ocean basins; to this we can:
o Add ocean color and biogeochemical observations to add an ecosystem modeling
layer to basin-scale models
o Nest coastal models and provide outer boundary conditions to them
o Nest event-based models (like hurricanes) and provide lower boundary conditions
to them
 If we don’t have operational observing systems for the basic physical parameters, we
will may end up with a relatively disconnected set of observing systems and models
that have little synergy – with each competing for resources on its own.
 I believe that we need overall consensus on whatever approach is used for
establishing operational observations for the global oceans – one that reflects
consensus between nations, between research and operational agencies, and between
those inside and outside government
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