Exposure to bisphosphonates and risk of non-gastrointestinal cancers: nested case-control studies Yana Vinogradova, Carol Coupland, Julia Hippisley-Cox SAPC 2013 , Nottingham Background Bone loss and bisphosphonates Laboratory linkages with reduced cancer risk Anti-tumor properties, accumulation in different organs Treatment for osteoporosis and cancer risk Reduced risk of breast cancer • • • • Chlebowski (2010) 1993-1998 Newcomb (2010) 2003-2006 Rennert (2010) 2000-2006 Vestergaard (2011) 1996-2006 No associations for other cancers • Cardwell (2011) 1996-2006 • QResearch – EMIS – 660 GP practices • Clinical Practice Research Datalink – Main (EHR)-IT – 643 GP practices Patient level data from GP clinical records Anonymised Longitudinal data for 20+ years Validated externally and internally Industry independent Methods: Study design • • • • • Nested case control study Study period Jan 1997 – July 2011 Aged 50 – 100 At least 2 years of records Up to 5 controls matched by – – – – Age Sex Practice Calendar year Methods: Assessment of Exposure • • • • excluding 6 months before the index date use: at least 1 script short-term (<12m), long-term users different types of bisphosphonates Methods: Confounding factors • BMI, ethnicity, smoking, alcohol • Osteoporosis • Morbidities (rheumatoid arthritis, diabetes, benign breast disease, GI disorders, hypertension) • Family history of cancers • Other medications (NSAIDs, corticosteroids, • acid-lowering drugs, • vitamin D, HRT) Methods: Statistical analysis • Multiple imputations • Conditional logistic regression • Combined analysis – Odds ratios + 95% CI – 1% significance level QRESEARCH Cases: 4.2% users CPRD exposed total 1304 24,489 Breast 460 26,554 Prostate 1035 17,961 Lung Bladder 274 7,464 Melanoma 241 Ovary Pancreas exposed total 1324 25,444 376 23,176 1114 19,059 Bladder 280 7,084 4,998 Melanoma 178 4,621 204 3,427 Ovary 170 3,088 178 3,593 Pancreas 196 3,485 Uterus 99 2,248 Uterus 96 2,149 Cervix 32 822 Cervix 35 739 Breast Prostate Lung Cases: 4.2% users Proportion of cases and controls exposed to bisphosphonates by index year QResearch CPRD 8 7 6 % 5 4 3 2 1 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 1998 2001 2004 Index year controls bisphosphonates cases controls etidronate cases controls alendronate cases controls risedronate cases © QRESEARCH 2011 version 31, CPRD March 2012 2007 2010 Any use of bisphosphonates and risk of cancer CPRD QResearch OR and 95% CI OR and 95% CI Cancer site, Cancer site, OR (95%CI) OR (95%CI) Breast, 0.89 (0.82 to 0.97) Breast, 0.95 (0.88 to 1.03) Prostate, 0.90 (0.79 to 1.02) Prostate, 0.84 (0.73 to 0.96) Lung, 0.97 (0.88 to 1.08) Lung, 1.12 (1.01 to 1.23) Bladder, 0.96 (0.80 to 1.14) Bladder, 0.94 (0.79 to 1.12) Melanoma, 1.05 (0.87 to 1.28) Melanoma, 0.95 (0.77 to 1.19) Pancreas, 0.81 (0.64 to 1.01) Pancreas, 0.78 (0.63 to 0.97) Ovary, 1.19 (0.96 to 1.47) Ovary, 0.84 (0.67 to 1.04) Uterus, 1.07 (0.79 to 1.44) Uterus, 0.95 (0.71 to 1.27) Cervix, 0.78 (0.48 to 1.27) Cervix, 1.21 (0.76 to 1.93) .5 .75 1 1.25 1.5 .5 .75 1 1.25 1.5 Any use of bisphosphonates and risk of cancer, combined analysis Adjusted OR's and 95% CI's Cancer site (N of cases) OR (95%CI) Breast (49933) 0.92 (0.87 to 0.97) P=0.004 P-trend=0.2 Prostate (49730) 0.87 (0.79 to 0.96) P=0.003 P-trend=0.005 Lung (37020) 1.04 (0.97 to 1.12) Bladder (14548) 0.95 (0.84 to 1.08) Melanoma (9620) 1.01 (0.87 to 1.17) Pancreas (7079) 0.79 (0.68 to 0.93) P=0.003 P-trend=0.02 Ovary (6516) 1.00 (0.86 to 1.16) Uterus (4393) 1.00 (0.81 to 1.24) Cervix (1560) 0.98 (0.70 to 1.37) .5 .75 1 1.25 1.5 Prostate cancer: long-term use of bisphosphonates OR and 95%CI OR and 95%CI QResearch CPRD OR (95%CI) OR (95%CI) up to 6 mths 1.11 (0.90 to 1.36) up to 6 mths 0.86 (0.68 to 1.08) 7mths < 3yrs 0.85 (0.72 to 1.00) 7mths < 3yrs 0.83 (0.69 to 0.99) 3yrs < 6yrs 0.77 (0.60 to 1.00) 3yrs < 6yrs 0.87 (0.66 to 1.14) 6years+ 6years+ 0.89 (0.59 to 1.33) .5 .75 1 1.25 0.77 (0.49 to 1.22) .5 .75 1 1.25 Prostate cancer: types of bisphosphonates CPRD QResearch OR and 95%CI OR and 95%CI Alendronate Alendronate P=0.004 Ptrend=0.009 overall use, 0.81 (0.70 to 0.93) 1yr or more, 0.75 (0.62 to 0.92) Etidronate overall use, 0.88 (0.75 to 1.03) 1yr or more, 0.86 (0.70 to 1.05) Etidronate overall use, 1.06 (0.87 to 1.30) overall use, 0.88 (0.70 to 1.10) 1yr or more, 1.04 (0.81 to 1.33) 1yr or more, 1.02 (0.77 to 1.34) Risedronate Risedronate overall use, 0.98 (0.77 to 1.23) overall use, 0.87 (0.66 to 1.13) 1yr or more, 1.09 (0.81 to 1.46) 1yr or more, 0.83 (0.58 to 1.19) .75 1 1.25 1.5 .75 1 1.25 1.5 Summary of findings Use of bisphosphonates is not associated with increased risk of any of the most common cancers • Decreased risk of breast, prostate and pancreatic cancers had no duration relationship in either database • Decreased risk of prostate cancer associated with alendronate use only in QResearch Limitations and Strengths • Residual confounding as no information – on stage of cancer – on any cancer-related tests – on bone density test • Information on prescriptions only • Missing data • Large sample size and representative population • Data electronically collected – unlikely misclassification bias • Data collected before diagnosis – no recall bias • All cases used – no selection bias • Data in the last 6 months before the diagnosis was excluded as might be misleading • Based on the most recent data Thank you Questions?