Calibration of St. Johns River Watershed Hydrology Models Tim Cera, P.E. Senior Professional Engineer Calibration Process Meteorologic Inputs Input Observations Watershed Model (Representation) Model Results Parameters Watershed Adjust Calibration Output Observations Accept Calibrated Model Results System Results Meteorologic Input Meteorologic Inputs Input Observations Rain Hourly record over 18 stations 12 year calibration period Evaporation Consistent methodology over 16 stations (Hargreaves) Rain Meteorologic Inputs Input Observations Point rain gauges Daily Hourly Assigned polygons to sub-watershed by Thiessen Evaporation Meteorologic Inputs Input Observations Estimated using Hargreave’s equation Min and max daily temperatures Correction factor to Penman-Monteith method Assigned to sub-watershed by Theissen polygons Watershed Description Watershed Model (Representation) Parameters Land use (1995) Watershed Standard groups Watershed and sub- Determined from elevations, watershed hydrologic network, and other boundaries factors Flow Observations Primarily USGS stations Rating curve estimating flow from stage Sometimes uses velocity as additional index Output Observations System Results Weight of Evidence Annual runoff volume Monthly runoff volume Mean runoff volume over entire period Daily flow time-series Flow exceedance curves Deep recharge Output Observations System Results Parameter Common Logic Watershed Model (Representation) Parameters Developed parameter ranges based on Understanding of HSPF Understanding of Florida hydrology Calibration Watershed Model (Representation) Model Results Parameters Adjust Calibration Accept Calibrated Model Results Output Observations Parameter Estimation Parameter ESTimation (PEST) HSPF utilities Training Assist in the optimization of model parameters (Adjust and Accept) Rapidly assess more parameter combinations Evaluate interactions between parameters Sometimes requires hundreds of runs Parallel processing Calibration Calibrated 51 watersheds 1995-2006 inclusive 1995 land use 1995 operation of Upper Basin Projects Peer review `^^` `^ ^` `^ ^` `^^`^` ^` ^` ^` ^` St. Johns River Basin `^^` `^^` `^ ^` ^` `^^` ^` Calibration gage Calibrated sub-watersheds Ungauged sub-watersheds Sub-watersheds Input - observed flow Input - detailed C-1 model Non-contributing area 0 10 20 40 Miles ^` `^ ^` ^` ^`^`^`^` ^`^` ^` ^` ^` ^` ^` ^`^` ^` ^` ^` ^` `^^` ^` ^` Peer Review Recommendations Re-examine consistency between 1995 and 2030 land use Decrease percent impervious area Increase retention storage for impervious areas Re-examine saturated zone groundwater transpiration Implement surface storage Re-Calibration Implementation of peer review recommendations led to a complete recalibration of the models Fort Drum – 6A Statistic Observed Daily Flow (mgd) (USGS:02231342) Average 34.62 Median 9.69 Variance 5217.99 Standard Deviation 72.24 Skew 4.90 Kurtosis 33.74 Minimum -0.00 Maximum 907.18 Range 907.18 Simulated 34.17 9.81 4707.64 68.61 4.49 29.55 0.00 972.44 972.44 Monthly Rainfall/Hydrograph Average Monthly Flow Flow Exceedance Probability 3 2 0 PABLO CREEK ORTEGA @ KIRWIN ROAD ORTEGA BIG DAVIS CREK @ BAYARD NF BLACK CREEK SF BLACK CREEK ETONIA CREEK RICE CREEK SIMMS CREEK DEEP CREEK AT SPUDS DEEP CREEK AT HASTINGS LITTLE HAW CREEK MIDDLE HAW CREEK ALEXANDER CREEK @ CR 445 ALEXANDER CREEK @… BLACKWATER CREEK @… WEKIVA @ SANFORD LITTLE WEKIVA LITTLE WEKIVA HOWELL CREEK @ SLAVIA HOWELL CREEK @ SR 434 GEE CREEK @ LONGWOOD SOLDIER CREEK @… DEEP CREEK @ OSTEEN ECON @ MAGNOLIA LITTLE ECON @ UNION PARK LITTLE ECON @ SR434 ECON @ CHULUOTA ST JOHNS @ CHRISTMAS ST JOHNS @ COCOA TAYLOR CREEK WOLF CREEK ST JOHNS @ MELBOURNE SIXMILE CREEK JANE GREEN S 96 B S 96C BLUE CYPRESS FT DRUM CRABGRASS CREEK HATCHET CREEK LITTLE HATCHET CREEK BEE TREE CREEK NEWNANS LAKE LOCHLOOSA CREEK LOCHLOOSA LAKE ORANGE LAKE APOPKA OCKLAWAHA @ CONNER LOWER ORANGE CREEK Average Areal Discharge (cfs/sqmi) Areal Discharge Rate Obs Discharge Sim Discharge 6 LSJRB * Includes spring flow * * * + Includes spring & treated wastewater LKGB MSJRB USJRB + + OCKRB 5 4 * + * 1 Calibration Performance Statistical Nash-Sutcliffe measures 1 is perfect fit 0 if the model was equal to the average observed value Percent error of the mean Calibrated Model Results System Results Calibration Performance Performance Nash-Sutcliffe Percent Error Rating (Monthly) of the Mean (Monthly) Very good 0.75 < NSE < 1.00 < ±10 Good 0.65 < NSE < 0.75 ±10 < PEM < ±15 Satisfactory 0.50 < NSE < 0.65 ±15 < PEM < ±25 Unsatisfactory < 0.50 > ±25 Moriasi, D. N., Arnold, J. G., Van Liew, M. W., Bigner, R. L., Harmel, R. D., & Veith, T. L. (2007, vol 50, #3). Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Transactions of ASABE, American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, 885-900. Upper St. Johns Model Planning Flow/Water Unit Level Station Nash- % Error of Sutcliffe the Mean Fort Drum Creek 06A USGS:02231342 0.72 -1.31 Blue Cypress Creek 06B USGS:02231396 0.52 -0.69 S-96C 06B SJR:0098 0.57 6.75 S-96B 06C SJR:0096 0.11 -0.92 Crabgrass Creek 06E USGS:02231565 0.43 -3.55 Jane Green Creek 06E USGS:02231600 0.69 -0.09 Sixmile Creek 06F USGS:02231454 0.60 -0.40 St Johns River near Melbourne 06F USGS:02232000 0.88 -6.22 Wolf Creek near Deer Park 06G USGS:02232200 0.61 -4.86 St Johns River near Cocoa 06G USGS:02232400 0.85 -3.47 Taylor Creek 06G USGS:02232415 0.29 5.74 St Johns River near Christmas 06HI USGS:02232500 0.88 0.42 Middle St. Johns Planning Flow/Water Unit Level Station Model Econlockhatchee River at Magnolia Ranch 04A Little Econlockhatchee River near Union Park 04A Little Econlockhatchee River at State Road 434 04A Nash- % Error of Sutcliffe the Mean USGS:02233001 0.22 17.88 USGS:02233200 0.61 -5.62 USGS:02233475 0.83 -3.00 Econlockhatchee River near Chuluota 04A USGS:02233500 0.72 -1.23 Deep Creek near Osteen 04B USGS:02234100 0.79 0.08 Howell Creek near Slavia 04C USGS:02234324 0.70 1.31 Howell Creek at State Road 434 04C USGS:02234344 0.73 -0.74 Gee Creek near Longwood 04C USGS:02234400 0.60 0.77 Soldier Creek near Longwood 04C USGS:02234384 0.64 -0.39 Blackwater Creek near DeBary 04E SJR:30143084 0.80 -1.35 Wekiva River near Sanford 04E USGS:2235000 0.68 -2.36 Little Wekiva River 04E SJR:09502132 0.66 -1.56 Lake George Model Planning Flow/Water Unit Level Station Nash- % Error of Sutcliffe the Mean Alexander Creek at CR445 05B SJR:18523784 0.79 1.02 Alexander Creek at Tracy Canal 05B SJR:18553786 0.80 2.57 Ocklawaha Flow Model Planning Flow/Water Unit Level Station Nash- % Error of Sutcliffe the Mean Ocklawaha River at Conner 07EF USGS:02240000 0.98 -0.01 Hatchet Creek 07G SJR:01950193 0.80 -0.05 Bee Tree Creek 07G SJR:02850235 0.86 -1.68 Little Hatchet Creek 07G SJR:02840233 0.78 -0.01 Prairie Creek 07G SJR:08631958 0.90 -6.17 Lochloosa Creek 07G SJR:01930189 0.86 -0.65 Orange Lake Weir 07G SJR:02601462 0.90 -21.93 Lower Orange Creek 07G USGS:02243000 0.94 -4.45 Ocklawaha Water Level Model Planning Flow/Water Unit Level Station Nash- % Error of Sutcliffe the Mean Newnans Lake 07G SJR:04831007 0.86 -0.05 Orange Lake 07G SJR:02611465 0.97 0.03 Lochloosa Lake 07G SJR:71481615 0.88 -0.05 Apopka 07BCD USGS:02237700 0.85 0.05 Lower St. Johns Model Planning Flow/Water Unit Level Station Nash- % Error of Sutcliffe the Mean Little Haw Creek 03A USGS:02244420 0.62 -1.94 Middle Haw Creek 03A USGS:02244320 0.74 -1.72 Etonia Creek 03B USGS:02245050 0.69 1.77 Rice Creek 03B USGS:02244473 0.80 -3.08 Simms Creek 03B USGS:02245140 0.66 -3.11 North Fork Black Creek 03C USGS:02246000 0.81 -1.12 South Fork Black Creek 03C USGS:02245500 0.75 -2.78 Ortega at Jacksonville 03D USGS:02246300 0.70 -13.19 Deep Creek at Spuds 03F USGS:02245260 0.68 0.34 Big Davis Creek at Bayard 03H USGS:02246150 0.65 -1.79 Pablo Creek at Jacksonville 03I USGS:02246828 0.65 -4.93