Demography of Contemporary Uzbekistan
A Presentation by Ross Smeltzer
Geographic Location
Post-Soviet Politics of
Uzbekistan
• According
to the US Department
of State, while, in theory, “The
constitution provides for a
presidential system with
separation of powers between the
executive, legislative, and judicial
branches. In practice…President
Islam Karimov and the centralized
executive branch dominate
political life and exercise nearly
complete control over the other
branches…Citizens did not have
the right in practice to change
their government through peaceful
and democratic means.”
•In 2009, Uzbekistan was
classified by Freedom House as
one of its “Worst of the Worst”
and received the lowest possible
ratings in terms of both civil
liberties and political rights.
“It is the duty of every citizen to defend the republic of Uzbekistan.”
The Post-Soviet Transition in Uzbekistan
• President Karimov, a former economist, committed Uzbekistan to a
“gradualist” transition to a market economy.
• Uzbekistan’s GDP declined during the first years of the economic transition,
recovered by 1995 and is now growing. The percentage of the population
classified as living below the poverty line also increased during the transition
period.
• But by 2001 it was the only country in the former Soviet Union to have
surpassed its 1989 level of GDP.
• Agriculture remains the mainstay of the economy and contributes around a
third of its gross domestic product. This is untypical of the former Soviet
states, and has resulted in a very “oligarch”-dominated economy.
Uzbekistan’s Post-Soviet Economic Growth
Economic Transition
Continued
•According to the UN’s Development
and Transition agency, Uzbekistan’s
recent growth has not been
accompanied with a reduction in
inequality and poverty.
• The percentage of Uzbeks who
lived in poverty was 44% in 1989
and by 2007 this number had grown
to 47%.
•Poverty in the country is an
overwhelmingly rural phenomena,
with 55% of the rural population
living in poverty compared with 4%
in the capital, Tashkent.
• This has implications for Uzbek
emigration behavior.
Uzbekistan’s Population within the Soviet Union
• Between 1897 and 1991, the population of the region that is now Uzbekistan more than
quintupled, while the population of the entire territory of the former Soviet Union had
not quite doubled.
• In 1991 the natural rate of population increase (the birth rate minus the death rate) in
Uzbekistan was 28.3 per 1,000--more than four times that of the Soviet Union as a
whole, and an increase from ten years earlier.
• Five of the eight most densely populated provinces of the former Soviet Union--Andijon,
Farghona, Tashkent, Namangan, and Khorazm--are located in Uzbekistan
• In the last All-Union Census (1989) 71.4% of the Republic’s citizens were ethnic
Uzbeks.
General Population Characteristics
• According to estimates, Uzbekistan was expected to have 27,606,007 citizens by
2009 (Researchers must rely on estimates, since the last census of the republic
was in 1989. A census is scheduled for 2010, however.)
• This makes it the 42nd most populous country in the world and the most
populous of the post-Soviet Central Asian republics. Its population comprises
nearly half of the total population of Central Asia.
• Ethnic Uzbeks now constitute around 80% of the republic’s population, with
Russians making up around 6% and Tajiks a further 5%. The rest of the
population is composed of small contingents of Tatars, Kazakhs, Armenians,
Koreans and Karakalpaks.
Population Structure
Uzbekistan is not only a populous country. It is also a relatively youthful one.
Age Structure:
• 0-14 years: 28.1% (male 3,970,386/female 3,787,371)
• 15-64 years: 67% (male 9,191,439/female 9,309,791)
• 65 years and over: 4.9% (male 576,191/female 770,829) (2009 est.)
Median Age:
• total: 24.7 years
• male: 24.2 years
• female: 25.2 years (2009 est.)
Urbanization
• urban population: 37% of total population (2008)
• rate of urbanization: 1.6% annual rate of change (2005-10 est.)
Population Stucture: 1990
Population Pyramid: 2000
Population Pyramid: 2010
Projected Population Pyramid: 2050
Russia’s Population Structure in Comparison
Age Structure
• 0-14 years: 14.8% (male 10,644,833/female 10,095,011)
• 15-64 years: 71.5% (male 48,004,040/female 52,142,313)
• 65 years and over: 13.7% (male 5,880,877/female 13,274,173)
(2009 est.)
Median Age
• total: 38.4 years
• male: 35.2 years
• female: 41.6 years (2009 est.)
Russian Population Pyramid: 2010
Central Asian Populations in Comparison
Uzbekistan’s Population Growth
According to USAID,
the population growth
rate of Uzbekistan was
0.94 in 2009, making it
the country with the
134th highest population
growth rate, below that
of the United States at
130th. Russia’s
population growth rate,
in contrast, is -0.47.
Urban vs. Rural Population Growth
Population Continued
•The UN has projected that by 2025 the
Uzbek population could be as high as 34,
203,000 and that by 2050 it could reach
40,513,000.
Data taken from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators
Uzbekistan’s Fertility Rate
• Though Uzbekistan’s population has been growing steadily since the 1960’s,
its fertility rate began stagnating at around the same time. It then began
declining to its present rate.
•Uzbekistan’s 2009 fertility rate is 1.95 children born/woman (2009 est.)
•According to UNICEF, it was 4.07 in 1990 and 2.36 in 2003.
• The republic’s crude birth rate is 17.58 births/1,000 population (2009 est.)
• In comparison, Russia’s fertility rate is 1.41 children born/woman (2009 est.)
and its birth rate is 11.1 births/1,000 population (2009 est.)
Uzbekistan’s Declining Fertility Rate
The Long Term Decline
in Uzbek Fertility Rates
• This data was taken from
Magali Barbieri, Alain Blum’s
and Elena Dolknigh’s
“Nuptuality, Fertility, Use of
Contraception and Family
Policies in Uzbekistan.”
• The authors argue that “the
demographic transition is well
under way” in Uzbekistan and
that it is a product both of
Soviet-era modernization and
contemporary government
policy.
The Uzbek “Demographic Transition” in Regional Perspective
Regional Comparison Continued (up to 2004)
Explanations for Declining Fertility
• Barbieri, Blum and Dolkigh argue that Soviet educational modernization, specifically programs targeted
towards women (women’s education programs, availability of abortions and the mandatory inclusion of
women into the workplace), account for the decline in the fertility rate.
Uzbek Literacy
• total population: 99.3%
• male: 99.6%
• female: 99% (2003 est.)
Governmental Efforts to lower Fertility
• Buckley, Barrett and Asminkin find that the Karimov government has actively campaigned to reduce
fertility and has made family-planning a governmental priority
• They argue that the “Red Apple Program,” a state-funded program to increase family-planning awareness,
pressures women to use IUD’s, at the expense of all other forms of contraception.
• One Bukharan woman reported that “when you go to the clinic after the birth, they insist on the IUD.
My gynecologist said to me, ‘Lie down; I’ll apply the IUD. You shouldn’t become pregnant for 3 years.’
They put pressure on women.”
Life Expectancy and Mortality in Uzbekistan
• Life expectancy at birth for the total population was, in 2009, 71.96 years
• For men it was 68.95 years
• For women it was 75.15 years
Top Ten Causes of Death in Uzbekistan
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Ischaemic heart disease – 33%
Cerebrovascular diseases – 14%
Lower respiratory infections – 6%
Hypertensive heart disease – 5%
Cirrhosis of the liver – 4%
Perinatal conditions – 3%
Inflammatory heart diseases – 3%
Tuberculosis – 3%
Chronic obtrusive pulmonary disease –
2%
• Diabetes mellitus – 2%
Data taken from the “Death and DALY” estimates by cause, 2002
• The WHO in Uzbekistan estimates that
“The leading broad-group causes of
death are cardiovascular diseases
(57.87%), respiratory disease (8.38%),
cancer (7.24%), external causes (injuries
and poisoning) (7.21%), diseases of the
digestive system (6.43%) and infectious
and parasitic diseases (2.88%).
• Most of the widespread health problems
are related to poor nutrition,
environments and food and water safety,
and low physical activity.”
Mortality Rates Continued
• The Death Rate of Uzbekistan • The Under-5 mortality rate in
in 2009 was 5.29 (deaths/
1990 was 74 (per 1000 births)
1000 persons). In 2003 it was • This declined to 38 in 2008
7.97 and in 2007 it was 7.73. • The infant mortality rate
In 2009 Russia’s was 16.2 and
(under 1) was 61 in 1990
Ukraine’s was 16.4.
• It was 34 in 2008
Long Term Mortality Decline
Infant Mortality and Vaccination Rates
Demographic Transition Model
• Model designed to
represent the transition
from pre-industrial to
modern society.
•Most developing
countries fall within the
second or third stages
of the model
• Uzbekistan’s
declining Death Rate
and Birth Rate (with
the predicted declining
Fertility Rate) means
that it is within these
transition stages.
Migration
• Konstantin Romodovsky, the head of Russia’s migration service, said that
Uzbekistan is the third-largest source of migrant labor for Russia.
• In 2006, a total of 500,000 Uzbek migrants travelled to Russia for work.
• Most are, according to the United Nations’ Development Program for
Uzbekistan, forced to work abroad because of a lack of opportunity in
Uzbekistan.
• Uzbekistan’s Net Migration Rate is -2.94 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2009
est.)
• At least 10% of Uzbekistan’s labor force works abroad, mostly in Russia and
Kazakhstan.
• Most Uzbek labor migrants remain abroad for between 3-10 years.
Migration(departed) vs. migration(arrived)
Migration Continued
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33% of external labor migrants have higher education
31% have secondary education
26.2% have specialized post-secondary education
Migrants can earn $300-$400 a month in Russia. They would typically earn
145,000 sums ($115) a month in Uzbekistan.
• One female interviewee said that “What work can you find in the village?
All you can do is work in the field all year. My husband tried to earn more,
and went to work in the field when he had a temperature, and when it was
raining. He earned peanuts - not enough for anything...”
• On average, individual migrants send 90,000 sums home from abroad.
• Migrant remittances represent around 7% of Uzbekistan’s GDP, much
lower than Armenia’s, Tajikstan’s or Moldova’s.
Images
Bibliography
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Agadjanian, Victor and Makarova, Ekaterina. “From Soviet Modernization to Post-Soviet Transformation:
Understanding Marriage and Fertility Dynamics in Uzbekistan.” Development and Change. 34(3): 447-473 (2003).
Barbieri, Magali, Blum, Alain, Dolknigh, Elena. “Nuptiality, Fertility, Use of Contraception, and Family Policies in
Uzbekistan.” Population Studies. Vol. 50, No. 1 (March, 1996) pp. 69-88.
“Buckley, Cynthia, Barrett, Jennifer and Asminkin, Yakov P., “Reproductive and Sexual Health Among Young Adults
in Uzbekistan.” Studies in Family Planning. (35)1: 1-14 (2004).
CIA – The World Factbook
UNDP’s Human Development Report 2009
United Nations’ Department of Economic and Social Affairs/ Population Division – Country Profile, Uzbekistan
U.S. Census Bureau’s International Database
Uzbekistan in Figures – Joint Analysis by the UNDP Country Office and the Center for Economic Research in
Tashkent, Uzbekistan
World Bank’s Data Finder – Country Profile, Uzbekistan
The World Bank – Country Brief 2010, Uzbekistan
World Health Organization – Country Profile, Uzbekistan