Climate Related
Problem at
Indramayu
Kusnomo Tamkani and Rizaldi Boer
Dinas Pertanian Indramayu,
Bogor Agricultural University
OUTLINE
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•
Introduction
Climate Problems
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–
–
–
•
What is the problem ?
For whom is this a problem ?
Why is this a problem ?
When and how does the problem occur ?
Impacts
– What kinds of data illustrate the problems ?
•
Process of Data Collection
INTRODUCTION
•
•
Located in north coastal
area of West Java with total
land area of about 214
thousand hectares
It has 28 sub-districts and
310 villages
NORTH
MIDDLE
SOUTH
Java sea
•
•
Others
14%
Forest
17%
•
Agriculture
plantation
3%
Fish
Ponds
8%
Paddy
Field
58%
•
•
Land use is dominated by
rice paddy field (58%)
95% of area has elevation
of between 0-3 m a.s.l. and
5% between 3-100 m a.s.l
(part of the south region)
Mean daily temperature is
between 26 and 27oC
Annual rainfall is about
1430 mm with 75 rainy
days.
Population is 1.6 million
with growth rate of about
1.6% per annum
North area is mainly
end tail irrigated areas
and fish pond, salt
mining
•
•
NORTH
annual planting area of rice
is about 205 thousand ha
and total annual production
is about 1.2 million ton
(Contribute to about 27% of
West Java)
MIDDLE
SOUTH
South area is mainly
rainfed areas
(upland crops and
horticultures)
Middle area is
mainly irrigated
areas (dominated
by rice)
The main economic activity of
Indramayu’s people is
agriculture
About 65% of population
depend on this sector. Of this,
about 95% engages in ricebased farming system. Mean
•
Contribution of agriculture
sector to total gross regional
domestic product is quite
significant
Contribution of sectors to
the total GRDP at
Indramayu in 2001
Transportation
& Comm. 3%
Finance, rental
& company
services Services
2%
5%
Trading, Hotel
& Rest.10%
Buildings
1%
Without Oil and Gas
Finance, rental
& company
services
4%
Transporatation
& Comm.
8%
Trading, Hotel
& Rest. 26%
Buildings
2%
Electricity, gas
& clean water
1%
Agric,
Livestock,
Forestry &
Fishery
40%
Services
13%
Electricity, gas
& clean water
2%
Agric,
Livestock,
Forestry &
Fishery
16%
Mining and
Digging
0%
Processing
Industry
5%
1
Processing
Industry
20%
Mining and
Digging
42%
With Oil and Gas
Contribution of agriculture
sector to total Gross
Regional Domestic Product
is 16% if oil and gas included
and 40% if oil and gas is
excluded
Climate Related Problems
• Flood and Drought are two main climate-related problems in
Indramayu
• Rice is the main crop that is severely affected by the two events.
• Contribution of the two events to production loss at Indramayu is about
86%, while due to pest and diseases is 14% (Based on data from
1997-2003)
Pest and
Diseases
14%
Flood &
Drought
86%
Climate Related Problems
• Flood seasons is between January and February (Probability
of occurrence and Drought season between June-August
75
25000
45
20000
30
15000
10000
15
5000
0
0
60
Probability (%)
Probability (%)
30000
16000
Probability
Flood Area
14000
12000
10000
45
8000
30
6000
4000
15
2000
0
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month
Month
Average of Flood Area (Ha)
Probability
Drought Area
75
Average of Drought Area
60
35000
Kab. Indramayu
Drought
Drought
Flood
90000
350
Luas
TanamArea
(ha)
Planting
98/99
70000
99/00
300
250
00/01
60000
01/02
50000
200
40000
150
30000
100
20000
50
10000
Okt Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Agu Sep
North/Middle
North
North
Early onset of dry
season: normally
caused rice
production loss of
more than 150,000
ton
Flood caused rice
production loss of
more than 60,000
ton
0
0
South
Mean Rainfall
Hujan (mm)
Curah (mm)
Rata-Rata
(ha)
97/98
80000
Problem
Delay monsoon:
normally caused rice
production loss of
less than 6000 ton
rice
upland rice
rice
Fallow
Flood will flush out
fish and shrimp to
ocean (no yield
expected)
Vegetables/upland crops
Salt mining
Fish/shrimp culture
Early onset and
delay wet and dry
season, reduce salt
production
Case-1: Drought development (PS 1990/1991)
Problem – early onset of dry season
400
CH Musim Rendeng
jauh di bawah normal
250
60000
50000
200
40000
150
30000
100
20000
50
10000
Sep-91
Aug-91
Jul-91
Jun-91
May-91
Apr-91
Mar-91
Feb-91
Jan-91
0
Dec-90
Okt-90
0
Nov-90
CurahRainfall
Hujan (mm)
(mm)
Mean
Puso
300
70000
Tanam
(ha)(ha)
Luas
Planting
Area
CH-Normal
Terkena
350
80000
CH
CH normal = normal rainfall; Terkena = affected areas; Puso = completely damaged area;
Tanam=Planting, Luas=Area; Curah hujan = rainfall
Case-2: Flood Development (PS 1999/2000) ~
Rainfall in January was far above normal
400
CH
CH-Normal
Tanam
Terkena
300
60000
Puso
250
70000
50000
40000
150
30000
100
20000
50
10000
Sep-00
Aug-00
Jul-00
Jun-00
May-00
Apr-00
Mar-00
Feb-00
Jan-00
0
Dec-99
Okt-99
0
Nov-99
200
Planting
Area
(ha)(ha)
Luas
350
(mm)
Mean
CurahRainfall
Hujan (mm)
80000
CH normal = normal rainfall; Terkena = affected areas; Puso = completely damaged
area; Tanam=Planting, Luas=Area; Curah hujan = rainfall
Impact of Drought on Status of Family Welfare
Number of Household
180000
2001
2003
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
Pra KS
KS I
KS II
KS III
KS IV-up
Income Status
2001
KS III
15%
KS II
25%
KS IV-up
5%
Pra KS
34%
KS I
21%
Severe floods and
drought will increase
number of
Pra-KS: Case in 2003,
the devastating impact
of drought (long dry
season) occurred in
2002-2003 increase the
number of Poor family
by2003
about 14% (Pra-KS
and KS1)
KS III KS IV-up
3%
10%
KS II
18%
KS I
32%
Pra KS
37%
Why is the problem ?
• There was no early warning system for drought
and flood
• Climate forecast was not used to anticipate the
events due to no knowledge in using climate
forecast information
• Farmers planted rice paddy in area which were
not recommended (outside of area which not
scheduled to receive irrigation water)
• High sediment in the downstream (river) and
poor maintenance of the drainage system
1991
1995
1992
1996
1993
1994
1997
IMPACT
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
Drought
1998
Flood
1997
Total area destroyed
by drought increased
significantly in El-Nino
years. Total area
destroyed by flood was
much less than that by
drought
1996
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1989
Flood or Drought Area (ha)
Crop Failure due to flood and drought
Other Impact of El-Nino events on agriculture production
• In addition to rice, Indramayu is also known as Mango City.
– Population of Mango tree more than 860.000 trees
– Average annual production was about 35.000 tons
– Potentially, one mango tree could produce 400 kg/tree/annum
– During El-Nino years, Mango production and the quality normally
increased.
– It was estimated in El-Nino years, annual production could increase up to
15% ~ 40.000 tons but the price normally decreased
• El-Nino also affect either upstream or downstream agribusiness activities
– Agriculture inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides can not be absorbed
– Many agriculture machines such as hand tractors, rice mills were not
operated. Some farmers get income from renting the hand tractors.
– Income and purchasing power of farmers decreased significantly ~ may
affect economy of Indramayu as a whole
NATIONAL
Task Force for Refugees
and Hazards
Data Collection
Process
GOVERNOR
Task Force for Refugees
and Hazards
REGENT
District
District
Offices
Offices
Task Force for Refugees
and Hazards
Local Agency
for extension
Head of Sub Districts
Pest and Diseases Observer/
Head of Agriculture Section/
Head of Statistic Section
Extension Workers
Head of Village
Raksabumi (Water and agriculture)
Lebe (Welfare), Lurah Polisi (Security)
All agriculture data, damaged data, refugees number, etc