Section 3.6 Recall that (1/2) = y–1/2 e–y dy = (Multivariable Calculus is required to prove this!) 0 Perform the following change of variables in the integral: w = 2y y = w2 / 2 0<w< 0 < y < 2 e – w2 / 2 dy = w dw dw = 0 – w2 / 2 2 e ————— dw = 1 From this, we see that 0 – w2 / 2 2 e ————— dw = 2 – – w2 / 2 e ——— 2 dw = 1 – Let – < a < and 0 < b < , and perform the following change of variables in the integral: x = a + bw w= dw = <x< <w< We shall come back to this derivation later. A random variable having this p.d.f. is said to have a normal distribution with mean and variance 2, that is, a N(,2) distribution. Right now skip to the following: A random variable Z having a N(0,1) distribution, called a standard normal distribution, has p.d.f. – z2 / 2 e f(z) = ——— 2 for – < z < We let (z) = P(Z z), the distribution function of Z. Since f(z) is a symmetric function, it is easy to see that (– z) = 1 – (z). Tables Va and Vb in Appendix B of the text display a graph of f(z) and values of (z) and (– z). Important Theorems in the Text: If X is N(,2), then Z = (X – ) / is N(0,1). Theorem 3.6-1 If X is N(,2), then V = [(X – ) / ]2 is 2(1). Theorem 3.6-2 We shall discuss these theorems later. Right now go to Class Exercise #1: 1. The random variable Z is N(0, 1). Find each of the following: P(Z < 1.25) = (1.25) = 0.8944 P(Z > 0.75) = 1 – (0.75) = 0.2266 P(Z < – 1.25) = (– 1.25) = 1 – (1.25) = 0.1056 P(Z > – 0.75) = 1 – (– 0.75) = 1 – (1 – (0.75)) = (0.75) = 0.7734 P(– 1 < Z < 2) = (2) – (– 1) = (2) – (1 – (1)) = 0.8185 P(– 2 < Z < – 1) = (– 1) – (– 2) = (1 – (1)) – (1 – (2)) = 0.1359 P(Z < 6) = (6) = practically 1 a constant c such that P(Z < c) = 0.591 P(Z < c) = 0.591 (c) = 0.591 a constant c such that P(Z < c) = 0.123 P(Z < c) = 0.123 (c) = 0.123 – c = 1.16 (– c) = 0.877 c = 0.23 1 – (– c) = 0.123 c = – 1.16 a constant c such that P(Z > c) = 0.25 P(Z > c) = 0.25 1 – (c) = 0.25 c 0.67 a constant c such that P(Z > c) = 0.90 P(Z > c) = 0.90 1 – (c) = 0.90 (– c) = 0.90 – c = 1.28 c = – 1.28 1.-continued z0.10 P(Z > z) = 1 – (z) = z0.10 = 1.282 z0.90 P(Z > z) = 1 – (z) = (–z) = 1 – (–z) = 1 – P(Z > –z) = 1 – z1– = –z z0.90 = – z0.10 = – 1.282 a constant c such that P(|Z| < c) = 0.99 P(– c < Z < c) = 0.99 P(Z < c) – P(Z < – c) = 0.99 (c) – (– c) = 0.99 (c) – (1 – (c)) = 0.99 (c) = 0.995 c = z0.005 = 2.576 – w2 / 2 2 e ————— dw = 2 – w2 / 2 e ——— 2 – dw = 1 – Let – < a < and 0 < b < , and perform the following change of variables in the integral: w = (x – a) / b x = a + bw – < x < – <w< (x – a)2 – ——— 2b2 e ———— dx b2 – dw = (1/b) dx = 1 The function of x being integrated can be the p.d.f. for a random variable X which has all real numbers as its space. The moment generating function of X is M(t) = E(etX) = (x – a)2 – ——— 2b2 etx e ———— dx b2 e ———— b2 = – (x – a)2 – 2b2tx – —————— 2b2 dx = – (x – a)2 – 2b2tx – —————— 2b2 exp{ } —————————— b2 Let us consider the exponent dx (x – a)2 – 2b2tx – —————— . 2b2 – (x – a)2 – 2b2tx – —————— = 2b2 x2 – 2ax + a2 – 2b2tx – ————————— = 2b2 x2 – 2(a + b2t)x + (a + b2t)2 – 2ab2t – b4t2 – ————————————————— 2b2 = [x – (a + b2t)]2 – 2ab2t – b4t2 – ———————————— . Therefore, M(t) = 2b2 (x – a)2 – 2b2tx exp{ – —————— } 2b2 —————————— dx = b2 – [x – (a+b2t)]2 2 2 b2t2 bt exp{ – —————— } at + —— 2b2 exp{at + ——} —————————— dx = e 2 2 b2 – M(t) = e b2t2 at + —— 2 M (t) = (a + b2t) e M (t) = (a + b2t)2 e for – < t < b2t2 at + —— 2 b2t2 at + —— 2 + b2 e b2t2 at + —— 2 E(X) = M (0) = E(X2) = M (0) = a a2 + b2 Var(X) = a2 + b2 – a2 = b2 Since X has mean = a and variance 2 = b2 , we can write the p.d.f of X as (x – )2 – ——— 22 e f(x) = ———— for – < x < 2 A random variable having this p.d.f. is said to have a normal distribution with mean and variance 2, that is, a N(,2) distribution. A random variable Z having a N(0,1) distribution, called a standard normal distribution, has p.d.f. – z2 / 2 e f(z) = ——— 2 for – < z < We let (z) = P(Z z), the distribution function of Z. Since f(z) is a symmetric function, it is easy to see that (– z) = 1 – (z). Tables Va and Vb in Appendix B of the text display a graph of f(z) and values of (z) and (– z). Important Theorems in the Text: If X is N(,2), then Z = (X – ) / is N(0,1). Theorem 3.6-1 If X is N(,2), then V = [(X – ) / ]2 is 2(1). Theorem 3.6-2 2. The random variable X is N(10, 9). Use Theorem 3.6-1 to find each of the following: 6 – 10 X – 10 12 – 10 P(6 < X < 12) = P( ——— < ——— < ———— ) = 3 3 3 P(– 1.33 < Z < 0.67) = (0.67) – (– 1.33) = (0.67) – (1 – (1.33)) = 0.7486 – (1 – 0.9082) = 0.6568 X – 10 25 – 10 P(X > 25) = P( ——— > ———— ) = P(Z > 5) = 3 3 1 – (5) = practically 0 2.-continued a constant c such that P(|X – 10| < c) = 0.95 P(|X – 10| < c) = 0.95 P(|Z| < c/3) = 0.95 X – 10 c P( ——— < — ) = 0.95 3 3 (c/3) – (– c/3) = 0.95 (c/3) – (1 – (c/3)) = 0.95 c/3 = z0.025 = 1.960 c = 5.880 (c/3) = 0.975 3. The random variable X is N(–7, 100). Find each of the following: X+7 0+7 P(X > 0) = P( ——— > —— ) = P(Z > 0.7) = 1 – (0.7) = 10 10 0.2420 a constant c such that P(X > c) = 0.98 X + 7 c +7 P( —— > —— ) = 0.98 P(X > c) = 0.98 10 10 P(Z > (c+7) / 10) = 0.98 ((c+7) /10) = 0.02 c = – 27.54 1 – ((c+7) /10) = 0.98 (c+7) /10 = z0.98 = – z0.02 = – 2.054 3.-continued X2 + 14X + 49 the distribution for the random variable Q = —————— 100 X2 + 14X + 49 From Theorem 3.6-2, we know that Q = —————— = 100 2 X+7 —— must have a 2(1) distribution. 10