AP7
Quantification of the impacts of future
floods and low-flows on the economy in
the transnational Meuse basin
Structure
1. Definition of the terms in economic losses
2. Evaluation Questionnaires
3. German perspective of assessment in flood losses
4. Drought losses
a) Literature review
b) PAWN (NL)
c) EPIC Grid model (W)
d) MIKE Basin
5. Open Questions
6. Discussion
Type of damages
-
Direct flood losses:
by inundation direct induced damages.
direct flood losses postulate direct contact with water, e.g.
buildings, inventory, traffic areas and agricultural areas
direct flood losses are subdivided in immobile and mobile
damages.
-
Indirect flood losses:
indirect damages are not generated by direct contact with
water. indirect damages are caused by detraction of economic
activities. e.g.
1. Immediate asset value losses; a short term
consequence of inundation of business e.g. loss of
production, disruption of economic activities
2. Induced asset value losses; affected companies are
suppliers of not affected companies (chain reaction)
3. Prosperity damages, a long term consequence in a
flood affected area due to lost of confidence in safety,
absence of tourism, reduction of investments in the
affected area.
Evaluation of direct flood losses
• Qualitative/Quantitative?
Qualitative
Quantitativ
Qualitative assessment of flood
damage by damage risk maps
A risk classification in e.g.
negligible, low, medium, high
vulnerability hazard
Monetary assessment by
damage functions
corresponding to aggregated
land use categories
damage functions yield
damage in proportion to water
level h or partially, to the
intensity of flow (e.g. velocity/
times/ depths of flow)
The proportion of the damage
is multiplied by an asset value
Evaluation of direct flood losses
• Methodology of Quantitative monetary assessment
Land use category
Asset value for land
use category [€m2]
Inundation area; -depht
Relative damage
Schadensfunktionen
100
rel. damage [%]
90
80
70
Schaden, %
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Wasserstand, m
Waterdepht [m]
Stage damage function
corresponding to land
use
Bachmann et. al. 2009
Damage per land
use category [€]
Evaluation of direct flood losses
• Methodology of Qualitative assessment
=> damage risk map: Expressing the potential damage of vulnerable
elements. Based on flood hazard and vulnerability
Evaluation of direct flood losses
Region
Qualitative
Quantitative
Scale
Micro Meso
(local) (regional)
Wallonia
(ULG – GxABT)
Wallonia
(ULG - HACH)
France (EPAMA)
Flanders (FHR)
Netherlands
(RWS)
Germany (IWW)
Macro
(global)
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Evaluation of direct flood losses
Region
Damage functions / Vulnerability indicators
h
vflow
t
vrise
Wallonia
(GxABT)
-
-
-
-
Wallonia
(HACH)
X
X
X
X
France
(EPAMA)
X
X
-
-
Flanders
(FHR)
X
-
-
-
Netherlands
(Deltares)
X
-
-
-
Germany
(IWW)
X
X
-
-
Evaluation of direct flood losses
Region
Damage functions / Vulnerability indicators
Wallonia
(ULG – GxABT)
The damage risk map (restricted access), expressing the potential damage of vulnerable
elements located in areas subject to flood hazard by overflowing rivers.
The risk of damage is determined by the combination of two factors: the flood hazard and
vulnerability. The risk of damage may be negligible, low, medium or high.
Wallonia
(ULG - HACH)
relative damage functions; loss model: FLEMO; damage ratio of the asset value; land
registry income as an indicator for assessing the asset value; vulnerability based on
combination of water depth, velocity, duration, water rising and social indicators recorded
in the INS database
France (EPAMA)
The used damage functions yield damage in proportion to water level h or partially, to the
flow velocity if v> 0.5m/s. A damage function is defined for each land use category .
Flanders (FHR)
relationship between a given water depth and the dependent damage factor for different
land use category's
Netherlands
(RWS)
Stage damage functions (SDFs) are used to calculate the proportion of the maximum
damage which actually occurs under given flood depths.
Germany (IWW)
Based on indirect damage functions. The used damage functions yield damage in
proportion to water level h or partially, to the intensity of flow (e.g. velocity/ times/ depths of
flow).
Land use data
Region
Available data
Wallonia(GxABT)
COSW
Wallonia (HACH)
PICC Database
IGN Database
INS
Land registry database
France (EPAMA)
CORINE Land Cover
IGN maps
Non-digital Information
Flanders (FHR)
CORINE Land Cover
Small Scale Land Use Map Flanders
KADVEC
Industrial Zones
Top50vGIS
Multinet
Transmitting
Water Collection Plants
Water Surface
Netherlands
(RWS)
CORINE
CLUE
Landuse Scanner
Germany (IWW)
CORINE data
ATKIS data
Land use categories
Region
Category groups (CORINE)
Artificial Surfaces
Wallonia
(GxABT)
Wallonia
(HACH)
Flanders
(FHR)
- housing
- road
- rail and waterways
network
- Roads and
Railways
- Point elements
- Residential
buildings
- Urban area
- Industrial
buildings
- Industrial area
- Infrastructure
- Airport
Agricult
ural
Areas
Forest and
semi
natural
areas
Wetlands
Water
bodies
others
X
X
-
-
- Communities
facilities &
public
utilities
- Economic
activities
-
-
-
-
-
- Cropland
- Pasture
- Nature
- Forests
- Recreation
-
X
Land use categories
Region
Category groups (CORINE)
Artificial Surfaces
Agricultural
Areas
Netherlands
(RWS)
- Residential – high density
- Residential – low density
- Commercial
- Port areas
- Infrastructure
- Construction/ mines
- arable
land
- pasture
France
(EPAMA)
- town centre's
- houses out of
town
- industrial or
commercial areas
- transport network
Germany
(IWW)
- private housing/ household
contents
- industry/manufacturing
sector
- commerce/service sector
- mixed use
- state/public sector
Forest and
semi
natural
areas
Wetlands
Water
bodies
others
- Recreation
X
-
-
- equipments
- other
X
X
-
X
-
-
-
-
- Cars,
mobile
transport
assets
- leisure
Evaluation of indirect losses
Region
Qualitative Quantitative
Scale
Micro Meso Macro
Wallonia
(ULG - GXABT)
-
-
-
-
-
Wallonia
(ULG - HACH)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
X
X
-
X
-
X
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
X
-
X
-
France (EPAMA)
Flanders (FHR)
Netherlands
(RWS)
Germany (IWW)
Indirect losses
Region
Categories / economic sectors
Data basis
Wallonia
(GxABT)
-
-
Wallonia
(HACH)
-
-
France
(EPAMA)
Vulnerability of:
- crisis management and emergency services
- services and activities required for recovery
- activities potentially creating more damage (SEVESO,
fuel, waste storage)
- major networks (power stations, drinking water stations)
Flanders
(FHR)
- Agriculture (pastures and croplands)
- Industry
- Houses
Netherlands
(RWS)
Germany
(IWW)
-Trade, Commerce
- Financial sector
- Industry
- Public and private service
- SIRENE
- PPRi
- ICPE
-
Geomarketing
Data (infas)
Uncertainty
Region
Wallonia
(GxABT)
Direct flood
losses
Method
Indirect
Flood
Losses
-
-
-
Flood frequency uncertainty
Wallonia
(HACH)
X
France
(EPAMA)
X
Flanders
(FHR)
Evaluated by experts
-
Netherlands
(RWS)
X
Germany
(IWW)
-
- Inundation depth
- probability of flooding
- stage-damage functions
(SDFs)
- maximum damage per
land use type
- land use
-
Input variables
X
-
German perspective
• General Approach
Land use category
Asset value for
land use category
[€m-2]
Inundation area; -depth
Relative damage
Schadensfunktionen
100
rel. damage [%]
90
80
70
Schaden, %
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
Wasserstand, m
Waterdepht [m]
Stage damage function
corresponding to land
use
6
Damage per land
use category [€]
German perspective
• Damage Categories
- Spatial Information : ATKIS Data (Vector data 1:25.000)
- Aggregation of the ATKIS object groups
to damage categories for meso-scale economic damage
potential analysis
- Allocation of damage functions and asset values to corresponding
damage categories
German perspective
• Example: Damage Category Aggregation
Objektart
ATKIS
Characterisation
5101
Stream,
Rivulet
5102
chnnel
5112
Inland
lake,
artificial lake
2111
general
residential
building area
2121
Mining Company
2122
Disposal site
2129
Waste
Water
Treatment Plant
2112
Industry and
Commerce
Index
Category
(mobil)
Index
Category
(immobil)
Not relevant in damage
assessment
0
0
Private housing
1
101
Industry and
Commerce
2
102
Characterisation
use category
Land
River,
German perspective
• Damage functions of categories
1. Large number of damage
functions in literature
2. Representation of this variety
by stochastic interpretation
=> Probability Density Function
for each water level
=> Population Mean
=> damage function for economic
assessment
(Kutschera, 2008)
German perspective
• Damage function (industry immobile)
- including uncertainty
=> Quantile
German perspective
• Specific Asset Values (stochastically evaluated)
German perspective
• Example Wupper (BMBF REISE)
1. Land use data (ATKIS-Basis-DLM):
2. Raster data: Resolution 25m x 25m per grid cell
=> Considered catchment area 282km2 (467.200 Elements)
Open Questions
0. national / partially common/ common approach
1. Monetary-/ Qualitative Assessment
2. Separate consideration flood losses/drought losses
3. Direct flood losses mobile/immobile
4. Land use data
5. Determination of Land use categories
6. Flood damage functions/which hydraulic input variables (t/h/v…)
7. Assessment of direct/indirect losses
Open Questions
1. Separate consideration flood losses/drought losses
- Existing damage functions in flood damage assessment
Open Questions
2. Land use data?
- Suggestion CORINE data
Advantage
Disadvantage:
- Available Europe wide
- Free download
- Aggregation of damage
categories
- Only 5 category groups
(Artificial Surfaces, Agricultural
Areas, Forest and semi natural
areas, wetlands, water bodies)
- Resolution (100m x 100m)
http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and
maps/data#c5=all&c0=5&b_start=0&c11
=landuse
=> more inaccurate than
ATKIS Data (German
Approach)
CORINE categories
Open Questions
3. Aggregation of Land use data to Categories
=> CORINE Land use groups?
Artificial Surfaces
Agricultural
Areas
Forest and
semi natural
areas
Wetlands
Water
bodies
others
Open Questions
4. Indirect flood losses?
- Partially approaches exist
but not tested
- Data availability?
- Time frame / Budget?
low flow losses
• Considered disciplines in AMICE project
• Navigation
• Agriculture
• Water supply (drinking water)
• Energy
• Average discharge of the Meuse: Q = 230 m3/s
• Decrease of discharge to Q = 130 m3/s
=> economic problems occur (Woelders, Keizer; 2007)
• Decrease of discharge below Q = 1100 m3/s
(water gauge Lobhit) sluices enclosed?
Low flow losses
• Assessment of low flow situations
Region
Wallonia
(GxABT)
Agriculture
Public
Water
supply
Navigation
Energy
X
Wallonia
(HACH)
France
(EPAMA)
Flanders
(FHR)
Netherlands
(RWS)
Germany
(IWW)
X
Evaluation of low flow losses
• Navigation: Information questionnaire
Region
Wallonia
(ULG-GxABT)
Monetary / Approach
Qualitative
Qualitative A decree regulates movements of boats and
divers on and in the river. It includes minimum
flows needed for activities.
Evaluation of low flow losses
• Energy: Information questionnaire
Region
Monetary/
Qualitative
Approach
Netherlands
(RWS)
monetary
Cost functions using the difference between
actual water temperature and optimal or
maximum water temperature is used.
Evaluation of low flow losses
• Literature research examples: Agriculture
Title/Author/
Model
Monetary / Approach
Qualitative
Palmer Drought
Severity Index
Qualitative
Evaluation of the divergence of normal conditions in
respect to precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil
moisture on a time scale of month.
Economic drought
Management Index
Qualitative
Cost – benefit ratio about reducing drought risk for
different water rates
Aqua Crop
Monetary
Estimation of crop yield. Due to the respective market
prices a monetary assessment is possible.
WEAP-Model
Monetary
Estimation of crop yield. Due to the respective market
prices a monetary assessment is possible.
=> Important parameter to assess low flow losses in agriculture:
Available Soil moisture content
Evaluation of low flow losses
• Palmer drought severity index (PDSI):
- Widely used in the USA
- PDSI is based on a supply-and-demand model of soil moisture
- Algorithm based on most readily data: precipitation and temperature
- Qualitative Assessment
- Time scale Month (What do we need?)
Evaluation of low flow losses
• Palmer drought severity index (PDSI):
1
PDSI i  0,897  PDSI i 1   Zi
3
Evaluation of variance to
„normal“ conditions
Time scale of months
Zi: value of the moisture anomaly
Zi  Ki  D
K: Weighting factor for spatial variability
D: Difference between actual precipitation and CAFEC precipitation

DPP
CAFEC (Climatically Appropriate For Existing Conditions) precipitation:

P   i  PE  i  PR   i  PRO  i  PL
i 
ETi
R
RO i
L
;i  i ;  i 
; i  i
PEi
PR i
PROi
PLi
ET: Evapotranspiration
PE: Potential ET
R : Runoff
PR: Potential Runoff
L : Loss
PL. Potential Loss
Evaluation of low flow losses
• Palmer drought severity index (PDSI):
Advantage: Easy to handle; Data availability
Disadvantage: strongly simplification, Qualitative assessment
Evaluation of low flow losses
• Aqua Crop:
- AquaCrop is a product of FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations)
- Simulation model to determine the required amount
of water for a specific crop yield
- FAO crop requirements are calculated assuming a demand site
with simplified hydrological agro-hydrological processes such as
precipitation, evapotranspiration and crop growth
- The FAO Agriculture Approach is widely used in other
water management models e.g. WEAP (Water Evaluation
And Planning System)
Evaluation of low flow losses
• Parameters FAO Approach
Input Parameters
Output Parameters
Area [ha]
Area [ha]
Kc [-] Evaporation Coefficient
Kc [-] Evaporation Coefficient
Effective Precipitation [mm]
Percentage of Precipitation for
Evapotranspiration
Runoff from Precipitation [Million cm³]
Precipitation [mm]
Observed Precipitation [mm]
ETRef [mm]
Infiltration/Runoff flow [Million cm³]
Potential Yield [kg/ha]
ETPotential [Million cm³]
Yield Response Factor [-]
ETActual (including irrigation) [Million
cm³]
Market Price [€/kg]
ETShortfall [Million cm³]
Irrigated [-]
Total Yield [kg/ha]
Irrigation Fraction [%]
Total Market Value [€]
Evaluation of low flow losses
• FAO Approach
Advantage
Disadvantage
Available Input Parameters
from hydrologic models
No validated model existing
No Experience
Evaluation of low flow losses
• Public Water supply: Literature Research
Titel/Author
Monetary/
Qualitative
Approach
Antonino
Canvcelliere,
Vincenzo Nicolosi,
Giuseppe Rossi
Qualitative
Assessment of the water supply system via the
factors.
Temporal Reliability:
n
rel t  s
ns: Intervals, demand is fully met
N
N: total number of intervals
N
 Rt
Volumetric reliability:
(Ratio between the total volume released
and the total demand volume)
rel V  t 1
Average shortage period length:
ns: Intervals, demand is fully met
N: total number of intervals
NP: number of sequent periods
with deficits
A Vdef 
=> Water availability – demand approach is required
N
 Dt
t 1
N  ns
NP
Evaluation of low flow losses
• Public Water supply: Literature Research
Titel/Author
Monetary/
Qualitative
Approach
KENJI JINNO, XU
ZONGXUE, AKIRA
KAWAMURA &
KANAME TAJIRI
Qualitative
Assessment of the water supply system via the
1 NS
factors.

 Ii
NS i 1
NS: days of period
Reliability α:
I state variable

Resiliency β:
Risk Assessment of
a Water Supply
System during
Drought
1
1 N
 FPt
NF t 1
N
Vulnerability γ:

 VE t
t 1
N
 VD t
VE: water deficit
VD: water demand during
deficit
t 1
Drought Risk Index (DRI):
  1  (1  )  2  (1  )  3  
DRI = 1 => high drought risk
DRI = 0 => no drought risk
- HEC-PRN
=> Water Balance Models proposed - Aquatool
- MODSIM
- STELLA
Evaluation of low flow losses
• Navigation: Literature Research
Titel/Author
Monetary /
Qualitative
Effects of low
Monetary
water
levels on the river
Rhine on the inland
waterway transport
sector
Olaf Jonkeren;
Jos van Ommeren;
Piet Rietveld;
Approach
Relationship between price per ton and the
transport capacity due to the water level
Evaluation of low flow losses
• Energy: Literature Research
Title/Author
Monetary/
Qualitative
Approach
Jack Sieber;
David Purkey
WEAP-Model
monetary
Quantifying Hydropower generation due to
produced Energy depending on hydraulic
potential.
P = Q*μ*ρ*g*h
Deviation to average (year) power
generation of water power plant is
calculated.
Absolute monetary assessment by energy
price
=> Cooling water demands
low flow losses
• Water Management Models available
Region
Available data
Wallonia (GxABT)
EPICGrid model
Wallonia (HACH)
France (EPAMA)
Flanders (FHR)
MIKEBASIN
Netherlands
(RWS)
PAWN-Model
Germany (IWW)
Evaluation of low flow losses
• Water Management Models used by AMICE partners
Region
Model
Practicability
Input data
Wallonia
(GxABT)
EPIC grid
model
Applicable for the agriculture, this model
can highlight inland water stress and
produce raster maps (resolution 1km²)
Soil, weather,
Agricultural
practices, DTM
(readily availabl
for Wallonia from
1961 to 2005)
Flandern
(FHR)
MIKEBASiN
easy to use in itself, but when management
rules are to be implemented, extra
programming is needed to send the water
where you want it
rainfall, evaporation,
withdrawals,
discharges, navigation,
river/canal discharges,
water levels
managment rules,
economic loss curves
(nearly all fluxes in and
out the surface water
system)
Evaluation of low flow losses
• Water Management Models used by AMICE partners
Region
Model
Practicability
Input data
Netherlands
(RWS)
PAWNModel
PAWN toolbox is used. NHI is currently
under development. Consists of a
hydrological modeling toolbox and effect
models. He effect models include
AGRICOM for agriculture, DEMNAT for
terrestrial nature, BIVAS for shipping and a
cooling water model. The shipping model is
a cost model that indicates additional costs
when water levels go down. The number of
ship movements is taken into account for.
The cooling water model is used to
calculate potential cooling capacity for each
power plant in the Netherlands. The
capacity is taken as the difference between
the maximum allowed temperature and the
river water temperature at the location.
Some modules can be
used separately from
The hydrological
toolbox, but do need a
detailed input.
Input:
Time series from
hydrological models
(e.g. SOBEK and
distribution model)
Open Questions
1. Approaches to assess risk due to Low Flow
Open Questions
1. Separate consideration flood losses/drought losses
- Available soil water content (agriculture)
Suggestion: Task group (LOW FLOW)
1. Navigation
- Rijkswaterstaat (Netherlands)
- De Scheepvart (Belgium)
- IWW (Germany)
2. Agriculture
- FUSAGx (Wallonia)
- FHR
- IWW (Germany)
3. Public Water Supply
- IWW
- AWW
- FHR
4. Energy
- EPAMA (French)
- Wallonia Region
- IWW (Germany)
Data Collection? (Example)
1. Navigation
- Quantity of ships navigating the Meuse in a defined time scale
- Price per tons
2. Agriculture
- Agriculture areas in the Meuse basin
- Market prices of specific crops
3. Public Water Supply
- Wherefrom is drinking water taken?
4. Energy
- Temperature threshold values for cooling circuits
- Water demand of power plant (e.g. l/kwh)