2011 Supermarket Sales--2012 USPB Annual Meeting

Supermarket

Sales 2011

Prepared February 2012 by

The Nielsen Perishables Group

Supermarket Sales

 Nielsen Scantrack ®

 Data includes retail census UPC sales data for grocery store chains within the total U.S. with more than $2 million annual ACV* sales per store

 Not included in the data set: Walmart, club stores, franchise stores, small independent chains and alternative format retailers such as

Whole Foods and Trader Joe’s

 Nielsen data is reported by week, by store, by item

 Perishables Group powered by Nielsen

 Data includes retail census UPC and non-UPC (bulk) sales data for grocery store chains within the total U.S. with more than $2 million annual ACV* sales per store

 Not included in the data set: Walmart, club stores, small independent chains and alternative format retailers such as Whole

Foods and Trader Joe’s

 Data is reported by week, by store, by item

*All Commodity Volume

Food Service Shipments

 NPD POTATOTRAC ®

 Data includes all frozen potato shipments from the five major frozen potato processors (Cavendish, Conagra

(Lamb-Weston), McCain U.S., McCain Canada, and

Simplot) to all U.S. foodservice customers.

 Accounts for an estimated 93% of foodservice potato volume

 Data is collected at the SKU level

Q4 2011 Fresh UPC:

Volume (lbs) Down 6.2%, Prices Up 14.3%

FRESH

SUPERMARKET UPC SALES Q4 2011

% Chg % Chg Scanner Price/Pound

Pounds Dollars Current Change YAGO % Chg

Q4 2011 -6.2% 7.2% $ 0.51

$ 0.06

$ 0.44

14.3%

52 WK End Q4 2011 -7.5% 10.0% $ 0.54

$ 0.09

$ 0.45

18.9%

Derived from Nielsen Scantrack

® and Perishables Group FreshFacts

®

2000-2011 Supermarket Sales

– Supermarkets $2MM And Over

Q4 2011 Chips:

Volume Down 5.6%, Prices Up 7.1%

CHIPS




Q4 2011 -5.6% 1.1% $ 4.55

$ 0.30

$ 4.25

7.1%

52 WK End Q4 2011 -2.4% 1.3% $ 4.40

$ 0.16

$ 4.23

3.8%



®



Q4 2011 Dehydrated:

Volume Down 5.6%, Prices Down 4.5%

DEHY




Q4 2011 -5.6%

52 WK End Q4 2011 -2.6%

-1.3%

-0.7%

$ 3.40

$ 3.43

$ 0.15

$ 0.07

$ 3.25

$ 3.36

4.5%

2.0%



®



Q4 2011 Frozen:

Volume Down 4.9%, Prices Down 4.3%

FROZEN


Q4 2011

52 WK End Q4 2011



-4.9%

-1.2%

-0.7%

1.6%

$ 1.55

$ 1.52

$ 0.06

$ 0.04

$ 1.48

$ 1.48

4.3%

2.8%



®



Q4 2011 Refrigerated:

Volume Up 0.7%, Prices Up 4.0%

REFRIG



Q4 2011


0.7% 4.8% $ 2.08

$ 0.08

$ 2.00

4.0%

52 WK End Q4 2011 1.4% 7.2% $ 2.13

$ 0.11

$ 2.01

5.7%



®



2011 Supermarket Sales Quarter by Quarter

15.0%

Pound Volume Changes Over YAGO

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

-5.0%

Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011

-10.0%

-15.0%

FRESH UPC

DEHY

FROZEN



®



2011 Supermarket Sales Quarter by Quarter

Pound Volume Changes Over YAGO

12.0%

8.0%

4.0%

0.0%

-4.0%

Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011

-8.0%

-12.0%

CHIP

REFRIG



®



U.S. Supermarket Fresh Volume Sales

2010 2011

-7.6%

3,336.7

3,083.8

4,000.6

-6.7%

3,731.2

-2.5%

663.9

647.4

Loose (000,000) Bagged (000,000) Total Pounds (000,000)



®



U.S. Supermarket Fresh Volume Sales*

Index: 100 103 103 106 103 99 94 94 89 92 89 85

Pounds (000,000) Price/Pound

5,000.0

4,500.0

4,000.0

3,500.0

3,000.0

2,500.0

2,000.0

1,500.0

1,000.0

500.0

0.0

4,345.4

4,494.1

4,488.8

4,594.5

4,469.8

4,298.0

4,091.1

4,082.5

3,864.2

4,012.5

3,878.6

$0.65

3,731.2

$0.35

$0.40

$0.50

$0.42

$0.39

$0.43

$0.51

$0.50

0.59

$0.48

$0.51

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 09 '10 11

*

Bagged And Loose Combined



®



2011 U.S. Supermarket Fresh Volume Sales

Bagged vs. Loose by Region

Bag Loose

8.2%

15.6%

13.2%

16.5%

11.4%

17.6% 18.7%

27.6%

33.2%

17.4%

84.4%

86.8%

83.5%

88.6%

72.4%

91.8%

82.4% 81.3%

66.8%

82.6%

New

England

Mid

Atlantic

South

Atlantic

East South West South East North West North

Central Central Central Central

Mountain Pacific Total



®



2011 U.S. Supermarket Fresh Volume Sales*

Per Capita by Region

14.77

14.00

13.44

13.60

13.00

12.78

11.22

10.31

10.95

11.97

New

England

Mid

Atantic

South

Atlantic

East Sout

Central

West

South

Central

East North

Central

West

North

Central

Mountain Pacific Total U.S.

*

Bagged And Loose Combined



®



Store Brands’ Share of Total Bagged Fresh Volume in Supermarkets

26.1%

29.0%

29.7%

31.4%

33.1%

34.0%

37.5%

40.6%

43.1%

46.8%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011



®



U.S. Supermarket Bagged Fresh Volume Sales and

Price/Pound - 12 Month Moving Totals

4,000.0

3,900.0

3,800.0

3,700.0

3,600.0

3,500.0

3,400.0

3,300.0

3,200.0

3,100.0

3,000.0

100

104

102

108

104

100

93

Pounds (000,000)

Price/Pound

93

89

95

92

85

Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4

0.56

0.54

0.52

0.50

0.48

0.46

0.44

0.42

0.40

0.38

0.36

0.34

0.32

0.30

0.28

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011



®



2011 U.S. Supermarket Fresh Bagged

Volume Sales by Bag Size

$0.54

= Overall Price/Pound

Under 4 lbs,

5.7%

4-6.5 lbs, 47.2%

$ 1.47

$0.21

$0.61

$0.36

8-15 lbs, 45.6%

16-50 lbs, 1.6%



®



U.S. Supermarket Fresh Bagged Volume Sales by Bag Size

3.1%

Under 4 lbs 4-6.5 lbs 8-15 lbs 16-50 lbs

3.7% 2.1% 2.8% 3.0% 2.5% 2.2% 2.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.8% 1.6%

49.6% 48.8%

43.9%

49.2% 50.1% 48.4% 46.1% 46.4%

44.8% 49.2% 48.7% 45.6%

45.6% 45.8%

50.5%

45.7% 44.1% 46.1%

48.0% 47.5% 49.0% 45.2% 44.9% 47.2%

1.7% 1.7% 3.5% 2.3% 2.5% 2.9% 3.7% 3.9% 4.5% 4.1% 4.6%

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

5.7%

11



®



2011 U.S. Supermarket Fresh Bagged

Volume Sales by Type

$0.54

= Overall Price/Pound

Russet, 72.8%

$0.46

$0.51

All Others, 1.8%

$0.86

Yellow, 4.3%

White,

8.9%

Red, 12.2%

$0.52

$0.84



®



U.S. Supermarket Fresh Bagged Volume Sales by Type

Russet Red White Yellow All Others

1.1% 1.2%

1.5%

0.8% 0.9% 1.5%

14.8% 14.6% 12.6%

1.7%

3.6%

1.5%

3.5%

1.6%

3.7%

1.8%

4.0%

1.7%

4.2%

1.9%

4.3%

11.6% 12.2% 11.6% 10.7% 11.1% 11.0%

1.6%

3.9%

9.3%

11.2% 11.3% 11.7% 11.6% 12.0% 11.9% 12.6% 13.1% 13.3%

12.4%

1.8% 1.8%

3.9%

9.1%

4.3%

8.9%

11.9% 12.2%

72.1% 72.0% 72.7% 71.5% 70.8% 71.2% 70.9% 69.9% 69.5%

72.8% 73.4% 72.8%

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 11



®



U.S. Supermarket Chip Volume Sales

780.0

740.0

700.0

660.0

620.0

580.0

540.0

500.0

755.6

Pounds (000,000) Cost/Pound

737.2

$4.40

-2.4%

$4.60

$4.40

$4.23

$4.20

$4.00

2010 2011



®



U.S. Supermarket Chip Volume Sales

Index: 100 103 101 99 100 99 96 93 88 88 92 90

700.0

660.0

620.0

580.0

540.0

500.0

860.0

820.0

780.0

740.0

820.5

846.2

$2.90

$4.28

827.6

$3.01

816.3

818.0

$3.02

$3.08

808.7

$3.06

786.9

$3.20 $3.31

760.9

$3.40

725.8

$3.86

718.5

$4.23

755.6

$4.40

737.2

Pounds (000,000) Price/Pound

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11



®



U.S. Supermarket Chip Volume Sales and

Price/Pound – 12 Month Moving Total

880.0

860.0

840.0

820.0

800.0

780.0

760.0

740.0

720.0

100

103

101

99

100

99

96

93

Pounds (000,000)

Price/Pound

88 88

92

90

700.0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

4.50

4.40

4.30

4.20

4.10

4.00

3.90

3.80

3.70

3.60

3.50

3.40

3.30

3.20

3.10

3.00

2.90

2.80



®



Percent Change in U.S. Supermarket Chip

Volume Sales by Subregion

(2011 vs. 2010)

-7.9%

-4.3%

-4.9%

-2.0%

-0.4%

New England

Mid Atlantic

-1.5%

-1.6%

South Atlantic

E. S. Central

W. S Central

E. N. Central

W. N. Central

Mountain

Pacific

0.3%

0.9%

-2.3% Total U.S.



®



Change in U.S. Supermarket Chip Price/Pound by Nielsen Subregion

(2011 vs. 2010)

New England

Mid Atlantic

South Atlantic

E. S. Central

W. S Central

E. N. Central

W. N. Central

Mountain

Pacific

2.6%

2.3%

3.2%

3.2%

3.8%

4.3%

4.8%

4.9%

5.6%

Total U.S.

3.9%



®



Change in U.S. Supermarket Chip

Volume Sales/Capita by Sub-region

(2011 vs. 2010)

New England

Mid-Atlantic

South Atlantic

E. S. Central

W. S. Central

E. N. Central -0.13

W. N. Central

Mountain

Pacific

-0.09

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

U.S. -0.02



®



U.S. Supermarket Dehydrated Volume Sales

71.6

2010

2011

70.5

-1.5%

Mashed

95.3

92.7

-2.8%

23.7 22.1

-6.7%

Specialty Total Pounds (000,000)



®



U.S. Supermarket Dehydrated Volume Sales*

Index: 100 99 99 96 90 88 87 85 88 86 84 82

120.0

110.0

100.0

90.0

80.0

70.0

60.0

50.0

40.0

113.5

112.6

112.8


108.6

$2.92

102.3

$2.97

100.4

98.9

96.2

100.0

$3.31

98.0

95.3

$3.37 $3.37

92.7

$3.25

$3.12

$3.43

$2.99

$2.95

$2.77

$2.62

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04

*

Mashed And Specialty Combined

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 11



®



U.S. Supermarket Dehydrated Volume Sales and

Price/Pound - 12 Month Moving Totals

120.0

110.0

100

99

100

99

99

100.0

Pounds (000,000)

Price/Pound

88

87

85

88

86

84

82

90.0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

$2.90

$2.80

$2.70

$2.60

$2.50

$3.50

$3.40

$3.30

$3.20

$3.10

$3.00



®



U.S. Supermarket Dehydrated Sales

Mashed vs. Specialty

Specialty Mashed

27.6% 26.8% 27.1% 28.5% 27.6% 26.5% 26.3% 25.8% 25.3% 24.7% 25.0% 23.9%

72.4% 73.2% 72.9% 71.5% 72.4% 73.5% 73.7% 74.2% 74.7% 75.3% 75.0% 76.1%

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 11

000,000 Volumes:113.5 112.6 112.8 108.6 102.3 100.4 98.9 96.2 100.1 97.9 95.5 92.7



®



U.S. Supermarket Frozen Potato Sales

800.0

700.0

600.0

500.0

400.0

300.0

200.0

100.0

0.0

-1.2%


737.2

1.48

728.7

1.52

1.60

1.55

1.50

1.45

1.40

1.35

1.30

1.25

1.20

1.15

1.10

2010 2011



®



U.S. Supermarket Frozen Potato Sales

Index: 100 101 100 96 95 94 91 88 85 87 86 85

900.0

855.6

800.0

700.0

600.0

500.0

400.0

300.0

200.0

100.0

0.0

'00

865.2

$1.12 $1.14

'01

853.9

'02

820.5

811.7

Pounds (000,000)

'03 '04

807.8

Cost/Pound

$1.17 $1.17 $1.17 $1.19

'05

778.0

'06

749.2

$1.25

'07

$1.32

728.4

743.5

737.2

$1.49

$1.48

$1.45

728.7

$1.52

'08 '09 '10 11



®



U.S. Supermarket Frozen Potato Volume

Sales and Price/Pound - 12 Month Moving Totals

101

880.0

860.0

100

100

840.0

820.0

96

94

800.0

780.0

95 92

760.0

740.0

Pounds (000,000)

Price/Pound

88

87

720.0

700.0

85

86


1.58

1.54

1.50

1.46

1.42

1.38

1.34

1.30

1.26

1.22

1.18

1.14

1.10

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011



®



140.0

120.0

100.0

80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0

-

U.S. Supermarket Refrigerated Potato Volume Sales

2010

2011

37.1

+1.7%

37.7

All Other

+1.3%

92.0 93.1

+1.4%

129.1 130.9

Mashed Pounds

(000,000)

Total Pounds (000,000)



®



U.S. Supermarket Refrigerated Potato Volume Sales

Index: 100 127 141 159 165 259 327 329 332 326 337 342

150.0

130.0

110.0

90.0

70.0

50.0

38.3

Pounds (000,000)

48.6

54.0

61.1

Cost/Pound

63.4

99.5

$1.82

125.3

126.3

$2.03

128.6

124.7

129.0

$2.20

130.9

$2.13

$2.10

$2.04

$2.01 $2.01

$2.00

$1.90

$1.91

$1.80

$1.70

30.0

$1.65 $1.60

10.0

$1.56

$1.55

$1.59

$1.60

$1.50

-10.0

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 11 $1.40



®



U.S. Supermarket Refrigerated Potato Volume

Sales and Price/Pound - 12 Month Moving Totals

60.0

100

40.0

Pounds (000,000)

Price/Pound 260

337 342

120.0

100.0

80.0

20.0

127

141

159

165

327

330

336 323

0.0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

2.20

2.15

2.10

2.05

2.00

1.95

1.90

1.85

1.80

1.75

1.70

1.65

1.60

1.55

1.50



®



U.S. Food Service Frozen Potato Volume Sales

9,000,000,000

8,800,000,000

8,600,000,000

8,400,000,000

8,200,000,000

8,000,000,000

7,800,000,000

7,600,000,000

7,400,000,000

7,200,000,000

7,000,000,000

8,175.2

'04

8,577.0

'05

8,862.4

Switched to tracking domestic sales only

'06

8,048.6

'07

7,905.4

'08

-0.7%

7,704.7

7,793.7

7,742.2

09 '10 '11

2004-2011 Food Service Shipments

Derived from the NPD Group’s POTATOTRAC ®

U.S. Food Service Frozen Potato Volume Sales By Form

STRAIGHT CUT

WEDGE CUTS

ALL OTHER

All Other is comprised of 15 types with shares less than 3.5%.

Includes spiral fries, waffles, formed oval patties and more

10%

0%

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

13.3%

3.8%

4.4%

6.8%

71.7%

'04

13.7%

3.8%

4.3%

6.4%

71.7%

'05

70.8%

'06

15.4%

4.0%

3.8%

7.6%

15.4%

4.3%

3.9%

8.0%

15.2%

4.3%

3.9%

7.9%

69.9% 69.6% 69.3%

Switched to tracking domestic sales only

68.4%

'07

CRINKLE CUT

FORMED ROUNDS (TOTS/PUFFS/ETC)

14.4%

3.8%

4.4%

6.7%

15.2%

3.9%

3.9%

7.1%

15.3%

4.0%

3.8%

7.4%

'08 09 '10

68.7%

'11

2004-2011 Food Service Shipments

Derived from the NPD Group’s POTATOTRAC ®

2011 Supermarket Sales--2012 USPB Annual Meeting

Supermarket

Sales 2011

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