Post GU 2011
Food Security and Nutrition
Analysis Unit Somalia
Information for Better Livelihoods
17th August 2011
Juba Regions
Swiss Agency for Development
and Cooperation SDC
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment
Coverage
Field Access and Field Data
Locations
- Food security field analysts had a
full access into all livelihoods of
both regions
Main Livelihood Groups
Sources of Food and Income
Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income
•
2 Pastoral Livelihoods (Southeast and Southern Inland
Pastoralists)



•
Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock &
livestock products
Primary sources of food of poor: purchase
Primary livelihood asset of poor: camel (SIP), cattle
(SEP), sheep/goat
2 Agro-pastoral Livelihoods (Southern and Lower Juba Agro pastoralists)
 Southern Agropastoral in Middle Juba (Sakow /Salagle ) are more crop dependent, while
southern agropastoral in L. Juba (Afmadow/Hagar) are more livestock dependent. Main sources
of income: sale of livestock & livestock products, self-employment, employment, crop sales;
main source of food is own production and purchases
 Lower Juba Agro pastoral: more livestock-dependent; main source of income: sales of livestock
products and wild foods; main source of food: own production and purchases.
 South-East Pastoral (cattle, goat /sheep): mainly situated in Lower Juba (38,810 people - 68%),
but also have significant numbers in Middle Juba (18,232 people – 32%).
 Riverine (M. and L. Juba): the livelihood is situated along the Juba river and extends to both
regions but most of it is in Middle Juba (Sakow, Buale and Jilib districts – 57% of population;
43% in L. Juba disticts of Jammame and Kismayo). Main source of income of poor: crop sales,
wage labor, self-employment (collection of bush products); main sources of food of poor: own
production and market purchase
Climate
Performance of the Gu 2011 Rainfall
•
Start of Season: Generally, started late, 3rd
Dekad of April, ended early in 2nd Dekad of
May with intermittent dry period in both
regions.
•
Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Very poor in
terms of coverage and intensity, ended early
in 2nd of May 2011.
•
Normal rains: In localized areas in terms of
amount (pastoral livelihood in Afmadow) but
poor frequency and distribution.
•
Poor rains: whole districts of Sakow/Salagle in
M. Juba, Jammame, Kismayo and Badhadhe
in L. Juba experienced poor rainfall.
•
Hagaa rains: late Hagaa rains received along
the coastal strip of L. Juba (Jammame,
Kismayo and Badhadhe) in 3rd dekade of July
2011
Climate
Vegetation Conditions
Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover
Civil Insecurity
Civil Security Situation:
•
•
Remains highly volatile
Military skirmishes along the Kenya
/Somalia border
Direct and Indirect Impacts on
Food Security & Nutrition:
•
•
•
Restricted trade movement across
the
borders
from
Somalia
(Kismayo) to Kenya and vice versa.
Limited population movement
Restricted pastoral mobility,
particularly in Diif, Tabata,
Qooqaani and Jiira grazing lands in
Afmadow district
Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster
Agriculture
Gu 2011 Cereal Production Trends in Juba regions
Juba Hoose (Lower) Cereal Production Estimates
Gu 2011 Production in MT
Gu 2011 as
Districts
Afmadow
Hagar
Badhaadhe
Jamaame
Kismaayo
Juba Hoose (Lower) Gu 2011
Total
Total Cereal
% of Gu
2010
1
3
0
0
0
21
11
0
245
45
5%
2%
0%
11%
3%
4
321
6%
Maize
Sorghum
20
8
0
245
45
318
Gu 2011 as Gu 2011 as
% of Gu
% of 5 year
PWA
average
(1995-2010) (2006-2010)
6%
10%
3%
5%
0%
0%
7%
14%
6%
9%
6%
11%
Juba Dhexe (Middle) Cereal Production Estimates
Gu 2011 Production in MT
Districts
Gu 2011 as
Gu 2011 as %
Gu 2011 as %
% of 5 year
Total Cereal
of Gu PWA
of Gu 2010
average
(1995-2010)
(2006-2010)
Maize
Sorghum
Bu'aale
180
12
192
8%
10%
13%
Jilib
175
0
175
5%
4%
6%
Saakow
Juba Dhexe (Middle) Gu
2011 Total
200
0
200
3%
6%
5%
555
12
567
5%
6%
7%
Agriculture
Gu 2011 Off season Maize in Juba regions
Districts
Total Cereal
Gu 2011 as % of Gu 2010
Middle Juba
400
6%
L. Juba
50
3%
Total
450
5%
Agriculture
Gu 2011 Cash Crop Production Estimates (L/M Juba)
Gu 2011, Cash Crop Production in MT
Regions
Rice
Cowpea
Sesame
Onions
Off-Season
Cowpea
Off-Season
Sesame
Pepper
Total
Juba Dhexe
(Middle)
0
140
0
0
70
200
0
400
Juba Hoose
(Lower)
0
20
5
0
250
1,800
0
2,080
TOTAL
0
160
5
0
320
2,000
0
2,480
Agriculture
M.Juba: Trend in Gu season cereal production
25,000
Trends in Gu Cereal Production (1995-2011)
Maize
Sorghum
PWA
5 year Avrg
20,000
MT
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
Agriculture
L.Juba: Trend in Gu season cereal production
14,000
Trends in Gu Cereal Production (1995-2011)
Maize
Sorghum
PWA
5 year Avrg
12,000
10,000
MT
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
Agriculture
M. Juba Annual Cereal Production Gu 2011
Gu plus Off-Season Cereal Production (1995-2011)
25,000
Maize
Sorghum
PWA
5 year Avrg
20,000
MT
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
Agriculture
L. Juba Annual Cereal Production Gu 2011
Gu plus Off-Season Cereal Production (1995-2011)
14,000
Maize
Sorghum
PWA
5 year Avrg
12,000
10,000
MT
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
Agriculture
Gu 2011 Assessment Photos
Maize Crop Failure. Janbarow , Jammame, L.
Juba, FSNAU, July 2011
Poor Maize Crop. Buale, M.Juba, FSNAU,
July 2011
Agriculture
Gu 2011 Assessment Photos
Crop failure. Yontoy,
Kismaayo, L. Juba, July 2011
Failed crop Malaaley,
Jammame, L. Juba, July 2011
Empty underground storage
Pit.Qed cajuso –Sakow July
2011
.
Agriculture
Gu 2011 Local Cereal Flow
Juba regions receive maize
from Kenya via Dhobley and
Kismayo port as well as from
Ethiopia (Somali Region)
through Gedo region.
Agriculture
Regional Trends in Cereal Prices in Juba Regions
Middle Juba
Regional Trend in Cereal Prices
(maize), main markets in Middle
Juba
Factors influencing sorghum
prices:
• Crop failure in riverine and agropastoral livelihoods
Lower Juba
• Maize inflow from Kenya and
Ethiopia
• High demand for cereals
Regional Trend in Cereal
Prices (maize), main
markets in Lower Juba
Agriculture
Labour Rates and Availability
Middle Juba
Factors influencing labor wage rates
in agricultural districts:
•Limited agricultural activities following
the poor Gu season performance
•Low labour demand
Lower Juba
Agriculture
Regional Trends in Terms of Trade in Juba Regions
Middle Juba
Regional trends in purchasing
power in Middle Juba (ToT daily
labor to white maize):
3kg in Jul ‘11 vs 15kg in Jul ‘10
Factor Affecting ToT decline:
• Significant increase in maize
prices.
Lower Juba
•Decrease of daily wage rate
Regional trends in purchasing
power in Lower Juba (ToT daily
labor to white maize):
4kg in Jul ‘11 vs 17kg in Jul ‘10
Livestock
Rangeland Conditions and
Livestock Migration, July 2011
• Water availability is poor to average for all
livelihoods of the two regions except
riverine livelihood
• Average to poor pasture condition in all
areas of coastal, pastoral and agropastoral livelihoods except river banks
• Average to poor body condition for camel
and goats and poor for cattle and sheep.
•
High in-migrations that caused depletion
of pasture
Livestock
Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production
Region
Livelihoods
Juba
Southeast Pastoral
Southern Inland
Pastoral
Conception
(Gu ’11)
Milk
Calving/kidding
production
(Gu ‘11)
(Gu ‘11)
Cattle: none to
low
Sh/goat:
medium
Cattle: none to
low
very low
Sh/goat: low
Camel: low
Sh/goat:
medium
Camel:
medium
Sh/goat: low
Juba Agro-pastoral Cattle: none to
low
Sh/goat:
medium
Cattle: low
Sh/goat: low
average for
camel
very low
Expected calving/ Trends in Herd Size (Dec ‘11)
kidding
Livestock species
Jul – Dec ‘11
Cattle: none
Cattle: decreased (Below Baseline)
Sh/goat: medium Sheep/goats: decreased (Below
Baseline)
Camel: low
Camel: Increasing trend ( as Baseline)
Sh/goat: medium
Sheep/goats: decrease (Below
Baseline)
Cattle: none
Cattle: decrease (Below Baseline)
Sh/goat: medium Sheep/goats: decrease (Below
Baseline)
Livestock
Gu 2011 Assessment Photos
Poor cattle Body Condition. Dashek Wamo,
Lower Juba, July 2011
Poor cattle body condition. Litila Sakow,
Middle Juba, July 2011.
Livestock
Regional Trends in Livestock Prices in Juba regions
Middle Juba
Regional Trend in cattle Prices
in Middle Juba (Jilib , Buale) :
•
Cattle prices are 40% of June
2010 and 161% of January 2011.
Lower Juba
Regional Trend in Cattle Prices in
Lower Juba (Afmadow & Kismayo):
•
Declining trend: 49% compared
to same month last year, and
103% of January 2011
Influencing factors: poor body
condition, poor demand, high
supply, poor condition on marketing
route, prolonged drought )
Livestock
Regional Trends in Terms of Trade
Between Cattle/Maize in Juba regions
Middle Juba
Regional Trend in
ToT between Cattle to Maize:
107kg/head in Jul ‘11 versus
715kg/head in Jul ‘10
Lower Juba
Regional Trend in
ToT between Cattle to Maize:
105kg/head in Jul ‘11 versus
358kg/head in Jul ‘10
Markets
Trends in Imported Commodity Prices
Juba Valley: Imported Commodity Prices
compared to Exchange Rate
DIESEL 1 Litre
Price per Unit (SoSh)
80000
SUGAR 1 kg
60000
VEGETABLE OIL 1 Litre
RED RICE 1 kg
40000
SOMALI SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR
20000
Jun-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Dec-08
Jun-08
Dec-07
Jun-07
Dec-06
Jun-06
Dec-05
Jun-05
Dec-04
Jun-04
0
Month
Factors Influencing Commercial price Increases for imported commodities (last six months):
• Increased taxation on commercial imports
• High food and fuel prices on international markets
• Low local cereal supply leading to increased consumption of imported cereals, causing elevation in prices
Nutrition
Summary of Nutrition Findings
Region
Juba
Nutrition Surveys
(March – July 10)
Juba Pastoral
GAM =39.0 (35.2-42.9)
SAM = 18.9 (16.0-22.3%
(FSNAU & partners,
July’11, R=1)
Juba Riverine
GAM = 45.3 (41.049.7)and SAM = 21.7
(18.7-25.0) (FSNAU &
partners, July’11, R=1)
Juba Agro-pastoral
GAM = 34.4 (30.3-38.6)
and SAM = 12.3 (9.515.8) (FSNAU &
partners, July’11, R=1)
Rapid MUAC
Screening
(% <12.5cm)
MUAC
<12.5=19
MUAC <11.5=5
Health
Information
System Info
TFC/OTP/
SFC
Other relevant
information – Key
driving factors
Summary of
analysis and
change from
Deyr ’09/10
High and fluctuating
number of acutely
malnourished
children reported in
facilities in pastoral
and agro-pastoral
livelihood s but
decreasing in the
riverine livelihoods’
facilities
OTP admission
show mixed trends,
with high and
fluctuating number
of severely
malnourished
children admitted in
OTP in pastoral and
agro-pastoral, but
low and fluctuating
trends in the
riverine facilities (
Aggravating factors
-High
morbidity
with
pastoral, agro-pastoral and
riverine samples reportedly
ill.
-Limited access to health
and feeding facility due to
distance and insecurity
-Poor access to sanitation
facilities and safe water
-Suboptimal
child
care/feeding
Juba Pastoral –
Very Critical- No
change from Very
Critical phase in
Deyr’10/11 and the
Nutrition situation
is likely to continue
deterioration
( Source: Muslin AID,
AFREC SRCS , MSF. HIS
Data , Jan-June’11 R=3)
Source: Muslin AID,
AFREC SRCS , MSF.
HIS Data , Jan-June’11
R=3)
Mitigating factors
- No mitigating factors has
been noted
JubaRiverine:
Very Critical- No
change from Very
Critical phase in
Deyr’10/11 and the
Nutrition situation
is likely to continue
deterioration
Juba Agropastoral
Very Critical –
Very Critical- No
change from Very
Critical phase in
Deyr’10/11 and the
Nutrition situation
is likely to continue
deterioration
JUBA
Nutrition Situation Estimates
Gu (April-July) Median Estimates of
Nutrition Situation (2008-2010)
Nutrition Situation Estimates,
August 2011
Aggravating factors





Limited food access due to impact of drought on crop production and cattle and sheep
Poor humanitarian access limiting delivery of health and nutrition services
High morbidity and poor health seeking behaviors
Limited access to safe water, sanitation & health facilities
Poor infant and young child feeding
Mitigating factors



Access of milk and milk products to the pastoral community (mainly camel)
Increased income from sale of fodder in riverine charcoal burning for income generation with long-term negative
impact on the environment
Limited nutrition interventions on going
JUBA
Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation
MAP 1: IPC, April 2011
Key IPC Reference Outcomes
Urban Population:
Middle Juba: 100% P and 50% of Middle HE; 50% Middle AFLC
Lower Juba: 75%P in HE; 25%P and 50%M in AFLC
Rural Population:
L& M Juba Southern Agropastoral (25% P-Famine; 75%P - HE; 50% M -HE; 50% M –
AFLC); L. Juba Agropastoral (25% P- Famine; 75%P - HE; 50% M-HE; 50% M – AFLC);
Juba Riverine (50% P -Famine and 50%P-HE; 100%M –HE); Juba South East Pastoral
(100% P-HE; 100% M- AFLC ); Juba Southern Inland Pastoral (75% P- AFLC)
Acute malnutrition: Very Critical, likely to deteriorate
Food Access: Mixed with population in famine facing extreme entitlement gap; much below
2,100 kcal ppp day, in HE facing severe entitlement gap; unable to meet 2,100 kcal ppp day
MAP 2: IPC, Current Situation while lacking entitlement; 2,100 kcal ppp day via asset stripping
Water Access: Population in famine (< 4 litres ppp day -human usage only); HE (< 7.5 litres
ppp day -human usage only); AFLC (7.5-15 litres ppp day, accessed via asset stripping)
Destitution/Displacement: Famine (large scale, concentrated); HE (concentrated;
increasing); AFLC (emerging; diffuse)
Coping: HE (“distress strategies”; CSI significantly > than reference); AFLC (“crisis
strategies”; CSI > than reference; increasing)
Livelihood Assets: Famine (effectively complete loss; collapse); HE (near complete &
irreversible depletion or loss of access); AFLC (accelerated and critical depletion or loss of
access)
Juba
Main Influencing Factors for Rural IPC Situation
Aggravating Factors:
 Late start of Gu 2011 rains with very poor, localized coverage and intensity;
 Significant decrease in cereal production in riverine (maize) and complete failure in agropastoral
(sorghum): L. Juba (321MT; 6% of PWA); M. Juba (567MT; 6% of PWA);
 Absence of stocks following two consecutive seasons of crop failure
 Poor pasture across the region except in the river banks that are infested with tsetse flies;
 Shortage of water in the key pastoral areas due to poor rains and early depletion following the high
livestock in-migration mainly from Kenya and Gedo region;
 Decreased herd sizes and livestock holding (cattle, sheep/goat);
 Poor livestock body conditions and decline in livestock production and reproduction (cattle, sheep &
goats);
 Significant increase in maize prices from a year ago (93% );
 Unstable security situation- mainly along the border with Kenya – Dobley ,Kulbiyow and Diif of
Afmadow district – affecting trade movement
 Low livestock prices (mainly for cattle) due to poor body conditions and poor access to Garissa market
(shortage of pasture and water along the trekking routes and civil insecurity)
 Increased taxation on commercial imports by local administration, contributing to food price increases;
 Weak purchasing power: ToT of 4kg maize/labour wage (66% decline) and 25kg maize/local goat (72%
decline) compared to June 2010;
 Increased distress coping strategies (charcoal production, indebtedness);
Mitigating Factors:
 Sustained baseline levels of camel holdings and availability of milking animals in pastoral areas;
 Hagaa off-season cash and cereal crop productions: L/M Juba (cowpea, sesame and maize);
 Charcoal production despite low prices;
 Limited food assistance, mainly from ICRC
 Social support
Juba
Rural Population in Crisis by District
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Deyr 2010/11
Affected Regions and District
Middle Juba
Famine
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE)
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE)
Bu'aale
45,901
8,000
9,000
7,000
26,000
5,000
Jilib
83,464
12,000
13,000
11,000
37,000
7,000
Saakow/Salagle
54,773
10,000
8,000
9,000
26,000
5,000
184,138
30,000
30,000
27,000
89,000
17,000
Afmadow/Xagar
44,212
7,000
3,000
14,000
14,000
2,000
Badhaadhe
32,828
7,000
2,000
12,000
11,000
1,000
Jamaame
106,734
12,000
17,000
7,000
45,000
10,000
Kismaayo
77,334
9,000
6,000
20,000
22,000
4,000
SUB-TOTAL
261,108
35,000
28,000
53,000
92,000
17,000
GRAND TOTAL
445,246
65,000
58,000
80,000
181,000
34,000
SUB-TOTAL
Lower Juba
UNDP 2005 Rural
Population
Gu 2011
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE
123,000
295,000
Juba
Rural Population in Crisis by Livelihood Zone
Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone
Middle Juba
Coastal pastoral:
goats & cattle
Juba Pump Irrigated
Riv
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Deyr 2010/11
GU 2011
Acute Food and
Humanitarian
Acute Food and
Humanitarian
Livelihood Crisis
Emergency
Livelihood Crisis
Emergency
(AFLC)
(HE)
(AFLC)
(HE)
Famine
10,984
0
0
0
0
0
17,297
3,000
6,000
0
12,000
3,000
Lower Juba Agro-Past
8,780
2,000
1,000
2,000
4,000
1,000
South-East Pastoral
18,232
4,000
1,000
10,000
5,000
0
Southern Agro-Past
46,816
12,000
4,000
13,000
26,000
4,000
Southern Inland Past
22,725
0
0
2,000
0
0
Southern Juba Riv
59,304
9,000
18,000
0
42,000
9,000
184,138
30,000
30,000
27,000
89,000
17,000
Coastal pastoral:
goats & cattle
33,354
0
0
0
0
0
Lower Juba Agro-Past
70,183
14,000
7,000
19,000
34,000
7,000
South-East Pastoral
38,810
9,000
3,000
21,000
12,000
0
Southern Agro-Past
11,637
3,000
1,000
3,000
6,000
1,000
Southern Inland Past
50,119
0
0
10,000
0
0
Southern Juba Riv
57,005
9,000
17,000
0
40,000
9,000
SUB-TOTAL
261,108
35,000
28,000
53,000
92,000
17,000
GRAND TOTAL
445,246
65,000
58,000
80,000
181,000
SUB-TOTAL
Lower Juba
Estimated Population
of Affected
Livelihood Zones
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE
123,000
295,000
34,000
Juba
Urban Population in Crisis
Deyr 2010/11
District
UNDP 2005
Total
Population
UNDP 2005
Urban
Population
Gu 2011
Acute Food
and
Livelihood
Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE)
Total in AFLC
or HE as % of
Urban
population
Acute Food
and
Livelihood
Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency
(HE)
Total in AFLC
or HE as % of
Urban
population
Juba Dhexe (Middle)
Bu'aale
Jilib
Saakow/Salagle
59,489
113,415
13,588
29,951
0
0
7,000
15,000
52
50
0
0
7,000
15,000
52
50
65,973
11,200
0
4,000
36
0
4,000
36
Sub-Total
238,877
Juba Hoose (Lower)
54,739
0
26,000
47
0
26,000
47
51,334
7,122
2,000
0
28
1,000
2,000
42
38,640
5,812
2,000
0
34
1,000
2,000
52
129,149
166,667
385,790
22,415
89,333
124,682
8,000
16,000
28,000
0
0
0
36
18
22
2,000
8,000
12,000
6,000
23,000
33,000
36
35
36
624,667
179,421
28,000
26,000
30
12,000
59,000
40
Afmadow/Xagar
Badhaadhe
Jamaame
Kismaayo
Sub-Total
Grand Total
The End