Name: AP U.S. Government and Politics Mr. Fernández Unit 1 – "We, the People" The American People Demographics Public Opinion Who are we? What do we believe? Political Behavior Political Engagement Who do we vote for? How involved are we in our political system? Political Culture Public Opinion Polling Voter Turnout Political Knowledge What are the broad beliefs that unite us? How do we find out what people believe? How much do we vote? How much do we know about politics? Political Ideology Within our political culture, what are the beliefs that divide us? Political Preference Political Socialization Who believes what? How do we come to hold our beliefs? Unit Outline I. Demographic Characteristics of the United States A. Overall population figures 1. Regions of greatest growth- In recent years, the Southeast and Southwest have been growing faster than other regions. 2. Trends in birthrate- Birthrate is declining, however, the population will continue to grow due to the flow of immigrants into the country. 3. Impact of Baby Boomers- Baby boomers dominate a large part of the population of each time period, being the kids in 1960, work force in 1990, and the retired people in 2030. 4. Impact of immigration- Immigration has drastically increased the population of the country. 5. Future population projections- In the future, it is projected that whites won’t be the majority. The combination of the minorities will be greater than the total number of whites. This is already true for many counties. Hispanics are projected to be 29% of the population, blacks to be 13%, Asians to be 9%, and whites to be 47% in 2050. B. Social and economic trends 1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - GDP of the US overall is the highest of most countries. Per capita, it is much lower. This means that there are more rich people that cause the GDP to be higher. 2. Income/wealth distribution- The highest income bracket has 50% of the income share in the US. 3. Socioeconomic status (SES) - There are a lot more rich people than most people think. 4. Poverty rate- The poverty rate is 13.2%, 39.8 million people. There is the most poverty in cities, followed closely by rural, and the least in suburbs. 5. SES health gradient- Richer people tend to be healthier than those of a lower SES. This is because you must be in good health to make money and money can keep you in good health. 6. Union membership- Union membership was up in the 1950’s but has steadily declined since then. There is the most union membership in Washington state, New York, Alaska and Hawai’i. 7. Religious affiliation a. Evangelical vs. mainline Protestant- 26% of the pop are Evangelical Protestants. 18% are mainline. Evangelical Protestants stress conversion of religion, expression of the New Testament, regard for the Bible and the sacrifice of Christ. Most evangelical Protestants are in the Southeast. b. Trends in religious affiliation over time- Recently, the number of Protestants has gone down and no religion has increased. 8. Educational attainment- Asians have the highest educational attainment, followed by whites, followed by blacks, followed by Hispanics. C. Race and ethnicity 1. Minority majority areas- Southwest, Alaska, Hawaii 2 2. Economic and social characteristics of a. African Americans- Mostly Christian; usually live in Southeast, metropolitan areas; more are single than married, however, there is still a large population of married couples; they usually have less educational attainment than whites; work around the same amount as whites; blacks are more likely to be under the poverty line than the national average or whites; very few make over $75,000 a year, most make less than $25,000. b. Hispanics/Latinos- usually live in CA, FL, TX, NY; most are high school grads or have completed less than 9th grade; mostly married or nonfamily household; poverty rate higher than the national average; most don’t have health insurance; mostly Catholic; 2nd lowest average income group; c. Asian Americans- mostly in CA; Chinese are the most common, then Filipino, then Indians; most are married or nonfamily households; Asians have the highest income of any group; poverty rate 12.6%; most have at least a Bachelor’s degree. D. Gross domestic product (GDP) – Asians have highest GDP per capita followed by whites, then Hispanics, then blacks. II. Public Opinion A. Political Culture 1. Elements of U.S. political culture a. Democracy (a) Majority rule- majority of the vote rules the decision; Americans think democracy is a good system. (b) Popular sovereignty- the people run the country; Americans think it is important. (c) Rule of law- leaders should follow laws also; most Americans think that it is extremely important. b. Freedom/civil liberty (a) Economic freedom (capitalism) - most Americans think that capitalism is the best economic system. c. Equality (a) Social equality- people are treated the same (b) Political equality- people cannot be denied jobs because of race, gender or religion (c) Equality of opportunity- all people should have equal opportunities d. Anti-statism/anti-authoritarianism- most people want more freedom and less government. 2. Conflicts between different elements of U.S. political culture- liberty vs. equality 3. Difference between U.S. and collectivist political cultures- US wants to be independent, and collectivist cultures want everything to belong to everyone. B. Political Ideology 3 1. Conservative (right), liberal (left), moderate (center), leaning 2. Ideological dimensions a. Economic/fiscal policy- C- want to be as hands-off as possible L- want to be as involved as possible economically (a) Government intervention in the economy- L- Government should guarantee economic opportunity for all C- Government should guarantee economic freedom for all. (b) Redistributive policies- L- The wealthy should be taxed more and money should be given to help the poor more C- The rich should have the same tax rate as others. (c) Tax policy- L- Higher taxes are needed for the safety net C- Low taxes are needed for economic freedom. (d) Economic regulations- L- Regulations on business are required to protect consumers, workers and the environment C- Regulations on businesses will ruin the economy. b. Social policy- L- Hands-off socially C- Want to control social lives of people. (a) Religions in government- L- Don’t think they should mix C- Want to mix church and state. (b) Morality- L- Think that gov’t shouldn’t have laws on morality C- There should be morality laws. (c) Immigration- L- Immigrants should be integrated into society C- Immigrants should be removed from the country. c. National security, order vs. liberty (a) Military policy- C- The only way to stop terrorism is militarily L- Fighting isn’t necessary. (b) Diplomatic policy- C- Diplomacy gets us nowhere L- Diplomacy is the best way to stop problems. (c) Criminal law (including death penalty)- L- The problems causing the crime should be resolved C- Hard punishment will stop crime by setting an example. (d) Gun rights- C- people should have rights to as many guns as they want L- Guns should be restricted. d. Balance of power between national/local 3. The ideology of political parties a. Democratic Party- usually Liberal b. Republican Party- usually Conservative c. Green Party- usually Liberal d. Libertarian Party- Economically Conservative, Socially Liberal C. Political Preference 1. Political socialization a. Sites of political socialization (family, school, etc.) 4 2. Political preference (i.e. political beliefs) a. Self-identification vs. disaggregated ideological leaning- People may identify themselves as something different from what they actually are. b. Political preference differences by: (a) Race/ethnicity- AA- Moderate, with equal number of C and L. Economic Liberal. Social Conservative. AS- Tend to be moderate. HL- Equal amounts are conservative and moderate. Social Conservative, Econ. Liberal. W- Mostly Conservative. (b) Socioeconomic status (SES) - Low- Usually Economic liberal because they want gov’t benefits. Higher- Usually economic conservative. (c) Gender- Men- usually social conservative. Women- usually social liberal. (d) Region and population density (urban, suburban, rural) – Urban- usually liberal. Suburban- usually conservative. Rural- usually conservative. Southeast- usually conservative. California + Pacific coast- usually liberal. Northeast- Mostly moderate leaning liberal. Midwest- Mostly conservative. Southwest- Majority moderate leaning conservative (e) Educational attainment- Less than high school or high school grad- usually economic liberal. College degree or more- usually conservative. (f) Age (political generations) - Younger people- usually social liberals b/c more open. Older people- usually social conservative b/c more traditional. III. Political Behavior A. Political behavior differences by: 1. Race/ethnicity- AA- Usually vote for Democrats. AS- Usually vote for Democrats. HLUsually vote for Democrats. W- Usually vote for Republicans. 2. Socioeconomic status (SES) - Lower SES- Usually vote for Democrats. Higher SES- Usually vote Republicans. 3. Gender (gender gap) – Men- Usually vote Republican. Women- Usually vote Democratic. 4. Region and population density (urban, suburban, rural) – Urban- Usually Democrat. Suburban and Rural- pretty evenly split usually. Southeast- Usually Republican. California + Pacific Coast- Usually Democratic. Northeast- Usually Democrat. Midwest- Usually Republican. Southwest- Usually Republican. 5. Educational attainment- Not HS grad and HS grads- Usually vote democratic. College Degree- Usually vote Republican. Postgrad- Usually Democrat 6. Age (political generations) – Younger- tend to vote Democratic. Older- tend to vote Republican. IV. Political Engagement A. Forms of political engagement 1. Voting 2. Political knowledge 5 3. Contacting public officials 4. Alternative forms of engagement (protests, etc.) B. Trends in political engagement 1. Decline in social capital- as technology allows us to interact others without even meeting them or not interact with anyone, people have stopped joining social groups such as bowling leagues and PTSA’s. 2. Voter turnout a. Historical trends in voter turnout- since the beginning of the 20th century, voter turnout has been dropping. Now it is at 63.6%. b. Comparison with other democratic countries- Of all of the Democratic countries, the US has one of the lowest voter turnout rates. c. Some reasons for low voter turnout (a) Socioeconomic resources- If one had wages then, they would lose time working to go vote. This time would be the difference between having dinner and not. Low SES people are less likely to have cars and public transport is expensive. Low SES may not know about the candidates due to lack of input such as TV and internet. (b) Psychological engagement (political efficacy, external and internal)Political Efficacy -Internal: Understanding of politics; more internal efficacy, the more likely to vote you are. Young people and immigrants have lower internal efficacy. -External: Extent to which you believe that the gov’t understands you and wants to help you. Immigrants don’t think leaders understand their struggle. (c) Decline in partisanship- less people are dedicated members of political parties than there used to be. (d) Low trust in government- the number of people who don’t trust the people has spiked up. d. Results of nonvoting – political legitimacy- people acknowledge the fact that the gov’t is in control. 3. Political knowledge a. Trends in political knowledge- people generally have a low amount of political knowledge. b. Negative impact of low political knowledge- the people don’t know who they are voting for and why they are. c. Political heuristics theory (a) Rational ignorance- learning all of the political knowledge in the polls wouldn’t have much benefit. (b) Cognitive cues- may vote for a leader based on their political party. (c) Opinion leaders- base vote on what leaders such as Oprah say. 6 V. Public Opinion Polling A. Scientific polling 1. Random sampling- everyone in the population has an equal chance of being polled. 2. Random-digit dialing- random phone numbers are dialed to ask the survey questions. 3. Difficulties with cell phones- cell phones aren’t listed in phone books; also, someone called may be driving or in a restaurant, situations difficult to have a long conversation in. B. Errors in polling 1. Sampling error- the margin of error; the larger the sample, the smaller the sampling error; the sampling error is usually around + or – 3%. 2. Sample bias- not having a sample that represents all parts of the population. 3. Ambiguous questions- questions can drastically change the answers to the questions. C. Kinds of polls 1. Exit poll- survey of people leaving voting stations on Election Day; often used by new agencies to predict the winner. 2. Benchmark poll- usually conducted by candidates for public office; taken to gather baseline information about attitudes towards candidates; used to develop campaign strategies. 3. Tracking poll- track changes in attitudes over time; often conducted by news media and polling organizations; often conducted by candidates for public office; helps candidates revise campaign strategy. 4. Pseudo polls a. Push poll- a telemarketing technique in which telephone calls are places to potential voters, feeding them false and damaging “information” about a candidate under the guise of taking a poll. In fact, the intent is to “push” the voters away from a candidate. b. Self-selection poll (TV/radio call-in polls) – TV shows ask people to text in their votes for a poll; however, the people watching are usually biased towards the person they’re watching. The show usually gives information that makes one answer seem “more right”. Potential Essay Prompts Students should be able to: Define American political culture, including areas of conflict. Americans think that what the majority of people think should be true. They want their voice to be heard and think that none should be above the law. They also think that all should be equal. However, some people, the liberals, believe that affirmative action must be taken. This means that those who have been disadvantaged in the past should be advantaged in the present. Many people think this is segregation and dislike this idea. Americans think that everything should be about the people and don’t a single entity, but rather many entities, working together as one. Describe contemporary political ideologies as they reflect beliefs about economic and social policy, national security and law and order, and the balance of power between the national and local levels of government. Place a statement about government (e.g., “Drugs should be legalized.”) on the ideological spectrum. Liberals think that free market cannot maintain itself without outside intervention, because of that, they want to help the people economically by regulating businesses. On the topic of national 7 security, they think that all problems can be solved with diplomacy and very little military. In the country, rather than severely punishing criminals, they think they can stop crime by solving what causes the problems. They also think that the gov’t should be mostly centered. Socially, they think the people should have the right to choose for abortion and gay rights. Conservatives are basically the opposite. They think that the economy should be left alone. They think that military is the best way to protect the country. They think severe punishment will stop crime by setting examples. They want gov’t to be distributed with the state gov’t. Socially, they don’t want gay rights or abortion. They also want morality laws and prayer in school. The statement, “Drugs should be legalized” is an extremely liberal statement because it is socially relaxed. Describe the general ideological positions of the two major political parties, as well as the Green Party and the Libertarian policy. Green is liberal. Dem is liberal. Rep is conservative. Libertarian are socially liberal and economically conservative… Describe the demographic composition of the United States, including race, ethnicity, income, population density, region, and religion. Discuss sources of division in public opinion, including ideological stance, self-interest, and demographic factors such as age, race/ethnicity, education, religion, and place. Analyze graphs and tables relating to the demographics of political beliefs and voter turnout. Evaluate differences in levels of voter turnout between different demographic groups. Describe the socioeconomic and psychological factors that contribute to low voter turnout. Assess the impact of low voter turnout on elections and American democracy in general. Evaluate the strength of a given public opinion poll, including the validity of questions and sampling techniques used. Analyze contemporary problems and controversies associated with public opinion polling, including non-response, push polls and exit polls. 8