Economics of Climate Change Adaptation
Regional Consultation on Capacity Building Needs in Asia
Impacts of Climate Change on
Human Development and Poverty
What We Know and What We do not Know
Bishwa Nath Tiwari
UNDP-APRC
Bangkok
26 October 2012
Climate change and poverty reduction in
Asia-Pacific region
• In the last 3 decades poverty reduced by 66% and human
development improved by 55%.
• Rapid economic growth has contributed to these
achievements.
• But the current growth model has increased income inequality
and invited climate change challenge that undermines poverty
reduction and human development agenda.
• Poor are more vulnerable to climate change.
• Unless climate change is addressed we will be failing in our
poverty reduction efforts.
• This requires improved planning, policy and institutions backed
up by adequate technological, financial resources and
international & regional cooperation.
Poverty in Asia-Pacific Region
• A huge region with almost 4 billion population
out of 7 billion world population (56%)
• Highest number of poor almost 900 million
out of 1.3 billion world’s poor(69% below
PPP$ 1.25/day)
• High variation in poverty rate
– East Asia-Pacific (Developing) – 16.8%
– South Asia – 40.3%
• Climate change has huge impact in the region
Environmental trends threaten human development
progress
By 2050, the global HDI would be:

19% higher than it is today.
•
Largest increase in developing
countries (24%).
•
44% for Sub-Saharan Africa and
36% for South Asia.

8% lower in an environmental
challenge scenario.
•
12% for South Asia and SubSaharan Africa.

15% lower in an environmental
disaster scenario.
•
Dramatic impact on developing
countries
•
24% for Sub-Saharan Africa and
22% for South Asia.
Impact of CC on HD in Asia-Pacific
• Sea level rise: The Asia and Pacific nations are the most vulnerable, with
more than 100 million people at risk. By 2050, with a projected halfmetre rise in sea level, Bangladesh alone is likely to lose about 11
percent of its land, affecting an estimated 15 million people .
• Melting of Glaciers: Glaciers in Asia are melting at a faster rate than ever
before, increasing the risks of flooding and rock avalanches. At least 32
GLOFs have occurred in Himalayan region of Bhutan, China and Nepal with
significant loss of human lives and property. In last 40 years, some glacial
lakes in the Pho Chu basin of Bhutan has increased 8 times larger.
• Decrease in fresh water availability: with population growth and
increasing demand for higher standards of living, more than a billion
people will be affected by 2050s.
• Decrease in crop yields: By the mid-21st century, crop yields could increase
up to 20% in east and southeast Asia; and decrease up to 30% in central
and south Asia.
Impact of CC on HD in Asia-Pacific
• Increased desertification and displacement: Out of 5.2 billion
hectares of earth’s land, Asia has around 1.7 billion hectares
that are at risk of desertification.
• Loss of mangroves, affecting food security and biodiversity:
From 1980 to 2005, Asia lost 25% of its 7.8 million ha
mangroves, threatening food security, shelter, and other
services.
• Rise in climate sensitive diseases (Malaria, Dengue fever): 1.8
billion people from Asia-Pacific are at risk from Dengue – 70%
of the world’s total; In 2009, Asia-Pacific accounted for 16%
of global malaria cases and 7% of deaths. In 2004, about half
of diarrhea cases and deaths among children under five
occurred in Asia-Pacific.
Recent climate extreme events and their effects
• Bangladesh Cyclone Sidr in 2007: 3,400 people were
killed, 55,000 people suffered from injuries, and about 1
million’s livelihoods seriously affected.
• Myanmar Cyclone Nargis in 2008: 84,537 people were
killed, 2.4 million affected, and 0.8 million displaced
(women accounted for 61% of deaths).
• Pakistan flood in 2010: 78 of 141 districts and more than
20 million people (10% of pop) affected, more than 1,900
people lost their lives, and about 1.6 million homes were
destroyed.
The effect of CC is higher in A-P region and on its
vulnerable population groups
• Asia-Pacific region was disproportionately hit:
– 45% of world’s natural disasters occurred in Asia-Pacific in
last 3 decades.
– though region accounted for 25% of world’s GDP, it
suffered from 42% of total economic losses from disasters.
– Asia-pacific is more prone to climate-sensitive diseases.
• Vulnerability
= f(exposure, sensitivity,
1/adaptive capacity)
• Mountain dwellers, islanders, delta communities, indigenous
peoples and urban slums of the region are more vulnerable.
Source APHDR 2012
Countries have been making efforts
• Bhutan, China, India and Viet Nam have recently transitioned
from deforestation to reforestation status. India increased its
reforestation rate from of 0.2% a year between 1990 and
2000 to 0.5 percent a year between 2000 and 2010.
• Bhutan stipulates that at least 60 percent of the country
remain forested in perpetuity.
• Countries of the region is committed to reduce emissions
– China is committed to lower its carbon intensity of GDP by 40–45% by
2020 compared to the 2005 level.
– India is also committed to reduce emissions intensity of GDP by 20–
25% during the same period.
– Indonesia and Republic of Korea announced that by 2020 they will
reduce emissions by 26% and 20%, respectively below their 2005
levels
Some Adaptation efforts
Hanoi, Viet Nam - comprehensive water adaptation programme includes
improving dykes, better monitoring and responses to flooding.
Dealing with runoff in Nepal: Hill farmers have devised a systematic way of
managing runoff from the ridge to the valley, with drainage channels and ponds
built at strategic points to hold, divert and delay the flow of runoff.
Diversifying food sources in Malaysia: In response to changing weather
patterns in Malaysia, the Jagoi of Sarawak are diversifying their food sources;
they are planting several varieties of rice, fruit trees and other climate-resilient
crops such as Tapioca.
Coping with floods in Bangladesh: Delta farmers adjust the timing and varieties
of rice that they plan according to water cycle
Protecting livestock pasture in Mongolia: Faced with a difficult and variable
climate, the nomadic herders of Mongolia developed ways of combating
pasture degradation and desertification. These include: seasonal migration,
long-distance migration, herding different kinds of livestock and observing
communal practices for the sustainable use of common pasture grounds.
Planned adaptation is already under way in NAPAs, disaster management and
adaptation plan, as well as countries national strategies, policies and action
plans
National Policies, Strategies and Action Plans on Climate Change
Japan
Korea
Singapore
Malaysia
China
Thailand
Mongolia
2009 Initiative
2008 Policy and Action Plan
2008 National Strategy
2009 National Policy
2007 National Programme
2008 Strategic Plan and 2009 Draft Master Plan
2000 Action Plan
Philippines
2009 Climate Change Act and 2010-2022 National Framework Strategy
Indonesia
Viet Nam
Lao PDR
Cambodia
Sri Lanka
Maldives
India
Bhutan
Pakistan
Bangladesh
Nepal
2007 Action Plan and 2010 Sectoral Roadmap
2008 National Target Programme
2010 National Strategy (NSCC)
2001 National Action Plan (NAPCC)
2011-2016 National Adaptation Strategy
2010-2020 Strategic National Action Plan
2008 National Action Plan
2009 Concept Paper on National Strategy
2011 Draft National Policy
2008 National Strategy and Action Plan
2011 National Policy
Australia
2004-2007 National Biodiversity and CC Action Plan; 2009 Adaptation Action Plan
Tonga
Micronesia
Kiribati
2009 Policy
2009 Policy
2005 Adaptation Strategy
Plus 12 Countries of the regions have NAPA (as of Nov 2011).
Gap and constraints
1.
Knowledge and information gap
•
•
2.
Market failures – missing and misaligned markets
•
•
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Lack of awareness
Lack of information of CC impacts and vulnerability at local level; most
information are at global/regional level – difficult y in decision making
Public goods
Information asymmetry between sellers and buyers
Lack of affordable technology
Financial constraints, particularly those faced by the poor people
Lack of adequate planning and budgeting
Lack of coordination - ministries/departments are yet working in
silos
Lack of capacity, especially in the LDCs
Lack of institutions at local level
Knowledge & Awareness gap: How much we know
about CC?
Knowledge and awareness is necessary
• Assessment and information can help address maladaptation.
Two critical areas of maladaptation: (i) use of energy for air
conditioning; and (ii) building road in hills.
• Due to insufficient information on biological resources
development practices and population pressure have caused
a significant loss of terrestrial and aquatic species diversity
(Bangladesh NAPA).
• Asymmetry of information does not encourage proper
adaptation – such as absentee landlords does not do
retrofitting; or ignorant consumers do not demand for house
built with safety measures.
• Lack of awareness and information among higher authority
can delay the adaptation efforts
Other areas of interventions
• Awareness and information is only part of the solution. Even if
awareness level is high, political leaders may not take right
decisions (Short time horizon; lobby/pressure)
• Participation and representation of vulnerable groups is
necessary
• Increased transition to green technology
• Expand sources of finance (Domestic and international)
• Improved planning and monitoring framework
• Enhanced institutions and regulations
• Coordination and cooperation
– Coordination between ministries/departments/units
– Regional and international cooperation
– South-south and north-south
What Policies, Programmes and Projects?
Wins-wins are possible: Both environmental conservation and
equity/poverty can reduce poverty
What projects and programmes?
1. Areas of win-win opportunities
• Micro-Hydro power in remote areas
• Leasehold forestry targeting the poor
2. Access to electricity generated from clean energy
• Viet Nam: Universal access to electricity
• in Lao PDR under “power to the poor” component of
energy access programmes interest-free credits
provided to connect poor households to the grid
3. Labour intensive green roads - Income generation,
employment activities (such as in FfW, or some select
projects under MGNREGA in India)
4. Improved all-weather roads (such as in Lao PDR that has
enabled farmers to explore new market opportunities)
5. Community forestry (Nepal)
6. Managing traffic congestion such (Singapore)
Thank You