Ladislau Martin Neto - International Economic Forum of the Americas

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Global Food
(In)Security and
Brazilian
Potential
Ladislau Martin-Neto
R&D Executive Director
Embrapa
Brazil
The International Economic
Forum of The Americas
Palm Beach Strategic Forum
April, 8, 2014
Brazil
– Growth
Agriculture
Production
AgBrazilProduction
World
Ranking – Productivity
2013/14
of Agricultural
Perspective
IN MILLIONS - TONNES )
1 1 1 2 2 2010-30,
3 3 4(%4INCREASE
5
Grains
(1976/2011)
Product
2010
2030
Product
2010
79,9
90,0 Variation, 1976/77 to 2010/11
3.8
27.1
31.5
55.6
76.7
40,00
3.156
1.0508,5
3.4
70%
3.000
7,2
4.3
1.000
48,86
61%
20,00
50,0
40,0
20%
37,2
AGRIBUSINESS
10%
SURPLUS
OF TRADE
0%
BALANCE IN BILLIONS
OF DOLLARS
30,0
2007/08
2
2006/07
2005/06
49%
2004/05
38%
1
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
1
1996/97
1
1995/96
1994/95
1993/94
1992/93
48%
52,6
60,0
29%
1
1991/92
1984/85
1983/84
41%
40%
30%
1982/83
1981/82
1980/81
1979/80
1978/79
1977/78
1976/77
50%
1
1990/91
54%1
60%
0,00
Yield (kg/ha)
80,00
Beans
(Phaseolus)
Around 67.8
79% of the
100.9
Brazilian food production is
Sorghum
2.1
3.4
2.500
consumed domestically
Wheat
2.000
and 21% 6.0
is shipped7.2
to over
Meat (eq. carcass)1.500
9.3 markets
13.9
180 foreign
Soybean
4.5
15,8
712
3.500
4
500
0
5
2009/11
100,00
Sugar
cane
60,00
50%
26%
22,1
20,0
19%
31,0
16%
16,4
15,1 15,9
7,3
10,0
3,1
6,3
eq
t
.c
ar
ca
ss
)
Be
C
O ansCo offe
ra (P ffe e
ng h e
e ase
ju o
ice lu
s)
SSuug
gaar
r ca
ne
Ri
ce
Co
tto
n
0,0
Be
So Ceaf
yb ssa
ea va
n
Co M
a
Ch rn ize
so ickSeo
yb
nybe
ea
an
n
Sooi
rgl
Po hu
rk m
M cot W
ea
t h
t ( on ea
O
18,1
1989/90
0,0
20,2
1988/89
10,0
34,4
n
C
hi
so cke
yb
n
ea
n
oi
l
Po
rk
co
tto
n
20,0
Maize
17.7
2.8
1987/88
30,0
Coffee
120,00
26,8
12.6
40,8
2009/10
48,6
2008/09
Rice
140,00
1986/87
40,0
Cassava
PRODUCTION4.000
4.9
154,20
C
of (million tons) and
raProduction
fe (million ha)
ng area
e
e
ju
ic
e
Su
ga
r
50,0
Cotton
160,00
+ 151%
C
or
60,0
Yield (kg/ha)
+ 31%
1985/86
70,0
+ 228%
Be
So ef
yb
ea
n
80,0
2030
Area (million ha)
Production (million tons)
EXPORT
Brazilian Support
to Small-holder
Farmers
Brazilian
Agriculture
Photo: Cláudio Morões
Contribution of Small-holder Farmers
• Creation of additional Ministry of Agrarian
Development, in 2000 (maintained original
» Farming area: 106.8 million hectares
Ministry of Agriculture)
» 12 million producers (1/3 of them are women)
• Specific Annual Program to finance small
»farms
24% production
of agricultural area
84% of land
in Brazil
•»However
dataowners
of 2006
(IBGE):
•4.4 million of farmers declared
» Cassava.......
87%
» Poultry..... 50%
income
» Milk...............
58%
»(11%)
Corn........
•0.5 million farmers
– 87 46%
% of
» Beans.............70%
production value » Pork...... 59%
•3.9 million farmers
13%34%
of
» Beef..........
30%
»(89%)Rice.........
production value (many of them in
poverty conditions)
• So an important challenge remains to
improve
conditions to small-holder farmers
Source: Ministry of Agrarian Development
(creation of new Rural Extension Agency
this year by Brazilian Governor)
Renewable
Land-Use
Energy
in Brazil
in Brazil
AMAZON
PROTECTED
100
90
86
80
70
60
50
40
30
10
850 M ha
Amazonian
and other
preservation
areas
500 M ha
SEMI-ARID55Potential of
45
CERRADO
(SAVANNAH 200 Mi ha)
87%
14
of sugarcane
Production
(4 million ha – World SUBTROPICALBrazil
ethanol
production)
20
Total area
350 M ha
Agricultural
Land
TodayGrains and
perennial
0
60 M ha
(sugarcane- 8 M
ha; reforestation- 6
M ha
RENEWABLE
Pasture-
190 M ha
NON-RENEWABLE
Areas
to be
cultivated
100 M ha
Global Arable Areas and Population - 2009
In the future, increasing
fraction of agricultural
production will have to be
mobilized via trade since
the distribution of the
world population by region
does not follow the
distribution of arable land
Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture by
2080
Cropped
areas
in
the
world
Water stress indicator (WSI) in major basins
Irrigation- consumption of 70% of world water
Pastùreland and no utilized areas
ha
Million Milhões
de ha
Agriculture
Venezuela
Colombia
Indonesia
Argentina
Canada
Australia
China
India
Russia
USA
Brazil
Intense biotic (pests) and abiotic (drought, flood, soil acidity, low nutrients, etc) stresses.
All these challenges will be intensified with the global climatic changes.
France
- The poorest areas of the globe are the most challenging to agriculture -
Fonte: FAO
2004
Source: based on Cline, W. R. 2007. Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates
by -Country.
Washington D.C.: Peterson Institute
Available at: http://www.unep.org/geo/pdfs/geo5/GEO5_report_full_en.pdf
SOURCE: FAO 2004
Preventive Plant Breeding
soybean
rust
Preventive
Breeding
2013
– poliphagous
larvaeto develop, in
Program
designed
caused by Helicoverpa
armigera
International
advance, geneticPartners
stocks
of different
crops
which
are PORTUGAL
resistant
to
Maize to their
quarantine organisms,
prior
Soybean
Late Wilt of Corn
UNITED STATES
Red Leaf Blotch Harpophora maydis
Phoma glycinicola
Preventive
Plant Breeding
entrance in the country.
Rice
Panicle Blight
Burkholderia glumae
Development of plant varieties
resistant to high risk quarantine
PANAMA
pests
and pathogens
Rice
Bacterial Blight
Xanthomonas oryzae
pv. oryzae
BRAZIL
ANGOLA
Soybean
Red Leaf Blotch
Phoma glycinicola
CHILE
Common Bean
Halo Blight
Pseudomonas savastanoi
pv. phaseolicola
Subtotal 2013:>US$4.6 billions
Field
Experiment
2013/2014
Season
Soybean
Experimental
Field
Low Carbon Emission
Agriculture Program
88
Soybean
Land use
Areb-intensification
transgenic
conventional
40°C (104 °F) - 49 days – rainfall 44 mm
Typical rainfall season 300 mm
Integrated system- crop-livestock-forest
Fonte: MAPA, 2010 – Fotos de Votorantin Metais
Sharing Knowledge of Tropical Agriculture
Structuring Projects in Africa
Pro-Savannah Project - Mozambique
Brazil
13º S
Lichinga
Nacala corridor
Nampula
17º S




Similar biomes
Similar challenges
New learning opportunities
A common vision for the future
“…But the availability of farmland is in fact only
a secondary reason for the extraordinary
growth in Brazilian agriculture. If you want the
primary reason in three words, they are
Embrapa, Embrapa, Embrapa.” The Economist,
August 28th 2010
Thank you
[email protected]
www.embrapa.br
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