Business Leader Presentation - Columbia

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Political
Economic
Client
Social and Cultural
Politicians*
58%
34%
Statewide Issues
40%
32%
Gun Control*
Hydrofracking*
56%
*Siena Political Poll Mar 2014
**Siena Political Poll Feb 2014
***Siena Political Poll Oct 2013
63%
42%
Casino Gambling***
40%
43%
53%
Recreational Marijuana**
Right Track/Wrong Direction*
46%
43%
115.0
United States
New York
105.0
95.0
85.0
75.0
65.0
55.0
45.0
Index of Consumer Sentiment
Consumer Real Estate Sentiment
Upstate Business Leader Sentiment
Civic Health
Quality of Life
Leisure Time
Health: Tobacco and
Public Health Issues
Technology
115.0
Index of Consumer Sentiment, U.S. and New York, 1999-Present
105.0
95.0
85.0
75.0
65.0
55.0
45.0
United States
New York
25
20
15
10
5
0
Cars/Trucks
50
40
30
20
10
0
Electronics*
*In July 2013, the wording was changed from “computer” to “consumer electronics like a personal computer, cell phone, television or tablet.
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Furniture
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Current Sentiment Scores
2010 - 2013
55.0
45.0
35.3
35.0
32.5
35.1
33.1
31.4
30.7
31.5
33.4
29.2
31.2
28.4
25.0
22.9
23.1
15.0
13.5
1Q10
-15.0
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
-19.6
-26.6
-28.3
3Q12
-12.1
-18.8
-25.0
-31.0
-32.0
-30.0
-35.0 -38.9
-45.0
6.4
5.1
5.0
-5.0
20.1
-42.2
-40.1
-24.1
-30.9
-36.7
4Q12
1Q13-4.8 2Q13
-6.8
-14.8
-21.0
-30.9
-39.3
-41.7
-41.3
-47.0
-50.8
-55.0
Overall Current
Sell Current
Buy Current
7.2
Thriving
17.7
12.5
12.2
3Q13
12.0
6.8
3.1
4Q13
90%
80%
70%
Gas and
Food
60%
50%
40%
30%
Gas
Food
Gas & Food
Holiday Budgets 2007 – 2013
Under $300
Holiday
Spending
2013
2011
2009
2007
28%
23%
27%
26%
30%
28%
21%
$300 to $600
$600 to $1,000
33%
34%
36%
38%
35%
34%
33%
13%
13%
12%
13%
12%
14%
13%
$1,000 or more
25%
29%
26%
23%
23%
23%
33%
Is government more of the problem or more of the
solution when it comes to the economic issues?
Recession
Effects
Don’t Know
Solution
13%
23%
64%
Problem
The Fiscal Condition of New York
Excellent/Good
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Fair/Poor
Thinking about those five issues which do you think should be the MOST important item on
Governor Cuomo's 'to do' list?
Working to improve
public education
Improving the state's
economic climate
Reducing the state's tax burden
on middle class families
28%
25%
25%
Siena NY Poll
November 2013
Eliminating corruption in
state government
Ensuring New York is prepared for future
natural disasters
15%
4%
Do you think Governor Cuomo has succeeded in creating a
business climate that helps New York State businesses be
more successful or have his efforts had little effect?
Succeeded
Had little effect
Public
DK/No Opinion
Thinking specifically about New York and the
relationship between the state government and
businesses like yours, overall would you say the
government of the State of New York is doing an
excellent, good, fair or poor job of creating a business
climate in which companies like yours will succeed?
Excellent/Good
Fair/Poor
CEO
DK/No Opinion
If You Had to do it All Over Again, Would You Locate in NY or Someplace Else?
New York
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Someplace Else
50%
Don't Know
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
NYCEO
ICS
120
100
92
80
78
98
98
103
86
86
82
86
2009
2010
2011
2012
95
70
60
39
40
20
0
2007
2008
2013
*Chart includes data from statewide numbers (ICS) and compares to upstate numbers (CEO)
SRI conducted the seventh annual Upstate New York Business Leader
Survey from October 21 – December 31, 2013.
SRI mailed surveys to all private, for-profit businesses with yearly sales
approaching $5 million up to $200 million according to publicly available
records. The surveys could also be completed online.
The survey broke down the businesses into the following industry categories:
27%
17%
19%
15%
12%
3%
6%
Service
Engineering and Manufacturing Wholesale and
Distribution
Construction
Retail
Food and Beverage
Financial
SRI interviewed 651 CEO’s (up from 592 last year) of private for profit
companies in Buffalo (30%), the Capital Region (24%), Rochester (29%)
and Syracuse (14%)
How is the Index Compiled?
New York
Current
Future
CEO Index
Industry
Upstate New York Business Leaders Index
2007 - 2012
Overall
Current
Future
120.0
100.0
94.8
103.0
97.9
92.8
86.4
79.2
80.0
103.1
98.4
93.8
94.8
88.9
82.9
78.1
77.7
76.3
60.0
46.9
39.0
40.0
31.1
20.0
0.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
The Index ranges from an absolute low of zero to a high of 200. If equal numbers of respondents indicated “better” and “worse” on a series of questions
the index would be 100. Therefore any score below 100 points demonstrates more respondents seeing and/or expecting things to worsen as opposed to
improve.
Optimistic
Business leaders in the optimistic group describe an economy in which they
see improved conditions and expect better days ahead. 73% expect
increasing revenues and 56% anticipate increasing profits. 63% will invest
in fixed assets and 41% will enlarge their workforce.
31%
Treading Water (Middle)
Business leaders in the middle group are treading water. They tend to feel
as though the economy is stable but do not anticipate improving
conditions. 39% expect increasing revenues and 25% anticipate increasing
profits. 53% will invest in fixed assets and 27% will enlarge their workforce.
45%
Pessimistic
Business leaders in the pessimistic group feel as though conditions have
worsened recently and expect further decline. Only 9% expect increasing
revenues and 10% anticipate increasing profits. 37% will invest in fixed
assets and 13% will enlarge their workforce.
24%
60
40
20
0
Upstate
Total
Industry Totals
Wholesale & Dist.
91.4
Service
100
Retail
Manufacturing
113.6
Financial
94.6
Food and Beverage
100
Engineering
120
113.8
95
89
82.7
80
Looking forward from today through next year... how would you describe your expectations for the economy in NY State?
40%
36%
10%
5%
0%
Upstate
Total
28%
28%
Industry Totals
Wholesale & Dist.
Engineering
15%
30%
Service
20%
29%
Retail
25%
29%
Manufacturing
30%
Financial
30%
Food and Beverage
34%
35%
Engineering & Construction Business Leaders Index
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Overall
41.2
84.4
98.4
87.0
86.3
113.6
Current
44.6
79.2
92.6
86.1
89.9
113.6
Future
37.7
89.6
104.2
88.0
82.7
113.6
Overall
Current
Future
Manufacturing Business Leaders Index
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
40.6
83.8
106.7 106.9
82.6
28.8
70.1
107.3 101.5
72.6
52.4
97.4
106.0 112.4
92.5
Siena College Research Institute
Overall
Current
Future
Food & Beverage Business Leaders Index
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
28.4
65.2
90.5
91.0
94.2
22.7
56.5
78.6
81.9
78.3
34.1
73.9
102.4 100.0 110.1
2013
100.0
104.8
95.2
Siena College Research Institute
Overall
Current
Future
Retail Business Leaders Index
2008
2009
2010
2011
28.6
93.2
101.5
98.1
22.7
82.4
91.4
88.3
34.5
104.1 111.7 107.8
Siena College Research Institute
Overall
Current
Future
Financial Business Leaders Index
2008
2009
2010
2011
38.5
88.6
113.4 109.4
17.3
84.1
108.3 104.7
59.6
93.2
118.5 114.2
2012
93.6
95.7
91.4
2013
113.8
117.1
110.5
2013
91.4
90.8
92.0
2012
80.7
76.1
85.3
2013
95.0
86.3
103.8
Siena College Research Institute
Overall
Current
Future
Service Business Leaders Index
2008
2009
2010
2011
46.5
89.7
92.9
99.4
35.6
85.5
91.3
93.9
57.4
94.0
94.5
104.8
Siena College Research Institute
2012
86.9
81.1
92.7
2013
89.0
88.0
89.9
Siena College Research Institute
Wholesale & Distribution Business Leaders Index
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Overall
36.0
86.3
88.2
95.6
88.6
Current
28.9
75.0
78.2
92.9
82.5
Future
43.0
97.7
98.3
98.2
94.6
2013
82.7
77.6
87.8
Siena College Research Institute
Now thinking specifically about your company, what are your expectations for revenue through the year 2014?
Grow substantially
Grow moderately
Stay about the same
Decrease moderately
Decrease substantially
NY Overall Results
Now thinking specifically about your company, what are your expectations for profit through the year 2014?
Grow substantially
Grow moderately
Stay about the same
Decrease moderately
Decrease substantially
NY Overall Results
Profit
60%
40%
Revenue
51%
45%
40%
40%
35%
26%
30%
32%
21%
20%
42%
38%
30%
30%
31%
2011
2012
2013
0%
2007
2008
2009
2010
Substantially increase
Moderately increase
Remain about the same
Decrease
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
NY Overall Results
70%
60%
58%
61%
62%
65%
61%
58%
59%
27%
28%
50%
40%
36%
30%
27%
19%
20%
10%
0%
Increase
Remain about the same
Decrease
20%
23%
22%
17%
12%
12%
2010
27%
61%
12%
2011
23%
65%
12%
15%
12%
6%
2007
36%
58%
6%
2008
19%
61%
20%
2009
22%
62%
17%
2012
27%
58%
15%
2013
28%
59%
12%
Intend to Invest in Fixed Assets
Yes
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
No
50%
Don't Know
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
How Will Assets be Financed
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Internally generated funds
Borrow from a financial
institution
Private equity
Not sure
NY Overall Results
And continuing to consider the local market, are conditions locally improving, staying the same or worsening for
businesses in your industry?
The Wholesale and Distribution industry believes
local conditions are improving the least at 6%.
Please indicate which of the following are major areas of concentration for your firm now and through 2014:
Expansion of existing markets
Growth in existing products
Entry into new markets
New product lines
Internal restructuring
Technology innovation
Acquisition of new businesses
Construction of new locations
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
CEO’s main area of concentration was Expansion of
Existing Markets (33%)
50%
60%
70%
NY Overall Results
Now thinking about other challenges that your company faces, which of the following are you concerned with:
Health care costs
Governmental regulation
Taxation
Adverse economic conditions
Rising supplier costs
Cash flow
Energy costs
Human resources
Existing U.S. competition
Risk management
Global political instability
Foreign competition
Ability to obtain suitable financing
Availability of equity financing
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
CEO’s greatest area of concern was Government Regulation (23%)
NY Overall Results
Thinking specifically about New York and the relationship between the government and
businesses like yours, overall would you say the government is doing an excellent, good, fair or
poor job of creating a business climate in which companies like yours will succeed?
State Government
Federal Government
NY Overall Results
Of the following, what would you like to see the Governor and Legislature of New York focus on?
Spending Cuts
Income Tax Reform
Business Development Incentives
Ethics Reform
Infrastructure Development
Other
Increasing State Revenues through consumer oriented taxes
(Vol) Reducing regulations
(Vol) Workers compensation reform
Don't know/Refused
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
CEO’s single biggest issue for the Governor and Legislature to focus
on is Spending Cuts (35%)
60%
70%
80%
NY Overall Results
For each of the following national proposals indicate whether you support it or oppose it?
79%
Reduce the Corporate Income Tax Rates
78%
Pass a Balanced Budget Constitutional Amendment
67%
Repeal the Health Care Reform Legislation
47%
Increase Federal Spending on Infrastructure
36%
Lessen Corporate Income Tax Deductions
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
NY Overall Results
If the Tax-Free NY plan were to be implemented, what type of impact do you believe it would
have on your business?
Positive
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Negative
50%
No Impact
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
How confident are you in the ability of the government of the State of New York to improve the
business climate for businesses like yours here in New York over the next year? Are you…
Somewhat confident
Not at all confident
Not very confident
NY Overall Results
Is there an Ample Supply of Trained Local Workers?
Yes
No
DK/Ref
NY Overall Results
Is there an ample supply of local workers that are appropriately trained for your employment needs?
Percent that Responded “YES”
Engineering
20%
10%
0%
Upstate
Total
Manufacturing
40%
42%
Financial
44%
30%
56%
48%
Food and Beverage
50%
55%
Wholesale & Dist.
51%
54%
Service
60%
Retail
68%
70%
Industry Totals
Technical skills
Professionalism
Work ethic
Verbal skills
Initiative
Realistic about compensation
Writing skills
0%
10%
20%
30%
Excellent/Good
40%
50%
Fair/Poor
60%
N/A
70%
80%
90%
100%
NY Overall Results
Poor
Fair
Good
Writing
Initiative
Realistic About Pay
Work Ethic
Verbal
Professionalism
Technical
1
2
Excellent
Hiring
Hiring: Workforce Ample
Writing Skills
Initiative
Realistic About Compensation
Work Ethic
Verbal Skills
Technical Skills
Hiring: Workforce Not Ample
1.0
1.2
1.7
0.9
1.2
1.6
1.0
1.3
1.7
1.0
1.3
1.7
1.0
1.4
1.9
1.0
1.4
Professionalism
Poor
0
1.3
0.8
1.1
Fair
1
1.8
Good
2
Excellent
3
Which Industry Sectors Will Have a Positive Impact on Your Geographic Area?
Technology
Medical
Education
57%
56%
43%
Manufacturing
Tourism
Green Energy
38%
Transportation
33%
24%
12%
NY CEO’s believe the sector that will have the single greatest impact is the medical industry (29%)
NY Overall Results
Suitable Workforce
A place consumers want to live
Transportation Infrastructure
Consumer Confidence
Area where businesses can succeed
Local government support for business
0%
10%
Excellent/Good
20%
30%
Fair/Poor
40%
50%
60%
70%
Don't know/Refused
80%
90%
100%
NY Overall Results
Do You Expect the Affordable Care Act to Have a Positive, Negative or No Real Impact?
Positive
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Negative
50%
No Impact
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
NY Overall Results
Have you made any of the following adjustments due to the Affordable Care Act?
Decreasing benefits to cut costs
Offering defined contribution health insurance
Hiring more part-time employees
Reducing the number of hours current employees work
Increasing benefits to retain employees
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
NY Overall Results
Panic is Over, NY is “Open for Business”
But, CEO’s ‘won’t get fooled again.’
2014: Slow cautious growth overall. Most optimistic poised to take off
Expect increasing revenues and profits with moderate investment
Soft Consumer Sentiment
Expect increasingLessening
revenues regulation?
and profits with moderate investment
Sorting through the Affordable Care Act
Soft Consumer Sentiment
Growth in and related to Medical
Concentrate on Tech growth
Soft Consumer Sentiment
Partner with Higher, Secondary Education to prepare workers of tomorrow
Combat Brain Drain with Quality of Life and the Quality of Local Opportunity
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