Census Bureau Updates SDC Affiliates Fall Meetings Salem, Oregon Seattle, Washington September 16 & 19, 2014 1 Releases / Updates American Community Survey 2020 Decennial Census Data tools and apps 2 American Community Survey 3 Fall 2014 Releases 4 5 Data Product Planed Release Date Population Size of Area 2013 ACS 1-Year Estimates September 18 , 2014 65,000 + 2011-2013 ACS 3-Year Estimates October 23, 2014 20,000 + 2009-2013 ACS 5-Year Estimates December 4, 2014 All Geographies The American Community Survey is the only source of local statistics for most of the 40 topics it covers - - such as education, occupation, language, ancestry and housing costs - - for even the smallest communities. 6 7 7 Questionnaire Topics American Community Survey (ACS) Demographic Sex Age Race Ethnicity Household Relationship Group Quarters Social Families Education Marital Status Fertility Grandparent Caregivers Veterans Disability Status Language at Home Citizenship Migration Economic Income Poverty Food Stamps / SNAP Employment Status Occupation Industry Journey to Work Place of Work Health Insurance Housing Tenure Occupancy Structure Housing Value Taxes / Insurance Utilities Mortgage Monthly Rent Vehicles Items in red were also collected on the 2010 Census 8 Content Review 9 Information Gathering Field Representative Survey: May 2014 • 1,063 responses from six Regional Offices and three Contact Centers (representing 96.6% response rate from 1,125 interviewers in sample) • 6 questions concerning perceived intrusiveness, burden, sensitivity for each item on the questionnaire • 3 most “problematic” ACS questions based on preliminary score and number of mentions • Income – wages • Type of Internet access • Property value 10 Information Gathering Data user feedback form: June-July • Received 932 responses, representing 3,405 total mentions of high-value or frequently-used questions • Most important or most frequently used ACS questions • How did this person usually get to work last week? (457) • What is the highest degree or level of school this person has completed? (283) • What was this person's total income during the past 12 months? (247) 11 Information Gathering Advisory Committee Input: May-July Working Group • Kickoff held with Census Bureau May 8 • Met to review questions for value/burden to stakeholder communities and to document example uses • Developed a report of their recommendations • Presented results to NAC Committee August 6 Findings Perceived intrusiveness and burden considered Nearly all questions found to be of benefit to small population groups and small geographic areas 12 Information Gathering Federal agencies input: April-July • Participation from 23 agencies representing over 300 uses • Majority of agencies reporting same number or more uses over the OMB 2012 process • Commerce OGC has made a strong commitment to this project and is heavily engaged in legal reviews of all the input to provide the legal opinion on the statutory basis for cited uses 13 Analysis Analytic approach is determined Methodology documentation is underway Decision memo on business rules – 1st Draft (June) Decision memo on selection criteria – 1st Draft (July) Full methodological description with appendices for each data input stream – 1st Draft (July) To mitigate potential bias, criteria prespecified prior to review of data inputs 14 14 Next Steps Develop recommendations from analysis: August Report out findings: August - December Federal Register notice (60 day comment period): October - December Vet responses received through Federal Register notice: December Make decisions that inform the OMB package: December – January Submit OMB package: Early Spring 2015 15 Content Review - Milestones 16 Current ACS Challenges Issue Congressional Discussion Burden Intrusiveness Harassment Defund or Eliminate Survey Mandatory Voluntary Penalties Reduce or Eliminate Survey 17 Issue: Mandatory vs. Voluntary Respondent participation mandatory (current) • Most respond on their own (59% self-response rate) • Phone & field interviews boost overall response rate (97.4%) Impact of voluntary • Testing found survey costs would increase by at least $90 million annually • Reduced quality due to (1) declines in participation and (2) number of completed interviews (rather than increase in survey errors) • Inability to release estimates for small geographies and small population subgroups 18 ACS Data Uses Project 19 What are we collecting? Examples of how the ACS data are used Subjects and geographic areas Type of data user Data product used 20 Why is it important to collect? Based on the challenges, communicate better the importance and utility of the ACS data to: (1) the public, (2) congressional leaders, (3) local / state / federal agencies, and (4) businesses, among others Get a better understanding of the ways ACS data are used Information can feed into the content review process Information may impact our data products plan Outreach messaging can be targeted for groups with similar data needs/uses 21 How Will Information Be Used? May request testimonials to support and validate the ACS • For educational or promotional purposes • Organizations may be asked to do a video on how they use ACS data • Information requested by executives and Congress will be readily available 22 ACS Improvements 23 Survey Improvements Sample Reallocation Objective: improve the reliability of the estimates for small areas (under 20,000 population) • Increased sampling rates for small tracts and governmental units • Slightly decreased sampling rates in larger tracts Begun in January 2011 • First result: 2011-2015 ACS 5-year estimates, to be released December 2016 24 Survey Improvements ACS Sample Expansion Sample expanded from 2.9 million to 3.54 million addresses per year Sample increase began for o Mailout in June 2011 o CATI in July 2011 o CAPI in August 2011 25 Survey Improvements Expected Results Five Year Coefficients of Variation (CVs) for typical tracts, by size where red > yellow > green CVs after reallocation, before sample expansion (2.9M) CVs after reallocation and sample expansion (3.54M) Tract Size Category Average Tract Size CVs before reallocation and sample expansion 0 – 400 291 66% 41% 35% 401 – 1,000 766 41% 30% 25% 1,001 – 2,000 1,485 29% 29% 25% 2,000 – 4,000 2,636 26% 29% 25% 4,000 – 6,000 4,684 19% 29% 25% 6,000 + 8,337 15% 28% 25% 26 Survey Improvements Internet Response Option Ongoing digital transformation 61st U.S. Census Bureau survey with Internet response option Households in sample receive letter with login instructions to secure website Participants have the ability to review responses Assistance available to respondents Advantages More convenient for respondents More cost-effective Secure and confidential 27 Available beginning 2013 https://respond.census.gov/acs 28 2020 Decennial Census 29 The Context Census Cost per Housing Unit (2010$) $200.00 $181 Rising costs of 2010 Census largely driven by three factors: (1) Declining self-response rates requiring the hiring of a large field staff (2) Paper-based and laborintensive methods requiring a large field infrastructure (3) Substantial investments in major, national updating of the address frame just prior to the enumeration (2009) $180.00 $160.00 $140.00 $120.00 $108 $100.00 $80.00 $70 $60.00 $40 $40.00 $20.00 $29 $14 $0.00 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 (estd) 2020 (proj) (Projected cost for 2020 assumes no change in design and past patterns of cost growth; also includes the costs for American Community Survey) 30 Goals The strategic outcome is to develop a design which strikes a balance between delivering the highest quality census while reducing costs and managing risks. The 2020 Census has four strategic goals: • • • • An accurate and complete census Embraced and valued results An efficient census A well-managed census 31 31 2014 Census Test Where/When Is Test Being Conducted? Approximately 190,000 housing units • Part of Montgomery County, MD • Part of Washington, DC Temporary field office in Silver Spring, MD End of June through September • “Census Day” (reference date) was July 1, 2014 32 2014 Census Test Overall Goals Making decennial headcount quick, easy, and safe for all to participate Provide substantial taxpayer savings while maintaining commitment to high quality and accuracy • Smart use of technology • Use of existing government data sources (administrative records) 33 2014 Census Test Why These Locations? Sites meet criteria for highly developed (urban) areas near less developed areas Size of sites provides efficient and cost effective ways to test workloads Sites’ proximity to Census Bureau Headquarters in Suitland, MD allows for easy, cost-effective observation 34 2014 Census Test Why These Locations? Subset* of non-responding households in these two test sites will receive in-person visits to test alternative field data collection procedures *In areas chosen based on demographic factors that include the following . . . 35 2014 Census Test Why These Locations? Vacancy rates Household size 2010 Census response rates Mix of residences owned or rented, and single- or multi-unit Age of householders in area Householder race and ethnicity Availability of administrative records 36 2014 Census Test What is the Census Bureau Testing? Strategies to encourage householders to respond via mail, Internet, and other options (“self-response”) Strategies to target in-person interviews to more efficiently follow-up with households that do not self-respond (“nonresponse follow-up” or “NRFU”) 37 2014 Census Test What Is the Scope of the Test? Internet self-response mode and contact strategies for Internet preregistration E-mail and automated voice invitations Mobile devices used by field staff to enumerate non-responding households Alternative NRFU contact strategies Use of administrative records to identify cases to remove from nonresponse workload Use of adaptive design methodologies to manage field enumerator work assignments 38 2014 Census Test What’s on the Questionnaire? Wording changes from 2010 Census • Testing changes on race and Hispanic origin questions, combining race and ethnicity into one question • Testing new response categories for opposite sex and same-sex husband/wife/spouse and unmarried partner relationships, both on the Internet and on paper data collection questionnaires 39 2014 Census Test Will There Be Other Tests? Additional testing activities planned for 2015 and subsequent years • Plans still under development • Will likely be conducted in different geographic areas across the United States 40 2014 Census Test Important Terms Self-response • Where households complete and return their census questionnaire in a timely manner (includes Internet response) – require no inperson follow-up visit Administrative records • Collected by government agencies to run or administer a program (IRS, for example) 41 2014 Census Test Will Results Be Released? Test is designed to measure how well a variety of new technologies and censustaking methods work • Not designed to obtain a complete and accurate count • Official population counts will not be released Test will support the critical research on potential methods for the 2020 Census 42 Data Tools and Apps 43 Homepage: census.gov 44 Developers & Mobile Apps Data Tab 45 Developers Page 46 Mobile Apps Economic Indicators 47 Mobile Apps Dwellr 48 Mobile Apps Pop Quiz (of States) 49 Census Homepage: census.gov QuickFacts QuickFacts Population threshold: 5,000 Geographies: State, county, place Topics: Current demographic, business, & geography facts, and links to historic data (through “Browse data sets”) 50 census.gov > Data Tab > Data Tools and Apps Census Explorer 51 Four Editions Census Explorer 52 Census Explorer Census Explorer (thematic maps) Sources: 2012 American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2011 County Business Patterns, Census 2000, & 1990 Census Geographies: U.S., state, county, census tract Topics: Variety of demographic (currently 11) and economic (currently 6) variables 53 census.gov > Data Tab > Data Tools and Apps Easy Stats 54 Easy Stats Easy Stats Geographies: State, county, place Topics: Financial, jobs, housing, people, education -- all variables are crossed with race and ethnicity 55 Easy Stats 56 American FactFinder (AFF): factfinder2.census.gov Census Homepage: census.gov 57 factfinder2.census.gov American FactFinder (AFF) 58 Help American FactFinder 59 Assistance with AFF • Click Help (AFF mainpage, top right) • • • • • • • • • • • • Online User Guide Virtual Tour Community Facts Guided Search Advanced Search Download Options Using Data Tables Maps Narrative Profiles Tutorials Glossary 60 Community Facts American FactFinder (AFF) Community Facts tab 61 factfinder2.census.gov American FactFinder (AFF) Community Facts tab 62 AFF Community Facts Each of the 10 filter bars presents a single variable for the selected geography, as well as links to additional tables for the same topic and the same geographic area 63 factfinder2.census.gov American FactFinder (AFF) Guided Search tab 64 Recommended for Novice Data Users AFF Guided Search User answers prompts, then clicks “Next” or a numbered arrow to proceed -- arrows 1 through 4 may be selected in any order 65 factfinder2.census.gov American FactFinder (AFF) Advanced Search tab 66 AFF Advanced Search Filter bars facilitate searches. Object is to select filters, such as Topics, to refine search. All filters will appear in the Your Selections box to be applied to the final table selection. 67 Topics Filter Bar 68 “People” Menu Expanded 69 Product Type = Table Format See page 8 of the Quick Reference Guide for full descriptions of product types 70 Census Programs on AFF Alphabetical listing of all programs loaded on American FactFinder 71 Datasets on AFF Latest release is at the top of the list 72 Key Word Search 73 census.gov Footer Census & ACS Questionnaires 74 census.gov Footer > About Us > History Census Questionnaires 75 Census Questionnaires Archive 76 census.gov Footer > People & Households > ACS ACS Questionnaires 77 Workshop Information and Data Questions Linda Clark Data Dissemination Specialist Pacific Northwest & Alaska U.S. Census Bureau Los Angeles Region linda.clark@census.gov Mobile: 206-446-8794 Los Angeles Regional Office 818-267-1725 or 888-806-6389 (toll-free ) 78