PSYC 6130 One-Way Independent ANOVA Generalizing t-Tests • t-Tests allow us to test hypotheses about differences between two groups or conditions (e.g., treatment and control). • What do we do if we wish to compare multiple groups or conditions simultaneously? • Examples: – Effects of 3 different therapies for autism – Effects of 4 different SSRIs on seratonin re-uptake – Effects of 5 different body orientations on judgement of induced self-motion. PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 2 Reinterpreting the 2-Sample t-Statistic t2 X n 1 X2 2 2 sp2 The denominator sp2 is an estimate of the variance 2 of the population, derived by averaging the variances within the two samples: sp2 1 2 (s1 s22 ) 2 PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 3 Reinterpreting the 2-Sample t-Statistic t2 X n 1 X2 2 2 s 2 p The numerator is also an estimate of the variance 2 of the population, derived from the variance between the sample means. To see this, recall that s X s n s 2 ns X2 For 2 groups, s X2 ( X1 XG )2 ( X 2 XG )2 , where XG 2 1 1 Thus, s X1 ( X1 X 2 ) X 2 ( X1 X 2 ) 2 2 2 2 X 2 1 1 ( X1 X 2 ) ( X 2 X1 ) 2 2 2 1 ( X1 X 2 )2 2 PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 4 1 ( X1 X 2 ) 2 Example X1 X2 -10.2 4.8 -1.8 6.7 15.2 -0.8 -0.4 8.9 12.3 23.1 -7.0 5.2 0.1 -0.1 -7.8 9.1 5.9 0.6 -2.5 -11.1 Mean Std Dev PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 0.4 8.4 5 4.6 2.5 X G 8.8 The F Distribution t2 n X1 X 2 2 2 s 2 p Thus, under the null hypothesis, the numerator and denominator are independent estimates of the same population variance 2. The ratio of 2 independent, unbiased estimates of the same variance follows an F distribution. 0.5 F distribution for 2 groups of size n=13 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 0 2 4 6 6 8 10 Within and Between Variances • Recall that the variance is, by definition, the mean squared deviation of scores from their mean. • Since the numerator of the t2 statistic estimates the variance from the deviations of group means, it is called the mean-square-between MSbet. • Since the denominator of the t2 statistic estimates the variance from the deviations within groups, it is called the mean-square-within MSW. • These definitions allow us to generalize to an arbitrary number of groups. Thus F MSbet MSW PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 7 Generalizing to > 2 Groups F MSbet MSW MSbet MSW n (X i i XG )2 dfbet (n i , where XG 1)si2 dfw PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 8 1 NT all scores Xi 1 NT n X i i Degrees of Freedom • Recall that the sample variance follows a scaled chisquare distribution, parameterized by the degrees of freedom. • Thus the F distribution is a ratio of two chi-square distributions, each with different degrees of freedom. dfbet k 1, where k number of groups. dfW NT k, where NT = total number of subjects over all groups. ni 1 dftot dfbet dfW NT 1 PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 9 Testing Hypotheses F Large values of F suggest that differences between the groups MSbet MSW are inflating the MSbet estimate of 2 reject H0 . 1 F distribution for 3 groups of size n=13 p(F) 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 Fcrit PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 2 4 6 3.32 for .05 (Appendix F) 12 8 10 PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 13 When k=2 • ANOVA will give exactly the same result as two-tailed ttest. • One-tailed tests must be done using t-tests. PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 14 Example From the Canadian Generalized Social Survey, Cycle 6 (1992) PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 15 Example Descriptives During 12 months-Number of contacts: Psychologist N MARRIED WIDOWED SEPARATED OR DIVORCED SINGLE Total PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 6601 1630 1012 2568 11811 16 Mean Std. Deviation 0.185 0.082 0.900 0.620 0.326 2.034 1.023 4.688 4.012 2.811 Reporting Results • A one-way ANOVA demonstrates that frequency of contact with clinical psychologists depends on marital status. Widowed individuals had the least contact (M=0.082). Married individuals (M=0.185) had somewhat more contact. Single (M=0.620) and separated or divorced (M=0.900) had substantially more contact. F(3,11807)=33.3, MSE = 7.8, p<.001. PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 17 Summary Table (SPSS) ANOVA During 12 months-Number of contacts: Psychologist Between Groups Within Groups Total Sum of Squares 783.673 92531.091 93314.764 PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER df 3 11807 11810 Mean Square 261.224 7.837 18 F 33.332 Sig . .000 Interpreting the F Ratio F estimate of treatment effect + between-group estimate of error variance within-group estimate of error variance PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 19 Effect Size and Proportion of Variance Accounted For SSbet Proportion of variance accounted for (sample): SStot 2 PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 20 (Approxiately) Unbiased Effect Size Proportion of variance accounted for (population): 2 PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 21 SSbet (k 1)MSW SStot MSW Reporting Results • A one-way ANOVA demonstrates that frequency of contact with clinical psychologists depends on marital status. Widowed individuals had the least contact (M=0.082). Married individuals (M=0.185) had somewhat more contact. Single (M=0.620) and separated or divorced (M=0.900) had substantially more contact. F(3,11807)=33.3, p<.001. However, the size of the effect was relatively small: 2 PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 22 0.008. Planning a Study: ANOVA and Power X Estimating power for ANOVA: n can be used to plan experiments, relating n, k and (Appendix ncF) .05 : PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 23 Example • You are interested in whether there is a link between PSYC 6130 final grades and the professor teaching the section. • Grades typically have a standard deviation of about 15% • There are typically 3 sections, each with around 12 students. • What is the probability you would pick up an effect if the standard deviation of the mean grade is around 5%? PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 24 Advantages of ANOVA • Avoid inflation in error rate due to multiple comparisons • Can detect an effect of the treatment even when no 2 groups are significantly different. PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 25 6-Step Process for ANOVA 1. State the hypotheses H0 : 1 2 ... n H A : i , j [1,..., n] : i j 2. Select the statistical test and significance level 3. Select the samples and collect the data 4. Find the region of rejection 5. Calculate the test statistic 6. Make the statistical decision PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 26 Sums of Squares Approach F MSbet MSW MSbet MSW SSbet , where SSbet ni ( X i XG )2 dfbet SSW , where SSW (ni 1)si2 dfw NB : SStotal SSbet SSW MStotal MSbet MSW PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 27 ANOVA Assumptions • Independent random sampling • Normal distributions • Homogeneity of variance PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 28 More on Homogeneity of Variance s12 k 2: F (df1, df2 ) 2 s2 Where s1 larger of the 2 std devs k 2: Hartley's Fmax 2 smax 2 smin Problem: sensitive to deviations from normality. Levene's test: Test of Homogeneity of Variances More robust During 12 months-Number of contacts: Psychologist Levene Statistic 115.537 Used by SPSS PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 29 df1 3 df2 11807 Sig . .000 Levene’s Test: Basic Idea 1. Replace each score X1i , X2i ,... with its absolute deviation from the sample mean: d1i | X1i X1 | d2i | X 2i X 2 | 2. Now run an analysis of variance on d1i ,d2i ,... : F MSbet MSW SSbet , where SSbet ni (di dG )2 dfbet SSW MSW , where SSW (ni 1)sdi2 dfw MSbet SPSS reports an F-statistic for Levene’s test • Allows the homogeneity of variance for two or more variables to be tested. PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 30 What to do if Homogeneity of Variance Assumption is Rejected • Some adjustment procedures are available in SPSS (e.g., Welch 1951). • We will not cover the theory behind these adjustments. PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 31 Fixed vs Random Effects • Fixed Effects: interested only in the specified levels of the independent variable (e.g., single/married/divorced/widowed) • Random Effects: interested in a large number of possible levels of the independent variable – randomly sampling only a few of these. e.g., – Does the order of questions on a questionnaire effect the results? – Does the order of stimuli in a psychophysical experiment effect the results? PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 32 Fixed vs Random Effects • One-Way Independent ANOVA calculation is the same for fixed and random effect designs. • Power and effect size calculations differ. • More complex ANOVA designs differ. • We restrict our attention in this course to fixed effect designs. PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 33 Qualitative vs Quantitative Independent Variables • In principle, ANOVA can be applied to either qualitative or quantitative variables. • If IV is quantitative and effect is roughly linear, usually have more power using regression (only using up 2 degrees of freedom, instead of k). • If effect is complex (e.g., non-monotonic): – Use a higher-order regression model (e.g., quadratic) – Use ANOVA (makes no smoothness assumptions) PSYC 6130, PROF. J. ELDER 34