Hydrology 1913 to 2013 - The Ohio State University

advertisement
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service
NOAA/NWS
Ohio River Forecast Center
Hydrology 1913 to 2013.
Ohio State Severe Weather
Symposium
Jim Noel
Service Coordination Hydrologist
Robin Belton-Gerhardt
Hydrologist
March 22, 2013
Outline
Hydrology of 1913
 Duration of 1913 flood
 Magnitude of 1913 flood
 Big floods in the Ohio Valley
 1913 in 2013
1913, 1997 and 2010 in 2013
 Today’s Advances in Hydrology
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service

Hydrology of 1913
 There was no snowpack prior to the event
 Soil conditions were wet leading into the event
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service
 Streamflow conditions were not really elevated
 1913 was an extreme event but also had a lot of
classic historic event characteristics
 Most of the intense rain fell in a few days
 Runoff rates were very high, close to 1, complete
runoff
 Rivers responded fast to the runoff
 Systems failed as Mother Nature exceeded the
capabilities of the system (both natural and manmade)
Hydrology of 1913
 River gages where 1913 flood of record still
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service
stands.
Duration of Flooding from 1913
 Flood happened fast in the faster responding
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service
upper Ohio River and Great Lakes basins.
Legend
Days Above
Flood Stage
1-3
3-10
10-20
20-30
>30
Magnitude of Flooding from 1913
 Minor flooding begins to appear in northern
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service
Ohio ahead of the main storm
Magnitude of Flooding from 1913
 Flood expands across northern Indiana to
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service
northern Ohio and western Pennsylvania in faster
responding areas.
Magnitude of Flooding from 1913
 Significant flooding occurring rapidly in faster
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service
responding tributaries
Magnitude of Flooding from 1913
 Widespread major flooding is occurring across
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service
the northern Ohio Valley into the Lake Erie
drainage areas
Magnitude of Flooding from 1913
 Significant flooding subsiding in upstream
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service
tributaries but continues in downstream
tributaries into Ohio River.
Magnitude of Flooding from 1913
 Flooding is shifting from the fast responding to
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service
slower responding rivers by March 28, 2013
Magnitude of Flooding from 1913
 Flooding now focused on lower Wabash, lower
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service
White basins of Indiana into Ohio River.
Magnitude of Flooding from 1913
 By April 1 the flood is now mainly in the Ohio River
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service
and heading downstream. It usually takes about a
week for the water to move down the Ohio River.
Big floods in the Ohio Valley
 Big floods are common in the Ohio Valley
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service
 Do these sound familiar: 1913, 1927, 1937,
1959, 1964, 1997, 2005, 2008, 2010, 2011 to
name a few. Many more. Next one is 201?
 Why? Crossroads of the jet stream.
 Ohio River Forecast Center is one of the busiest
in the country, usually in top three of 13 RFCs.
 Flooding occurs in most months of the year.
 Most big floods have a similar look!
 Most meteorologists and hydrologists focus on
the 500 mb trough. However, OHRFC research
suggests the Southeast Ridge is even more
important – like a ball hitting a wall!
Big floods in the Ohio Valley
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service
1913 500 hPa
ATL= 585
2010 500 hPa
ATL= 585
1997 500 hPa
ATL= 585
Composite
ATL= 582
1913 flood in 2013
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service
 Youngstown, Ohio crest would be lower and
faster with local water getting in faster. Also,
Army Corps of Engineers holds water in their
projects and release later for longer recession.
1913 flood in 2013
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service
 Zanesville, Ohio crest would be substantially
lower as upstream projects of the Army Corps of
Engineers and Muskingum Conservancy District
hold water and release later for longer recession.
1913 flood in 2013
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service
 Columbus, Ohio crest would be similar or
possibly slightly higher. However, due to levee
failures (1913) and other complexities, confidence
is low at this point.
1913 flood in 2013
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service
 Dayton, Ohio crest would be substantially lower
as upstream projects of the Miami Conservancy
District hold water and release later for longer
recession. Flood Stage would not occur.
1913 flood in 2013
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service
 Fort Wayne, Indiana crest would be slightly
higher and later with faster recession. This is
likely a combination of urbanization and water
getting into system faster.
1913 flood in 2013
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service
 Terre Haute, Indiana crest would be lower and
faster with similar recession. Local water gets
into system slightly faster. Much of the landscape
remains agriculture over this time.
1913 flood in 2013
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service
 Indianapolis, Indiana crest would be lower with
double crest from local water, then upstream
water arriving. Urbanization is responsible for
initial crest. Recession is slower.
1913, 1997 and 2010 flood in 2013
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service
 So, can we have worse floods in terms of rainfall
than the 1913 flood?
 Answer is YES!
 If so, what would some other recent floods, such
as the 1997 Kentucky flood and 2010 Nashville
flood, look like today?
1913
8-10+ inches
1997
9-11+ inches
2010
10-15+ inches
1913, 1997 and 2010 flood in 2013
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service
 Columbus, Ohio – Convective extreme events such as
the 2010 event in Nashville of up to 15+” of rain would
cause extreme rises. Exact crests would be driven by
how the system can maintain itself. Crests likely lower
than shown here because things could fail.
1913, 1997 and 2010 flood in 2013
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service
 Dayton, Ohio – Flooding would be far less than in
1913 due to the impressive system built. 1913 today
would be similar to 1997 today with 2010 being a
more impressive system, but still well below 1913.
Today’s Advances in Hydrology
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service
 Flood systems are in place, as in parts of
the Miami and Muskingum systems.
 Awareness is much better.
 Forecasting is now available with decent
lead times.
 River modeling continues to improve.
 Ensemble and probabilistic forecasting are
advancing.
 Flood mapping is expanding.
 Hydrology is in the rapid growth period
much like meteorology was in 1985.
Today’s Advances in Hydrology
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service
 River Ensemble Forecasting System
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mmefs
Today’s Advances in Hydrology
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service
 River Ensemble Forecasting System
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mmefs
Questions!
Protecting Lives and Property
National Weather Service
 [email protected]
NOAA/NWS/OHRFC
Service Coordination Hydrologist
THANKS!
Download
Related flashcards
Create Flashcards