CHAPTER 2 FUNCTIONAL FORMS OF REGRESSION MODELS Damodar Gujarati Econometrics by Example LOG-LINEAR, DOUBLE LOG, OR CONSTANT ELASTICITY MODELS The Cobb-Douglas Production Function: B3 B2 Q i B1 L i K i can be transformed into a linear model by taking natural logs of both sides: ln Q i ln B1 B 2 ln Li B 3 ln K i The slope coefficients can be interpreted as elasticities. If (B2 + B3) = 1, we have constant returns to scale. If (B2 + B3) > 1, we have increasing returns to scale. If (B2 + B3) < 1, we have decreasing returns to scale. Damodar Gujarati Econometrics by Example LOG-LIN OR GROWTH MODELS The rate of growth of real GDP: R G D Pt R G D P1960 (1 r ) t can be transformed into a linear model by taking natural logs of both sides: ln RG D Pt ln RG D P1960 t ln(1 r ) Letting B1 = ln RGDP1960 and B2 = ln (l+r), this can be rewritten as: ln RGDPt = B1 +B2 t B2 is considered a semi-elasticity or an instantaneous growth rate. The compound growth rate (r) is equal to (eB2 – 1). Damodar Gujarati Econometrics by Example LIN-LOG MODELS Lin-log models follow this general form: Yi B1 B 2 ln X i u i Note that B2 is the absolute change in Y responding to a percentage (or relative) change in X If X increases by 100%, predicted Y increases by B2 units Used in Engel expenditure functions: “The total expenditure that is devoted to food tends to increase in arithmetic progression as total expenditure increases in geometric proportion.” Damodar Gujarati Econometrics by Example RECIPROCAL MODELS Lin-log models follow this general form: Yi B1 B 2 ( 1 Xi ) ui Note that: 1 As X increases indefinitely, the term B 2 ( ) approaches zero and Y approaches Xi the limiting or asymptotic value B1. The slope is: dY dX B2 ( 1 X 2 ) Therefore, if B2 is positive, the slope is negative throughout, and if B2 is negative, the slope is positive throughout. Damodar Gujarati Econometrics by Example POLYNOMIAL REGRESSION MODELS The following regression predicting GDP is an example of a quadratic function, or more generally, a second-degree polynomial in the variable time: R G D Pt A1 A2 tim e A3 tim e u t 2 The slope is nonlinear and equal to: dR G D P tim e Damodar Gujarati Econometrics by Example A2 2 A3 tim e SUMMARY OF FUNCTIONAL FORMS MODEL FORM SLOPE ( dY ) dX B2 B2 ( Y =B1 + B2 X Log-linear lnY =B1 + ln X B2 ( Log-lin lnY =B1 + B2 X B 2 (Y ) Lin-log Y B1 B 2 ln X Y B1 B 2 ( Damodar Gujarati Econometrics by Example 1 X ) dY dX Linear Reciprocal ELASTICITY B2 ( B2 ( Y ) X 1 ) X 1 X ) 2 X . Y X ) Y B2 B2 ( X ) B2 ( B2 ( 1 ) Y 1 XY ) COMPARING ON BASIS OF R2 We cannot directly compare two models that have different dependent variables. We can transform the models as follows and compare RSS: Step 1: Compute the geometric mean (GM) of the dependent variable, call it Y*. Step 2: Divide Yi by Y* to obtain: Yi Y~ Y * i Step 3: Estimate the equation with lnYi as the dependent variable using Y~i in lieu of Yi as the dependent variable (i.e., use ln Y~ as i the dependent variable). Step 4: Estimate the equation with Yi as the dependent variable using Y~i as the dependent variable instead of Yi. Damodar Gujarati Econometrics by Example STANDARDIZED VARIABLES We can avoid the problem of having variables measured in different units by expressing them in standardized form: Yi * Yi Y SY _ ; X * i Xi X SX where_ SY and SX are the sample standard deviations _ and Y and X are the sample means of Y and X, respectively The mean value of a standardized variable is always zero and its standard deviation value is always 1. Damodar Gujarati Econometrics by Example MEASURES OF GOODNESS OF FIT R2: Measures the proportion of the variation in the regressand explained by the regressors. 2 Adjusted R2: Denoted as R , it takes degrees of freedom into account: _ R 1 (1 R ) 2 2 n 1 nk Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC): Adds harsher penalty for adding more variables to the model, defined as: ln A IC 2k n ln( R SS ) n The model with the lowest AIC is usually chosen. Schwarz’s Information Criterion (SIC): Alternative to the AIC criterion, expressed as: k R SS ln SIC ln n ln( n ) n The penalty factor here is harsher than that of AIC. Damodar Gujarati Econometrics by Example