1 Word count text: 3597; Word count abstract: 250; Number of references: 45; Tables: 5; Figures: 0; Supplementary Figure: 1; Supplementary Tables: 2. Maternal educational level and blood pressure, aortic stiffness, cardiovascular structure and functioning in childhood: The Generation R Study Running title: Maternal education and cardiovascular outcomes Selma H. BOUTHOORN MDa,b, Frank J. VAN LENTHE PhDb, Layla L. DE JONGE MDa,c,d, Albert HOFMAN MD PhDa,c , Lennie VAN OSCH-GEVERS, MD, PhDd, Vincent WV JADDOE MD PhDa,c,d, Hein RAAT MD PhDb a The Generation R Study Group, Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, the Netherlands; b c Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Centre, the Netherlands; Department of Epidemiology, Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam, the Netherlands; d Department of Pediatrics, Erasmus Medical Centre, the Netherlands. Corresponding author Selma H. Bouthoorn MD. The Generation R Study Group, Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre Rotterdam. P.O. Box 2040, 3000 CA Rotterdam, the Netherlands; Telephone: +31 (0)10-704 38496; fax: +31 (0)10 704 4645; e-mail: s.bouthoorn@erasmusmc.nl. Conflict of interest: None 2 Abstract 1 Background: In adults, low level of education was shown to be associated with higher blood 2 pressure levels and alterations in cardiac structures and function. It is currently unknown 3 whether socioeconomic inequalities in arterial and cardiac alterations originate in childhood. 4 Therefore, we investigated the association of maternal education with blood pressure levels, 5 arterial stiffness and cardiac structures and function at the age of 6 years, and potential 6 underlying factors. 7 Methods: The study included 5843 children participating in a prospective cohort study in the 8 Netherlands. Maternal education was assessed at enrollment. Blood pressure, carotid-femoral 9 pulse wave velocity, left atrial diameter, aortic root diameter, left ventricular mass and 10 fractional shortening were measured at the age of 6 years. 11 Results: Children with low educated (category 1) mothers had higher systolic (2.80 mm Hg, 12 95% CI: 1.62-2.94) and diastolic (1.80 mm Hg, 95% CI: 1.25-2.35) blood pressure levels as 13 compared to children with high educated (category 4) mothers. The main explanatory factors 14 were the child’s BMI, maternal BMI and physical activity. Maternal education was negatively 15 associated with fractional shortening (p for trend 0.008), to which blood pressure and child’s 16 BMI contributed the most. No socioeconomic gradient was observed in other arterial and 17 cardiac measurements. 18 Conclusion: Socioeconomic inequalities in blood pressure are already present in childhood. 19 Higher fractional shortening among children from low socioeconomic families might be a 20 first cardiac adaptation to higher blood pressure and higher BMI. Interventions should be 21 aimed at lowering child BMI and increasing physical activity among children from low 22 socioeconomic families. 3 23 Keywords: Maternal educational level, blood pressure, cardiac structures, cardiac function, 24 arterial stiffness, childhood 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 4 42 Introduction 43 Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in most western parts of the world. 44 Low socioeconomic position (SEP) has been recognized as a marked risk factor in the 45 occurrence of CVD among adults (1, 2). A better understanding of the origins and underlying 46 mechanisms of socioeconomic inequalities in CVD is essential to develop effective strategies 47 aimed at preventing or reducing these inequalities. Growing evidence suggest that CVD 48 inequalities arise already in childhood, since several CVD risk factors including, low birth 49 weight, short gestational age, physical inactivity, childhood obesity and familial hypertension, 50 affect children from low socioeconomic families more frequently (3-5). These risk factors 51 may cause inequalities in blood pressure levels in childhood, and may track into adulthood (6). 52 Indeed, a recent study showed socioeconomic inequalities in blood pressure to appear at the 53 age of 5-6 years old already, mediated by known CVD risk factors including birth weight, 54 childhood BMI and maternal BMI (7). 55 Alterations in arterial and cardiac structures such as aortic stiffness, aortic root size, left atrial 56 and left ventricular enlargement, contribute to the risk of CVD among adults (8-11). In adults, 57 it has been shown previously that a low level of education was associated with left ventricular 58 hypertrophy, left ventricular dilatation and cardiac dysfunction (12). Factors recognized to 59 influence these structures include elevated blood pressure levels and obesity (12-15). These 60 factors are more common in children from low SEP families and were also found to cause a 61 higher left ventricular mass in childhood already (16, 17). However, no previous study 62 examined the socioeconomic gradient in early structural changes of the heart among children. 63 Therefore, to improve the understanding of the origins and underlying mechanisms of CVD 64 inequalities, we investigated in a population-based, prospective cohort study, the association 65 between maternal educational level and blood pressure levels, arterial stiffness and cardiac 5 66 structures and function at the age of 6 years. Furthermore, we examined whether adiposity 67 measures, lifestyle-related determinants and birth characteristics could explain these 68 associations. 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 6 85 Methods 86 Study design 87 This study is embedded within the Generation R Study, a population-based prospective cohort 88 study from early pregnancy onwards described in detail elsewhere (18). Enrolment was aimed 89 at early pregnancy, but was allowed until the birth of the child. All children were born 90 between April 2002 and January 2006 and form a prenatally enrolled birth-cohort that is 91 currently being followed-up until young adulthood. The study was conducted in accordance 92 with the guidelines proposed in the World Medical Association of Helsinki and has been 93 approved by the Medical Ethical Committee of the Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre 94 Rotterdam. Written consent was obtained from all participating parents (19). 95 Study group 96 In total, 8305 children still participate in the study from the age of 5 years (18). The 97 participating children and their mothers were invited to a well-equipped and dedicated 98 research center in the Erasmus Medical Center - Sophia Children’s Hospital between March 99 2008 and January 2012. Measurements were focused on several health outcomes including 100 body composition, obesity, heart and vascular development and behaviour and cognition (18). 101 In total, 6690 children visited the research center. Mothers of children who didn’t visit the 102 research center had a lower educational level, more frequently smoked during pregnancy 103 (p<0.001) and fewer of them gave breastfeeding (p=0.001) as compared to mothers of 104 children who visited the research center. No differences were found in other characteristics 105 between these groups (Supplementary Table S1). We excluded twins (n=167) and participants 106 who lacked information on maternal educational level (n=594) and on cardiovascular 107 measurements (n=50). Furthermore, children with echocardiographic evidence of congenital 7 108 heart disease or kidney disease were excluded (n=36), leaving a study population of 5843 109 children (Supplementary Figure S1). 110 Maternal educational level 111 Our indicator of SEP was educational level of the mother. Level of maternal education was 112 established using questionnaires at enrollment. The Dutch Standard Classification of 113 Education was used to categorize 4 subsequent levels of education: 1. high (university degree), 114 2. mid-high (higher vocational training, Bachelor’s degree), 3. mid-low (>3 years general 115 secondary school, intermediate vocational training) and 4. low (no education, primary school, 116 lower vocational training, intermediate general school, or 3 years or less general secondary 117 school) (20). 118 Child cardiovascular structures and function 119 We measured blood pressure with the child in supine position quietly awake. Systolic and 120 diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP) was measured at the right brachial artery, four times 121 with one minute intervals, using the validated automatic sphygmanometer Datascope Accutor 122 Plus TM (Paramus, NJ, USA) (21). A cuff was selected with a cuff width approximately 40% 123 of the arm circumference and long enough to cover 90% of the arm circumference. More than 124 90% of the children who visited the research center had four successful blood pressure 125 measurements available. SBP and DBP were determined by excluding the first measurement 126 and averaging the other measurements. 127 Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity, the reference method to assess aortic stiffness (11), was 128 assessed using the automatic Complior device (Complior; Artech Medical, Pantin, France) 129 with participants in supine position. The distance between the recording sites at the carotid 130 (proximal) and femoral (distal) artery was measured over the surface of the body to the 8 131 nearest centimeter. Through piezoelectric sensors placed on the skin, the device collected 132 signals to assess the time delay between the pressure upstrokes in the carotid artery and the 133 femoral artery. Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity was calculated as the ratio of the distance 134 travelled by the pulse wave and the time delay between the feet of the carotid and femoral 135 pressure waveforms, as expressed in meters per second (22). To cover a complete respiratory 136 cycle, the mean of at least 10 consecutive pressure waveforms was used in the analyses. 137 Recently, it has been shown that pulse wave velocity can be measured reliably, with good 138 reproducibility in a large pediatric population-based cohort (23). 139 Two-dimensional M-mode echocardiographic measurements were performed using the ATL- 140 Philips Model HDI 5000 (Seattle, WA, USA) or the Logiq E9 (GE Medical Systems, 141 Wauwatosa, WI, USA) devices. The children were examined in a quiet room with the child 142 awake in supine position. Missing echocardiograms were mainly due to restlessness of the 143 child or unavailability of equipment or sonographer. Left atrial diameter, interventricular end- 144 diastolic septal thickness (IVSTD), left ventricular end-diastolic diameter (LVEDD), left 145 ventricular end-diastolic posterior wall thickness (LVPWTD), interventricular end-systolic 146 septal thickness, left ventricular end-systolic diameter, left ventricular end-systolic posterior 147 wall thickness, aortic root diameter, and fractional shortening were measured using methods 148 recommended by the American Society of Echocardiography (24). Left ventricular mass (LV 149 mass) was computed using the formula derived by Devereux et al (25):LV mass = 0.80 × 150 1.04((IVSTD + LVEDD + LVPWTD)3 − (LVEDD) 3)+ 0.6. To assess reproducibility of 151 ultrasound measurements, the intraobserver and interobserver intraclass correlation 152 coefficients were calculated previously for left atrial diameter, aortic root diameter, IVSTD, 153 LVEDD and LVPWTD in 28 subjects (median age 7.5 years, interquartile range 3.0-11.0) and 154 varied between 0.91 to 0.99 and 0.78 to 0.96, respectively (26). 9 155 Explanatory variables 156 The following factors were considered to be potential explanatory factors in the pathway 157 between SEP and blood pressure, cardiovascular structures and function. These were chosen 158 based on previous literature (7, 27-30). 159 Maternal characteristics 160 Information on pre-pregnancy weight, pre-pregnancy hypertension (yes, no) and smoking 161 during pregnancy (no, until confirmed pregnancy and continued during pregnancy) and 162 financial difficulties, as indicator of family stress, was obtained by questionnaires. Also, 163 another measurement of family stress was assessed with the family assessment device score at 164 age 5. A higher score reflects more ‘stress’. Information on pregnancy-induced hypertension 165 and preeclampsia was obtained from medical records. Women suspected of pregnancy 166 hypertensive complications, based on these records, were crosschecked with the original 167 hospital charts. Details of these procedures have been described elsewhere (31). Maternal 168 height was measured during visits at our research center. On the basis of height and pre- 169 pregnancy weight, we calculated pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) (weight/height2). 170 Birth characteristics 171 Birth weight and gestational age at birth were obtained from midwife and hospital registries. 172 Information on breastfeeding during infancy (ever/never) was obtained by questionnaires. 173 Child characteristics 174 Weight of the child was measured while wearing lightweight clothes and without shoes by 175 using a mechanical personal scale (SECA), and height was measured by a Harpenden 176 stadiometer (Holtain Limited) in standing position, which were both calibrated on a regular 10 177 basis. BMI was calculated using the formula; weight (kg) / height (m)2. Standard-deviation 178 scores (SDS) adjusted for age and gender were constructed for these growth measurements 179 (32). Watching television (< 2 hours/day, ≥ 2 hours/day), as indicator of sedentary behaviour, 180 and playing sports (yes/no), as indicator of physical activity, were obtained from 181 questionnaires at the age of 5 years. 182 Confounding variables 183 Gender and date of birth of the child were obtained from midwife and hospital registries. 184 Ethnicity (Dutch, other western, non-western) was obtained from the first questionnaire at 185 enrollment in the study. These factors were considered as potential confounding factors. 186 Statistical analyses 187 First, univariate associations of maternal educational level to all covariates, blood pressure, 188 carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity, cardiac structures and function were explored using Chi- 189 square tests and ANOVAs. Second, we assessed the association of maternal educational level 190 with blood pressure levels, carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity, cardiac structures and 191 function using linear regression models adjusted for the potential confounders (model 1). To 192 evaluate the mediating effects of all potential explanatory factors Baron and Kenny’s causal 193 step approach was used (33). Only those factors that were significantly associated with the 194 outcome (independent of maternal educational level; data available upon request) and 195 unequally distributed across SEP groups (Table 1) were added separately to model 1 (33). To 196 assess their mediating effects, the corresponding percentages of attenuation of effect estimates 197 were calculated by comparing differences of model 1 with the adjusted ones (100 x (B model 1 – 198 B model 1 with 199 level and all the explanatory factors assessed the joint effects of the explanatory factors. The explanatory factor) / (B model 1 )). Finally, a full model containing maternal educational 11 200 explanatory mechanisms were investigated only for outcomes (blood pressure, pulse wave 201 velocity, cardiac structures and function) that differed by maternal educational level after 202 adjustment for confounders (model 1). Interaction terms between maternal educational level 203 and child’s sex on all the outcomes were not significant (p>0.1); therefore analyses were not 204 stratified for sex. Multiple imputation was used to deal with the missing values in the 205 covariates. Five imputed datasets were created and analysed together. A 95% confidence 206 interval (CI) was calculated around the percentage attenuation using a bootstrap method with 207 1000 re-samplings per imputed dataset in the statistical program R (34). All the other 208 statistical analyses were performed using Statistical Package of Social Science (SPSS) version 209 20.0 for Windows (SPSS Inc, Chicago, IL, USA). 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 12 220 Results 221 222 Table 1 shows the characteristics of the study population. Of all participating children 22.4% 223 (n= 1308) had mothers with a low educational level and 25.3% (n=1483) of the mothers were 224 high educated. Compared with mothers with a high education, those with a low education had 225 a higher pre-pregnancy BMI, suffered more frequently from pre-pregnancy hypertension, had 226 more financial difficulties and a higher family assessment device score (p<0.001), indicating 227 more stress within their families, fewer of them gave breastfeeding, and they more frequently 228 smoked during pregnancy (p=0.002). Their children were on average lighter at birth and had 229 a shorter gestational duration (p<0.001). Mothers with a high education were more frequently 230 Dutch, while mothers with a low education had more frequently a non-western ethnic 231 background (p<0.001). Children of low educated mothers less frequently played sports, 232 watched more frequently ≥ 2 hours television per day and were heavier as compared with 233 children of high educated mothers (p<0.001). Mean systolic (SBP) and diastolic blood 234 pressure (DBP) levels (p<0.001) and carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (p=0.02) were 235 negatively associated with level of education. Also, left atrial diameter (p<0.001) and left 236 ventricular mass (p=0.003) differed according to educational level (Table 1). 237 Multivariable linear regression analyses adjusted for the potential confounders showed that 238 the lower the education of the mother, the higher the systolic and diastolic blood pressure of 239 their children (p for trend <0.001) (Table 2). No consistent associations of maternal education 240 were observed with carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity, aortic root diameter, left atrial 241 diameter, and left ventricular mass. Fractional shortening was negatively associated with 242 maternal educational level (p for trend 0.008). There was no interaction between ethnicity and 243 maternal education on these outcomes (p > 0.05). 13 244 Maternal pre-pregnancy BMI, maternal pre-pregnancy hypertension, gestational age, and the 245 child’s height and BMI were related both to maternal educational level and SBP. The selected 246 explanatory factors for DBP included maternal pre-pregnancy hypertension, birth weight, 247 watching television, playing sports, and the child’s height and BMI. Birth weight, child’s 248 BMI, SBP and DBP were the selected explanatory factors in the association between maternal 249 education and fractional shortening. For each selected factor, an interaction with maternal 250 education was tested for significance, none of them were significant (p > 0.05). 251 Regarding the proportion of explanation by each risk factor (Table 3 and Table 4), the child’s 252 BMI was the most important contributor to the association of maternal education to SBP in 253 the mid-low and low educational subgroup (15% attenuation (95% CI: -29% to -7%) and 29% 254 (95% CI: -42% to -20%) ). Secondly, maternal pre-pregnancy BMI contributed to the 255 association between maternal education and SBP accounting for 11% (95% CI: -22% to -6%) 256 and 12% (95% CI: -18% to -7%) respectively. Overall, 12% (95% CI: -26% to 0.3%) and 257 24% (95% CI: -36% to -14%) of the association of maternal education and SBP was 258 explained for mid-low and low education by including the explanatory factors (Table 3). For 259 DBP, the child’s BMI and playing sports were the most contributing factors in the association 260 between maternal education and DBP, explaining 8% (95% CI: -14% to -3%) and 7% (95% 261 CI: -13% to -3%) in the lowest educational subgroup. The overall explanation was 12% (95% 262 CI: -47% to -3%), 16% (95% CI: -30% to -8%) and 21% (95% CI: -35% to -12%) in the mid- 263 high, mid-low and low educational subgroup respectively (Table 4). For both SBP and DBP 264 the socioeconomic differences remained significant after including all the explanatory factors 265 (Table 3 and Table 4). Complete elimination of the association of mid-low and low education 266 with fractional shortening was observed after individual adjustment for BMI, SBP and DBP. 14 267 SBP was the most contributing factor, explaining 27% (95% CI: -142% to 25%) and 42% 268 (95% CI: -159% to -12%) respectively (Table 5). 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 15 286 Discussion 287 This study shows that socioeconomic inequalities in adult CVD may have their origins in 288 childhood. We found socioeconomic inequalities in systolic and diastolic blood pressure to 289 occur already at the age of 6 years. Furthermore, a positive association was found between 290 maternal education and fractional shortening, which was explained by higher blood pressure 291 levels and a higher BMI among children of lower educated mothers. We did not find evidence 292 for socioeconomic inequalities in carotid- femoral pulse wave velocity, aortic root diameter, 293 left atrial diameter, and left ventricular mass at the age of 6 years. 294 Methodological considerations 295 The strengths of this study are the prospective population-based design and the availability of 296 many important covariates that may explain the association between maternal education, 297 blood pressure levels, and cardiac structures and function. In addition, we had a large sample 298 size of 5843 participants and the availability of several cardiovascular measurements in most 299 of these children. 300 To various extents, our results may have been influenced by the following limitations. We 301 used maternal educational level as indicator of SEP. Maternal education may reflect general 302 and health-related knowledge, health behavior, health literacy and problem-solving skills (35, 303 36). Furthermore, it has been shown that education is the strongest and most consistent 304 socioeconomic predictor of cardiovascular risk factors (37). It is less clear to what extent it 305 captures the material and financial aspects of the household. We therefore repeated the 306 analyses using household income level as determinant, and we found comparable results with 307 the highest SBP and DBP and the highest fractional shortening in the lowest income group 308 (Supplementary Table S2). Information on various covariates in this study was self-reported, 16 309 which may have resulted in underreporting of certain adverse lifestyle related determinants. In 310 our blood pressure measurements, we were not able to account for circadian rhythm. Yet, 311 while this may have resulted in random error, it seems less likely that bias varied 312 systematically across socioeconomic groups. Although the participation rate in The 313 Generation R Study was relatively high (61%), there was some selection towards a relatively 314 highly educated and more healthy study population (38). Non-participation would have led to 315 selection bias if the associations of maternal educational level with the outcome differed 316 between participants and non-participants. Previous research showed that this bias is minimal 317 (39, 40). However, it cannot be ruled out completely. Finally, unmeasured factors related to 318 both SEP and blood pressure, such as salt intake and psychosocial factors, might explain some 319 of the remaining effect of SEP on blood pressure. Sleep patterns may also explain some of the 320 remaining effect, since this has been associated with cardiovascular health in previous studies 321 (41). 322 Maternal education, blood pressure and cardiac structures and function 323 Previous literature concerning the association between socioeconomic circumstances and 324 blood pressure in childhood is conflicting (7, 42). This might be due to the use of different 325 study designs and different study populations. In line with previous literature we found BMI 326 to be the factor contributing most to the association between maternal education and blood 327 pressure (7). Obesity may cause disturbances in autonomic function, insulin resistance and 328 abnormalities in vascular structure and functions, which in turn may cause elevated blood 329 pressure levels (43). Maternal pre-pregnancy BMI was also an important explanation of the 330 socioeconomic gradient in SBP. Maternal BMI and a child’s BMI are correlated; the effect of 331 maternal BMI may act for an important part through its effect on the child’s BMI. This is 332 supported by our findings which showed that after adjustment for child’s BMI and maternal 17 333 BMI, only child’s BMI remained significant (data not shown). A novel finding of this study is 334 that indicators of sedentary behavior and physical activity, including watching television and 335 playing sports, mediate the association between maternal education on DBP. Although these 336 effects may pass through the effects of the child’s BMI on DBP, its significant association in 337 the fully adjusted model suggests that there is probably also an independent effect of physical 338 activity on DBP, which explains the socioeconomic inequalities in DBP. This is supported by 339 a recent study of Knowles et al. who found higher physical activity to be associated with 340 lower DBP levels among 5-7 year old children, independent of BMI and other markers of 341 adiposity (44). These findings suggest that intervention should be aimed at increasing 342 physical activity, especially among children with a lower SEP. 343 Although children from low SEP families had higher BP levels and a higher BMI which is 344 previously shown to be associated with larger left ventricular mass and atrial enlargement 345 (12-15), we did not find a socioeconomic gradient in cardiac structures at the age of 6 years. 346 We found, however, left ventricular mass to be lower in the mid-high and the mid-low 347 educational subgroup as compared to the high educational subgroup. The direction of the 348 association was not entirely equal to what was expected. Also, no socioeconomic gradient 349 was observed and therefore commonly used cardiovascular risk factors explaining 350 socioeconomic inequalities are not likely to be an explanation. Future research is necessary to 351 replicate these findings. Another remarkable finding was the higher fractional shortening 352 among children with mid-low and low educated mothers. One explanation might be that these 353 children experience more stress during the echocardiographic assessment due to a lower lack 354 of parental support because they, as well as their parents, are more impressed by the 355 measurement setting, resulting in a higher fractional shortening. However, stress would also 356 have increased their heart rate and adjustment for heart rate would then have explained, at 18 357 least to some extent, the association between maternal education and fractional shortening. In 358 our study, this explanation is less likely since heart rate, as indicator of stress, was not 359 associated with fractional shortening. Since an increased fractional shortening was explained 360 by higher blood pressure levels and a higher BMI, another explanation might be that it is the 361 first indication of cardiac adaptation to higher blood pressure levels and higher BMI among 362 low SEP children. However, in a later stage higher blood pressure levels and a higher BMI 363 result in alterations of cardiac structures such as left ventricular and left atrial enlargement 364 (45) , which are associated with a lower fractional shortening. Thus our findings that lower 365 education leads to a higher fractional shortening at the age of 6 are not fully understood and a 366 change finding can also not be excluded. Confirmation in future studies is therefore highly 367 recommended and replication would suggest that cardiac structural alterations can be 368 prevented at this age by lowering blood pressure levels and body weight, especially among 369 children from low socioeconomic families. 370 Conclusion 371 Our study adds to the small body of literature concerning socioeconomic differences in blood 372 pressure and shows that inequalities arise in early childhood which were mainly explained by 373 socio-economic inequalities in the child’s BMI and physical activity. No differences in 374 arterial stiffness or cardiac structures were observed per educational subgroup. However, a 375 socioeconomic gradient in fractional shortening was observed, with children from low SEP 376 families having a higher fractional shortening as compared to children from high SEP families. 377 This might be a first cardiac adaptation to a higher blood pressure and a higher BMI. The 378 results require careful interpretation since the associations were relatively small and the 379 clinical importance not yet fully understood. 19 Supplementary information is available at http://www.oup.com/ajh. Acknowledgements The Generation R Study is conducted by the Erasmus Medical Centre in close collaboration with the Erasmus University Rotterdam, School of Law and Faculty of Social Sciences, the Municipal Health Service Rotterdam area, Rotterdam, the Rotterdam Homecare Foundation, Rotterdam, and the Stichting Trombosedienst & Artsenlaboratorium Rijnmond (STAR), Rotterdam. We gratefully acknowledge the contribution of general practitioners, hospitals, midwives and pharmacies in Rotterdam. We also thank Wim Helbing for his valuable comments on an earlier draft of this manuscript. 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