Global Thermal Coal Imports

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ANZ Commodity Strategy
AIBC Coal Update
June 2010
Mark Pervan
Head of Commodities Research
MACRO
2
China rebounded much quicker from the GFC
Purchasing Managers Indices
points
62
expanding
58
54
50
46
42
38
34
30
26
Jan-06
contracting
US
EU
China
Japan
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Source: Bloomberg
3
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
This has created a big investment premium in prices
LME Copper Price & Days of Supply Ratio’s
US$/lb
C opper
4.50
1990/2003
2004/2007
2008/2009
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0
Source: Bloomberg
5
10
days of supply
4
15
20
25
However, funds may be calling it right
LME Copper Stockpiles & Days of Supply
days
'000t
25
1,200
1,000
20
800
15
600
10
9
9 400
5
200
0
0
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
days of supply
Source: Bloomberg
04
06
08
Total LME Supply (RHS)
5
10
Funds have taken profits
Kt
Non-Commercial Copper Positions
800
600
400
200
0
(200)
(400)
(600)
Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10
Long
Source: Bloomberg
Short
Net (Long-Short)
6
Oil positioned heavily in both directions
Non-Commercial Oil Positions
Mbbls
300
200
100
0
(100)
(200)
(300)
Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10
Long
Source: Bloomberg
Short
Net (Long-Short)
7
Coal prices look cheap from a historical high basis
Discount to Historical High Price Level
Nickel
(60.9)
$24.52/lb - May 2007
Zinc
(59.9)
$2.09/lb - Nov 2006
Lead
Oil
$1.81/lb - Oct 2007
(57.0)
$145.30/bbl - Jul 2008
(53.2)
Coal
(48.6)
$195/t - Jul 2008
US Dollar
(47.8)
120.9 - Jul 2001
Aluminium
Platinum
Tin
Dow Jones
(40.1)
$148.38/lb - Jul 2008
$2,250/oz - Mar 2008
(32.8)
$11.49/lb - May 2008
(31.6)
14,164 - Oct 2007
(28.9)
Iron ore
(26.4)
$210/t - Mar 2008
Copper
(26.0)
$4.04/lb - Jul 2008
Silver
(15.2)
$20.81/oz - Mar 2008
Gold
(3.1)
(80) (70) (60) (50) (40) (30) (20) (10)
Source: Bloomberg
8
$1,220/oz - Mar 2008
0
10
20
30
40
50
Iron ore & Spot Thermal coal will be top commodities in 2010
2010 Average Percentage Returns
YoY % change
90
75
75
60
39
45
38
35
30
31
27
25
25
22
20
19
15
15
13
9
0
(15)
(10)
Source: ANZ
9
Uranium
Thermal Coal
Lead
Met Coal
Gold
Silver
Zinc
Alumina
Aluminium
Oil
Platinum
Copper
Nickel
Spot Thermal
Iron ore
(30)
India still has huge potential to grow commodity demand
Commodity Consumption Per Capita – Intensity Charts
Electricity
US
14.0
12.0
Taiwan
10.0
EU
Sth Korea
Russia
8.0
Japan
6.0
4.0 India
China
2.0
Brazil
0.0
0
10,000
20,000
Thermal Coal
2.0
Thermal Coal usage (tonne/capita)
Electricity usage (Kw/h/capita)
16.0
30,000
40,000
50,000
Sth Korea
China
1.2
Taiwan
EU
Japan
0.8
India
Russia
0.4
Brazil
0.0
0
10,000
Real GDP per capita (US$)
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Real GDP per capita (US$)
Natural Gas
2.5
US
1.6
Steel
1,200
US
2.0
1.5
Steel usage (kg/capita)
Natural Gas usage (kcm/capita)
Sth Korea
1,000
EU
Russia
1.0
Sth Korea
Japan
0.5 India
China
Taiwan
800
Taiwan
Japan
600
China
400
200
EU
India
US
Brazil
Brazil
0.0
Russia
0
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
0
Real GDP per capita (US$)
Source: ANZ
10,000
20,000
30,000
Real GDP per capita (US$)
10
40,000
50,000
THERMAL
COAL
11
Leading demand indicators have peaked?
Thermal Coal Prices & World Leading Index
YoY % change
YoY % change
12
200
10
China snow storms and
speculative rally in oil
prices
Rapid rise in China
coal exports
8
150
6
100
4
2
50
0
(2)
0
(4)
(6)
(50)
(8)
(10)
(100)
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
World Leading Index
06
07
08
09
10
Newcastle Thermal Coal Price (RHS)
Note: World (OECD+BRICs) Leading Index components differ by country and includes business and consumer confidence, dwelling
starts, factory orders, cargo handled at port, metal production, interest rates spreads and hours worked (amongst others)
Source: Bloomberg
12
China to become a rising net thermal coal importer
China Thermal Coal Imports & Exports
m tonnes
180
150
Thermal Coal Imports
120
Thermal Coal Exports
Forecast
140
Net Imports
90
57
60
30
0
(30)
(60)
(90)
00
01
02
03
Source: AME, Wood Mackenzie, ANZ
04
05
06
07
13
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
India imports to rise 140% by 2015 – 250% on our upper case
India Thermal Coal Imports
YoY change
m tonnes
146
150
Upper Case (power growth 15%pa)
40%
Forecast
35%
Base case (power growth 8%pa)
125
% change - base case (RHS)
% change - upper case (RHS)
100
30%
100
104 25%
75
58
50
20%
15%
42
10%
25
5%
0
0%
00
01
02
03
Source: AME, BP Statistics, ANZ
04
05
06
07
08
09
14
10
11
12
13
14
15
India jumps to number 4 – and number 2 on the upper case
Thermal Coal Import Demand (million tonnes)
23
25
2009
2015
Russia
138
108
107
122
161
Japan
Europe
2009
2015
146
100
2009 2015
101
83
83
China
2009
42
2015
Korea
INDIA
2009
2009
48
2015
2015
66
Taiwan
2009
Source: AME, ANZ, Wood Mackenzie
15
2015
Australia to increase market share
Global Thermal Coal Exports
m tonnes
% global share
1,000
21%
900
25
24%
Forecast
800
20
700
600
15
500
400
10
300
200
5
100
0
0
00
01
02
03
Indonesia
Colombia
Vietnam
Source: AME, Wood Mackenzie, ANZ
04
05
06
07
08
Australia
South Africa
Rest of World
16
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
Russia
United States
Australia's % of global
Port capacity constraints in NSW addressed by 2015?
New South Wales Coal Infrastructure Capacity
m tonnes
250
200
150
100
50
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Port Capacity
2012
2014
2016
Rail Capacity
Source: Wood Mackenzie
17
2018
2020
Rail capacity constraints restricting QLD until 2013
Queensland Coal Infrastructure Capacity
m tonnes
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Port Capacity
2012
2014
Rail Capacity
Source: Wood Mackenzie
18
2016
2018
2020
Australia has the reserves to provide longer term
Global Thermal Proven Coal Reserves (million tonnes)
Russia
147 bt
50 bt
246 bt
Europe
China
India
North
America
115 bt
Africa
15 bt
32 bt
Latin
America
Indonesia
4 bt
Australia
Total World
826 bt
Source: Indonesian Coal Mining Association, BP Statisctics
59 bt
19
76 bt
METALLURGICAL
COAL
20
China to become a substantial coking coal importer
China Coking Coal Imports & Exports
m tonnes
70
62
Coking Coal Imports
60
Coking Coal Exports
50
Net Imports
40
33
30
20
10
0
(10)
(20)
(30)
00
Source: AME, ANZ
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
21
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
India imports to rise 160% by 2015 – 260% on our upper case
India Coking Coal Imports
YoY change
m tonnes
106
110
Upper Case (Steel growth 15%pa)
100
35%
Forecast
Base case (Steel growth 9%pa)
90
30%
% change - base case (RHS)
80
76
% change - upper case (RHS)
25%
70
76
60
46
38
50
40
30
30
20
20%
15%
10%
5%
10
0
0%
00
01
02
03
04
Source: AME, Wood Mackenzie, ANZ
05
06
07
08
09 10F 11F 12F 13F 14F 15F
22
India jumps to number 1 on both growth scenario’s
Coking Coal Import Demand (million tonnes)
66
49
53
62
32
Japan
34
Europe
2009
2009
2015
China
17
2009
146
68
76
INDIA
Source: AME, Wood Mackenzie, ANZ
USA
6
8
2009
2015
Korea
2009
Taiwan
30
2009
2015
2015
27
5
2009
2015
23
2015
25
10
2015
12
Brazil
2009
2015
Global coking coal supply to remain leveraged to Australia
Global Coking Coal Exports
million tonnnes
% global share
400
70
61%
350
Forecast
60
54%
50
300
250
40
200
30
150
20
100
10
50
0
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10F 11F 12F 13F 14F 15F
Australia
Canada
United States
Russia
Rest of the World
Australia % of global
Source: AME, Wood Mackenzie, ANZ
24
APPENDIX
25
Appendix: ANZ quarterly commodity price forecasts
End of Period
Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13
unit
Copper
Aluminium
Lead
Nickel
Zinc
Gold
Silver
Platinum
WTI Crude
Iron Ore Fines
Iron Ore Lump
Premium Coking Coal
Steaming Coal
Alumina
Uranium
A$/US$
US$/lb
US$/lb
US$/lb
US$/lb
US$/lb
US$/oz
US$/oz
US$/oz
US$/bbl
US$/t
US$/t
US$/t
US$/t
US$/t
US$/lb
US$
Average
3.52
1.04
0.96
11.32
1.06
1,113
17.5
1,644
84
60
72
128
70
335
42
0.92
2.90
0.89
0.77
8.50
0.80
1,210
17.9
1,550
75
120
135
200
98
284
40
0.84
3.10
0.92
0.84
8.80
0.85
1,190
18.0
1,566
80
150
160
225
98
289
42
0.88
3.20
0.94
0.88
9.10
0.90
1,160
17.8
1,611
85
145
155
240
98
296
45
0.90
3.30
0.95
0.92
9.30
0.94
1,130
17.5
1,614
85
155
165
260
98
304
48
0.92
3.40
0.96
0.96
9.50
0.98
1,100
17.2
1,594
88
160
170
260
120
300
52
0.94
3.50
0.98
0.98
9.80
1.00
1,070
17.0
1,574
90
160
170
270
120
302
55
0.94
3.50
1.00
1.00
10.00
1.02
1,050
16.7
1,544
95
155
165
270
120
304
58
0.92
3.55
0.99
1.01
10.00
1.05
1,050
16.9
1,522
98
150
160
260
120
301
60
0.90
3.60
0.95
1.02
9.70
1.05
1,060
17.1
1,514
100
145
155
255
130
283
63
0.88
3.55
0.93
1.00
9.40
1.02
1,080
17.7
1,521
102
140
150
250
130
277
65
0.86
3.40
0.92
0.98
9.10
1.00
1,100
17.5
1,528
105
135
145
245
130
274
65
0.84
3.20
0.93
0.96
8.80
0.98
1,100
17.5
1,528
105
130
140
240
130
277
62
0.75
3.00
0.93
0.94
8.50
0.96
1,070
17.0
1,466
102
120
130
240
125
277
60
0.74
Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13
unit
Copper
Aluminium
Lead
Nickel
Zinc
Gold
Silver
Platinum
WTI Crude
Iron Ore Fines
Iron Ore Lump
Premium Coking Coal
Steaming Coal
Alumina
Uranium
A$/US$
US$/lb
US$/lb
US$/lb
US$/lb
US$/lb
US$/oz
US$/oz
US$/oz
US$/bbl
US$/t
US$/t
US$/t
US$/t
US$/t
US$/lb
US$
Source: Bloomberg, ANZ
3.29
0.98
1.00
9.10
1.04
1,110
16.9
1,565
79
60
72
128
70
325
42
0.90
3.21
0.97
0.87
9.91
0.93
1,162
17.7
1,597
79
120
135
200
98
308
41
0.88
3.00
0.91
0.81
8.65
0.83
1,200
18.0
1,558
78
150
160
225
98
285
41
0.86
3.15
0.93
0.86
8.95
0.88
1,175
17.9
1,588
83
145
155
240
98
293
44
0.89
3.25
0.95
0.90
9.20
0.92
1,145
17.7
1,613
85
155
165
260
98
302
47
0.91
26
3.35
0.96
0.94
9.40
0.96
1,115
17.4
1,604
87
160
170
260
120
299
50
0.93
3.45
0.97
0.97
9.65
0.99
1,085
17.1
1,584
89
160
170
270
120
299
54
0.94
3.50
0.99
0.99
9.90
1.01
1,060
16.8
1,559
93
155
165
270
120
301
57
0.93
3.53
1.00
1.01
10.00
1.04
1,050
16.8
1,533
97
150
160
260
120
303
59
0.91
3.58
0.97
1.02
9.85
1.05
1,055
17.0
1,518
99
145
155
255
130
289
62
0.89
3.58
0.94
1.01
9.55
1.04
1,070
17.4
1,518
101
140
150
250
130
280
64
0.87
3.48
0.93
0.99
9.25
1.01
1,090
17.6
1,524
104
135
145
245
130
275
65
0.85
3.30
0.93
0.97
8.95
0.99
1,100
17.5
1,528
105
130
140
240
130
275
64
0.80
3.10
0.93
0.95
8.65
0.97
1,085
17.2
1,497
104
120
130
240
125
277
61
0.75
Appendix: ANZ annual commodity price forecasts
End of Period
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010F
2011F
2012F
2013F
2014F
2015F
LT
3.33
1.00
1.09
8.37
1.15
1,097
16.9
1,466
79
60
72
128
70
305
45
0.90
3.20
0.94
0.88
9.10
0.90
1,160
17.8
1,611
85
145
155
240
98
296
45
0.90
3.50
1.00
1.00
10.00
1.02
1,050
16.7
1,544
95
155
165
270
120
304
58
0.92
3.40
0.92
0.98
9.10
1.00
1,100
17.5
1,528
105
135
145
245
130
274
65
0.84
2.80
0.94
0.90
8.00
0.93
1,030
16.5
1,411
95
115
125
230
125
280
58
0.74
2.20
0.98
0.79
7.30
0.84
880
14.4
1,173
84
100
105
180
115
292
52
0.72
2.30
1.00
0.80
7.50
0.85
750
12.5
1,000
85
80
90
150
90
300
50
0.72
2.30
1.00
0.80
7.50
0.85
750
12.5
1,000
85
80
90
150
90
300
50
0.72
2009F
2010F
2011F
2012F
2013F
2014F
2015F
LT
2.34
0.76
0.78
6.65
0.75
973
14.7
1,208
63
68
86
172
84
243
47
0.79
3.16
0.95
0.88
9.15
0.92
1,162
17.6
1,577
80
119
130
198
91
303
42
0.88
3.39
0.97
0.95
9.54
0.97
1,101
17.2
1,590
88
158
168
265
115
300
52
0.93
3.54
0.96
1.01
9.66
1.03
1,066
17.2
1,523
100
143
153
253
128
287
62
0.88
3.05
0.93
0.94
8.51
0.96
1,071
17.1
1,475
102
120
130
235
126
277
61
0.76
2.45
0.96
0.84
7.66
0.89
956
15.5
1,288
88
105
108
196
118
286
60
0.72
2.29
1.00
0.80
7.48
0.85
821
13.5
1,092
85
88
101
165
101
299
71
0.72
2.30
1.00
0.80
7.50
0.85
750
12.5
1,000
85
80
90
150
90
300
50
0.72
unit
Copper
Aluminium
Lead
Nickel
Zinc
Gold
Silver
Platinum
WTI Crude
Iron Ore Fines
Iron Ore Lump
Premium Coking Coal
Steaming Coal
Alumina
Uranium
A$/US$
US$/lb
US$/lb
US$/lb
US$/lb
US$/lb
US$/oz
US$/oz
US$/oz
US$/bbl
US$/t
US$/t
US$/t
US$/t
US$/t
US$/lb
US$
Average
1.05
0.72
0.33
7.52
0.46
417
6.0
814
33
20
25
46
27
340
14
0.75
2003
1.48
0.89
0.47
6.75
0.57
438
6.8
860
43
23
29
58
45
405
21
0.78
2004
2.06
1.03
0.49
6.07
0.86
513
8.8
965
61
39
50
127
53
585
36
0.73
2005
2.86
1.28
0.77
15.43
1.95
635
12.9
1,118
61
47
59
114
53
205
72
0.79
2006
3.01
1.07
1.15
11.80
1.07
834
14.8
1,526
96
51
65
98
56
360
90
0.80
2007
1.38
0.68
0.46
5.27
0.54
882
11.4
935
45
92
128
305
125
225
54
0.69
2008
unit
Copper
Aluminium
Lead
Nickel
Zinc
Gold
Silver
Platinum
WTI Crude
Iron Ore Fines
Iron Ore Lump
Premium Coking Coal
Steaming Coal
Alumina
Uranium
A$/US$
US$/lb
US$/lb
US$/lb
US$/lb
US$/lb
US$/oz
US$/oz
US$/oz
US$/bbl
US$/t
US$/t
US$/t
US$/t
US$/t
US$/lb
US$
Source: Bloomberg, ANZ
0.81
0.65
0.23
4.37
0.38
364
4.9
693
31
19
24
47
28
272
11
0.65
1.30
0.78
0.40
6.28
0.48
410
6.7
847
41
22
28
55
40
404
18
0.74
1.67
0.86
0.44
6.71
0.63
445
7.3
899
56
35
45
110
51
452
28
0.76
3.06
1.17
0.58
10.96
1.48
604
11.6
1,142
66
45
57
117
53
444
48
0.75
3.24
1.20
1.17
16.87
1.48
697
13.4
1,305
72
50
64
102
55
342
99
0.84
27
3.16
1.17
0.95
9.58
0.85
873
15.0
1,577
100
81
112
253
108
370
64
0.85
A key reason was the price arbitrage opportunity to China
China & Australia Coal Prices
US$/tonne
240
220
200
180
160
Price arbitrage
140
120
100
80
60
40
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Newcastle spot price (CIF China)
Source: Argus Coal. globalCOAL
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Qinhuangdao coal price (CIF domestic)
28
Spot coking coal prices FOB Australia are 20% above the new
contract
Spot and Contract Coking Coal Prices (FOB)
US$/t
420
360
300
240
180
120
60
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Shanghai spot
Source: Argus Coal. globalCOAL
Jul-08
Jan-09
Australia spot
29
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Australia contract
Jan-11
Spot coking coal prices FOB Australia are 20% above the new
contract
Coking Coal Prices
US$/t
420
forecast
360
ANZ forecast - 240
300
240
180
120
60
Jan-07
JSM annoucement
225
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Australia Spot Coking Coal Price
Source: Argus Coal. globalCOAL
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Contract Coking Coal Price
30
Low freight rates should spur stronger seaborne coal demand
in 2010
New Bulk Fleet Shipping Capacity
million dwt
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
98
99
00
01
Capesize
Source: AME, Clarksons, ANZ
02
03
04
05
Panamax
06
07
08
Handymax
31
09F
10F
11F
Handysize
12F
Coal and oil price correlation improving
Coal, Oil Prices & Freight Rates
US$/tonne
Coal Price & Oil Price
US$/bbl
200
160
180
140
160
120
140
US$/tonne
10,000
8,000
100
80
100
80
60
40
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Newcastle Thermal Coal FOB
Correlation coefficient
Jan-08
Jan-09
6,000
60
4,000
0
Jan-02
Jan-10
0
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Newcastle Thermal Coal FOB
WTI Oil Price (RHS)
Oil Price Correlation
2,000
20
0
Jan-03
80
40
20
0
Jan-02
12,000
140
120
20
14,000
160
100
40
points
180
120
60
Coal Price & Freight Rates
200
Correlation coefficient
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Baltic Freight Rate (RHS)
Freight Rate Correlation
0.0
(0.2)
(0.2)
(0.4)
(0.4)
(0.6)
(0.6)
(0.8)
(1.0)
Jan-02
(0.8)
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
(1.0)
Jan-02
Newcastle FOB/WTI 12mth rolling correlation
Source: globalCOAL, Bloomberg
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Newcastle FOB/Baltic 12mth rolling correlation
32
Jan-10
XXX
India Thermal Coal & Coking Coal Imports
m tonnes
160
60%
Forecast
140
50%
120
40%
100
30%
80
20%
60
10%
40
0%
20
0
-10%
00
01
02
03
04
Thermal Imports
Source: AME, Wood Mackenzie, ANZ
05
06
07
08
09
Coking Imports
33
10F 11F 12F 13F 14F 15F
% Thermal
% Coking
Global thermal coal demand will rise 8.8% to 732mt in 2010
Global Thermal Coal Imports
m tonnes
% global share
1,000
Forecast
900
9%
800
10
9
8
700
6%
7
600
6
500
5
400
4
300
3
200
2
100
1
0
0
00
01
Japan
02
03
04
China
Source: AME, Wood Mackenzie, ANZ
05
06
07
08
India
09
10F 11F 12F 13F 14F 15F
Rest of World
34
India's % of global
Global metallurgical coal demand will jump 14.2% in 2010
Global Coking Coal Imports
m tonnes
% global share
400
Forecast
19% 20
350
18
16
300
14%
14
250
12
200
10
150
8
6
100
4
50
2
0
0
00
01
Japan
Source: AME, ANZ
02
03
China
04
05
06
India
07
08
09
10F 11F 12F 13F 14F 15F
Rest of the World
35
China's % of global
Newcastle selling more to China
Newcastle Port Shipment Destinations
2006
India
3%
EU
2%
Mexico
6%
Other
2%
India
3%
Taiwan
14%
Other
3%
Taiwan
14%
Japan
55%
Malaysia
2%
S Korea
10%
China (PR)
3%
India
3%
China (PR)
3%
EU Mexico Other
3%
2% 1%
2009
Taiwan
10%
Taiwan
14%
S Korea
17%
Japan
61%
China (PR)
1%
Source: Bloomberg
India
1%
EU
2%
Mexico Other
3%
2%
Malaysia
1%
Malaysia
1%
S Korea
14%
Japan
56%
Malaysia
2%
S Korea
13%
2008
Mexico
EU 6%
3%
2007
China (PR)
9%
36
Japan
55%
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