I PUNTI DI FORZA DEL NOSTRO PAESE di Marco For7s (Università Ca@olica di Milano e Fondazione Edison) Ambrosianeum Febbraio 2014 1
LA COMPETITIVITÀ 2 MORE DEBTS, MORE GROWTH, BUT UNSUSTAINABLE Source: compiled by Fondazione Edison on data from Eurostat 3 4 THE ACTUAL CRISIS OF THE ITALIAN INDUSTRY ORIGINATED FROM A COLLAPSE OF THE DOMESTIC DEMAND NOT FROM A LACK OF COMPETITIVENESS ON WORLD MARKETS 5 ITALIAN MANUFACTURING TURNOVER HAS FALLEN BECAUSE OF THE AUSTERITY Austerity effect 6 THE ITALIAN MANUFACTURING TURNOVER FOR EXPORTS IS GOING BETTER THAN GERMANY’S 7 The “country’s ins7tu7onal and infrastructural system factors” are the ones that more penalize the Italian economy, not the entreprises’ compe77veness Italy’s position in the ranking of the 60 economies covered by the
World Competitiveness Yearbook
Bureaucracy Collected total tax revenues Cost of capital Legal and regulatory framework Parallel economy DistribuEon infrastructure of goods and services Water transportaEon Maintenance and development of infrastructure Energy infrastructure Electricity costs for industrial clients Source: IMD, World Competitiveness Yearbook 2013
56 54 49 55 48 50 46 44 40 53 8 EMERGING COUNTRIES ARE MOVING UP, BUT ITALY’S MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY IS STILL THE SECOND IN EUROPE AND THE FIFTH IN THE WORLD 9 10 Trade balances in manufactured products: G-­‐20 Countries, Year 2012 2013 forecast 125-­‐130 billions US $ (billions of US dollars) 2012 (billions of US dollars) 2012 (billions of US dollars)
China
Germany
Japan
South Korea
866
394
292
205
Italy
113
India
Mexico
Turkey
South Africa
ArgenEna
-­‐8
-­‐20
-­‐24
-­‐28
-­‐29
-­‐34
-­‐52
-­‐60
-­‐81
-­‐99
-­‐130
-­‐140
-­‐146
-­‐610
France
Indonesia
Saudi Arabia Brazil
United Kingdom
Canada
Russia
Australia
United States
Source: compiled by Fondazione Edison on data from WTO 11 THE TRADE PERFORMANCE INDEX UNCTAD/WTO It is a composite indicator that ranks the 1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
compeEEveness of 184 countries in 14 world trade macro-­‐sectors, based on 5 sub-­‐indexes: Value of net exports; Per capita exports; World export shares; Markets diversificaEon degree; Products diversificaEon degree. 12 UNCTAD/WTO Trade Performance Index 2012.
Current index (*). Ranking of international competitiveness (189 nations).
Number of top 10 placings in the world rankings for foreign trade competitiveness in 14 sectors (§)
Number of Number of Number of Number of Number of Number of Number of Number of Number of Number of
best
second
third
fourth
fifth
sixth
seventh
eighth
ninth
tenth
positions positions positions positions positions positions positions positions positions positions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
13
15
16
16
17
17
Germany
ITALY
Russia
China
France
Australia
South Korea
Turkey
Argentina
Japan
India
South Africa
United States
United Kingdom
Indonesia
Canada
Brazil
Saudi Arabia
Mexico
8
3
1
1
3
2
2
2
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
(*) Sum of 5 sub-indexes: net exports, per capita exports, share in world market, product diversification, market diversification.
(§) Fresh food, Processed food, Wood products, Textiles, Chemicals, Leather products, Basic manufactures, Non-electronic machinery,
IT & Consumer electronics, Electronic components, Transport equipment, Clothing, Miscellaneous manufacturing, Minerals.
Source: compiled by Fondazione Edison on data from International Trade Centre UNCTAD/WTO
13 Position of G-­‐6 Countries, China and South Korea
in the ranking of competitiveness of the Trade Performance Index UNCTAD-­‐WTO
Year 2012
(ranking i n e ach sector worldwide; i n bold the placements among the top 10 most competitive countries)
Countries GERMANY ITALY
CHINA REP. OF JAPAN FRANCE UNITED
UNITED
Sectors
KOREA
KINGDOM STATES
Fresh food
27
37
48
85
88
19
43
7
Processed food
1
6
24
71
81
2
43
37
Wood and paper
1
26
38
49
50
29
36
25
Textiles
2
1
3
8
34
18
21
34
Leather products
14
1
2
44
86
11
18
38
Clothing
16
1
2
47
77
12
20
42
Chemicals
1
21
27
8
6
5
7
14
Basic manufactures
1
2
4
3
8
28
31
44
Non-­‐electronic machinery
1
2
5
11
12
10
15
23
Electronic components
1
3
43
21
8
22
27
36
IT & Consumer e lectronics
11
22
7
6
40
17
18
21
Transport e quipment
1
17
7
3
8
13
31
34
Miscellaneous manufacturing
1
2
9
40
10
22
27
23
Minerals
32
63
75
83
89
33
25
29
Source: compiled by Fondazione Edison on data from International Trade Centre UNCTAD/WTO
14 ITALY'S COMPETITIVENESS ACCORDING TO THE TRADE PERFORMANCE INDEX UNCTAD/WTO
Year 2012
(billion dollars)
Sectors
Position of Italy
in the Ranking of
Trade
Performance
Index
Value of
Italy's
Export
Italy's Net Trade
CLOTHING
1
16.5
2.2
LEATHER PRODUCTS
1
20.7
11.2
TEXTILES
1
12.2
4.5
NON-ELECTRONIC MACHINERY
2
84.8
53.0
BASIC MANUFACTURES
2
53.9
12.0
MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURING
2
39.0
11.5
ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS
3
23.2
2.7
PROCESSED FOOD
6
28.6
5.2
278.9
102.3
TOTAL 8 BEST SECTORS
Source: compiled by Fondazione Edison on data from International Trade Centre, UNCTAD/WTO
15 ITALY IS THE THIRD NET EXPORTER OF NON-­‐ELECTRONIC MACHINERY 16 NUMBER OF PRODUCTS IN WHICH ITALY HOLDS THE TOP POSITIONS IN THE WORLD TRADE
Fortis-Corradini Index, Fondazione Edison ©
(case study on a total sample of 5,117 products traded at world level)
Year 2011; value in billions of dollars
Italy's position in the trade balance world rankings
Number of
products
Trade balance
corresponding
values
First
235
63
Second
390
74
Third
321
45
TOTAL
946
183
Source: compiled by Fondazione Edison on data from Istat, Eurostat and UN Comtrade data
17 Italy is the second country acer China for the highest number of non-­‐food manufactured products with a net trade value higher than of Germany’s Source: compiled by Fondazione Edison on data from United Na=ons Comtrade, Eurostat, Istat 18
CONTI PUBBLICI E CONTI PRIVATI 19 EUROZONE PUBLIC DEBT AND ITALY'S "MARKET SHARE" Source: compiled by Fondazione Edison on data from European Commission 30 170 29 165 28 160 27 155 26 25 150 24 145 23 140 22 135 21 20 130 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Italy's public debt/Eurozone's public debt measured in euro (in %, lec scale) Italy's public debt to GDP ra7o/Eurozone's public debt to GDP ra7o (in %, right scale) 20 DURING THE CRISIS ITALY’S GENERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT IS THAT GROWN LESS IN MONETARY TERM AMONG UE COUNTRIES AND UNITED STATES AFTER SWEDEN’S Government consolidated gross debt
Millions of national currency
Ireland
Spain
United Kingdom
Finland
Portugal
United States
Netherlands
France
Austria
Germany
Italy
Sweden
2008Q3
2013Q2
71.376
400.870
689.069
55.616
119.377
10.024.725
276.610
1.289.913
174.380
1.633.873
1.653.905
1.226.559
204.495
943.410
1.422.213
110.125
214.801
16.738.320
442.324
1.912.205
232.801
2.146.830
2.076.182
1.460.859
pct chg 2013/Q2
compared to
2008/Q3
187%
135%
106%
98%
80%
67%
60%
48%
34%
31%
26%
19%
Source: Eurostat
21 Note: data for Greece are not considered because not comparable with previous data.
IN ABSOLUTE VALUE, THE PUBLIC DEBT OF OTHER BIG EUROPEAN COUNTRIES IS GROWING MORE THAN ITALY’S 22 PUBLIC DEBT HELD BY NON-­‐RESIDENTS IS GROWING FAST IN MANY COUNTRIES BUT NOT IN ITALY 23 ITALY IS AMONG THE FEW EUROPEAN COUNTRIES WITH GOVERNMENT BALANCE UNDER 3 PCT OF GDP Government balance, Year 2012 (pct of GDP)
Germany
0.1 Poland
Estonia
-0.2 Belgium
Sweden
-0.2 Denmark
Luxembourg
-0.6 Netherlands
Bulgaria
-0.8 Czech Republic
Latvia
-1.3 Slovakia
Finland
-1.8 France
Hungary
-2.0 Croatia
Austria
-2.5 United Kingdom
Italy
-3.0 Cyprus
Romania
-3.0 Portugal
Lithuania
-3.2 Ireland
Malta
-3.3 Greece
Slovenia
-3.8 Spain
Source: Eurostat
-3.9
-4.0
-4.1
-4.1
-4.4
-4.5
-4.8
-5.0
-6.1
-6.4
-6.4
-8.2
-9.0
-10.6
24 ITALY AND GERMANY HAVE THE BEST PRIMARY GOVERNMENT BALANCE
Government primary balance, Year 2012 (pct of GDP)
Germany
2.5 Lithuania
Italy
2.5 Slovenia
Hungary
2.2 Croatia
Sweden
0.5 Portugal
Bulgaria
0.1 Netherlands
Austria
0.1 France
Latvia
0.0 Denmark
Estonia
-0.1 Slovakia
Luxembourg
-0.1 Czech Republic
Malta
-0.2 United Kingdom
Belgium
-0.6 Cyprus
Finland
-0.7 Greece
Poland
-1.1 Ireland
Romania
-1.2 Spain
Source: Eurostat
-1.4
-1.7
-1.9
-2.1
-2.2
-2.3
-2.5
-2.7
-2.9
-3.1
-3.3
-4.0
-4.5
-7.6
25 IN THE LAST 2 DECADES, ITALY CUMULATED THE HIGHER GOVERNMENT PRIMARY SURPLUS OF THE WORLD IN THE MODERN HISTORY 26 27 28 29 CUMULATED GOVERNMENT BALANCE OF SELECTED COUNTRIES: 1996-­‐2013
(pct of GDP; Countries ordered by Government debt change excluding interest)
Countries
Primary Balance
Cumulated
Cumulated
Cumulated
Cumulated
Cumulated
interest
government
deficit
surplus
deficit
balance
excluding years
in surplus
A
B
C
D=(A-­‐B-­‐C)=(F-­‐E)
E
FINLAND
68.9
4.7
37.0
27.3
14.4
ITALY
47.8
0.8
107.5
-­‐60.6
60.6
BELGIUM
64.1
3.3
91.5
-­‐30.7
31.5
GERMANY
21.1
5.5
52.2
-­‐36.6
38.1
AUSTRIA
19.3
4.9
54.4
-­‐40.0
40.0
NETHERLANDS
35.4
12.9
52.8
-­‐30.3
34.0
FRANCE
4.9
20.1
50.8
-­‐65.9
65.9
PORTUGAL
0.1
31.1
58.0
-­‐89.2
89.2
UK
17.3
36.9
46.8
-­‐66.4
71.2
SPAIN
25.9
38.2
50.3
-­‐62.6
68.3
USA
22.5
41.3
56.2
-­‐75.0
77.6
GREECE
22.5
43.6
110.7
-­‐131.8
131.8
IRELAND
42.1
62.3
42.9
-­‐63.1
81.1
JAPAN
0.6
72.9
45.9
-­‐118.2
118.2
Source: compiled by Fondazione Edison on data from European Commission
Cumulated
surplus
excluding years
in deficit
F
41.6
0
0.8
1.5
0
3.6
0
0
4.8
5.6
2.6
0
18.0
0
Government
debt change
excluding
interest
G=B-­‐F
-­‐36.9
0.8
2.5
4.0
4.9
9.3
20.1
31.1
32.1
32.6
38.7
43.6
44.3
72.9
New debt
generated
by interest
H=E-­‐B
9.7
59.8
28.2
32.6
35.0
21.0
45.8
58.1
34.3
30.1
36.3
88.2
18.8
45.3
30 ITALY SHOWS ONE OF THE BEST GOVERNMENT «INDUSTRIAL CASH FLOW» AT THE WORLD LEVEL 31 SHORT, MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY
Risk classification in the 2013 assessment round
(Western EU countries, escluding Greece, Ireland and Portugal)
Low risk
Medium risk
High risk
Malta (0.41) Belgium (0.3)
United Kingdom (0.29) ITALY
(0.28) Denmark (0.24)
Short-term challenges:
Sweden (0.24) France (0.19)
S0 Indicator (early detection
Netherlands (0.15) Finland
of fiscal stress)
(0.13) Luxembourg (0.12)
Austria (0.07) GERMANY
(0.02)
Spain (0.45)
Medium to long-term
challenges:
S1 Indicator (fiscal
adjustment required until
2020 to reach a 60% public
debt/GDP ratio by 2030, in
per cent of GDP)
GERMANY (-0.3)
Austria (2.4) France (2.3)
Luxembourg (-1.5) Denmark (Finland (2.1) ITALY (1.1)
2.5) Sweden (-2.7)
Spain (6.1) United Kingdom
(6.1) Belgium (5.2)
Netherlands (3.1) Malta (3.1)
Medium to long-term
challenges:
S2 Indicator ( ageinginduced fiscal risks)
France (1.9) Denmark (1.7)
GERMANY (1.4) ITALY (2.1)
Luxembourg (8.6) Belgium
(6.9) Malta (6.8) Netherlands
(6.5) Finland (6.2) United
Kingdom (6.2)
Spain (5.6) Austria (4)
Sweden (2.4)
Source: European Commission, Public Finances in European Monetary Union 2013, p. 42
32 MEASURING THE PUBLIC DEBT: THE GDP IS NOT THE UNIQUE POSSIBLE DENOMINATOR. THE PRIVATE WEALTH IS ANOTHER ONE AND BY FAR MORE IMPORTANT Households net financial assets: Year 2012 (pct of GDP) Source: Eurostat 250 200 150 100 50 216 192 192 178 147 139 128 122 118 85 85 63 39 0 33 ITALY HAS THE SECOND PUBLIC DEBT OF THE EU IN PCT OF GDP, BUT ONLY THE FOURTEENTH IN PCT OF HOUSEHOLDS NET FINANCIAL ASSETS 34