Understanding Falkenmark’s Concept of
Water Crowding in the Context of
Limpopo Province South Africa:
Facing the Human Security Dilemma
Polokwane, South Africa. Each white cross represents
a farm murder since the advent of democracy in 1994.
Anthony Turton
Presentation to the Royal Swedish Academy of Science
Stockholm
21 October 2011
tony@anthonyturton.com
Image: Anthony Turton 2011.
Layout of Presentation
• Water Crowding as a concept.
• Statistics for the Limpopo River basin in
South Africa.
• Recent developments that raise alarm.
– Could Water Crowding become a driver of
Genocide?
• Conclusion
– My Hypothesis of Water Crowding as a Possible
Driver of Genocide.
Water Crowding as a Concept
Malin Falkenmark developed the concept of Water Crowding in the 1980’s. Also known as
the Hydraulic Density of Population, this index has now become a global benchmark for
sustainability.
No empirical evidence exists of a stable political system and economy with a Water
Crowding Index above 2,000 – an exception being Israel (a highly technological society
with massive external support from the USA). This shifts the focus to technology, because
theoretically it is possible to grow economies beyond the “Water Barrier” if smart policies
induce technological solutions. This also raises the issue of leadership.
Source: Pallett et al., 1997
Water Crowding Index (Ashton et al., 2008)
Water Crowding Index (WCI) = Number of people per million cubic
metres of water
River Basin
Orange-Senqu
Limpopo
Incomati
Maputo
2000
Population
WCI
11 319
1 183
11 906
4 219
1 122
1 552
1 165
1 376
2025
Population
WCI
19 502
1 803
18 790
4 974
1 933
2 310
2 009
2 366
South Africa will be defying global indicators if it attains sustained
economic growth and social stability with these hydrological
fundamentals.
Remember, little empirical evidence exists of social stability and
economic development above a value of 2000.
South Africa has a water-
MEAN
ANNUAL
RAINFALL
constrained economy – in 2004 98%
of the national water resource had
been allocated at a high Assurance
of Supply level – so we function at
the very limits of sustainability.
D. R. C.
The Limpopo River basin
is over-allocated so it is
closed.
ANGOLA
TANZANIA
ZAMBIA
MOZABIQUE
MALAWI
Mean Annual
Rainfall (mm)
ZIMBABWE
= 860 mm isohyet
NAMIBIA
BOTSWANA
= World average rainfall
SADC Average Annual
Rainfall = 948 mm
SOUTH
AFRICA
© PJ Ashton
0
250
500 km
SWAZILAND
LESOTHO
2500
2000
1500
1250
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Characteristics
of Closed Basins
• Water resources have
been over-allocated so
competition is high.
• Economic development
potential is severely
constrained.
•Job creation is limited.
•Sustainable livelihoods
are under pressure.
•Can state failure be
linked to water crowding?
•Can water crowding
trigger genocide?
Closed River Basins in
Southern Africa
Source: Turton et al., 2008.
Percentage Increase in Water Needs
by sector - 2025 (Ashton, 2009)
River Basin
Urban
Rural
Irrigation
Mining +
Power
Forestry
Industry Generation
2000 to 2025
Orange-Senqu
+ 77
- 10
- 7
- 10
+ 37
0
Limpopo
+ 146
+ 27
+9
+ 30
+ 26
+3
Incomati
+ 145
+ 3
+5
+ 5
0
+5
Maputo
+ 126
- 3
- 3
+ 1
0
- 4
The
Limpopo River Basin, already over-allocated by about
1. Dramatic increase in urban sector demand for water in all basins
120%, has an extremely high WCI, and is facing a 241%
2. Large increase in power sector demand for water in the Orange-Senqu
increase in demand by 2025.
and Limpopo basins
3. Could
Increased this
watertrigger
demands social
from ruralinstability
and mining sectors
and inbecome
Limpopo basin
genesis of state failure or genocide?
the
Understanding the Rwanda Genocide
• The resource scarcity was land (and not water).
• Driven by population growth.
• Cultural practice dictated that a man could only marry once he had
enough land to sustain his wife and family.
• Inheritance customs resulted in smaller parcels of land.
• Genocide reset the clock.
• Build-up was characterized by mass mobilization driven by populist
sloganeering.
• The word “Cockroaches” was used in this rhetoric.
• Masses were programmed to kill.
• The world failed to intervene for a variety of reasons.
• The daily killing rate exceeded that of the Holocaust for the duration
of the event (Ohlsson, 1999).
Populist rhetoric is
labelling opposition
members as
“cockroaches” and
other vermin that is
normally
“exterminated”.
Genocide Watch International
• Placed South Africa on Stage 5 (Polarization Phase) in 2002
because of the systematic and indiscriminate killing of white
commercial farmers (the image on the Title slide).
• 900 Farmers were attacked and 140 were killed in 2001.
• 1991 – 2001 saw 5,594 attacks on white farmers with 1,000
murders.
• Per capita murder rate against white farmers is 311 per
100,000 in 2001, with 2.2% ethno-European farmers having
been killed by then, 12% having been attacked.
• 15 Sept 2011 Genocide Watch downgrades South Africa to
Stage 6 (Preparation) citing Julius Malema’s “Kill the Boer”
campaign.
• The ruling party refuses to back off on claims that this is a
“struggle song” to be protected as a cultural right.
• President Zuma continues to sing “Umshini Wami”.
Is Julius Malema Genocidal?
Is President Zuma’s Leadership Conducive
to Genocide?
President Zuma’s
theme song for reelection is
“Awuleth Umshini
Wami” which
means “Bring back
my Machine Gun”.
Is This The Road to Anarchy?
Xenophobic
violence
erupted in
South Africa in
2007 and was
accompanied
by scenes
extreme
Such
are reminiscent
brutality
of the
time just prior to the
democratic transition in
1994. (See Shaking Hands
with Billy for details)
Protests in Johannesburg
Aug/Sept 2011 supporting
Xenophobic
Malema’s right to sing “Kill
attacks
the Boer” after court
ruling
persist
in
that this is hate
speech.
2011
The
population
is brutalized
with a
collective
lack of
empathy
The answers might lie in Limpopo Province
This is where Julius Malema comes from and this is where his grassroots support is based
Water constraints to economic
development are profound.
Malema is now calling for “regime change” in
Botswana, the one country that might give
access to the Zambezi River, and thus relief in
the future.
Image: Anthony Turton
Conclusion
• Water is posing finite constraints to economic
development in the Limpopo Basin.
• Social Ingenuity is needed to solve these fundamental
problems.
• This is not being allowed to grow because of the
leadership meltdown and institutional collapse.
• Zuma’s leadership is based on the raw emotion of
“Umshini Wami” which glorifies armed violence.
• Malema’s leadership style resonates with the millions
of disaffected youth and creates a discernable “enemy”.
• Farm killings continue with no evidence emerging that
the police force is regarding this as a credible threat.
Water Scarcity inhibits
economic growth.
Hypothesis
Driving poverty and
raising frustration levels.
Which are exploited by
political leadership by
identifying an easily
defined “enemy”.
This can result in
xenophobic violence or
genocide where a clearly
defined “enemy” exists.
In the absence of wise
national leadership and a
credible police force.
Leadership and the
capacity of the state to
mobilize social capital is
the critical variable.
While I have been sceptical about the notion of
genocide in South Africa, I am starting to see evidence
of state failure, and the growth of xenophobic violence
has to be taken seriously.
I no longer believe that genocide is impossible in South
Africa, and I am starting to believe that Malin
Falkenmark’s notion of a “Water Barrier” has a lot of
hidden truths still to be explored by serious scientists.
Thank You
And I hope I am wrong!
http://www.shakinghandswithbilly.com
Image: Anthony Turton 2011.