Arab Climate Resilience Initiative
First Regional Consultation Meeting
“Climate Change Impacts in the Arab Region: Water Scarcity,
Drought and Population Mobility”
Regional Synopsis of Adaptation
to Climate Change
By
Balgis Osman-Elasha (PhD)
Damascus – Syrian Arab Republic
15-16 September 2010
Presentation outline
Background
Vulnerability and Adaptation
Adaptation Efforts in the region
Conclusions
Background
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Vulnerability (IPCC definition)
The degree to which a system is
susceptible to, or unable to cope with,
adverse effects of CC including climate
variability & extremes.
It is a function of the magnitude, and rate
of change to which a system is exposed,
its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.
Risk : is the overlay of hazard and vulnerability
Disasters : are the realisation of risk
HAZARD
RISK
VULNERABILITY
Developing Countries Are Most At Risk
Drought
Flood
Storm
Coastal 1m
Coastal 5m
Agriculture
Malawi
Bangladesh
Philippines
All low-lying Island
States
All low-lying Island
States
Sudan
Ethiopia
China
Bangladesh
Vietnam
Netherlands
Senegal
Zimbabwe
India
Madagascar
Egypt
Japan
Zimbabwe
India
Cambodia
Vietnam
Tunisia
Bangladesh
Mali
Mozambique
Mozambique
Moldova
Indonesia
Philippines
Zambia
Niger
Laos
Mongolia
Mauritania
Egypt
Morocco
Mauritania
Pakistan
Haiti
China
Brazil
Niger
Eritrea
Sri Lanka
Samoa
Mexico
Venezuela
India
Sudan
Thailand
Tonga
Myanmar
Senegal
Malawi
Chad
Vietnam
China
Bangladesh
Fiji
Algeria
Kenya
Benin
Honduras
Senegal
Vietnam
Ethiopia
Iran
Rwanda
Fiji
Libya
Denmark
Pakistan
Low Income
Middle Income
Source: World Bank
Non-climate factors leading to
vulnerability in the region
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Many countries face varying degrees of what
we can call (the impacts of (multiple
stressors) which can compound the impacts
climate variability and change example:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
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Chronic poverty
Increasing population
Weak institutions and physical infrastructure
Low access to technology and information,
Political and social Instability
Lack of political commitments, access to resources
and management capabilities
High illiteracy rates and lack of skills
etc….
IPCC Projections
IPCC projected large reductions in rainfall in N. Africa and
Mediterranean
Annual precipitation changes over Africa between 1980-1999 & 20802099 from MMD-A1B simulations, mean for 21 models
It is important to note that
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While many parts of the Arab region
particularly MENA will be facing a more
frequent drought condition parts of the
region such as Sudan and Yemen are
projected to receive an increasing
amount of rainfall and potential floods
(high uncertainty and increasing
variability). (Brooks, 2007),
Resulting Impacts (1)
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Food insecurity: Food production would face an
increased threat, arising from and increasing aridity
and changes in the growing seasons and reduced
agricultural yields.
increased poverty, undermining economic
development, & delay or prevent the realization of the
MDGs.
World Bank President Robert Zoellick’s at the United
Nations Climate Change Conference in 2007 in Bali
called climate change a “development, economic, and
investment challenge.”
Potential Impacts (2)

Under a temperature increase of 1°C-3°C. Sea level rise
poses a risk to low-lying coastal areas in Kuwait, Qatar,
Libya, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, and particularly to
Egypt

This along with storm surges present huge threats to
buildings and infrastructure in the region
consequently, transportation systems, water and
energy supplies, recreational tourism beach facilities
and wastewater networks, will be at risk
Higher intensity and frequency of hot days will increase the
demand for energy and impact the power generation

The solution
Development
Climate
Resilient
Climate
Dev
Compatible
Development
Low Carbon
Dev
Mitigation
Climate
Proofing
Adaptation
Adaptation Concept

Adaptation refers to all those responses to
climate change that may be used to reduce
vulnerability or to actions designed to take
advantage of new opportunities that may
arise as a result of climate change
Types of adaptation
Type of
Characteristics
adaptation
Example
Autonomous
adaptation
Adaptation that takes place naturally
or not as a conscious response to
climate change
Natural responses of plant species
in response to e.g. drought or to
seasonal changes (earlier spring)autonomous farming practices
(change sowing dates
Building
adaptive
capacity
Creating the information and
conditions /regulatory institutional
and managerial that enable
adaptation to actions to be
undertaken -Education and capacitybuilding
Climate change research fundingawareness creation among
farmers- -developing policy
support tools
Taking
adaptive
measure
Taking actions that help reduce
vulnerability to climate risk or
exploit opportunities
Creating water collection and
storage facilities – introducing
new crop varieties- resource
management tools and
infrastructure
Adaptation Determinants (1)

In general terms ----------The
ability of communities to
adapt to climate change is
determined by their level of
development, their access
to resources and their
scientific and technical
skills and capacities.
Adaptation Determinants (2)

For adaptation to be effective in addressing
country/community levels impacts, it must:
• progress at several levels simultaneously from local
•
to national to global;
For the local and national efforts to be more
effective it needs to be supported by enabling
national policies, regulations and institutional
setups – this should be supported by regional &
international agreements.
Adaptation Determinants (2)
Essential adaptation development elements include
a) Information, as effective adaptation measures must be based on
accurate data and information (nature and extend of likely impacts
- cost and efficacy of possible response measures).
b) Capacity: Technical and technological.
c) Financial Resources: to ensure the provision of hardware and
software to deal with adaptation.
d) Institutions— Adaptation responses cut across a number of
institutions need for coordination of comprehensive strategies and
ensure sustainability
e) Technology; technology for adaptation is equally important as for
mitigation, there is even greater need for adaptive technology that
is suited to the specific needs and conditions.
)
Adaptation Determinants (3)

FAO highlighted the importance of policy reforms. In addition it
emphasizes the importance of the following measures related
to agriculture:
•
Development of climate change early warning systems,
• disaster risk management,
• Increasing rural investments:
• incentives to adopt better agricultural and land use
practices and crop insurance
• building capacity and awareness
• provision of supportive services such as extension
and research
• data collection, monitoring, analysis& dissemination.
Adaptation efforts in the region
Fragmented efforts at national levels
Adaptation Gap in the region
No coordinated regional or sub-regional
adaptation approach
Addressing adaptation in the region: some examples
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The AFED Report, 2009 proposed a number of adaptation measures for different
sectors
a. Water Resources: Improve efficiency, especially in irrigation, and develop
new water resources including innovative desalination technologies.
b. Food Production: Develop new varieties of crops that can adapt to higher
temperatures and different spans of seasons,
c. Sea Level Rise: Adapt land use regulations to the potential rise in sea level,
by increasing the minimum clear distance required between buildings and
shoreline.
d. Infrastructure and buildings: Choice of construction materials and
techniques used for buildings, roads, and utility
e. Biodiversity: develop mechanisms for coordinating conservation actions
across political boundaries and agency jurisdiction,
f. Human Health: Adapt human health systems and prepare them to respond to
the consequences of climate change, .
g. Tourism: Explore and promote options for alternative tourism less vulnerable
to climate variability, such as cultural tourism.
Other identified adaptation priorities
Some countries highlighted in their NCs and NAPAs,
adaptation options and/or strategies for different
sectors e.g.:
Agriculture: development of drought-tolerant crops,
early warning systems, erosion control, training
farmers
Health: improvement of the health care system,
Forest: enhancement of forest management,
Tourism: protection of tourism infrastructure,
Biodiversity: strengthening of environmental
legislation and promotion of nature conservation.
Adaptation priorities in Arab countries
converge over water resources(1)
This is because the majority of the Arab countries are
considered among the world‘s most water scarce, and
in many places demand for water already exceeds
supply.
Climate change scenarios for water in the Arab
region cannot be viewed in isolation, as rapid
population growth, industrial development,
urbanization and increasing demand for
irrigation exert additional pressures on water
resources.
Annual renewable water resources per capita
Australia & New Zealand
Latin America & Caribbean
North America
Europe & Central Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
East Asia & Pacific (incl. Japan&Koreas)
Western Europe
South Asia
Middle East & North Africa
0
10
20
1000 m^3 / year
30
40
Adaptation priorities in Arab countries
converge over water resources (2)
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The challenge of making an optimal water allocation for
a growing number of competing water management
options (e.g. agriculture, public consumption, industry,
hydro-energy, ecosystems, etc.) under a changing
climate system places a heavy burden on water
managers.
The fact that the water sector is more than any other
sector requires cooperation across various institutions and
systematic updating. This particularly important for Transboundary water resources such as Nile Basin, which is
shared between 0 nations -Cooperation is critical for
sustainable management of water resources (Nile Basin
Initiative)
Adaptation measures identified for water
resources under NCs
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Use of supplementary irrigation (reduce high
dependency on rain.
Integrated water management
Tapping different available sources (e.g.
desalinization, recycling)
Harvesting and storage
Efficiency of water use and demand control
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We should not neglect water quality
problems associated with CC
Addressing adaptation in the region: what
needs to be done??
To address this region specific concerns:
- A coordinated effort of capacity building,
training, research, & development is required.
• A region-wide monitoring, making available
reliable observations and transforming them
into useful information for a wide spectrum
stakeholders particularly policy makers.
Addressing adaptation in the region: what
needs to be done??
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Plan adaptive strategies at the country
and regional levels and work towards
strengthening national capacities.
It is equally important that Arabic
governments integrate climate riskbased approaches, within water
policy frameworks.
Mal Adaptation
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Adaptation at one scale/time or space could
lead to mal adaptation at another scale/time or
space.
E.g. dams at up-stream- water constraints at
downstream.
Intensification of production –extraction of
ground water –could impact future generation?
Agric inputs-impacts on water quality
Adaptation under a situation of
hostility
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Many of the Arab countries are bordered
or share resources with non-Arabic
countries-some these countries don’t
enjoy friendly relationships –
need to think of developing adaptation
under antagonistic atmosphere.
Conclusions
•Regional cooperation in adaptation efforts should be fostered
through the adoption of regional strategies and action
plans that address CC concerns, and through the development
of a regional early warning system for forecasts, risk
assessment and monitoring of extreme events.
An enhanced cooperation, development & implementation of
integrated regional water management between countries
sharing water sources - both surface and groundwater
•Empowerment of communities,– particularly women and other
vulnerable groups .
•Involving civil societies and private sector