Typology of African economies and their potential for industrial

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Workshop on Industrial
Development and Globalisation
17 May 2011
Typology of African economies
and their potential for
industrial development
Milasoa Chérel-Robson
Africa Section, Division for Africa, Least Developed
Countries and Special Programmes, UNCTAD
Structure of the session
I.
Brief history of industrial development in Africa
II. Stylised facts about the state of industrial
development in Africa
III. Moving forward : typology of African countries
and potential for industrialisation
3-4 minutes per slide including class discussion and
questions
I.
Brief history of industrial development in
Africa
Key point: Lessons learnt from past policies
and their impact (or lack of) on industrial
performance in Africa.
I. Brief history of industrial
development in Africa
• Political vision of a modern, industrialised
continent after independence
• Past policy phases:
1960s-end 1970s: Import Substitution
Industrialisation
Early 1980s-late 1990s: Structural Adjustment
Policies
2000s: Poverty Reduction Strategies
Contribution of Industry to GDP 19702008 (%)
World
Developing economies
African developing economies
Eastern Africa
Middle Africa
Northern Africa
Southern Africa
Western Africa
Source: UNCTAD Database
% share of GDP
Industry
Manufacturing
Mining & utilities
Industry
Manufacturing
Mining & utilities
Industry
Manufacturing
Mining & utilities
Industry
Manufacturing
Mining & utilities
Industry
Manufacturing
Mining & utilities
Industry
Manufacturing
Mining & utilities
Industry
Manufacturing
Mining & utilities
Industry
Manufacturing
Mining & utilities
1970
36.88
26.70
3.87
27.29
17.56
5.67
13.11
6.25
4.81
3.12
1.67
0.83
34.23
10.27
19.11
34.21
13.63
15.70
38.18
22.03
11.98
26.70
13.28
7.65
1980
38.10
24.38
7.08
41.05
20.19
14.66
35.62
11.92
19.28
7.80
4.93
1.48
38.41
11.81
21.19
50.02
9.68
33.02
48.24
20.90
24.01
43.27
16.78
21.26
1990
33.25
21.74
5.17
36.80
22.39
8.87
35.22
15.31
15.16
20.56
13.37
3.33
34.08
11.19
18.88
37.40
13.39
17.15
40.63
22.89
14.32
34.52
13.10
18.81
2000
29.09
19.18
4.51
36.29
22.61
8.29
35.54
12.81
18.43
18.58
10.37
3.11
50.40
8.24
39.26
37.81
12.77
19.48
32.69
18.37
11.65
39.81
7.75
29.29
2005
28.77
17.77
5.46
38.86
23.32
10.05
38.78
11.59
22.98
20.60
10.31
3.63
57.88
7.25
47.87
44.97
11.26
28.16
31.71
17.94
11.18
36.66
6.00
27.72
2008
30.08
18.13
6.21
40.24
23.73
10.93
40.68
10.49
25.75
20.28
9.68
3.65
59.79
6.36
50.52
46.01
10.72
29.81
34.45
18.20
13.07
37.42
5.01
29.61
Selected lessons learnt from the past
• Linkages are needed between agriculture and industry.
• Interaction and coordination between the government
and the private sector is necessary.
• Political stability is a necessary condition for industrial
development.
• Sustainability is as important as initiating an industrial
programme.
• II. Stylised facts about industrial development
in Africa
Key points: a detailed outlook on Africa’s poor
industrial performance today.
II. Stylised facts about industrial
development in Africa (1)
• The contribution of manufacturing to GDP peaked
in 1990 and fell thereafter
• Africa still accounts for a very low share of global
manufacturing
• Manufacturing in Africa is small relative to other
developing-country regions and has been falling as
a share of both GDP and exports
Figure 1: Structural transformation of Africa's
economy vis-à-vis other developing regions
Figure 2: Structural transformation of Africa's
exports vis-à-vis other developing regions
Stylised facts about industrial
development in Africa (2)
• But progress has been made in boosting medium
and high technology manufactures.
• Africa is losing ground in labour-intensive
manufacturing sectors.
• Africa has very good performance in resourcebased manufactures.
Figure 3: importance of low technology
manufacturing exports and trade balance
Stylised facts about industrial
development in Africa (3)
• African manufacturing is dominated by small
firms
• African firms have weak technological capabilities
• Industrial clusters play an important role in
African manufacturing
Stylised facts about industrial
development in Africa (4)
• Informality is a feature of African manufacturing
• Manufacturing performance varies across African
countries
• Overall, structural transformation towards
manufacturing has been slow across Africa
III. Typology of African economies
Key points: Situating African countries in terms
of their industrial performance and their
potential for industrial development.
III. Typology of African economies (1)
Based on two indicators:
• The industrialisation level of each country
is captured by its manufacturing valueadded per capita.
• The industrial growth performance is
captured by the compound annual growth
rate of MVA per capita.
Typology of African economies (2)
African countries are divided into five groups
based on UNCTAD/UNIDO research.
• Forerunners
• Achievers
• Catching-up
• Falling behind
• Infant stage
Typology of African economies (3)
Typology of African economies (4)
Only 10 out of 53 African countries have
a relatively more advanced
manufacturing base
Top performing 15 countries
• 4 Forerunners: long-term sustained-growth path;
industrialization level at least twice the African
average; an industrial growth performance of at
least 2.5 percent
• 6 Achievers: dynamic but industrial growth
performance below 2.5 percent
• 5 Catching up: high industrial growth rates but
less than $200 MVA per capita
Visual classification of African countries
Next steps
• Industrial diagnosis and international
benchmarking per country.
• First step: government must collect all relevant
information in collaboration with all stakeholders
Thank you !
Source: recent joint research by UNCTAD
and UNIDO
Additional notes and references will be
provided in final CD of the course.
Download
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