NUMERICAL ANALYSIS OF BIOLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL DATA Lecture 9. Discriminant Analysis DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS Discriminant analysis of two groups Assumptions of discriminant analysis - Multivariate normality Homogeneity Comparison of properties of two groups Identification of unknowns - Picea pollen Canonical variates analysis (= multiple discriminant analysis) of three or more groups Discriminant analysis in the framework of regression Discriminant analysis and artificial neural networks Niche analysis of species Relation of canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) to canonical variates analysis (CVA) Generalised distance-based canonical variates analysis Discriminant analysis and classification trees Software IMPORTANCE OF CONSIDERING GROUP STRUCTURE Visual comparison of the method used to reduce dimensions in (a) an unconstrained and (b) a constrained ordination procedure. Data were simulated from a multivariate normal distribution with the two groups having different centroids (6, 9) and (9, 7), but both variables had a standard deviation of 2, and the correlation between the two variables was 0.9. Note the difference in scale between the first canonical axis (CV1) and the first principal component (PC1). DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS 1. Taxonomy – species discrimination e.g. Iris setosa, I. virginica 2. Pollen analysis – pollen grain separation 3. Morphometrics – sexual dimorphism 4. Geology – distinguishing rock samples Klovan & Billings (1967) Bull. Canad. Petrol. Geol. 15, 313-330 Discriminant function – linear combination of variables x1 and x2. z = b1x1 + b2x2 where b1 and b2 are weights attached to each variable that determine the relative contributions of the variable. Geometrically – line that passes through where group ellipsoids cut each other L, then draw a line perpendicular to it, M, that passes through the origin, O. Project ellipses onto the perpendicular to give two univariate distributions S1 and S2 on discriminant function M. X2 Plot of two bivariate distributions, showing overlap between groups A and B along both variables X1 and X2. Groups can be distinguished by projecting members of the two groups onto the discriminant function line. z = b1 x 1 + b2 x 2 Schematic diagram indicating part of the concept underlying discriminant functions. Can generalise for three or more variables m discriminant function coefficients for m variables Sw = D = (x1 – x2) m x m matrix of pooled variances and covariances vector of mean differences Solve from: inverse of Sw = Sw-1 (x1 – x2) = Sw-1D SIMPLE EXAMPLE OF LINEAR DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS Group A Mean of variable x1 = 0.330 With na individuals Mean of variable x2 = 1.167 Mean vector = [0.330 1.167] Group B Mean of variable x1 = 0.340 With nb individuals Mean of variable x2 = 1.210 Mean vector = [0.340 1.210] Vector of mean differences (D) = [-0.010 Variance-covariance matrix n Sij = (x ik x i )(x jk x j ) k 1 where xik is the value of variable i for individual k. -0.043] Covariance matrix for group A (SA) = 0.00092 and for group B (SB) = Pooled matrix SW = -0.00489 0.07566 0.00138 -0.00844 -0.00844 0.10700 SA + SB na + nb - 2 = -0.00489 0.00003 -0.00017 -0.00017 0.00231 To solve [SW] [] = [D] we need the inverse of SW = SW-1 = 59112.280 4312.646 4312.646 747.132 Now SW-1 . D = 59112.280 4312.646 -0.010 = 4312.646 747.132 -0.043 -783.63 x1 -75.62 x2 i.e. discriminant function coefficients are -783.63 for variable x1 and -75.62 for x2. [z = -783.63 x1 - 75.62 x2 ] MATRIX INVERSION Division of one matrix by another, in the sense of ordinary algebraic division, cannot be performed. To solve the equation for matrix [X] [A] . [X] = [B] we first find the inverse matrix [A], generally represented as [A]-1. The inverse or reciprocal matrix of [A] satisfies the relationship [A] . [A]-1 = [I] where [I] is an identity matrix with zeros in all the elements except the diagonal where the elements are all 1. To solve for [X] we multiply both sides by [A]-1 to get [A]-1 . [A]. [X] = [A]-1 . B As [A-] . [A] = [I] and [I].[X] = [X] the above equation reduces to [X] = [A]-1 . B If matrix A is 4 10 10 30 to find its inverse we first place an identity matrix [I] next to it. 4 10 10 30 . 1 0 0 1 We now want to convert the diagonal elements of A to ones and the offdiagonal elements to zeros. We do this by dividing the matrix rows by constants and subtracting the rows of the matrix from other rows, i.e. 1 2.5 0.25 0 Row one is divided by 4 to 0 5 0 1 produce an element a11 = 1 To reduce a21 to zero we now subtract ten times row one from row 2 to give 1 2.5 0.25 0 0 5 -2.5 1 To make a22 = 1 we now divide row two by 5, 1 2.5 0.25 0 0 1 -0.5 0.2 To reduce element a12 to zero, we now subtract 2.5 times row one to give 1 0 1.5 -0.5 0 1 -0.5 0.2 The inverse of A is thus 1.5 -0.5 -0.5 0.2 This can be checked by multiplying [A] by [A]-1 which should yield the identity matrix I i.e. 1.5 -0.5 -0.5 0.2 . 4 10 10 30 = 1 0 0 1 R.A. Fisher Can position the means of group A and of group B on the discriminant function RA = 1x1 + 2x2 Rb = -783.63 x 0.340 + -75.62 x 1.210 = -783.63 x 0.330 + -75.62 x 1.167 = -357.81 = -346.64 D2 = (x1 – x2) Sw-1 (x1 – x2) We can position individual samples along discriminant axis. The distance between the means = D2 = 11.17 To test the significance of this we use Hotelling's T2 test for differences between means = n a n b D2 with an F ratio of na + nb – m – 1 T2 R n a + nb (na + nb – 2) m CANOCO and m and (na + nb – m – 1) degrees of freedom. ASSUMPTIONS 1. Objects in each group are randomly chosen. 2. Variables are normally distributed within each group. 3. Variance-covariance matrices of groups are statistically homogeneous (similar size, shape, orientation). 4. None of the objects used to calculate discriminant function is misclassified. Also in identification: 5. Probability of unknown object belonging to either group is equal and cannot be from any other group. MULTIVARIATE NORMALITY Mardia (1970) Biometrika 57, 519–530 SKEWNESS b1,m 1 2 n x n n i 1 j 1 i x 1 S 1 x j x 3 Significance A = n.b1,m/6 x2 distribution with m(m + 1)(m + 2)/6 degrees of freedom. n KURTOSIS b2,m Test significance 2 1 1 1 x x S x x i i n i 1 B b2,m mm 2/8mm 2 n 2 1 Asymptotically distributed as N(0,1). Reyment (1971) J. Math. Geol. 3, 357-368 Malmgren (1974) Stock. Contrib. Geol. 29, 126 pp Malmgren (1979) J. Math. Geol. 11, 285-297 Birks & Peglar (1980) Can. J. Bot. 58, 2043-2058 Probability plotting D2 plots. MULTNORM Multidimensional probability plotting. The top three diagrams show probability plots (on arithmetic paper) of generalized distances between two variables: left, plot of D2 against probability; middle, plot of D2 against probability; right, a similar plot after removal of four outlying values and recalculations of D2 values. If the distributions are normal, such plots should approximate to S-shaped. The third curve is much closer to being S-shaped than is the second, so that we surmise that removal of the outlying values has converted the distribution to normal. Again, however, a judgement as to degree of fit to a curved line is difficult to make visually. Replotting the second and third figures above on probability paper gives the probability plots shown in the bottom two diagrams. It is now quite clear that the full data set does not approximate to a straight line; the data set after removal of four outliers is, on visual inspection alone, remarkably close to a straight line. STATISTICAL HOMOGENEITY OF COVARIANCE MATRICES Primary causes Secondary causes B 2 Nalog e det S det S Nblog e det S det S a b Approximate x2 distribution ½ m(m + 1)d.f. and B distribution with ½ m(m + 1)d.f. 2m3 3m2 m Na Nb 2 12 2 Campbell (1981) Austr. J. Stat. 23, 21-37 ORNTDIST COMPARISON OF PROPERTIES OF TWO MULTIVARIATE GROUPS ORNTDIST Reyment (1969) J. Math. Geol. 1, 185-197 Reyment (1969) Biometrics 25, 1-8 Reyment (1969) Bull. Geol. Inst. Uppsala 1, 121-159 Reyment (1973) In Discriminant Analysis & Applications (ed. T. Cacoulos) Birks & Peglar (1980) Can. J. Bot. 58, 2043-2058 Gilbert (1985) Proc. Roy. Soc. B 224, 107-114 Outliers - probability plots of D2 gamma plot (m/2 shape parameter) PCA of both groups separately and test for homogeneity of group matrices Chi-square probability plot of generalized distances. (In this and subsequent figures of probability the theoretical quantities are plotted along the x-axis and the ordered observations along the y-axis.) Ordered observa -tions D2 Chi-square probability plot of generalized distances D2 1 = 2 1 2 Lengths 1 2 1 2 TESTS FOR ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES Anderson (1963) Ann. Math. Stat. 34, 122-148 ORNTDIST Calculate n 1 di biS11bi 1 d bS b 2 i 1 1 i where n is sample size of dispersion matrix S1, di is eigenvalue i, bi is eigenvector i of dispersion matrix S2 (larger of the two). This is x2 distributed with (m – 1) d.f. If heterogeneous, can test whether due to differences in orientation. If no differences in orientation, heterogeneity due to differences in size and shape of ellipsoids. SQUARED GENERALISED DISTANCE VALUES Species Inflation heterogeneity Orientation heterogeneity Approx D2a Heterogenous D2h Standar d D2s D2h – D2s Reyment's D2r Carcinus maenas + + 3.11 3.16 2.60 0.56 (17.7)* 2.60 Artemia salina + + 0.77 0.85 0.77 0.08 (9.4) 0.88 Rana esculenta + + 0.180 0.182 0.190 0.08 (44.0) 0.30 Rana temporaria + - 0.902 0.928 0.887 0.041 (4.4) 1.12 Omocestus haemorrhoidalis Kinnekulle + + 54.83 54.96 54.63 0.33 (0.6) 59.67 Kinnekulle-Gotland + + 0.49 0.49 0.48 0.01 (2.0) 0.55 Öland-Kinnekulle + + 1.70 1.70 1.69 0.01 (0.6) 1.72 Chrysemys picta marginata (raw data) + + 5.56 6.66 5.56 0.10 (1.5) 4.88 * Percentages within parentheses (Reyment (1969) Bull. Geol. Inst. Uppsala 1, 97-119) GENERALISED STATISTICAL DISTANCES BETWEEN TWO GROUPS Mahalanobis D2 ORNTDIST = d' S d where S-1 is the inverse of the pooled variance-covariance matrix, and d is the vector of differences between the vectors of means of the two samples. 1 Anderson and Bahadur D2 = 2b ' d 1 2 (b' S1 b) (b' S2 b) 1 2 where b = (t S1 (1 t) S2)1 d , S1 and S2 are the respective group covariance matrices, and t is a scalar term between zero and 1 that is improved iteratively Reyment D2 = 2d ' Sr 1 d where Sr is the sample covariance matrix of differences obtained from the random pairing of the two groups. As N1Dr2/2 = T2, can test significance. Average D2 = d ' Sa 1 d where Sa = ½ (S1 + S2 ) Dempster’s directed distances D(1)2 = d ' S11 d and D(2)2 = d ' S21 d Dempster’s generalised distance D12 = (d Sw 1) S1 (d Sw 1)t and D22 = (d Sw 1) S2 (d Sw 1)t Dempster’s delta distance D2 = d ' S1 d S2 na nb 1 1 na nb S1 where S = IDENTIFICATION OF UNKNOWN OBJECTS DISKFN, R Assumption that probability of unknown object belonging to either group only is equal. Presupposes no other possible groups it could come from. Closeness rather than either/or identification. If unknown, u, has position on discriminant function: Ru 1u1 2u2 then: 2 xau a u 1 S 1 a u 2 x bu b u 1 S 1 b u m degrees of freedom Birks & Peglar (1980) Can. J. Bot. 58, 2043-2058 Picea glauca (white spruce) pollen Picea mariana (black spruce) pollen Quantitative characters of Picea pollen (variables x1 – x7). The means (vertical line), 1 standard deviation (open box), and range (horizontal line) are shown for the reference populations of the three species. Results of testing for multivariate skewness and kurtosis in the seven size variables for Picea glauca and P. mariana pollen P. glauca P. mariana Skewness b1,7 4.31 7.67 A 81.21 127.79 º of freedom 84 84 b2,7 59.16 60.55 B -1.82 -1.09 Kurtosis The homogeneity of the covariance matrices based on all seven size variables (x1 – x7, Fig 3) was tested by means of the FORTRAN IV program ORNTDIST written by Reyment et al (1969) and modified by H.J.B Birks. The value of B2 obtained is 52.85, which for 2 = 0.98 and 28 degrees of freedom is significant (p = 0.003). This indicates that the hypothesis of homogenous covariance matrices cannot be accepted. Thus the assumption implicit in linear discriminant analysis of homogenous matrices is not justified for these data. Delete x7 (redundant, invariant variable) Kullback's test suggests that there is now no reason to reject the hypothesis that the covariance matrices are homogenous (B2 = 31.3 which, for 2 = 0.64 and 21 degrees of freedom is not significant (p = 0.07)). These results show that when only variables x1 – x6 are considered the assumptions of linear discriminant analysis are justified. All the subsequent numerical analyses discussed here are thus based on variables x1 – x6 only. Results of testing for multivariate skewness and kurtosis in the size variables x1 – x6 for Picea glauca and P. mariana pollen. P. glauca P. mariana Skewness b1,6 2.99 5.05 A 56.31 74.15 º of freedom 56 56 Kurtosis b2,6 44.48 45.94 B -1.91 -1.05 NOTE: None of the values for A or B is significant at the 0.05 probability level. Representation of the discriminant function for two populations and two variables. The population means I and II and associated 95% probability contours are shown. The vector c~ is the discriminant vector. The points yI and yII represent the discriminant means for the two populations. The points (e), (f) and (h) represent three new individuals to be allocated. The points (q) and (r) are the discriminant scores for the individuals (e) and (f). The point (0I) is the discriminant mean yI. Alternative representation of the discriminant function. The axes PCI and PCII represent orthonormal linear combinations of the original variables. The 95% probability ellipses become 95% probability circles in the space of the orthonormal variables. The population means I and II for the discriminant function for the orthonormal variables are equal to the discriminant means yI and yII. Pythagorean distance can be used to determine the distances from the new individuals to the population means. CANONICAL VARIATES ANALYSIS MULTIPLE DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS Bivariate plot of three populations. A diagrammatic representation of the positions of three populations, A, B and C, when viewed as the bivariate plot of measurements x and y (transformed as in fig 20 to equalize variations) and taken from the specimens (a's, b's and c's) in each population. The positions of the populations in relation to the transformed measurements are shown. A diagrammatic representation of the process of generalized distance analysis performed upon the data of left figure; d1, d2, and d3 represent the appropriate distances. D2 A diagrammatic representation of the process of canonical analysis when applied to the data of top left figure. The new axes ' and " represent the appropriate canonical axes. The positions of the populations A, B, and C in relation to the canonical axes are shown. g groups g – 1 axes (comparison between two means - 1 degree of freedom three means - 2 degrees of freedom) m variables If m < g – 1, only need m axes i.e. min (m, g – 1) Dimension reduction technique An analysis of 'canonical variates' was also made for all six variables Artemia measured by GILCHRIST.* The variables are: body length (x1), abdomen salina length (x2), length of prosoma (x3), width of abdomen (x4), length of (brine furca (x5), and number of setae per furca (x6). (Prosoma = head plus shrimp) thorax.) The eigenvalues are, in order of magnitude, 33.213, 1.600, 0.746, 0.157, 0.030, -0.734. The first two eigenvalues account for about 99 percent of the total variation. The equations deriving from the eigenvalues of the first two eigenvectors are: E1 = –0.13x1 + 0.70x2 + 0-07x3 – 0.36x4 – 0.35x5 – 0.14x6 E2 = –0.56x1 + 0.48x2 + 0-08x3 – 0.18x4 – 0.20x5 + 0.31x6 By substituting the means for each sample, the sets of mean canonical variates shown in Table App II.10 (below) were obtained. 14 groups Six variables Five localities 35 ‰, 140 ‰ ♂, ♀ 2669 individuals CANVAR R.A. Reyment Example of the relationship between the shape of the body of the brine shrimp Artemia salina and salinity. Redrawn from Reyment (1996). The salinities are marked in the confidence circles (35‰, respectively, 140‰). The first canonical variate reflects geographical variation in morphology, the second canonical variate indicates shape variation. The numbers in brackets after localities identify the samples. ♂ ♀ Sexual dimorphism ♂ (green) to left of ♀ (pink) Salinity changes 35‰ 140‰ SOME REVISION Matrix X(nxm) Y(mxm) PCA Y1Y (sum of squares and cross-products matrix) Canonical variates analysis X(nxm) g submatrices X1 X2 X3 Xg Y1 Y2 Y3 Yg Y11Y1 Y21Y2 Y31Y3 centring by variable means for each submatrix within group SSP matrix Yg = Wi W W within-groups SSP matrix Y 1Y T total SSP matrix B T W between-groups SSP matrix i T I u 0 PCA CVA B W u 0 T I 0 or BW B W 0 1 I u 0 BW 1 I 0 i.e. obvious difference is that BW-1 has replaced T. Number of CVA eigenvalues = m or g – 1, which ever is smaller. Maximise ratio of B to W. Canonical variate is linear combination of variables that maximises the ratio of between-group sum of squares B to within-group sum of squares W. i.e. 1 u1Bu u1Wu (cf. PCA 1 = u1Tu ) B T W Normalised eigenvectors (sum of squares = 1, divide by x) give normalised canonical variates. Adjusted canonical variates – within-group degrees of freedom. 1 1 W u u u ng 2 Standardised vectors – multiply eigenvectors by pooled within-group standard deviation. Scores yij uj xi Dimension reduction technique. Other statistics relevant CANVAR, R 1) Multivariate analysis of variance Wilks W T 2) Homogeneity of dispersion matrices g i 1 ni 2 W log e Wi x2 distribution where ni is sample size –1, W pooled matrix, Wi is group i matrix g 1mm 1 2 d.f. Geometrical interpretation – Campbell & Atchley (1981) Ellipses for pooled within-group matrix W P1, P2 principal components of W 7 groups, 2 variables Scatter ellipses and means Scale each principal component to unit variance (divide by ) Project 7 groups onto principal component areas p1, and P2 PCA of groups means, I and II Euclidian space I and II are canonical roots. Reverse from orthonormal to orthogonal Reverse from orthogonal to original variables (as in (c)) (as in (a) and (b)) Illustration of the rotation and scaling implicit in the calculation of the canonical vectors. AIDS TO INTERPRETATION CANVAR Plot group means and individuals Goodness of fit i/i Plot axes 1 & 2, 2 & 3, 1 & 3 Individual scores and 95% group confidence contours 2 standard deviations of group scores or z /n where z is standardised normal deviate at required probability level, n is number of individuals in group. 95% confidence circle, 5% tabulated value of F based on 2 and (n – 2) degrees of freedom. Minimum spanning tree of D2 Scale axes to ’s Total D2 = D2 on axes + D2 on other axes (the latter should be small if the model is a good fit) Residual D2 of group means INTERPRETATION OF RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF VARIABLE LOADINGS Weighted loadings - multiply loading by pooled W standard deviation Structure coefficients - correlation between observed variables and canonical variables S = Rc 1 c D 2u u1Wu where D = diagonal element of W W = within-group matrix u = normalised eigenvectors Very important for interpretation because canonical coefficients are ‘partial’ – reflect an association after influence of other variables has been removed. Common to get highly correlated variables with different signed canonical correlations or non-significant coefficients when jointly included but highly significant when included separately. Canonical variate ‘biplots’. CANVAR Canonical variates analysis of the Manitoba set 1 2 Canonical variate loadings Picea -0.026 -0.029 Pinus -0.034 -0.03 Betula -0.026 -0.034 Alnus -0.032 -0.036 Salix -0.018 -0.002 Gramineae -0.047 -0.006 Cyperaceae -0.026 -0.047 Chenopodiaceae -0.072 -0.052 Ambrosia -0.018 -0.029 Artemisia -0.063 -0.048 Rumex/Oxyria -0.034 -0.045 Lycopodium -0.027 -0.126 Ericaceae -0.033 -0.092 Tubuliflorae -0.111 -0.062 Larix -0.047 -0.02 Corylus -0.066 0.018 Populus -0.047 0.009 Quercus -0.056 -0.025 Fraxinus -0.076 -0.093 Canonical variate group means Tundra 3.361 -1.336 Forest-tundra 3.11 -2.401 Open coniferous forest 2.643 -0.982 Closed conif. Forest A -0.805 3.134 Closed conif. Forest B 2.126 1.089 Closed conif. Forest C 1.393 0.873 Mixed forest (uplands) -0.676 0.711 Mixed forest (lowlands) 0.538 2.836 Deciduous forest -12.415 0.312 Aspen parkland -12.468 -0.161 Grassland -18.039 -5.932 Eignevalue % total variance accounted for Cummulative % variance accounted for 3012.9 62.4 62.4 588.7 12.1 74.5 3 4 5 6 0.047 0.028 0.021 0.012 0.063 0.022 0.036 0.036 0.058 0.033 0.017 -0.055 0.071 0.093 0.027 0.081 0.052 0.037 0.088 0.016 0.019 0.008 0.027 -0.012 0.016 0.015 0.041 0.014 0.023 0.022 -0.011 0.029 -0.003 0.021 -0.096 0.007 0.009 -0.014 0.035 0.041 0.035 0.039 0.021 0.015 0.033 0.01 0.009 0.047 0.046 0.019 0.033 0.104 0.057 0.106 -0.006 0.034 0.169 -0.009 -0.014 -0.003 -0.033 0.019 -0.014 -0.012 0.009 -0.065 -0.013 -0.021 -0.025 -0.05 -0.034 0.049 -0.026 -0.073 -0.018 0.054 -2.303 2.702 1.249 -3.553 2.128 -1.595 0.689 -0.787 1.72 -0.045 0.506 -1.338 0.332 0.812 1.266 0.372 0.733 -1.395 -0.985 -7.372 1.192 4.475 -0.837 -0.619 0.185 2.169 0.44 1.114 0.846 -2.738 3.655 -2.451 2.827 0.247 -0.984 -0.781 -1.355 0.305 0.118 0.388 0.788 -0.841 -1.069 3.848 432.2 8.9 83.4 518.1 6.5 89.9 302.1 6.2 96.1 92.5 1.9 98 Birks et al. (1975) Rev. Palaeobot. Palynol. 20, 133-169 Modern pollen Modern vegetation OTHER INTERESTING EXAMPLES Nathanson (1971) Appl. Stat. 20, 239-249 Astronomy Green (1971) Ecology 52, 542-556 Niche Margetts et al. (1981) J Human Nutrition 35, 281-286 Dietary Patterns Carmelli & Cavalli-Sforza (1979) Human Biology 51, 41-61 Genetic Origin of Jews Oxnard (1973) Form and Pattern in Human Evolution - Chicago ASSUMPTIONS – Williams (1983) Ecology 64, 1283-1291 Homogeneous matrices and multivariate normality. Heterogeneous matrices common. 1. Compare results using different estimates of within-group matrices – pool over all but one group, pool subsets of matrices. Robust estimation of means and covariances. Influence functions. Campbell (1980) Appl. Stat. 29, 231–237. 2. Calculate D2 for each pair of groups using pooled W or pooled for each pair. Do two PCOORDs of D2 using pooled and paired matrices. Compare results. Procrustes rotation. 3. Determine D2 twice for each pair of groups using each matrix in turn. Degree of symmetry and asymmetry examined. Several ordinations possible based on different D2 estimates. Procrustes rotation. 4. Campbell (1984) J. Math. Geol. 16, 109–124 extension with heterogeneous matrices – weighted between group and likelihood ratio – non-centrality matrix generalisations. Outliers – Campbell (1982) Appl. Stat. 31, 1–8. Robust CVA – incidence functions, linearly bounded for means, quadratically bounded or exponentially weighted for covariances. Campbell & Reyment (1980) Cret. Res. 1, 207–221. DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS A DIFFERENT FORMULATION Response variables Predictor variables Class 1 Class 2 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 x1 x2 x3 ... xm Regression with 0/1 response variable and predictor variables. DISCRIMINANT FUNCTION FOR SEXING FULMARINE PETRELS FROM EXTERNAL MEASUREMENTS (Van Franketer & ter Braak (1993) The Auk, 110: 492-502) Lack plumage characters by which sexes can be recognised. Problems of geographic variation in size and shape. Approach: 1. A generalised discriminant function from data from sexed birds of a number of different populations 2. Population – specific cut points without reference to sexed birds Measurements Five species of fulmarine petrels HL – head length Antarctic petrel Northern fulmar Cape petrel Southern fulmar Snow petrel CL – bill length BD – bill depth TL – tarsus length STEPWISE MULTIPLE REGRESSION Ranks characters according to their discriminative power, provides estimates for constant and regression coefficient b1 (character weight) for each character. For convenience, omit constant and divide the coefficient by the first-ranked character. Discriminant score = m1 + w2m2 + ..... + wnmn where mi = bi/b1 Cut point – mid-point between ♂ and ♀ mean scores. Reliability tests 1. Self-test - how well are the two sexes discriminated? Ignores bias, over-optimistic 2. Cross-test - divide randomly into training set and test set 3. Jack-knife (or leave-one-out – LOO) - use all but one bird, predict it, repeat for all birds. Use n-1 samples. Best reliability test. Small data-sets - self-test OVERESTIMATE - cross-test UNDERESTIMATE - jack-knife RELIABLE MULTISAMPLE DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS If samples of sexed birds in different populations are small but different populations have similar morphology (i.e. shape) useful to estimate GENERALISED DISCRIMINANT from combined samples. 1. 2. Cut-point established with reference to sex (determined by dissection) WITH SEX Cut-point without reference to sex NO SEX Decompose mixtures of distributions into their underlying components. Maximum likelihood solution based on assumption of two univariate normal distributions with unequal variances. Expectation – maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate means 1 and 2 and variances 1 and 2 of the normals. Cut point is where the two normal densities intersect. xs = (22 - 12)-1 {122 - 212 + 12 [(1 - 2)2 + (12 - 22) log n 12/22]0.5} DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS Artificial neural networks Input vectors Output vectors >1 Predictor 1 or more Responses Regression >1 Variable 2 or more Classes (or 1/0 Responses) Discriminant analysis DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS BY NEURAL NETWORKS Malmgren & Nordlund (1996) Paleoceanography 11, 503–512 Four distinct volcanic ash zones in late Quaternary sediments of Norwegian Sea. Zone A B C D Basaltic and Rhyolithic types 8 classes x 9 variables (Na2O, MgO, Al2O3, SiO, K2O, CaO, TiO2, MnO, FeO) 183 samples (A). Diagram showing the general architecture of a 3-layer back propagation network with five elements in the input layer, three neurons in the hidden layer, and two neurons in the output layer. Each neuron in the hidden and output layers receives weighted signals from the neurons in the previous layer. (B) Diagram showing the elements of a single neuron in a back propagation network. In forward propagation, the incoming signals from the neurons of the previous layer (p) are multiplied with the weights of the connections (w) and summed. The bias (b) is then added, and the resulting sum is filtered through the transfer function to produce the activity (a) of the neuron. This is sent on to the next layer or, in the case of the last layer, represents the output. (C) A linear transfer function (left) and a sigmoidal transfer function (right). 4 zones ABCD 2 types Rhyolite Basalt Configuration of grains referable to the 4 late Quaternary volcanic ash zones, A through D, in the Norwegian sea described by Sjøholm et al [1991] along first and second canonical variate axes. The canonical variate analysis is based on the geochemical composition of the individual ash particles (nine chemical elements were analyzed: Na2O, MgO, Al2O3, SiO2, K2O, CaO, TiO2, MnO, and FeO). Two types of grains, basaltic and rhyolithic, were distinguished within each zone. This plane, accounting for 98% of the variability among group mean vectors in nine-dimensional space (the first axis represents 95%), distinguishes basaltic and rhyolithic grains. Apart from basaltic grains from zone C, which may be differentiated from such grains from other zones, grains of the same type are clearly overlapping with regard to the geochemical composition among the zones. Malmgren & Nordlund (1996) Changes in error rate (percentages of misclassifications in the test set) for a three-layer back propagation network with increasing number of neurons when applied to training-test set 1 (80:20% training test partition). Error rates were determined for an incremental series of 3, 6, 9, …., 33 neurons in the hidden layer. Error rates were computed as average rates based on ten independent trials with different initial random weights and biases. The error rates represent the minimum error obtained for runs of 300, 600, 900, and up to 9000 epochs. The minimum error rate (9.2%) was obtained for a configuration with 24 neurons in the hidden layer, although there is a major reduction already at nine neurons. Malmgren & Nordlund (1996) Changes in error rate (percentages of misclassifications) in the training set with increasing number of epochs in the first out of ten trials in training set 1. This network had 24 neurons in the hidden layer, and the network error was monitored over 30 subsequent intervals of 300 training epochs each. During training, the error rate in the training set decreased from 18.5% after 300 epochs to a minimum of 2.1% after 7500 epochs. The minimum error rate in the test set (10.8%) was reached after 3300 epochs. Malmgren & Nordlund (1996) CRITERION OF NEURAL NETWORK SUCCESS OTHER TECHNIQUES USED ERROR RATE of predictions in independent test set that is not part of the training set. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) Cross-validation 5 random test sets Training set 37 particles 146 particles Error rate of misclassification (%) for each test set Average rate of misclassification (%) for five test sets k-nearest neighbour technique) (=KNN) (= modern analog Soft independent modelling of close analogy (SIMCA) (close to PLS with classes) NETWORK CONFIGURATION & NUMBER OF TRAINING CYCLES CONCLUSIONS 24 neurons Average error rate NN network 9.2% Training set – minimum in error rate 7500 cycles Test set – minimum in error rate (10.8%) 3300 cycles i.e. 33.6 out of 37 particles correctly classified LDA 38.4% K-NN 30.8% SIMCA 28.7% Error rates (percentages of misclassifications in the test sets) for each of the five independent training-test set partitions (80% training set and 20% test set members) and average error rates over the five partitions for a three-layer back propagation (BP) neural network, linear network, linear discriminant analysis, the knearest neighbours technique (k-NN) and SIMCA. Neural network results are based on ten independent trials with different initial conditions. Error rates for each test set are represented by the average of the minimum error rates obtained during each of the ten trials, and the fivefold average error rates are the averages of the minimum error rates for the various partitions. Error rates in each of five training-test set partitions, fivefold average error rates in the test sets, and 95% confidence intervals for the fivefold average error rates for the techniques discussed in this paper. Neural N The fivefold average error rates were determined as the average error rates over five independent training and test sets using 80% training and 20% test partitions. Error rates for the neural networks are averages of ten trials for each training-test set partition using different initial conditions ((random initial weights and biases). The minimum fivefold error rate for the back propagation (BP) network was obtained using 24 neurons in the hidden layer. Apart from regular error rates for soft independent modelling of class analogy (SIMCA 1), the total error rates for misclassified observations that could be referable to one or several other groups are reported under SIMCA 2. LDA represents linear discriminant analysis and k-NN, k-nearest neighbour. Average error rates (percentages) for basaltic and rhyolithic particles in ash zones A through D As before, error average error rates over five experiments based on 80% training set members and 20% test set members. N is the range of sample sizes in these experiments. As in the use of ANN in regression, problems of over-fitting and overtraining and reliable model testing occur. n-fold cross-validation needed with an independent test set (10% of observations), an optimisation data set (10%), and a training or learning set (80%). repeated n-times (usually 10). ANN a computationally slow way of implementing two- or manygroup discriminant analysis. No obvious advantages. Allows use of 'mixed' data about groups (e.g. continuous, ordinal, qualitative, presence/absence). But can use mixed data in canonical analysis of principal co-ordinates if use the Gower coefficient for mixed data (see Lecture 12 for details). NICHE ANALYSIS OF SPECIES Niche region in m-dimensional space where each axis is environmental variable and where particular species occurs. Green (1971) (1974) Ecology 52, 543–556 Ecology 55, 73–83 CVA 345 samples, 32 lakes, 10 species (= groups), 9 environmental variables [CCA Y 10 species x 345 samples X 9 environmental variables x 345 samples] Multivariate niche analysis with temporally varying environmental factors partialled out time-varying variables – Green 1974. [CCA Y i.e. partial CCA] X Z covariables Lake Winnipeg Lake Manitoba All DF I and DF II discriminant scores for all Lake Winnipeg samples fall within the white area on the left. All scores for all Lake Manitoba samples fall within the white area on the right. The scales of the two ordinates and the two abscissas are identical. The 50% contour ellipses for each of the four species most frequently collected from Lake Winnipeg are shown for the two lakes. Two of the species were not collected from Lake Manitoba. Each shaded area represents a lake for which all points, defined by DF I and DF IV discriminant scores for all samples from that lake, fall within the area. Lake numbers refer to Table 1. The two concentric ellipses contain 50 and 90% of all samples of Anodonta grandis and are calculated from the means, variances and covariance in DF I – DF II space for the samples containing A. grandis. A. Normal distributions along the discriminant axis for the three species in the unmodified discriminant analysis of artificial data. B. The species 0.5 probability ellipses in the space defined by DF (Space) I and DF (Time) I in the discriminant-covariance analysis of artificial data. SPACE TIME The distribution of Rat River benthic species means in the space defined by DF (Space) I and DF (Time) I. Genera represented are listed in Table 4 and abbreviations of trophic categories are defined. Table 4. Summary by genus of Rat River benthos analysis. AH-D = active herbivore-detritivore, PH-D = passive herbivore-detritivore, C = carnivore. Calculation of niche breadth and size is based on standardized and normalized data with standardized and normalized discriminant function vectors. CANONICAL VARIATES ANALYSIS – via CANOCO Only makes sense if number of samples n >> m or g. i.e. more samples than either number of variables or number of groups. (Axes are min (m, g – 1)) In practice: 1. No problem with environmental data (m usually small). 2. Problems with biological data (m usually large and > n). 3. Use CCA or RDA to display differences in species composition between groups without having to delete species. Code groups as +/– nominal environmental variables and do CCA or RDA = MANOVA. 4. Can use CVA to see which linear combinations of environmental variables discriminate best between groups of samples – CANOCO. Use groups 1/0 as ‘species data’ Use env variables as ‘env data’ Responses Explanatory vars Species scores – CVA group means Sample scores LC – individual samples Biplot of environmental variables Permutation tests Partial CVA one-way multivariate analysis of covariance. RELATION OF CANONICAL CORRESPONDENCE ANALYSIS TO CANONICAL VARIATES ANALYSIS (= Multiple Discriminant Analysis) Green (1971, 1974) - multiple discriminant analysis to quantify multivariate Hutchinsonian niche of species Ca 1 CVA II 2 3 4 depth CVA I organic content particle size Carnes & Slade (1982) Niche analysis metrics Niche breadth = variance or standard deviation of canonical scores Niche overlap Chessel et al (1987), Lebreton et al (1988) CCA & CVA CVA - measurements of features of objects belonging to different groups - CVA linear combinations of those features that show maximum discrimination between groups, i.e. maximally separate groups Replace 'groups' by 'niches of species'. CCA - linear combinations of external features to give maximum separation of species niches. But in CVA features of the individuals are measured in CCA features of the sites are measured If SPECIES DATA IN CCA ARE COUNTS OF INDIVIDUALS AT SITES, LINK BETWEEN CVA and CCA is complete by TREATING EACH INDIVIDUAL COUNTED AS A SEPARATE UNIT, i.e. as a separate row in data matrix. DATA FOR EACH INDIVIDUAL COUNTED ARE THEN THE SPECIES TO WHICH IT BELONGS AND THE MEASUREMENTS OF THE FEATURES OF THE SITE AT WHICH IT OCCURS. CVA CCA except for scaling. CVA CCA – main difference is that unit of analysis is the individual in CVA whereas it is the site in CCA. Can be coded to be the individual and hence do CVA via CCA for niche analysis. i.e. Site Species Site pH Ca Mg Cl A B C D 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 2 3 1 0 0 1 3 4 0 1 0 0 4 5 0 1 0 1 5 6 0 0 1 0 6 7 0 0 1 1 7 Y Environment X Species scores = CVA group means Sample scores LC = Individual observations Biplot of environmental variables Hill's scaling -2 (Inter-species distances) DISTANCES BETWEEN GROUP MEANS (SPECIES) = MAHALONOBIS DISTANCES Biplot scores for the environmental variables form a biplot with the group means for each of the environmental variables, and with the individual sample points for each of the environmental variables. Sample scores that are LC environmental variables are scaled so that the within-group variance equals 1. Permutation tests can be used to see if the differences between groups are statistically significant. With covariables present, can do partial CVA = multivariate analysis of covariance. Tests for discrimination between groups in addition to the discrimination obtainable with the covariables. Technical points about using CANOCO to implement CVA 1. The eigenvalues reported by CANOCO are atypical for CVA Recalculate as = /(1-) e.g. 1 = 0.9699 2 = 0.2220 0.9699/(1 – 0-9699) 0.2220/(1 – 0.2220) = 32.2 = 0.28 CANOCO 2. Hill's scaling and a focus on inter-sample distances gives distance between group means to be Mahalonobis distances. Triplot based on a CVA of the Fisher's Iris data DEFINITION OF CCA BY MAXIMUM NICHE SEPARATION For a standardized gradient x, i.e. a gradient for which n yi yi 2 . xi 0 x i 1 i 1 y i 1 y n (1) the weighted variance of species centroids {uk} (k = 1 ... m) of equation (1) is defined by y k 2 uk k 1 y m (2) Now let x be a synthetic gradient, i.e. a linear combination of environmental variables p (3) xi c j zij j 1 with zij the value of environmental variable j (j=1....p) in site i and cj its coefficient or weight {cj}, i.e. the weights that result in a gradient x for which the weighted variance of the species scores (5) is maximum. Mathematically, the synthetic gradient x can be obtained by solving an eigenvalue problem; x is the first eigenvector x1 with eigenvalue the maximum . The optimized weights are termed canonical coefficients. Each subsequent eigenvector xs = (xls, ..., xns)’ (s>1) maximises (2) subject to constraint (3) and the extra constraint that it is uncorrelated with previous eigenvectors, i.e. y i i xit xis 0(t s) CANOCO calculates 1. Species standard deviations (= tolerances) of scores per axis. 2. Root mean square standard deviation across the four axes as summary niche breadth. 3. N2 for each species ‘effective number of occurrences of a species’. Species 1000, 1, 1, .1 – WA determined by 1000, so effective number of occurrences N2 close to 1. y ik N2 y i 1 k n n where 2 y ik i 1 1 GENERALISED DISTANCE-BASED CANONICAL VARIATES ANALYSIS (= CANONICAL ANALYSIS OF PRINCIPAL CO-ORDINATES) See lecture 7 and Anderson, M.J. & Willis, T.J. (2003) Ecology 84, 511-525 CAP - www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/~mja Canonical variates analysis of principal co-ordinates based on any symmetric distance matrix including permutation tests. Y response variable data (n x m) X predictor variables ('design matrix') to represent group membership as 1/0 variables Result is a generalised discriminant analysis (2 groups) or generalised canonical variates analysis (3 or more groups). Finds the axis or axes in principal coordinate space that best discriminate between the a priori groups. Input raw data, number of groups, and number of objects in each group. Output includes results of 'leave-one-out' classification of individual objects to groups, the misclassification error for t principal co-ordinates axes, and permutation results to test the null hypothesis that there are no significant differences in composition between the a priori groups (trace statistic and axis one eigenvalue). Plots of the proportion of correct allocations of observations to groups (= 1 minus the misclassification error) with increases in the number of principal coordinate axes (m) used for the CAP procedure on data from the Poor Knights Islands at three different times on the basis of (a) the Bray-Curtis dissimilarity measure on data transformed to y' = ln(y + 1), and (b) the chisquare distance measure. SUMMARY OF CONSTRAINED ORDINATION METHODS Methods of constrained ordination relating response variables, Y (species abundance variables) with predictor variables, X (such as quantitative environmental variables or qualitative variables that identify factors or groups as in ANOVA). Name of methods (acronyms, synonyms) Distance measure preserved Relationship of ordination axes with original variables Takes into account correlation structure Redundancy Analysis (RDA) Euclidean distance Linear with X, linear with fitted values, Ŷ = X(X'X)-1 X'Y ... among variables in X, but not among variables in Y Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) Chi-square distance Linear with X, approx unimodal with Y, linear with ^ fitted values, Y* ... among variables in X, but not among variables in Y Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCorA, COR) Mahalanobis distance Linear with X, linear with Y ... among variables in X, and among variables in Y Canonical Discriminant Analysis (CDA; Canonical Variate Analysis CVA; Discriminant Function Analysis, DFA) Mahalanobis distance Linear with X, linear with Y ... among variables in X, and among variables in Y Canonical Analysis of Principal Coordinates (CAP; Generalized Discriminant Analysis) Any chosen distance or dissimilarity Linear with X, linear with Qm; unknown with Y (depends on distance measure) ... among variables in X, and among principal coordinates Qm CRITERION FOR DRAWING ORDINATION AXES RDA • Finds axis of maximum correlation between Y and some linear combination of variables in X (i.e., multivariate regression of Y on X, followed by PCA on fitted values, Ŷ). CCA • Same as RDA, but Y are transformed to Y* and weights (square roots of row sums) are used in multiple regression. CCorA • Finds linear combination of variables in Y and X that are maximally correlated with one another. CVA • Finds axis that maximises differences among group locations. Same as CCorA when X contains group identifiers. Equivalent analysis is regression of X on Y, provided X contains orthogonal contrast vectors. CAP • Finds linear combination of axes in Qm and in X that are maximally correlated, or (if X contains group identifiers) finds axis in PCO space that maximises differences among group locations. DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS AND CLASSIFICATION TREES Recursive partition of data on the basis of set of predictor variables (in discriminant analysis a priori groups or classes, 1/0 variables). Find the best combination of variable and split threshold value that separates the entire sample into two groups that are internally homogeneous as possible with respect to species composition. Lindbladh et al. 2002. American Journal of Botany 89: 1459-1476 Picea pollen in eastern North America. Three species P. rubens P. mariana P. glauca R Lindbladh et al. (2002) Lindbladh et al. (2002) Cross-validation of classification tree (419 grains in training set, 103 grains in test set) Binary trees - Picea glauca vs rest Picea mariana vs rest Picea rubens vs rest In identification can have several outcomes e.g. not identifiable at all unequivocally P. rubens P. rubens or P. mariana Can now see which grains can be equivocally identified in test set, how many are unidentifiable, etc. Assessment of inability to be identified correctly. Test set (%) Correct (100, 010, 001) Equivocal (101, 110, 011, 111) Unidentifiable (000) P. glauca P. mariana P. rubens 79.3 70.0 75.9 0.0 2.7 2.5 20.7 27.3 21.6 Unidentifiable about the same for each species, worst in P. mariana. Applications to fossil data Cutting classification trees down to size With 'noisy' data, when classes overlap, can easily have a tree that fits the data well but is adapted too well to features of that data set. Trees can easily be too elaborate and over-fit the training set. Pruning trees by cross-validation (10-fold cross-validation) using some measure of tree complexity as a penalty. Plot relative error against the size of tree and select the largest value within one standard error of the minimum. Useful cut-off where increased complexity of data does not give concomitant pay-off in terms of predictive power. Pruned tree often as good as full unpruned tree R SOFTWARE DISKFN MULTNORM ORNTDIST CANVAR CANOCO & CANODRAW CAP R