Climate vulnerability &
adaptation
in the Dutch delta
Jelle van Minnen
23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels
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The Netherlands
Setting:
 Small country with a
population of 17 million
 Delta of four river basins
 26% is below sea level
 60% is susceptible
to flooding
 Flood-sensitive area
is densely populated
 High level of flood
protection
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Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET
Vulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta
The past…
Large plans implemented as response to floods
 1916 floods (North)
 Structural solutions with dams and barriers
(Afsluitdijk dam to create IJsselmeer)
 1953 flood disaster (South-West)
 First Delta Committee
 Structural solutions with dams and barriers
(Delta Works)
 1993/1995 high water levels (Rivers, large
evacuations)
 Also spatial solutions: Room for the
River/Meuse Projects
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Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET
Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
Delta under pressure: Challenges for the future
More/intense
rainfall
More /extreme
storms
Spatial
developments
Sealevel rise
Increased
erosion
Decreased
river
discharge
Salt
intrusion
Subsidence
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Increased
river
discharge
JJelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET
Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
Climate Change Challenges in the Netherlands
1. ARK & adaptation Strategy (2007)
2. State Committee Veerman (2008)
Dutch Delta Programme & Delta Act
 Started in 2010
 Objective: A safe and attractive
country, also at the end of the century
 Annual update to parliament
 5 D’s
 Focus
PBL study on IVA
 Started in 2009
 Broad assessment
 2 steps
– Impacts & vulnerability
– Strategic options
– Flood protection
– Freshwater supply
–5 (Re)development of built-up areasJelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels
Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
The five Dutch D’s
 Delta Programme
 Delta Act (to ensure continuity)
– Delta Commissioner
– Delta Fund
 Delta Decisions (2014/2015)
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Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels
Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
Delta programme now – 2015
Ongoing implementations & programs under DP:
 Improve current satefy level
–Flood Protection Program / Weak Links in Coast
– Organizing safety on the basis of dyke
inspections
– Room for the River / Meuse Projects
– 90 projects along the rivers
At the same time looking further ahead:
 Preparing Delta Decisions (2015)
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Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels
Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
Delta decisions, 2015
Safety standards
Urban restructuring
Freshwater
• 3 national decisions:
• Safety standards + program
• Urban and spatial
restructuring
• Freshwater strategy
+measures
• 2 regional decisions
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Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels
Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
PBL report ‘Climate adaptation in the Dutch delta’
 Both impacts & adatation assessment
 Adaptation: Step towards solutions:
what can be done?
 Identification of strategic options:
–
–
–
–
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Flood protection
Freshwater supplies & water quality
Nature & biodiversity
Urban development
Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels
Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
PBL report ‘Climate change impacts in the Netherlands’
 Cooperation with: KNMI, Deltares, WUR, Utrecht Uni.,
Maastricht Uni.
 Assessment observed & projected Opportunities & risks
 Sectors/chapters:
–
–
–
–
–
–
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Climate System
Water: safety & supply & quality
Nature & biodiversity
Agriculture
Health
Tourism
Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels
Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
I: Flood protection
Risk depends on upstream measures
new
current
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Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels
Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
I: Flood protection
 Problem: rising sea level and increasing river discharges
 Risk = probability x
effect
Present policy PBL advice
 Option 1 adjustments to built-up areas (long-term proces)
 Option 2 application of ‘Delta dykes’ (= unbreachable)
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Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels
Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
Delta dykes: almost unbreachable
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Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels
Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
Advantages of Delta dykes
 Strong decrease in
casualties (50-80%)
 Strong reduction in
economic losses
 Efforts for adjusting
built-up area reduced
 Less vulnerable to
unexpected extremes
caused by climate
change
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Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels
Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
Disadvantage: Delta dykes more costly
Present policy
1500 km
Delta dykes
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Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels
Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
Summary (i)
Impacts
 Many changes have been observed. But not everything is
changing yet.
 Some future changes are more uncertain than others (even
sign)
 Despite multiple future changes, in general NL is climate
robust
 Critical issue for the Netherlands is fresh water availability,
nature & health
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Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels
Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
Summary (ii)
Adaptation options & strategies
 Fundamenal choices needed for more climate-resilient NL
– Unbreachable dykes
– Climate-proofing freshwater supplies needs more flexible water
system & better use of water in river Rhine.
– Implementation of climate-proofing measures in urban
development requires early integration in planning and decision
making and flexibility in financing mechanisms.
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Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels
Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
Report ‘Climate adaptation in the Dutch delta’
www.pbl.nl/en
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Jelle van Minnen 23 May 2012, EIONET, Brussels
Vulnerability & Adaptation in the Dutch delta
II: Freshwater supplies
 Problem: in most dry scenario tipping point near 2050
if water demand increases, before 2050
 Challenge:
Enough fresh water in dry summers
 Balancing water supply  demand
PBL advice:
1.Increase flexibility in water systems
2.Increase efficiency of water use for both national and
regional waters
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Jelle van Minnen & Willem Ligtvoet, 5 March 2012
Vulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta
Option flexibility in water supply: national waters
New Waterway
80% of Rhine
flow
 Even in extremely dry
summers, 80% of the
available Rhine water
is used to prevent
salinisation by the New
Waterway
 Here, salinisation could
be prevented using less
fresh water
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Jelle van Minnen & Willem Ligtvoet, 5 March 2012
Vulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta
Flexibility in water supply:
 Since Committee Veerman
strong focus on IJsselmeer
(water level + 1.5 meter)
New Waterway:
of national
importance
 PBL: Focus on better use of
Rhine water.
 10% of Rhine at New
Waterway ≈ 1 meter
water-level fluctuation
in IJsselmeer
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Jelle van Minnen & Willem Ligtvoet, 5 March 2012
Vulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta
Flexibility in water supply: Better use of Rhine water
 Since Committee Veerman
strong focus on IJsselmeer
(water level + 1.5 meter)
New Waterway:
of national
importance
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 PBL: Focus on better use of
Rhine water.
Flexibility in water demand:
 No overview of potential effects of measures per region
 Main uses are for agriculture and water-level management
 Options to address drought risks without extra water supplies:
– Accept drought losses, or insure them
– Large-scale water storage in regions: not cost-effective
– Adjust crops: choices are dominated by markets, not by water
– Adjust regional water management: seems no regret
 Studies indicate:
– Reduction in water use of 40 – 80% seems possible at low costs,
for instance by accepting flexible salinisation standards in extreme dry
years
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Jelle van Minnen & Willem Ligtvoet, 5 March 2012
Vulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta
IV: Urban areas
 Problem: flood risks, increasing water nuisances, heat risks
Challenge:
A climate-proof development of urban areas
PBL advice:
 Knowledge, expertise and effective measures are available
 Flexibility in urban infrastructure is limited
 Integration of adaptation measures in new urban
development, redevelopment or maintainance programme
today is needed to reduce additional costs in the future
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Jelle van Minnen & Willem Ligtvoet, 5 March 2012
Vulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta
Measures and actors on different scales
COMPLEX network
of public and private
actors
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Potential measures
 Use of buildings
 Insulation of buildings
 Adjust treshold height
 Water retention within streets
 Street vegetation
 …
 …
 Water retention under streets
 Upgrade sewerage system
 Create ponds and parcs
 Thermal storage systems
 …
 Green networks
 Blue networks
Jelle van Minnen & Willem Ligtvoet, 5 March 2012
Vulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta
Preconditions for seizing opportunities
 Integration of climate adaptation early on, in planning and
design processes
 Clear responsibilities
 Integration in decisionmaking process
 More flexibility in financing
mechanisms
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Jelle van Minnen & Willem Ligtvoet, 5 March 2012
Vulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta
PBL report ‘Climate change impacts in the Netherlands’ (iv)
Nature & Biodiversity
Observed
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Projected
Jelle van Minnen & Willem Ligtvoet, 5 March 2012
Vulnerability& Adaptation in the Dutch delta