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MEETING OF THE STATISTICS ADVISORY COMMITTEE
March 7th 2012
NISRA Board Room, McAuley House
In attendance
Mr Philip McDonagh
Mr Andrew Donnan
Mrs Esther Ervin
Dr Adele Marshall
Mr Alvin McKinley
Mr Darren McKinstry
Dr Norman Caven
Dr James Gillan
Mr Brian Green
Mr Michael MacNeill
Dr David Marshall
Dr Malcolm Megaw
Dr Kevin Sweeney
Mrs Marie Webb
Mrs Eilish Murtagh
NISRA
NISRA
NISRA
NISRA (OFMdFM)
NISRA
NISRA (Department of Agriculture)
NISRA
NISRA, Secretary
NISRA, Secretariat
Apologies
Dr Michael Anyadyke-Danes
Professor David Jones
Dr Tracy Power
Item
Subject
No.
1.
Welcome and apologies
Action
The Chair welcomed members. There were apologies from Dr
Anyadyke-Danes, Professor David Jones and Dr Tracy Power.
2.
Minutes and Matters arising.
The Committee agreed the minutes of the previous meeting
(September 2012). The matters arising from the minutes were as
follows:
The first item was an update on the extension to the terms of office of
the five members of the Committee whose terms of office were due to
expire in April 2012. All five members have agreed to extend their
terms of office and the next stage of the process would be to ask the
Minister to endorse the extension and announce the extensions in a
Press release. The five members will be asked to provide details for
the Press Release and the secretary will contact them directly about
this.
ACTION: Secretary
to arrange for an
extension to
members terms of
office.
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The second matter arising related to John Bradley’s query on
accessing sub regional statistics on Border areas. The Chair has
written to Mr Bradley detailing what was being done in this area and
the Centre of Cross Border studies had subsequently replied - they
were pleased that the issues were being addressed.
The third matter arising related to details of the Quality Improvement
Fund (QIF) seminar – these details were circulated to members on
20th September 2011.
The final matter was that Dr Caven was to invite Dr Malcolm Megaw
of Department of Agriculture to talk to the committee on Agriculture
Statistics. Dr Megaw will present item 3 on today’s Agenda.
3.
Agriculture Statistics
The Chair welcomed Dr Megaw to the meeting. Dr Megaw gave a
presentation to the committee which covered details on the structure
of the Agriculture statistics branch and an overview of the Statistics
which were collected/published by his branch. These included the
Farm Census, the European Union Farm Structure Survey, the Farm
Business Survey and other Miscellaneous surveys. He also gave
details of the methods of dissemination such as DARD website,
NINIS and DARDSTAT which is a discussion forum for Industry and
interested parties.
Mrs Ervin thanked Dr Megaw for his presentation and mentioned that
it was interesting as a member representing farmers to see what
relevance surveys have for the farming community. She asked
specifically if there were details on how Rural Development money
was spent. Dr Megaw was not aware of any specific research but
mentioned that other research was carried out by AFBI and Queens
University.
In answer to a question from Mr McDonagh, Dr Megaw explained that
there was a wide range of representation on the Statistics User
Forum including the Ulster Farmers’ Union, researchers, Bankers and
members of the form fillers association which was composed of
people who assisted farmers filling out the single farm payment
application. The forum was chaired by Mr Robert Beatty and the
feedback from the forum was largely positive.
Mr Mc Donagh thanked Dr Megaw for his presentation.
4.
Census Update
Mr Brian Green updated the Committee with progress on the 2011
Census. He explained that the quality assurance of the 2011 census
data was a priority and the strategy for quality assurance was
published on the NISRA website and broadly aligns with the
methodology being deployed by the other UK Census Offices. The
priority tasks include developing SAS routines to extract the 2011
data required for Quality assurance and building the data
visualisation system which will present the results of the QA work.
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With regard to the production of outputs, the majority of tables will be
harmonised across the UK. User consultation events were held in
Belfast, Derry and Enniskillen at the end of January/early February
and these were well attended. The first release was scheduled for
summer 2012 for both ONS and NISRA and details will be sent to the
committee at this time. An output prospectus will be published early
April detailing what will be available in the various planned releases
along with their timings
ACTION:Details of
Census results to
be circulated in
Summer 2012
Mr Green also updated the committee with the UK Statistics Authority
assessment of the Census. The Assessment would be done in 3
phases, the first two of which have been completed. The report on
the third phase will be published in 2013 and will examine the actual
outputs.
Mr McDonagh thanked Mr Green and noted that the results seemed
quite accelerated compared to last time. Dr Caven replied that the
first release will be slightly accelerated compared with the 2001
Census and Mr Green added that by the second release it would be
ahead of 2001.
Dr Adele Marshall advised the meeting that Mr Robert Beatty would
be giving a talk on the Census to the RSS at 4pm on Wednesday 14th
March 2012.
5.
LFS Religion Report
Mr McDonagh asked Mr MacNeill to update the Committee on the
LFS Religion Report. Mr MacNeill explained that the report was a
National Statistics publication and the UK Statistics Authority was due
to assess the report in May 2012. It was in this context that he was
asking the Committee for their views.
He explained that the report covered labour market participation by
religion and was published annually (November/December) by
OFMdFM. It was carried out by Central Survey Unit of NISRA and
was a key source of data on UK Labour Market participation. Users
were consulted on content and layout in 2001/05 and as a result it
was changed from a mainly tabular format – the structure of the
report has remained the same since then.
Mr McDonagh thanked Mr MacNeill and remarked that it was a very
detailed report and asked whether there was a user group. Mr
MacNeill explained that there was no user group as yet but that one
was planned once they had identified their users.
Mr McKinstry explained that the Equality Commission found the
report very useful but asked whether figures on Religion by
Qualification by Geography could become available. Mr McKinstry
will liase directly with Mr MacNeill about this.
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6.
Update on NI Survey of people with Activity Limitations and
Disabilities (NISALD),
The chair explained that this item was tabled due to a request from
Mr Darren McKinstry for an update on plans for updating disability
statistics (and NISALD in particular) and asked Dr Sweeney to
update the Committee.
Dr Sweeney gave a presentation to the Committee on the
background to the survey and the detailed work that was carried out
to produce the prevalence rates in 2007. He explained that after this,
detailed analysis on prevalence was produced for the PSI subgroup
and subsequently a report was prepared for OFMdFM in December
2009. A report was also produced for the Older People’s Advocate.
He explained that one of the difficulties has been the development of
a Severity Index and a QIF bid in 2010 to assist in this work was
unsuccessful. In the meantime ONS has launched a Lifetime
Opportunities Survey and is considering adopting the NISRA
methodology for the Severity Index. A review of the methodology and
recommendations was due to be published by ONS in August 2011
but was postponed until Spring/Summer 2012. It was felt that it would
be advisable to await the outcome of the review before further
NISALD figures are published. The next round of data published
would also be placed in the Archive.
Mr McKinstry thanked Dr Sweeney for his update. He explained that
his interest lay in the plans for consultation by OFMdFM on a
Disability Strategy for NI and asked whether the ONS Lifetimes
Survey would extend to NI. Dr Sweeney said this hadn’t been
considered because we had our own survey. In answer to a comment
from Mr Mc Kinley about the definition of disability Dr Sweeney
explained that we are turning away from a medical model of disability
to one of ‘does it limit your activities’.
In answer to a question from the chair about OFMdFM’s input to the
strategy Mr MacNeill explained that policy colleagues in the
Department are dealing with this but that he would be looking at
information needs as part of the OFMdFM consultation.
8.
Beyond 2011 Update
Dr Marshall gave a short update to the Committee on future SocioDemographic statistics after the 2011 Census (Beyond 2011). He
explained that consideration was currently being given to the
production of social statistics after the 2011 Census. The issue had a
wide focus and issues ranged from the use of administrative systems
(which would require legislative change) to the use of statistical
modelling. Dr Marshall explained that given the lead time required to
carry out the Census that a decision would need to be taken by
2014/15. It is planned to carry out a NI consultation on the issue in
12 to 18 months to look at the options and to assess user’s views.
Mr McKinstry added that the Equality Commission had responded to
the GB consultation in respect of NI sample size. He was concerned
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that ONS may focus on using sample surveys and that this would
create problems for NI in terms of small sample size. Dr Sweeney
agreed that there was a danger of overburdening the population and
that response rates could be adversely affected.
Discussion also took place about the situation in the Republic of
Ireland. Dr Marshall explained that a Census is carried out in ROI
every 5 years and as far as he was aware they are planning to run
one in 2016
Dr Marshall agreed that there were a lot of options to be considered
and that he would bring these back to the Committee in 12 months
when the options became clearer. Mr McDonagh thanked Dr Marshall
and agreed that he update the Committee at a future meeting.
9.
Official Statistics Update
The chair called on Dr Caven to update the committee on Official
Statistics issues.
Dr Caven outlined some changes to the UK Statistics Authority – Sir
Michael Scholar has stepped down as Chair and has been replaced
by Andrew Dilnot, an economist and academic. Dr Caven anticipated
that he may meet with the Finance Minister and the DFP Committee
and it might be useful to invite Mr Dilnot to meet with the Committee
at a future date. In addition Dr Caven also advised the Committee of
the death in December 2011 of Sir Roger Jowell, the deputy chair.
The other deputy chair, Lord Rowe-Beddoe is due to step down in the
summer so there will be two new appointments to the Authority over
the coming months.
The final round of assessments is due to finish in summer 2012 and it
is anticipated that the Authority may move to a more audit/risk based
approach focussing on high profile statistics. The Authority would
also continue to produce monitoring reports and monitoring briefs.
Dr Caven also updated the committee on the Official Statistics Order
(Northern Ireland) 2012. This Order, which brings a number of Arms
Length bodies into the scope of Official Statistics, was affirmed by the
Assembly on 21st February 2012 and comes into operation on 1st
April 2012. A total of 14 bodies are listed as producers of Official
statistics in the Order – 4 of these are criminal justice bodies which
were previously included in the Cabinet Office Order and the
remaining 10 are new producers. Each of these new bodies has
appointed a Lead Official for Statistics to take forward the
implementation of OS principles and practices within the
organisation. NISRA is providing support and training to these
officials.
10.
Economic and Labour Market Statistics – Update Paper
Dr Gillan updated the committee on the latest developments in
Economic and Labour Market statistics as outlined in Paper SAC
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17/2011. The first item he covered was the bi-ennial Economic and
Labour statistics (ELMS) User group. He circulated the minutes (SAC
04/12) of the last meeting (November 2011) for members
consideration and explained that there were 13 users at this meeting
– of these 5 were non government and he would like to increase this
number in future meetings.
He then explained that the NI results for the EU wide Access to
Finance Survey (2007 -2010) were published on 28th October 2011.
These results were welcomed by economists because they enabled
comparisons to be made between NI businesses and those within the
UK and Republic of Ireland in terms of their access to different types
of finance, perceived difficulties and future plans. Although the survey
results received widespread press coverage and interest from policy
makers, there have been no approaches to re-run the survey this
year.
ACTION: Dr Gillan
to update the
Committee on any
further plans on the
Access to Finance
Survey.
Dr Gillan also updated the committee on the progress NISRA had
made on increasing the ABI sample size and improving the measure
of Northern Ireland Exports in line with users’ needs. The new results
will be more precise and provide better estimates at industry and
DCA level. The increase in sample size would have the effect of
increasing compliance costs to business (from 402K to c.666K) and
Dr Gillan invited the Committee’s views on this. Mr McKinley
remarked that the information is needed to grow the economy and Mr
McDonagh added that it was important that the benefits of increased
sample size were recognised
Dr Gillan explained that it had not been possible to produce the
planned methodology paper (as detailed to the members at the last
committee meeting) containing Q2 2011 results for the Composite
Index. This was because NISRA further wished to investigate the
effects of sample attrition on the IOS and IOP. This work should be
carried out in July and Dr Gillan will update the committee on the
Composite Index in more detail at the next meeting.
ACTION: Dr Gillan
to update the
Committee on the
Composite Index at
than next meeting.
Dr Gillan also asked members to note progress on the Integrated
Business Survey System (IBSS). On 5th December 2011 the QES
successfully went live on the new IBSS with a newly redesigned
Form and the option for all private sector firms to respond using
Telephone Data Entry (TDE) instead of paper forms. .About 20%
(900) of firms used TDE to return their data. Mr McDonagh remarked
that this was quite a large number. Dr Gillan also added that ONS
had made TDE compulsory and this was something which might be
considered at later date. Further phases of the project would follow in
the next few months and surveys will continue to migrate to the live
system over the next year.
Mr McDonagh thanked Dr Gillan for his input.
11
AOB
Dr Caven advised the Committee that Professor Richard Toal of the
University of Sussex would give a presentation on Greenhouse
Gases – Input/Output Analysis at the SSIS NI meeting in Belfast on
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31st May 2012.
Dr Caven explained that the NINIS platform would be used for
Census results and it would be useful to have a short presentation on
this at the September meeting.
The chair asked members for their views on how the meeting went.
Mrs Ervin said that she had found the first item on Agriculture
Statistics very useful as it was interesting to find out more on how the
statistics are collected and the use to which they were being put. Mr
McKinley agreed that it was useful to see the policy context behind
the figures. Discussion then ensued as to whether it would be useful
to have someone from policy side to talk to the Committee about the
role of statistics in influencing policy. Dr Caven added that in some
GB Departments there was a policy champion whose role was to
evaluate whether policy needs statistical or economic input.
Consideration will be given to have someone speak to the Committee
at a future meeting
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ACTION: Dr
Marshall to provide
demonstration of
NINIS platform at
September
meeting.
ACTION: Dr Caven
to follow up
Date of next meeting/Close
Secretariat to inform members of the date of the next meeting.
Marie Webb
Secretary
March 2012
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