Ask Good Questions Allan J. Rossman Dept of Statistics Cal Poly – San Luis Obispo (USA) 8th International Conference on Teaching Statistics Frank Sinatra What’s the secret to success as a singer? “Sing Good Songs” Rossman Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 2 My similarly succinct suggestion What’s the secret to success at teaching statistics? “Ask Good Questions” Rossman Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 3 No hidden message My take-home message Ask Good Questions Quiz at end of presentation Q: What was my point? A: Ask Good Questions I may email you in 10 years Rossman Q: What do you remember? A: Ask Good Questions Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 4 George Cobb “Judge a textbook by its exercises, and you cannot go far wrong.” Rossman Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 5 My corollary “Judge a teacher by the questions that he/she asks of students, and you cannot go far wrong.” Rossman Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 6 What kinds/purposes of questions? Guide students to develop their understanding and skills Learning activities Assess how well students have learned Rossman Assessment questions Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 7 What makes a question “good”? I respectfully decline to answer Instead I’ll present some examples of both kind of questions (learning activities, assessment questions) For now Taken from “Stat 101” (introductory, algebrabased, service course at tertiary level) Then I’ll revisit this question Rossman Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 8 Four examples (learning activities) Rossman Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 9 George Cobb (again) “Shorn of all subtlety and led naked out of the protective fold of educational research literature, there comes a sheepish little fact: lectures don’t work nearly as well as many of us would like to think.” Rossman Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 10 Example 1: TVs and life expectancy Is there an association between a country’s life expectancy and its number of televisions per person? Rossman Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 11 Example 1: TVs and life expectancy Does the scatterplot reveal an association? Which direction? How strong? Linear? Based on these data, would you conclude that sending TVs to Haiti would cause Haitians to start living longer? Identify a confounding variable that explains the association Does a strong association between variables imply a cause/effect relationship? Rossman Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 12 Example 2: Reading cancer pamphlets Are pamphlets containing information for cancer patients written at an appropriate level that cancer patients can understand? Rossman Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 13 Example 2: Reading cancer pamphlets Explain why the mean cannot be calculated for patients’ reading levels Determine median reading level of patients, median readability level of pamphlets Are the pamphlets’ readability levels wellmatched to the patients’ reading levels? What proportion of patients have reading level below that of simplest pamphlet? Rossman Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 14 Example 2: Reading cancer pamphlets 0.3 0.25 pat ient s pamphlets proportion 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 above 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 under 3 0 level Rossman Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 15 Example 3: Sleep deprivation Does sleep deprivation have harmful effects on cognitive functioning three days later? 21 subjects; random assignment sleep condition deprived unrestricted -16 -8 0 8 16 24 improvement 32 40 Identify type of study, observational units, explanatory and response variables Rossman Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 16 Example 3: Sleep deprivation Students use simulation (tactile, then computer-based) to investigate core question of statistical inference: Rossman Is such an extreme difference unlikely to occur by chance (random assignment) alone (if there were no treatment effect)? Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 17 Example 3: Sleep deprivation Summarize conclusion, and explain reasoning process that supports your conclusion Rossman Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 18 Example 4: Which tire? Legendary campus story Which tire would you pick? Research question: Do people tend to pick right front tire more often than random chance? Rossman Again, students investigate the question of how surprising the observed class result would be under the null model with ¼ probability Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 19 Example 4: Which tire? What if 32% of a random sample selects right front? Is this a significant/convincing result? Or, what additional information would you need? Make prediction for how p-value will change (if at all) as sample size increases Calculate p-value for many different sample sizes Summarize how sample size affects p-value, strength of evidence Rossman Explain why this makes intuitive sense (in hindsight, if not in foresight) Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 20 Five examples (assessment items) Rossman Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 21 Joan Garfield, Beth Chance Because students learn to value what they know they will be tested on, we should assess what we value.” - JG “The number one mantra to remember when designing assessment instruments is: Assess what you value.” - BC Rossman Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 22 Assessment example 1 For each of the following quantities, indicate whether it can NEVER be negative or can SOMETIMES be negative. a) Sample size c) Standard deviation e) Difference in sample means g) Total sum of squares i) Coefficient of determination k) ANOVA F-test statistic Rossman b) Sample proportion d) Inter-quartile range f) Odds ratio h) Slope coefficient j) Correlation coefficient l) p-value Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 23 Assessment example 2 The U.S. has slightly more than 300 million residents. In order to estimate the proportion of U.S. residents who have a facebook account to within about 3 percentage points with 95% confidence, about how many people should be randomly sampled? 100 100,000 Rossman 1000 1,000,000 Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 10,000 10,000,000 24 Assessment example 3 Are people more likely to lie with email than with penciland-paper communication? A recent study involved 48 graduate students in business at a particular university who participated in a “bargaining” game. Researchers kept track of whether the student lied about the amount of money involved when negotiating with another player. Some of the participants were randomly assigned to use email for their communication, while others used paperand-pencil. It turned out that 24 of 26 who used email were guilty of lying about the amount of money involved, compared to 14 of 22 who used paper-and-pencil. Rossman Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 25 Assessment example 3 (cont.) Use a simulation analysis to investigate whether these data provide strong evidence in support of the research conjecture in the first sentence above. Summarize the conclusions that you draw from your analysis. Be sure to address issues of statistical significance, causation, and generalizability. Also explain the reasoning process and justification for your conclusions. Rossman Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 26 Assessment example 4 State a research question, and describe a data collection plan to address it, for which a twoproportion z-test would be the relevant inference procedure. Identify the explanatory and response variables, and also state the relevant hypotheses, defining the parameter values appropriately. Be sure to indicate whether the data collection plan involves random sampling or random assignment. Rossman Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 27 Assessment example 5 (from 2009 AP Statistics exam) Consider the statistic mean / median. What values of this statistic might indicate that the population distribution is skewed to the right? Consider simulation results for values of mean / median, based on a normal population, and also the observed value of mean / median for given sample data. Do the simulation results suggest that the underlying population is skewed to the right? Explain. Rossman Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 28 Assessment example 5 (from AP Statistics, cont.) Use only statistics in the five-number summary (min, Q1, median, Q3, max) to propose your own measure of skewness. Indicate values of this statistic that would suggest skewness to the right. Explain. Rossman Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 29 Oh, by the way …. Notice that this talk is trying to model question-based pedagogy Rossman From these specific questions/examples we can extract principles of “good” questions Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 30 So, what makes a question “good”? Makes students think Engages students’ interest Goes beyond their starting point Challenges without overwhelming students To put forth effort to learn To care about the course material being studied Addresses important ideas Rossman Indicates to students what’s valued Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 31 What else makes a question “good”? Fits within logical progression Builds on students’ knowledge Asks students to make/check predictions Confronts students’ misconceptions Inspires students to ask their own questions Rossman About course material About “real-world” phenomena that can be investigated using intellectual skills being learned Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 32 One vehicle for students posing and investigating own questions Students use gapminder software (Hans Rosling) to Rossman Pose research questions about the world Investigate those questions with animated graphics Write report of their findings Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 33 Some questions from students’ projects Are students more likely to recycle water bottles depending on the proximity of recycle bin and waste basket? Can people better answer math problems if they are presented with Roman letter notation as opposed to Greek letter notation? Are people who walk into a clothing store more likely to purchase something when the weather is rainy as opposed to sunny? Is balsa wood less elastic after it has been immersed in water? Are students’ reaction times affected by whether they’ve just completed exercising? Are faculty more likely to drive a foreign car than students? Do guests at a dinner respond more positively to spaghetti sauce that has been sweetened or not sweetened? Do college students spend more money at a local fast food restaurant if they are under the influence of alcohol? Rossman Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 34 More unsolicited advice ICOTS: Teaching Statistics Any advice for teachers of younger students? Ask Good Questions Any advice for teachers of graduate students? My experience at introductory tertiary level Ask Good Questions Any advice for statistics education researchers? Rossman Ask Good Questions Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 35 Examples of interest to me Does presenting activities/examples based on real data from genuine studies Improve student learning of statistical ideas? Increase student interest in statistics? Enhance transferability of skills? Do students learn more if tactile simulations are presented before technology ones? Does it matter whether students construct or simply consume simulation results? Rossman Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 36 Some final questions for you Have you ever attended a presentation titled Ask Bad Questions, or Don’t Ask Questions? Of course not! So, … Rossman Why am I wasting your time offering such obvious advice as “Ask Good Questions”?? Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 37 Yeah, why am I wasting your time? I respectfully suggest that the next time you or I feel compelled to invest some of our valuable time, thought, energy, and creativity on … Rossman Preparing crystal-clear lectures Writing lucid paragraphs of exposition Developing software illustrations Crafting beautiful presentations Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 38 What should we do? Rossman Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 39 What should we do? Resist this temptation! Rossman Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 40 So, what do I suggest instead? Instead we should invest these precious commodities (time, thought, energy, creativity) on Developing engaging classroom activities Preparing thought-provoking assignments Writing lab or project expectations Crafting effective assessment items In other words, we should focus more of our attention on making sure that we … Rossman Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 41 What’s my point again? Ask Good Questions! Rossman Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 42 Thanks very much! arossman@calpoly.edu http://statweb.calpoly.edu/arossman/ AskGoodQuestionsICOTS.ppt Rossman Ask Good Questions (ICOTS-8) 43