IUMI 2010 ZURICH 12 – 15 September Shipping and global trade: A review of major developments 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER Hassiba Benamara UNCTAD CONTENTS I. Macro factors Economic growth and merchandise trade II. Shipping and seaborne trade Demand: seaborne trade Supply: fleet developments Freight rates III. Emerging challenges and some relevant issues to monitor Environment Energy 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER Other 2 I. 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER Economic growth and merchandise trade 3 The first and deepest contraction (-1.9%)… … in global output since the 1930s World GDP (real), 1971-2010 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER 4 UNCTAD and WTO, 2010 Broad-based and varied speed World GDP (% annual growth), 2004-2010 15.0 United States 10.0 EU Japan 5.0 India China 0.0 South Africa 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Brazil Russian Federation -5.0 -10.0 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER 5 UNCTAD, 2010 The “Great Trade Collapse” World GDP and trade (real), 1971-2010 15 per cent annual growth 10 Exports 5 GDP 09 2010 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 2000 99 98 97 96 95 94 93 92 91 89 1990 88 87 86 85 84 83 82 81 1980 79 78 77 76 75 74 73 72 1971 0 -5 -10 -15 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER 6 UNCTAD and WTO, 2010 Adverse trade shocks across regions World merchandise trade (real), 2009 Tra ns itio n Ec o nom ie s Im po rts E x ports C hin a W e s tern As ia D ev e lop ing As ia D ev e lop ing Am e ri ca Afric a D ev e lop ed As ia (J a pa n & I sra el ) E urop ea n Un ion (2 7) N orth A me ric a W O RL D -30 % -25 % -2 0 % -15 % 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER -1 0% -5% 0% 7 UNCTAD , 2010 An unprecedented trade contraction Merchandise exports dropped about 7 times more rapidly than global GDP (elasticity ≈ 2 in 60s and 70s and 3.4 in 90s). UNCTAD estimate for 1971-2010 ≈ 2.5. Demand shock and synchronized drop. Multiplier effect: Product composition of the fall in demand (e.g. consumer goods and durables, higher income elasticity). Trade in goods drops faster than trade in services which account for a larger share of GDP. Globalised production and increased trade in parts and components. Deepening and widening of global supply chains. Limited trade finance (in addition to demand shock). 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER 8 BUT… … there are signs of recovery in economic indicators… 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER 9 Business confidence is improving… Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, 2007-2010 120 World Advanced economies Emerging economies 110 100 90 80 70 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER 2010m5 2010m3 2010m1 2009m11 2009m9 2009m7 2009m5 2009m3 2009m1 2008m11 2008m9 2008m7 2008m5 2008m3 2008m1 2007m11 2007m9 2007m7 2007m5 2007m3 2007m1 60 10 IMF, WEO Update, July 2010 …so does consumer confidence… Retail sales, 2007-2010 170 World Advanced economies Emerging economies 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER 2010m3 2010m1 2009m11 2009m9 2009m7 2009m5 2009m3 2009m1 2008m11 2008m9 2008m7 2008m5 2008m3 2008m1 2007m11 2007m9 2007m7 2007m5 2007m3 2007m1 90 11 IMF, WEO Update, July 2010 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER IMF, WEO Update, July 2010 2010m4 2010m3 2010m2 2010m1 2009m12 2009m11 2009m10 2009m9 2009m8 2009m7 2009m6 2009m5 Advanced economies 2009m4 2009m3 2009m2 2009m1 2008m12 2008m11 2008m10 2008m9 2008m8 2008m7 2008m6 2008m5 World 2008m4 2008m3 2008m2 2008m1 2007m12 2007m11 2007m10 130 2007m9 2007m8 2007m7 2007m6 2007m5 2007m4 2007m3 2007m2 2007m1 …and industrial production Industrial production, 2007-2010 Emerging economies 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 12 GDP growth turned positive in Q2-2009… …UNCTAD expects GDP to grow by 3.5% in 2010 World GDP (% annual growth), 2007-2010 8 6 4 2 2010Q1 2009Q4 2009Q3 2009Q2 2009Q1 2008Q4 2008Q3 2008Q2 2008Q1 2007Q4 2007Q3 2007Q2 2007Q1 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER 13 IMF, WEO Update, July 2010 World exports forecast to grow… …by + 9.5% in 2010, 7.5% in developed economies; 11% ROW (developing and EIT) 150 Merchandise exports, 2007-2010 Advanced economies Emerging economies 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER 2010m3 2010m1 2009m11 2009m9 2009m7 2009m5 2009m3 2009m1 2008m11 2008m9 2008m7 2008m5 2008m3 2008m1 2007m11 2007m9 2007m7 2007m5 2007m3 2007m1 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 World 14 IMF, WEO Update, July 2010 Commodity prices are also rising Commodity price indices (actual and forecast, 2000=100), 2000-2011 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER 15 World Bank, 2010 Longer term outlook and a new global design Major industrialized countries – Twenty years up to 2009: – Next twenty years forecast: +2.2% +1.8% Major developing countries – Twenty years up to 2009: – Next twenty years forecast: +6.3% +5.9% World average – Twenty years up to 2009: – Next twenty years forecast: +2.9% +3.5% World exports (tons): - Expected to double in the next 20 years. 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER 16 Source: IHS-Fairplay, as presented to IAME 2010, Lisbon, July 2010 II. Shipping and seaborne trade 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER 17 Unsheltered from shocks in the wider economy… …seaborne trade contracted (-4.5%) in 2009 World seaborne trade (tons), 1970-2009 Year Oil Main bulks a Total Other dry cargo (all cargoes) 1970 1 442 448 676 2 566 1980 1 871 796 1 037 3 704 1990 1 755 968 1 285 4 008 2000 2 163 1 288 2 533 5 984 2006 2 698 1 849 3 135 7 682 2007 2 747 1 972 3 265 7 983 2008 2 732 2 079 3 399 8 210 2009 -3% b 2 649 +1.1% 2 102 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER 3 092 -9% -4.5% 7 843 18 UNCTAD RMT, 2010 All shipping segments negatively affected… …but major dry bulk cargo held strong; China factor Seaborne trade (% change), per cargo type, 2009-2010 Iron ore Coal Grain Bauxite and Alumina/Phosphate Rock Major dry bulk 2009 8% 1% -2% -27% 1% 2010f 6% 9% 2% 18% 7% Minor dry bulks -13% 9% -9% -9% 6% 11% -3% -4.5% 3% 5.2% Other dry cargo of which container Oil Total seaborne trade (tons) 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER 19 UNCTAD, RMT 2010; Clarkson Shipping Review (spring 2010), Dry Bulk Outlook, August, 2010, and Container Intelligence Monthly, August, 2010 2009, a dramatic year in the history of container shipping (-9.4%) Global container trade, 1990-2010 160 20 140 15 120 100 5 80 - Percentage Million TEUs 10 60 -5 40 20 -10 - -15 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER 20 UNCTAD, based on Clarkson Research Services and Drewry Consultants Fleet developments 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER 21 Growth in ship supply capacity continues… …1.27 billion dwt at the beginning of 2010, 7% increase World fleet by vessel type in million dwt, 1980-2010 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Other 31 45 49 58 75 49 92 Container 11 20 26 44 64 98 169 General cargo 116 106 103 104 101 92 108 Dry bulk 186 232 235 262 276 321 457 Oil Tanker 339 261 246 268 282 336 450 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER 2010 22 UNCTAD, based on IHS- Fairplay data 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER UNCTAD, based on IHS- Fairplay data 12 / 2009 09 / 2009 06 / 2009 03 / 2009 12 / 2008 09 / 2008 06 / 2008 03 / 2008 12 / 2007 09 / 2007 06 / 2007 03 / 2007 12 / 2006 09 / 2006 06 / 2006 03 / 2006 12 / 2005 09 / 2005 06 / 2005 03 / 2005 12 / 2004 09 / 2004 06 / 2004 03 / 2004 12 / 2003 09 / 2003 06 / 2003 03 / 2003 12 / 2002 09 / 2002 06 / 2002 03 / 2002 12 / 2001 09 / 2001 06 / 2001 03 / 2001 12 / 2000 Record new deliveries and an impressive orderbook World tonnage on order, 2000-2010 (000’ dwt) 300 000 250 000 Dry bulk 200 000 150 000 100 000 Oil tankers 50 000 Container ships General cargo 0 23 Wider supply and demand imbalance… …as illustrated by container shipping Supply and demand in container shipping, 2000-2010 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010a Demand 10.7 2.4 10.5 11.6 13.4 10.6 11.2 11.4 4.3 -9.1 11.1 Supply 7.8 8.5 8.0 8.0 8.0 10.5 13.6 11.8 10.8 5.1 8.8 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER 24 UNCTAD, based on Clarkson Container Intelligence Monthly Freight rates 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER 25 D/S determine freight rates… The year 2009 was a bleak year for freight rates in all market segments. By the end of 2009, rates in all sectors have recovered from their earlier lows albeit still significantly below their pre- crisis levels. Freight rates for 2010 were volatile and future prospects remain uncertain. 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER 26 Dirty Index 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER UNCTAD , based on Lloyd’s Shipping Economist data May-10 Mar-10 Jan-10 Nov-09 Sep-09 Jul-09 May-09 Mar-09 Jan-09 Nov-08 Sep-08 Jul-08 May-08 Mar-08 Jan-08 Nov-07 Sep-07 Jul-07 May-07 Mar-07 Jan-07 Nov-06 Sep-06 Jul-06 May-06 Mar-06 Jan-06 Nov-05 Sep-05 Jul-05 May-05 Mar-05 Jan-05 …tanker rates fell with falling oil demand Baltic Tanker Indices, 2005-2010 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Clean Index 27 0 Tramp 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER UNCTAD, based on ISL-Shipping Statistics and Market Review Mar-10 Jan-10 Nov-09 Sep-09 Jul-09 May-09 Mar-09 Jan-09 Nov-08 Sep-08 Jul-08 May-08 Mar-08 Jan-08 Nov-07 Sep-07 Jul-07 May-07 Mar-07 Jan-07 Nov-06 Sep-06 Jul-06 May-06 Mar-06 Jan-06 Nov-05 Sep-05 Jul-05 May-05 Mar-05 Jan-05 Nov-04 Sep-04 Jul-04 May-04 Mar-04 Jan-04 …dry bulk rates supported by demand from China… Dry cargo freight indices, 2004-2010 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Trip 28 … container rates supported by a series of counter-measures Container freight rates, 2005-2009 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 q1 2005 q2 2005 q3 2005 Asia–USA q4 2005 q1 2006 USA–Asia q2 2006 q3 2006 q4 2006 Europe–Asia q1 2007 q2 2007 Asia–Europe q3 2007 q4 2007 q1 2008 USA–Europe 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER q2 2008 q3 2008 q4 2008 q1 2009 q2 2009 q3 2009 q4 2009 Europe–USA 29 UNCTAD, based on Containerisation International data Summary of key points (1) 2009, a record in history. Prospects are improving; recovery varying in speed, driven by emerging developing economies (e.g. Asia). Various forecasts for 2010/2011 (UNCTAD, IMF, WB, IHSFairplay, …); all positive. World merchandise trade is forecast to grow in 2010 and 2011(e.g. WTO and World Bank). World seaborne trade also forecast to grow in 2010 and 2011. 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER 30 BUT… … the outlook remains fragile in view of various downside risks… 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER 31 Summary of key points (2) Sustainability of recovery, strength and shape (V, U or W)? Public debts Unemployment and bank lending Stimulus packages (duration/end) Is observed trade recovery driven by new demand? Supply-side pressures Known and unknown crises 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER 32 III. Emerging challenges and issues to monitor Energy: access, security and prices Climate change: mitigation and adaptation Seafaring crisis? Supply chain security and piracy Other global crises: e.g. food, water, financial… Geopolitics Other ? 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER 33 Focus on two emerging global challenges Climate change & energy: interconnected Climate change mitigation action has implications for ship design, engines, fuel systems, operations, services, management, value, etc. Indirect implications through changes in demand for shipping services. E.g. climate induced changes in trade structure, flows and patterns through impacts on sectors such as energy production and consumption, agriculture and food products, demography and human settlement, etc. Climate change mitigation and adaptation require energy. However, there are signs of a looming energy crisis. Shipping is heavily reliant on oil for propulsion and not yet in a position to effectively and widely adopt substitutes. 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER 34 Conclusion? 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER 35 Addition information… …and publications by UNCTAD, including on oil prices and maritime freight rates, maritime transport and the climate change challenge, as well as supply chain security are available at: UNCTAD Trade Logistics Branch www.unctad.org/ttl/legal UNCTAD’s annual Review of Maritime Transport and quarterly Transport Newsletter are available at: www.unctad.org/transportnews 12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER 36