4 Ri ,t 0 1i ,k D k 1 Day kt 26 2i ,k D k 1 Int kt 12 3i ,k Ri ,t k i ,t k 1 NS i ,t NS i ,t i ,t 1 i i ,1 ( i ,t 0) i , 2 ( i ,t 0) i X i ,t i ,t ui ,t 1 NTi ,t NTi ,t Estimation Results : i ,1 0 and i , 2 0 DPIN BASE i , j NBi , j NTi , j ( i , j 0) NS i , j NTi , j ( i , j 0) 25 20 Percent 15 10 5 0 0.27 0.29 0.31 0.33 0.35 0.37 0.39 0.41 0.43 0.45 0.47 0.49 0.51 0.53 0.55 0.57 0.59 0.61 0.63 0.65 0.67 0.69 0.71 0.73 DPIN The DPIN_BASE measure yields adequate cross-sectional variation across stocks DPIN DISP i , j NBi , j NS i , j ( i , j 0) ( i , j 0) ( Ri , j 10; j 1 ) 0 NTi , j NTi , j Ri , j 10; j 1 0 30 25 Percent 20 15 10 5 0 0.075 0.090 0.105 0.120 0.135 0.150 0.165 0.180 0.195 0.210 0.225 0.240 0.255 0.270 0.285 0.300 0.315 0.330 0.345 0.360 0.375 0.390 0.405 DPIN_DISP DPIN_DISP distribution mimics that of DPIN_BASE, but with slightly less than half the mean and median DPIN SIZE i , j LTi , j NBi , j NS i , j ( i , j 0) ( i , j 0) ( LTi , j ) NTi , j NTi , j 30 25 Percent 20 15 10 5 0 0.135 0.150 0.165 0.180 0.195 0.210 0.225 0.240 0.255 0.270 0.285 0.300 0.315 0.330 0.345 0.360 0.375 0.390 0.405 0.420 0.435 0.450 0.465 0.480 0.495 DPIN_SIZE_Med DPIN_SIZE distribution mimics that of PIN (Easley et al. 2002) with similar mean, median, left skew, and long right tail Measure Mean Median STD Min Max DPINBASE 0.458 0.455 0.036 0.274 0.733 DPINDISP 0.215 0.215 0.029 0.073 0.401 DPINSIZE 0.231 0.227 0.027 0.133 0.500 The means and medians of the refined DPINs are quite close to the PIN measure of Easley et al. (2002): 0.191 and 0.185 1 DPIN_BASE DPIN_DISP 0.8 DPIN_SIZE DPIN 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Year Yearly C-S average DPINs mimic that of PIN (Easley et al. 2002) with little year-to-year variation or with much stability over time Measure High/Low No. Firms DPINBASE High Low 1,899 2,306 819,299 5,448,227 7.051 0.760 103,740 591,708 DPINDISP High Low 2,046 2,159 1,265,812 5,340,255 6.094 1.241 162,587 569,050 DPINSIZE High Low 1,721 2,484 534,357 5,313,942 7.715 0.751 67,367 581,898 Size Illiquidity Volume Stocks with higher DPIN are more opaque as they are associated with much smaller firm size, lower volume, and higher illiquidity Measure Mean Median STD 25th % 75th % DPINBASE 0.447 0.431 0.297 0.250 0.600 DPINDISP 0.212 0.000 0.301 0.000 0.417 DPINSIZE 0.222 0.000 0.289 0.000 0.429 The STDs are much higher and the medians for the two refined DPINs are zero, hence no information events for many intervals 2.1 DPIN_BASE 1.9 DPIN_DISP 1.7 DPIN_SIZE x Average 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 9:45 10:15 10:45 11:15 11:45 12:15 12:45 13:15 13:45 14:15 14:45 15:15 15:45 Time The U-shaped intraday pattern is consistent with the clustering of uninformed trading and the corresponding strategic informed trading (Kyle 1985, Admati and Pfleiderer 1988) DPIN_SMALL 1.6 1.4 x Average 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 9:45 10:15 10:45 11:15 11:45 12:15 12:45 13:15 13:45 14:15 14:45 15:15 15:45 Time Stealth trading: informed traders break up large orders into a series of small trades to hide their information (Barclay and Warner 1993, Chakravarty 2001, Alexander and Peterson 2007) Ri , j i , 0 i ,1 Rm , j i , j 2 i ,t R FSRVi ,t log[(1 R ) / R ] 2 i ,t 2 i ,t FSRVi ,t 1,t DPIN i ,t 2,t DPIN i ,t 1 t ' X i ,t i ,t FSRVi ,t 1,t DPIN i ,t 2,t DPIN i ,t 1 t ' Z i ,t i ,t FSRV DPINBASE DPINBASE, t-1 FSRV FSRV 0.558*** (28.55) 0.467*** (24.29) 0.270*** (16.91) 0.093*** (7.64) DPINDISP DPINDISP,t-1 DPINSIZE DPINSIZE,t-1 Wald 1411.5*** 343.24*** 0.640*** (21.63) 0.569*** (21.90) 947.39*** DPIN and its lag are jointly significant at the 1% level Informed trading causes firm-specific return variation – Roll √ ∆FSRV ∆DPINBASE ∆DPINBASE, t-1 ∆FSRV ∆FSRV 0.150*** (8.31) 0.054*** (2.99) ∆DPINDISP 0.194*** (11.07) 0.033* (1.77) ∆DPINDISP,t-1 ∆DPINSIZE ∆DPINSIZE,t-1 Wald 77.87*** 125.79*** 0.145*** (5.32) 0.072*** (2.72) 34.61*** ∆DPIN and its lag are jointly significant at the 1% level Informed trading causes firm-specific return variation – Roll √