Goldsmith’s teachers lecture 2010 Medical statistics Joan Morris Professor of Medical Statistics Aims • To describe medical statistics • To give examples of where medical statistics has contributed to society • Use of statistics in screening • To mention some novel statistical methods Statistics - definition Statistics is a mathematical science pertaining to the collection, analysis, interpretation or explanation, and presentation of data. Data Collection Data Collection • Florence Nightingale – She realised that soldiers were dying from malnutrition, poor sanitation, and lack of activity. – She kept meticulous records of the death toll in the hospitals as evidence of the importance of patient welfare. National Data Collection • National Mortality Statistics • Health survey for England and Wales • Population statistics ….. • Large amounts of data are available on the web Standardised mortality ratios: Mortality from skin cancer All births in England and Wales according to maternal age :1989-91 compared with 2005-2007 200 150 2005-07 : 1991,000 births 1989-91 : 2090,000 births 100 50 0 15 20 25 30 35 Maternal age at birth (years) 40 45 50 Epidemiology Epidemiology Comparisons of individuals Comparisons of populations Observational cross-sectional case-control studies cohort studies Time trends Interventional Randomised controlled trials Ecological studies: Geographical variations Age/sex patterns Social variations Comparison of Individuals • Study Design – Ensure “valid” data is collected – Ensure enough data is collected • Main designs – Case control studies – Cohort studies – Clinical trials Richard Doll (doctor) and Austin Bradford Hill (statistician) Is there a relationship between smoking and lung cancer? British Doctors Cohort Study (BMJ 1994;309:901-911) 34,000 British male doctors who replied to a postal questionnaire in 1951 and further questionnaires in 1957, 66, 72, 78, 90, … Flagged the doctors at NHSCR and obtained their death certificates as they died. Compared death rates in smokers and non-smokers.. Is there a relationship between smoking and lung cancer? Number of cigarettes smoked per day None Risk of dying from lung cancer compared to non smokers 1.0 1 to 9 4.1 10 to 19 10.5 20 to 30 23.6 More than 30 41.9 What causes Sudden Infant Death Syndrome ? • Sudden Infant Death Syndrome Case Control Study • Methods – Collected information about infants that were potential “SIDS” – Identified “similar” children who had not died – Compared the differences • Results – Children who died were much more likely to have been put on their fronts to sleep than children who did not die Randomised Controlled Trial • A clinical trial is an experiment in which a treatment is administered to humans in order to evaluate its efficacy and safety • Randomised = allocated to groups on basis of chance e.g. tossing a coin (ensures fair comparison) • Controlled = a comparison group Can folic acid reduce neural tube defects (e.g. spina bifida)? • MRC Vitamin trial - randomised controlled trial • Large: 1817 women who had had a previous NTD, 33 centres, 7 countries Can folic acid reduce neural tube defects (e.g. spina bifida)? • Results : Women who did not receive folic acid were 3 times more likely to have a second NTD pregnancy • Impact : Women are advised to take folic acid prior to becoming pregnant • Majority of countries around the world fortify flour with folic acid Collection of Data • Study Design – Cohort – Case Control – Clinical Trial Analysis • Could the observed results have arisen by chance ? • Given that we have a sample what can we say about the population from which the sample comes Folic Acid vs Placebo for Neural Tube Defects Neural Tube Defects Folic Acid Yes No Total Yes 6 587 593 No 21 581 602 Risk of NTD in treated group Risk of NTD in control group = = Relative Risk of NTD in treated group compared to control group = 1% 3.5% 1%/3.5% = 0.29 P values • P is the probability of the observed event or one more extreme occurring if the null hypothesis is true • Null hypothesis : No difference in treatments • P = probability out of 27 babies with an NTD what is the chance that 6 or less are in the FA group and 21 in placebo group IF FA has no effect P values • These are just probability calculations with prob NTD in group A = prob NTD in group B • And comparing numbers of combinations of obtaining a total of 21 NTDs Interpreting the results of a trial No. treated No. died A 20 4 B 20 2 A 100 20 B 100 10 A 200 40 B 200 20 RR death in A vs B = 2.0 Is it due to chance or not ? Mainly Yes P = 0.37 Split Yes / No P = 0.07 Mainly No P = 0.008 P values • P < 0.05 is taken to mean statistical significance • This means if there is no difference between treatments, and you do 20 trials one will be statistically significant Folic Acid vs Placebo for Neural Tube Defects RR = 0.29 P = 0.008 Therefore we assume there is a real difference between the folic acid group and the placebo group But how big is the reduction ? Folic Acid vs Placebo for Neural Tube Defects RR = 0.29 P = 0.008 95% Confidence Interval : 0.10 to 0.76 95% confidence intervals means that 95% of the time this interval contains the true reduction Therefore it gives an indication of the likely size of the reduction 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Folic Acid and NTD Dose Response 0 2 4 6 Plasma folate (ng/ml) 8 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Folic Acid and NTD Dose Response 2 4 Plasma folate (ng/ml) 6 8 10 Interpretation • The same proportional increase in serum folate has the same proportional reduction in NTD • All women benefit from taking folic acid. There is not a threshold effect So far…. • Collection – Nightingale – National statistics – Study design • Presentation – Estimates and confidence intervals • Analysis – Vital to interpretation Use of Statistics in Screening Screening is the identification, among apparently healthy individuals, of those who are sufficiently at risk from a specific disorder to benefit from a subsequent diagnostic test, procedure or direct preventive action. Screening for Heart Disease Relative odds of major IHD event by fifths of the distribution of haemostatic and lipid markers for all men (•——•) and for men free of IHD at baseline examination (∘–––∘). Yarnell J et al. Eur Heart J 2004;25:1049-1056 The European Society of Cardiology Unaffected Affected Biomarker : ZZ Unaffected Affected Biomarker : ZZ Screen negative Screen positive False negatives False positives FPR=5% Unaffected Affected Biomarker : ZZ Screen negative Screen positive Screening for a medical disorder Good test Affected Unaffected Risk Factor Screening for a medical disorder Poor test Affected Unaffected Risk Factor Is Cholesterol any good for screening ? 8 6 4 2 Risk screen converter .2 .4 fol .6 .8 http://www.wolfson.qmul. ac.uk/rsc/ Unaffected Affected Detection Rate False Positive Rate 4.2mm Hg 7.5mm Hg • Are there any good screening tests ? Antenatal screening for Down’s syndrome Quadruple test markers AFP Down’s syndrome 0.25 uE3 Unaffected 0.5 1 2 Unaffected Down’s syndrome 4 8 16 0.25 0.5 Maternal serum AFP (MoM) 1 0.25 0.5 2 8 16 8 16 Inhibin-A Unaffected Down’s syndrome 1 4 Maternal serum uE3 (MoM) Total hCG Unaffected 2 4 Maternal serum total hCG (MoM) 8 16 0.25 0.5 Down’s syndrome 1 2 4 Maternal serum inhibin-A (MoM) Distribution of risk in Down’s syndrome and unaffected pregnancies using AFP, uE3, total hCG and inhibin-A measured at 14-20 weeks (+ maternal age) Unaffected Down’s syndrome 1:108 1:106 1:104 1:102 1:10 102:1 Risk of a Down’s syndrome pregnancy at term 104:1 Analysis based on…. • Understanding probability • Properties of combinations of random variables • Properties of normal distribution • Understanding hypothesis testing Recent Developments • • • • Collection Analysis Interpretation or explanation Presentation Collection • Danish mother and child study – Recruiting people on the internet • Linking data sets – Probability linking eg • Date of mother’s birth fairly accurate • Gestational age of baby often wrong • Weight of baby –REALLY ACCURATE !!! Analysis • • • • Meta-analysis Monte-carlo simulations Bayesian analysis Analysis of micro-arrays Several studies looking at the same thing • Each study may be relatively inconclusive because of too much uncertainty (too small) • Statistical (mathematical) method of combining and presenting results from several studies • Can indicate more robust results Pooled odds ratio for thiazolidinediones compared with other treatments for all cause mortality Eurich, D. T et al. BMJ 2007;335:497 Forest plot Proportions dying in each group Copyright ©2007 BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. Odds ratio Relies on the logarithm of the odds ratio being approximately normally distributed Comparing institutions, individual doctors and identifying outliers • What’s the problem? – Lots of variables important – Random variation – Random variation greater for smaller units or institutions • Way of presenting the values for units so that this is taken into account Funnel plot Conclusion • As much about collection, interpretation and presentation as calculation • Concepts of random variables, probability feed into analyses • Making sense out of uncertainty • Changing techniques as times change