FCD CWI FCD CWI CHILD WELL-BEING IN THE UNITED STATES: Recent Trends and Some International Comparisons Using the Child and Youth Well-Being Index (CWI) Kenneth C. Land*, Vicki L. Lamb*, Sarah O. Meadows**, and Hui Zheng* ISCI Conference, Chicago, Illinois June 26, 2007 *Duke University and **Princeton University 1 FCD CWI FCD CWI The Basic Social Indicators Questions • How are we doing? • More specifically, with respect to children, how are our kids (including adolescents and youths) doing? 2 FCD CWI FCD CWI The Basic Social Indicators Questions These questions can be addressed by comparisons: to goals or other externally established standards, to past historical values, or to other contemporaneous units (e.g., comparisons among subpopulations, states, regions, countries). The CWI uses all three points of comparison. 3 FCD CWI FCD CWI Three Publications on the CWI • Land, Kenneth C. Vicki L. Lamb, and Sarah Kahler Mustillo 2001 “Child and Youth Well-Being in the United States, 1975-1998: Some Findings from a New Index,” Social Indicators Research, 56, (December):241-320. • Land, Kenneth C. Vicki L. Lamb, Sarah O. Meadows, and Ashley Taylor 2007 “Measuring Trends in Child WellBeing: An Evidence-Based Approach,” Social Indicators Research, 80:105-132. • Hagerty, Michael R. and Kenneth C. Land 2007 “Constructing Summary Indices of Quality of Life: A Model for the Effect of Heterogeneous Importance Weights,” Sociological Methods and Research, 4 35(May):455-496. FCD CWI FCD CWI What is the CWI? • A composite measure of trends over time in the quality of life, or well-being, of America’s children and young people. • It consists of several interrelated summary or composite indices of annual time series of 28 social indicators of well-being. 5 FCD CWI FCD CWI The Objectives of the CWI: • To give a sense of the overall direction of change in the well-being of children and youth in the United States as compared to 1975. 6 FCD CWI FCD CWI The CWI is designed to address the following types of questions: • Overall, on average, how did child and youth well-being in the United States change in the last quarter of the 20th century and into the present? • Did it improve or deteriorate, and by how much? • In which domains or areas of social life? 7 FCD CWI FCD CWI • • • • For specific age groups? For particular race/ethnic groups? For each of the sexes? And did race/ethnic group and sex disparities increase or decrease? 8 FCD CWI FCD CWI Methods of Index Construction • Annual time series data (from vital statistics and sample surveys) have been assembled on some 28 national level indicators in seven quality-oflife domains: – – – – – – – Family Economic Well-Being Health Safety/Behavioral Concerns Educational Attainment Community Connectedness Social Relationships (with Family and Peers) Emotional/Spiritual Well-Being 9 FCD CWI FCD CWI • These seven domains have been well-established in over two decades of empirical studies of subjective well-being, including studies of children and youths, by social psychologists and other social scientists. • In this sense, the CWI is an evidence-based measure of trends in averages of the social conditions encountered by children and youths in the United States. 10 FCD CWI FCD CWI Table 1. Twenty-Eight Key National Indicators of Child and Youth Well-Being in the United States. Family Economic Well-Being Domain • Poverty Rate (All Families with Children) • Secure Parental Employment Rate • Median Annual Income (All Families with Children) • Rate of Children with Health Insurance Health Domain • Infant Mortality Rate • Low Birth Weight Rate • Mortality Rate (Ages 1-19) • Rate of Children with Very Good or Excellent Health (as reported by parents) • Rate of Children with Activity Limitations (as reported by parents) • Rate of Overweight Children and Adolescents (Ages 6-19) 11 FCD CWI FCD CWI Table 1, continued Safety/Behavioral Domain • Teenage Birth Rate (Ages 10-17) • Rate of Violent Crime Victimization (Ages 12-19) • Rate of Violent Crime Offenders (Ages 12-17) • Rate of Cigarette Smoking (Grade 12) • Rate of Alcohol Drinking (Grade 12) • Rate of Illicit Drug Use (Grade 12) Educational Attainment Domain • NAEP Reading Test Scores (Ages 9, 13, and 17) • NAEP Mathematics Test Scores (Ages 9, 13, and 17) 12 FCD CWI FCD CWI Table 1, continued Community Connectedness Domain • Rate of Pre-Kindergarten Enrollment (Ages 3-4) • Rate of Persons who have Received a High School Diploma (Ages 18-24) • Rate of Youths Not Working and Not in School (Ages 16-19) • Rate of Persons who have Received a Bachelor’s Degree (Ages 25-29) • Rate of Voting in Presidential Elections (Ages 18-20) 13 FCD CWI FCD CWI Table 1, continued Social Relationships Domain • Rate of Children in Families Headed by a Single Parent • Rate of Children who have Moved within the Last Year (Ages 1-18) Emotional/Spiritual Well-Being Domain • Suicide Rate (Ages 10-19) • Rate of Weekly Religious Attendance (Grade 12) • Percent who report Religion as Being Very Important (Grade 12) Note: Unless otherwise noted, indicators refer to children ages 0-17. 14 FCD CWI FCD CWI • Each of the 28 Key Indicators is indexed by percentage change from the base year, 1975. – That is, subsequent annual observations are computed as percentages of the base year. – Three indicators begin in the mid-1980s and use corresponding base years. • The base year is assigned a value of 100. – The directions of the indicator values are oriented such that a value greater (lesser) than 100 in subsequent years means the social condition measured has improved (deteriorated). 15 FCD CWI FCD CWI • The time series of the 28 indicators are grouped together into the seven domains described above and domain-specific summary well-being indices are constructed. – Within these summary indices, each indicator is equally weighted. • The seven component indices are then combined into the equally-weighted composite Child and Youth Well-being Index (CWI). 16 FCD CWI FCD CWI On Equal Weighting In an article on statistical methodology, Hagerty and Land (2007) consider the general question of how to construct composite, summary indices for a social unit that will be endorsed by a majority of its members. They assume that many social indicators are available to describe the social unit, but individuals disagree about the relative weights to be assigned to each social indicator. The composite index that maximizes agreement among individuals can then be derived, along with conditions under which an index will be endorsed by a majority in the social unit. 17 FCD CWI FCD CWI On Equal Weighting, continued Using both a theoretical analysis of a statistical model to measure the extent of agreement among individuals and computer simulations, Hagerty and Land (2007) show that: • intuition greatly underestimates the extent of agreement among individuals, and • it is often possible to construct a composite index with which most individuals agree (at least in direction). 18 FCD CWI FCD CWI On Equal Weighting, continued In particular, they show that the equal-weighting strategy is privileged in that it minimizes disagreement among all possible individuals’ weights for the indicators. Hagery and Land (2007) demonstrate these propositions by calculating real composite quality-oflife indices from two sample surveys of individuals’ actual importance weights. Some illustrations from Hagerty and Land (2007) follow. 19 FCD CWI FCD CWI 20 FCD CWI FCD CWI 21 FCD CWI FCD CWI 22 FCD CWI FCD CWI Significant Findings of the CWI • The following charts show changes over time in the CWI and its various components. – Overall Composite Index of Child and Youth Well-Being – Domain-Specific Indices 23 FCD CWI FCD CWI Figure 1: Child Well-Being Index, 1975-2005, with Projections for 2006 110 100 95 90 Year 20 05 20 03 20 01 19 99 19 97 19 95 19 93 19 91 19 89 19 87 19 85 19 83 19 81 19 79 19 77 85 19 75 Percent of Base Year 105 24 FCD CWI FCD CWI Figure 2. Domain-Specific Summary Indices, 1975-2005, with Projections for 2006. 150 Family Economic Well-Being Health 140 Safety/Behavioral Concerns Educational Attainment Community Connectedness 130 Social Relationships Emotional/Spiritual Well-Being 110 100 90 80 70 Year 20 05 20 03 20 01 19 99 19 97 19 95 19 93 19 91 19 89 19 87 19 85 19 83 19 81 19 79 19 77 60 19 75 Percent of Base Year 120 25 FCD CWI FCD CWI Figure 1 shows that improvements in the CWI essentially have slowed and stalled in the early years of this first decade of the 21st century. Just as the CWI allowed us be the first to signal that the steady increases in numerous Key Indicators in the period 1994-2002 were indicative not just of isolated trends, but rather of an overall improvement in well-being, the CWI now is telling us that this trend of overall improvement has come to an end. 26 FCD CWI FCD CWI Index Validation • Do changes in the CWI actually indicate anything about trends in the subjective wellbeing of America’s children/youths? • To address this question, Land, Lamb, Meadows, and Taylor (2007) compared trends in the CWI with those of smoothed data on overall life satisfaction for High School Seniors from the Monitoring the Future Study, as shown in the following chart: 27 FCD CWI FCD CWI Figure 3. CWI and Smoothed MTF Life Satisfaction, 1975-2003. 49 48.5 105 100 47.5 47 95 46.5 90 46 Child Well-Being Composite Index 45.5 Monitoring the Future Life Satisfaction Responses- Moving Average 45 85 Year 20 03 20 01 19 99 19 97 19 95 19 93 19 91 19 89 19 87 19 85 19 83 19 81 19 79 44.5 19 77 80 19 75 Child Well-Being Composite Index 48 28 Monitoring the Futire Life Satisfaction Responses-Moving Average 110 FCD CWI FCD CWI But the question remains: How well are America’s children and youth doing in recent years as compared to the children and youth of other nations? 29 FCD CWI FCD CWI International Comparisons of Child and Youth Well-Being • To address this question, we compare U.S. trends in child and youth well-being with those of four other English-speaking counties, specifically: – – – – Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. 30 FCD CWI FCD CWI These nations were chosen for a number of reasons: • all share a common language; • Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the U.S. are former colonies of the United Kingdom; • all five nations are liberal democracies that have representative democratic forms of government; • all five also place considerable emphasis on the use of economic markets for the production and distribution of goods and services; and • because of all the above, all share some common elements of culture. 31 FCD CWI FCD CWI • We assembled data on 19 Key International Indicators of child and youth well-being that were measured around the year 2000. • The 19 Key International Indicators can be classified into 7 domains: Family Economic Well-Being, Social Relationships, Health, Safety and Behavior, Educational Attainment, Community Connectedness, and Emotional Well-Being. 32 FCD CWI FCD CWI • Table 2 presents a “report card” comparison of child and youth well-being by domain for the United States and the four English-speaking countries. The table indicates the measures used within each domain. • The B [W] indicates the rates for the U.S. are better [worse] than for the comparison country. An = means the rates are equal. • A blank cell indicates no country-level Key International Indicator was available. 33 Table 2. Comparison of Child and Youth Well-Being in US and Four English Speaking Countries: Canada, UK, Australia and New Zealand Countries Canada Domains Family Economic Well-Being Poverty Rate: All Children (Age 0-17) Percentage of Working Age Households with Children Without An Employed Parent Social Relationships Percent of All Children Ages 0-17 Living in Single Mother Families Health Low Birth Weight Infant Mortality Child and Youth Mortality (Age 1-19) Overweight (Age 13 and 15) Self rated "poor or fair health" (Age 11, 13 and 15 ) Safety and Behavior Teenage Birth Rate (Age 15-19) Smoking Daily (Age 11, 13, and 15) Drunk Twice or More (Age 11, 13, and 15) Having Used Cannabis (Age 15) Educational Attainment Reading (Age 15) Math (Age 15) Community Connectedness High School Completion (Age 25-34) Not Working or In School (Age 15-19) Bachelor’s Degree (Age 25-34) Preschool Enrollment Rate (Age 3-4) Emotional Well Being Suicide Rate (Age 15-24) Overall Tally Australia 1/2 W B United Kingdom 1/2 W B 0/1 W 1/1 B 0/1 W 0/5 W W W W W 3/4 W B B B 0/2 W W 2/4 = = B B 1/1 B 7/19 1/5 = W W W B 3/4 W B B B 0/2 W W 3/4 B B B W 0/1 W 9/19 0/3 W W W 0/3 W W = 0/1 W 0/1 W 0/2 W W 3/4 B W B B 1/1 B 5/14 0/2 W W 2/3 B 1/2 W B New Zealand 1/2 W B B W 1/1 B 4/12 FCD CWI FCD CWI Trends and Implication of Our International Comparisons: Overall Conclusions: Although no country outscores the United States on all domains of child and youth well-being, our comparison of international trends show deficiencies in U.S. child wellbeing, particularly in Family Economic Well-Being, Health, and Educational Attainment domains. On the other hand, the U.S. does relatively well on indicators in the Safety/Behavior, Community Connectedness, and Emotional Well-Being domains. 35 FCD CWI FCD CWI Best-Practice Analyses As noted earlier, the basic social indicators question of how are we doing can be answered in three ways. In addition to comparisons with how we are doing in comparison to the past and in comparison to other countries or social units, we can address this question in terms of comparisons to goals or other externally-constructed standards. 36 FCD CWI FCD CWI Best-Practice Analyses An externally-constructed standard that we have used for the CWI is a “best practice” standard, where best practice refers either to the “best historical value” of each indicator ever observed in the U.S., or the goals set by Healthy People 2000 (NCHS) or to the “best internationally observed” value of each indicator among countries for which data are available. 37 FCD CWI FCD CWI Best-Practice Analyses Recent calculations of the values the (U.S.) CWI would obtain if all of the 28 indicators were at their best values are: 126.53 for historical best-practice U.S. values, and 147.36 for international best-practice values. Implication: By either criterion, there is much to be done in improving child and youth well-being in the U.S. 38 FCD CWI FCD CWI The CWI on the Web: http://www.soc.duke.edu/~cwi/ This project is funded by grants from the Foundation for Child Development 39