TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1.0: Trends in the Overall Health Care Market Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2010 Chart 1.2: Percent Change in Total National Health Expenditures, 1990 – 2010 Chart 1.3: Per Capita National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2010 Chart 1.4: National Health Expenditures as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product, 1990 – 2010 Chart 1.5: National Expenditures for Health Services and Supplies by Category, 1980 and 2010 Chart 1.6: Percent Change in National Expenditures for Health Services and Supplies by Category, 2009 – 2010 Chart 1.7: Percent Change in National Expenditures for Selected Health Services and Supplies, 2000 – 2010 Chart 1.8: National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2020 Chart 1.9: Consumer Out-of-pocket Payments for National Health Expenditures, 1990 – 2010 Chart 1.10: Total Prescription Drug Spending, 1980 – 2010 Chart 1.11: Growth in Total Prescription Drug Spending as a Percentage of Total Growth in National Health Expenditures, 1990 – 2010 Chart 1.12: Consumer Out-of-pocket Spending vs. Private Health Insurance Spending for Prescription Drugs, 1990 – 2010 Chart 1.13: Distribution of National Health Expenditures by Source of Payment, 1980, 2000, and 2010 Chart 1.14: Distribution of Health Insurance Coverage, Percentage of Population Covered by Payer, 1990, 2009, and 2010 Chart 1.15: Number and Percent Uninsured, 1990 – 2010 TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1.0: Trends in the Overall Health Care Market Chart 1.16: Average Percent Uninsured by State, 2008 – 2010 Chart 1.17: Medicare Enrollees, 1991 – 2011 Chart 1.18: Medicaid Enrollees, 1990, 1995, 2000 – 2011 Chart 1.19: National CHIP Enrollment, FY 1999 – FY 2010 Chart 1.20: Percent Change in CHIP Enrollment By State, FY 2009 – FY 2010 Chart 1.21: Percentage of Employees with Employer-based Coverage Who Can Choose Conventional, PPO, HMO, POS, and HDHP/SO Plans, 1988 – 2011 Chart 1.22: Distribution of Employer-sponsored Health Insurance Enrollment by Type of Plan, 1988 – 2011 Chart 1.23: Percentage of Medicare Beneficiaries Enrolled in Medicare Managed Care, 1991 – 2011 Chart 1.24: Percent Growth in Medicare Spending per Beneficiary vs. Private Health Insurance Spending per Enrollee, 1990 – 2010 Chart 1.25: Percentage of Medicaid Beneficiaries Enrolled in Medicaid Managed Care, 1992 – 2010 Chart 1.26: Percentage of Medicaid Beneficiaries Enrolled in Medicaid Managed Care by State, 2010 Chart 1.27: Annual Change in Health Insurance Premiums, 2000 – 2011 Chart 1.28: Managed Care Plan Median Operating Margins, 1997 – 2011 Chart 1.29: Operating Margins of the Top Insurers, 2009 – 2011 Chart 1.1: Total National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2010(1) $3,200 $2,700 Billions $2,200 $1,700 $1,200 $700 Inf lation Adjusted (2) $200 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released January 9, 2012. (1) CMS completed a benchmark revision in 2009, introducing changes in methods, definitions and source data that are applied to the entire time series (back to 1960). For more information on this revision, see http://www.cms.gov/nationalhealthexpenddata/downloads/benchmark2009.pdf. (2) Expressed in 1980 dollars; adjusted using the overall Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers. Chart 1.2: Percent Change in Total National Health Expenditures, 1990 – 2010 (1) 3.9% 3.8% 6.2% 6.6% 6.8% 7.1% 8.4% 9.5% 8.5% 7.0% 6.4% 5.8% 5.6% 5.3% 5.6% 7.4% 5.6% 4.7% 5% 8.4% 10% 9.3% Percent Change 15% 11.9% 20% 0% 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released January 9, 2012. (1) CMS completed a benchmark revision in 2009, introducing changes in methods, definitions and source data that are applied to the entire time series (back to 1960). For more information on this revision, see http://www.cms.gov/nationalhealthexpenddata/downloads/benchmark2009.pdf. Chart 1.3: Per Capita National Health Expenditures, 1980 – 2010(1) $9,200 Per Capita Amount $8,200 $7,200 $6,200 $5,200 $4,200 $3,200 $2,200 Inflation Adjusted(2) $1,200 $200 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released January 9, 2012. (1) CMS completed a benchmark revision in 2009, introducing changes in methods, definitions and source data that are applied to the entire time series (back to 1960). For more information on this revision, see http://www.cms.gov/nationalhealthexpenddata/downloads/benchmark2009.pdf. (2) Expressed in 1980 dollars; adjusted using the overall Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers. 17.9% 17.9% 16.8% 16.4% 16.1% 16.0% 15.9% 15.4% 13.8% 13.8% 13.7% 13.7% 13.8% 13.9% 13.7% 13.8% 13.5% 14% 13.2% Percentage of GDP 16% 12.5% 18% 14.5% 20% 16.2% Chart 1.4: National Health Expenditures as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product, 1990 – 2010(1) 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released January 9, 2012. (1) CMS completed a benchmark revision in 2009, introducing changes in methods, definitions and source data that are applied to the entire time series (back to 1960). For more information on this revision, see http://www.cms.gov/nationalhealthexpenddata/downloads/benchmark2009.pdf. Chart 1.5: National Expenditures for Health Services and Supplies(1) by Category, 1980 and 2010(2) $235.7B $2,444.6B Other,(3) 15.8% Other, (3) 11.5% Nursing Home Care, 6.5% Other Medical Durables and Non-durables, 5.9% Prescription Drugs, 5.1% Home Health Care, 1.0% Other Prof essional,(4) 7.2% Nursing Home Care, 5.9% Other Medical Durables and Non-durables, 3.3% Prescription Drugs, 10.6% Home Health Care, 2.9% Other Prof essional, (4) 7.1% Physician Services, 20.2% Physician Services, 21.1% Hospital Care, 42.6% Hospital Care, 33.3% 1980 2010 Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released January 9, 2012. (1) Excludes medical research and medical facilities construction. (2) CMS completed a benchmark revision in 2009, introducing changes in methods, definitions and source data that are applied to the entire time series (back to 1960). For more information on this revision, see http://www.cms.gov/nationalhealthexpenddata/downloads/benchmark2009.pdf. (3) “Other” includes net cost of insurance and administration, government public health activities, and other personal health care. (4) “Other professional” includes dental and other non-physician professional services. Chart 1.6: Percent Change in National Expenditures for Health Services and Supplies(1) by Category, 2009 – 2010(2) 9% 7.2% Percent Change 7% 6.4% 6.2% 4.9% 5% All Health Services & Supplies, 4.0% 2.5% 3% 2.8% 4.7% 3.2% 1.2% 1% -1% -3% Home Health Admin. & Net Prescription Care Cost of Private Drugs Health Insurance Hospital Care Other(3) Physician Services Other Nursing Home Other Medical Professional (4) Care Durables and Non-durables Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released January 9, 2012. (1) Excludes medical research and medical facilities construction. (2) CMS completed a benchmark revision in 2009, introducing changes in methods, definitions and source data that are applied to the entire time series (back to 1960). For more information on this revision, see http://www.cms.gov/nationalhealthexpenddata/downloads/benchmark2009.pdf. (3) “Other” includes government public health activities and other personal health care. (4) “Other professional” includes dental and other non-physician professional services. Chart 1.7: Percent Change in National Expenditures for Selected Health Services and Supplies, 2000 – 2010(1) 25% 20% Admin. & Net Cost of Private Health Insurance Percent Change Prescription Drugs 15% 10% Hospital Care 5% Home Health Care Nursing Home Care 0% -5% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released January 9, 2012. (1) CMS completed a benchmark revision in 2009, introducing changes in methods, definitions and source data that are applied to the entire time series (back to 1960). For more information on this revision, see http://www.cms.gov/nationalhealthexpenddata/downloads/benchmark2009.pdf. Chart 1.8: National Health Expenditures,(1) 1980 – 2021(2) $5,000 $4,500 $4,000 $3,500 Billions $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 80 90 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released June 2012. (1) Years 2011 – 2021 are projections. (2) CMS completed a benchmark revision in 2009, introducing changes in methods, definitions and source data that are applied to the entire time series (back to 1960). For more information on this revision, see http://www.cms.gov/nationalhealthexpenddata/downloads/benchmark2009.pdf. Chart 1.9: Consumer Out-of-pocket Payments for National Health Expenditures, 1990 – 2010(1) $320 $280 $240 Billions $200 $160 $120 $80 $40 $0 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released January 9, 2012. (1) CMS completed a benchmark revision in 2009, introducing changes in methods, definitions and source data that are applied to the entire time series (back to 1960). For more information on this revision, see http://www.cms.gov/nationalhealthexpenddata/downloads/benchmark2009.pdf. Chart 1.10: Total Prescription Drug Spending, 1980 – 2010(1) $280 $240 Billions $200 $160 $120 $80 $40 Inflation Adjusted(2) $0 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released January 9, 2012. (1) CMS completed a benchmark revision in 2009, introducing changes in methods, definitions and source data that are applied to the entire time series (back to 1960). For more information on this revision, see http://www.cms.gov/nationalhealthexpenddata/downloads/benchmark2009.pdf. (2) Expressed in 1980 dollars; adjusted using the overall Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers. Chart 1.11: Growth in Total Prescription Drug Spending as a Percentage of Total Growth in National Health Expenditures, 1990 – 2010(1) Percentage of Total Growth 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released January 9, 2012. (1) CMS completed a benchmark revision in 2009, introducing changes in methods, definitions and source data that are applied to the entire time series (back to 1960). For more information on this revision, see http://www.cms.gov/nationalhealthexpenddata/downloads/benchmark2009.pdf. Billions Chart 1.12: Consumer Out-of-pocket Spending vs. Private Health Insurance Spending for Prescription Drugs, 1990 – 2010(1) $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Private Health Insurance Out-of -pocket 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released January 9, 2012. (1) CMS completed a benchmark revision in 2009, introducing changes in methods, definitions and source data that are applied to the entire time series (back to 1960). For more information on this revision, see http://www.cms.gov/nationalhealthexpenddata/downloads/benchmark2009.pdf. Chart 1.13: Distribution of National Health Expenditures by Source of Payment, 1980, 2000, and 2010(1) $255.8B $1,377.2B Out-of-pocket, 11.6% Out-of-pocket, 14.7% Out-of-pocket, 22.8% $2,593.6B Other Private, 5.7% Other Private, 6.3% Other Private, 7.9% Private Insurance, 32.7% Private Insurance, 33.4% Private Insurance, 27.0% Other Government, 13.8% Other Government, 14.5% Other Government, 17.5% Total Medicaid, 16.0% Total Medicaid, 14.8% Total Medicaid, 10.2% Medicare, 20.2% Medicare, 16.3% Medicare, 14.6% 1980 2000 2010 Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released January 9, 2012. (1) CMS completed a benchmark revision in 2009, introducing changes in methods, definitions and source data that are applied to the entire time series (back to 1960). For more information on this revision, see http://www.cms.gov/nationalhealthexpenddata/downloads/benchmark2009.pdf. Chart 1.14: Distribution of Health Insurance Coverage, Percentage of Population Covered by Payer, 1990, 2009, and 2010 Private 63.9% 64.0% 73.2% 13.0% 14.3% 14.5% Medicare 9.7% Medicaid 15.7% 15.9% 1990 2009 2010 4.0% 4.1% 4.2% Other Government 13.9% 16.7% 16.3% Uninsured 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Source: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2011 Annual and Social Economic Supplement. Data released February 2011. Table HIB-4. Health Insurance Coverage Status and Type of Coverage by State All People: 1999 to 2010. Link: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/hlthins/data/historical/files/hihistt4B.xls. Chart 1.15: Number and Percent Uninsured, 1990 – 2010 Number Percent Number of Uninsured (Millions) 50 18% 16% 45 14% 40 12% 35 30 10% 25 8% 20 6% 15 4% 10 Percent of Total Population 55 2% 5 0 0% 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: US Census Bureau, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2010. Data released August 2011. Table 8. People Without Health Insurance Coverage by Selected Characteristics: 2009 and 2010. Link: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/hlthins/data/incpovhlth/2010/table8.pdf. Chart 1.16: Average Percent Uninsured by State, 2008 – 2010 RI 11.5% DE 11.7% DC 11.4% < 10.0% 10.0% - 14.9% 15.0% - 19.9% 20.0% Source: US Census Bureau, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2010. Data released August 2011. Link: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/hlthins/data/incpovhlth/2010/state.xls. 46.6 47.7 48.7 38.8 39.7 40.1 45.5 38.4 39.1 44.4 38.1 43.4 37.5 42.6 36.9 41.9 36.3 41.2 35.6 40.5 34.9 Chart 1.17: Medicare Enrollees,(1) 1991 – 2011 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 50 45 40 35 Millions 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Medicare Enrollment: National Trends, 1966 – 2005; Medicare Aged and Disabled Enrollees by Type of Coverage. CMS, Office of the Actuary. Email correspondence with CMS staff (for years 2001 – 2011). (1) Hospital insurance (Part A) enrollees and/or Supplementary Medical Insurance (Part B) enrollees; includes all persons (aged and disabled). Chart 1.18: Medicaid Enrollees,(1) 1990, 1995, 2000 – 2011 80 67.8 70 57.3 60 48.4 Millions 50 60.9 60.5 69.5 Other Title XIX 62.1 Adults 52.4 44.5 36.3 40 30 50.9 58.6 67.7 25.3 Children 20 Blind/Disabled 10 Aged 0 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Congressional Budget Office. Data released February 2011. Spending and Enrollment Detail for CBO’s March 2011 Baseline: Medicaid. Link: http://www.cbo.gov/budget/factsheets/2011b/medicaid.pdf. (1) Does not include CHIP Enrollees. Chart 1.19: National CHIP Enrollment,(1, 2) FY 1999 – FY 2010 7,695,264 7,705,723 6,745,194 5,984,772 7,097,584 7,355,746 6,102,784 6,151,215 5,353,812 4,622,204 3,333,879 1,959,330 FY 1999 FY 2000 FY 2001 FY 2002 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Data released February 2011. Number of Children Ever Enrolled by Program Type. Link: http://www.cms.hhs.gov/NationalCHIPPolicy/downloads/CHIPEverEnrolledYearGraph.pdf. (1) Number of children enrolled at any point in the year. (2) 2009 figure reflects revised data released by Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services on February 1, 2011. FY 2010 Chart 1.20: Percent Change in CHIP Enrollment by State, FY 2009 – FY 2010(1) RI 19% DE 2% DC -13% <0% 1% - 9% 10% - 19% 20% - 29% 30% Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Data released February 2011. Number of Children Ever Enrolled by Program Type. Link: http://www.cms.gov/NationalCHIPPolicy/downloads/FY2010StateCHIPTotalTable_020111_FINAL.pdf. (1) 2009 figure reflects revised data released by Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services on February 1, 2011. Chart 1.21: Percentage of Employees with Employer-based Coverage Who Can Choose Conventional, PPO, HMO, POS, and HDHP/SO Plans, 1988 – 2011 100% Conventional (1) (2) PPO HMO POS 2005 2006 2007 HDHP/SO (3) 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1988 1996 1999 2002 2008 2009 2010 Source: The Kaiser Family Foundation and Health Research and Educational Trust. Data Released 2011. Employer Health Benefits: 1999, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011. Link: http://ehbs.kff.org/pdf/2011/8225.pdf. KPMG Survey of Employer-Sponsored Health Benefits: 1988, 1996. (1) Conventional plans refer to traditional indemnity plans. (2) Point-of-service plans not separately identified in 1988. (3) In 2006, the survey began asking about HDHP/SO, high deductible health plans with a savings option. 2011 Chart 1.22: Distribution of Employer-sponsored Health Insurance Enrollment by Type of Plan, 1988 – 2011 100% HDHP/SO POS 80% (3) (2) HMO 60% 40% PPO 20% Conventional 0% 1988 1996 1999 2002 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: The Kaiser Family Foundation and Health Research and Educational Trust. Data Released 2011. Employer Health Benefits: 1999, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011. Link: http://ehbs.kff.org/pdf/2011/8225.pdf. KPMG Survey of Employer-Sponsored Health Benefits: 1988, 1996. (1) Conventional plans refer to traditional indemnity plans. (2) Point-of-service plans not separately identified in 1988. (3) In 2006, the survey began asking about HDHP/SO, high deductible health plans with a savings option. 2011 (1) 5% 6% 4% 8% 9% 6% 12% 17% 25% 25% 22% 13% 12% 12% 17% 17% 15% 13% 10% 15% 13% 18% 16% 21% 4% Percentage of Beneficiaries 24% 20% 27% 24% Chart 1.23: Percentage of Medicare Beneficiaries Enrolled in Medicare Managed Care,1991 – 2011 3% 0% 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Email correspondence with CMS staff in January 2012. Chart 1.24: Percent Growth in Medicare Spending per Beneficiary vs. Private Health Insurance Spending per Enrollee, 1990 – 2010(1,2) 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% Private Health Insurance 8% 6% 4% 2% Medicare 0% 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Data released January 9, 2012. (1) CMS completed a benchmark revision in 2009, introducing changes in methods, definitions and source data that are applied to the entire time series (back to 1960). For more information on this revision, see http://www.cms.hhs.gov/NationalHealthExpendData/downloads/tables.pdf. (2) Data reflects spending on benefits commonly covered by Medicare and Private Health Insurance. 07 08 09 10 Chart 1.25: Percentage of Medicaid Beneficiaries Enrolled in Medicaid Managed Care, 1992 – 2010 80% 71% 72% 71% Percentage of Beneficiaries 70% 57% 58% 59% 54% 56% 56% 60% 65% 64% 48% 50% 40% 40% 29% 30% 20% 61% 63% 23% 12% 14% 10% 0% 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Medicaid Managed Care Enrollment Report as of June 30, 2010. 09 10 Chart 1.26: Percentage of Medicaid Beneficiaries Enrolled in Medicaid Managed Care by State, 2010 RI DE DC 67.4% 77.4% 69.7% 0% 1% - 24% 25% - 49% 50% - 74% 75% - 100% Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary. Medicaid Managed Care Enrollment Report as of June 30, 2010. Chart 1.27: Annual Change in Health Insurance Premiums, 2000 – 2011 16% Annual Percent Change 13.3% 13.3% 12% 11.2% 9.7% 9.7% 9.5% 9.4% 8% 5.5% 5.5% 4.7% 5.5% 4% 3.0% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: The Kaiser Family Foundation and Health Research and Educational Trust. Data Released 2011. Link: http://ehbs.kff.org/pdf/2011/8225.pdf. 2010 2011 Chart 1.28: Managed Care Plan Median Operating Margins,(1) 1997 – 2011 10% Median Operating Margins 9% 7.8% 8% 6.9% 7% 6% 5% 4% 5.8% 4.9% 4.9% 7.1% 7.5% 6.6% 6.3% 6.5% 5.6% 5.0% 4.4% 3.8% 3.9% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Company documents of publicly traded managed care plans. (1) Represents earnings before interest and taxes over net revenues for the total service lines of the11 largest publicly traded managed care plans. Chart 1.29: Operating Margins of the Top Insurers, 2009 – 2011 2009 2010 2011 14% Operating Margin 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Aetna WellPoint UnitedHealth Group Source: FactSet Research Systems Inc. Data for all years updated as of March 2012. Data from Hoovers used in 2011 and earlier years’ Chartbooks. Cigna Humana