Statistics on Same-sex Couple
Households from 2010 Census
Martin O’Connell
US Census Bureau
Presentation to
The Council of Professional Associations
on Federal Statistics
December 2, 2011
Topics
• Comparisons of 2010 Census estimates of same-sex
couples with recent ACS data
• Problems in estimating numbers of same-sex couple
households
• How we developed set of “Preferred estimates” to
account for data capture problems uncovered in the
2010 Census
• Comparison of original counts from Summary File 1
with the Preferred Estimates
Figure 1. Same-sex Couple Households: Census 2000 and 2010
Census Counts and Preferred Estimates
and ACS Estimates, 2005-2010
1,000
900
ACS form changed
2007-2008
Numbers of same-sex households
(in thousands)
800
349
700
600
392
386
341
500
132
150
253
152
152
400
300
553
200
341
385
394
413
415
429
2005A
2006A
2007A
2008A
2009A
441
2010A
515
100
0
2000C
Unmarried partners
C-Census A-American Community Survey
Spouses
2010C
Original
counts
2010C
Preferred
estimates
Figure 2. Percent of All Households Reporting as
Same-sex Couple Households, by State:
2010 Census and 2010 ACS Estimates
Percent
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.0
DC
VT
MA
CA
OR
NM
DE
ME
HI
WA
NV
NH
NY
RI
FL
AZ
GA
CO
MD
CT
TX
NJ
NC
AK
LA
WV
KY
VA
IL
OK
PA
UT
MN
IN
TN
MO
SC
OH
AR
WI
AL
MS
MI
MT
ID
KS
IA
NE
WY
SD
ND
0.2
2010 Census
ACS 2010
Note: States ordered from highest to lowest based on 2010 Census percentages.
Percent reporting Same-sex households
Figure 3. Percent of Households Reporting as Same-sex Couple
Households by Form Type:
2010 Census and ACS 2010 Estimates
1.0
0.934
0.9
0.8
0.773
0.724
0.667
0.7
0.6
0.518
0.5
0.4
0.322
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
All forms
Mail
2010 Census
Non-mail*
ACS 2010
•NRFU forms for 2010 Census and CATI/CAPI forms for ACS 2010.
Figure 4. Percent of Households Reporting as Same-sex Couple
Households by Form Type: 2010 Census
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
DC
VT
MA
CA
OR
NM
DE
ME
HI
WA
NV
NH
NY
RI
FL
AZ
GA
CO
MD
CT
TX
NJ
NC
AK
LA
WV
KY
VA
IL
OK
PA
UT
MN
IN
TN
MO
SC
OH
AR
WI
AL
MS
MI
MT
ID
KS
IA
NE
WY
SD
ND
Percent reporting same-sex couple households
2.5
All forms
Mail forms
NRFU forms
Note: States ordered from highest to lowest based on 2010 Census percentages for all forms.
Figure 5. Matrix-Based Format: Pre-2008 ACS Mail
and 2010 Census NRFU Form
Figure 6. Vertical Person-Based Format: ACS 2008+
and 2010 Census Mail Forms
How to Test Quality of Reporting Sex?
• Compare reported sex with likelihood of person’s name being the
same sex.
• Names Index=Number of times per 1,000 that name reported was
male.
–
–
–
–
Higher the index, more likely that person is male
Names like John or Thomas have high index
Names like Elizabeth or Virginia have a low index
Names like Tracy or Pat may have an uncertain/mid range index (1-2%)
• Names data base built during processing for that state.
• Names with no index value (about 15%) are those with:
– Less than 10 occurrences
– First name is left blank or has only one character
– No one with that name reported their sex
How the Names Index Works
•
•
•
•
Persons with index value 0-50 were likely to be female.
Persons with index values of 950-1000 were likely to be male.
Sharp drops in cell counts found in adjacent 50 point cells.
Couples who had either a female partner with a name at the
highest index value or male partner with a name at the lowest
index value were then considered to have incorrectly marked
the sex item on the question.
• They were removed from the population of same-sex couples
and a series of “preferred estimates” were produced for each
state.
Illustrative Example: First Name Indices for MaleMale Households in Texas, 2010 Census
(Numbers of reported partners)
Partner Name Index
Householder
0-50
Name
Index
51100
101499
500-899 900-949
9501000
NA
Total
0-50
35
4
36
90
54
1869
105
2,193
51-100
13
0
2
7
1
77
6
106
101-499
125
8
51
34
11
361
32
622
500-899
302
22
119
132
15
621
88
1,299
900-949
178
12
24
27
10
339
28
618
6,265
261
699
786
411
14,439
1,184
24,045
275
24
58
53
32
498
1,942
2,880
7,193
331
987
1129
534
18,204
3,385
31,763
950-1000
NA
Total
Percent with inconsistent names
Figure 7. Percentage of Same-sex Couples with Inconsistent
Name-Sex Reporting, by Form Type: 2010 Census
Map4.1. Percent
Percent of Same-sex
Same-sex Couples
Map
Coupleswith
withInconsistent
Inconsistent
Name-Sex Reporting:
Reporting: Census
2010 Census
Name-Sex
2010
AK
WA
MT
OR
ME
ND
MN
ID
WI
SD
WY
NV
CA
NE
AZ
DC
PA
IL
KS
OK
NM
MI
IA
UT
CO
OH
IN
MO
KY
WV VA
NH
RI
MA
NJCT
MD
DE
NC
TN
AR
SC
MS AL
TX
VT
NY
GA
LA
FL
HI
Percent of Same-sex Couples with
Inconsistent Name-Sex Reporting
6.3% - 25.8%
25.9% - 28.2%
US Average: 28.3%
28.3% - 38.1%
38.2% - 49.9%
Figure 8. Plot of Percent of Same-sex Couple Households Using
NRFU Forms vs. Percent with Inconsistent Name-Sex Reporting,
by State: 2010 Census
Percent of same-sex households with name-sex inconsistency
60
R= 0.837
ND
50
SD
MS
AL
MT
40
WV
WY
AK
30
20
10
DC
0
0
10
20
30
Percent of same-sex households using NRFU forms
40
50
Figure 9. Percent of Households Reporting as Same-sex Couple
Households by Household Type:
2010 Census and 2010 ACS Estimates
Percent reporting same-sex households
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.773
0.7
0.6
0.554
0.518
0.5
0.473
0.441
0.385
0.4
0.299
0.3
0.2
0.113 0.133
0.1
0.0
Total
Census summary file counts
Unmarried partners
Reported spouses
Census preferred estimates
ACS 2010
Summary
• Preferred 2010 Census estimates of same-sex couple
households closer to 2010 ACS estimates.
– Number in 2010 Census declines from 902,000 to 646,000.
• Declines occur for both same-sex unmarried partner and
spousal households.
– For unmarried partners 2010 preferred estimates still about 75,000
higher than the 2010 ACS. Possible Census campaign to encourage
same-sex household reporting accounts for some differences.
• Spousal household estimate most improved.
– Census 2010 preferred estimate of 132,000 compared with 152,000
from the 2010 ACS. Formerly Census count of 349,000.
– Very few actual spousal households in US (<50,000) so names
adjustment effect is greater for spouses than unmarried partners.
END OF PRESENTATION
Map3b.
2. Percent
Map
PercentofofSame-sex
Same-sexHouseholds
HouseholdsReporting
Reporting
with NRFU
NRFU Forms:
Census
with
Forms: 2010
Census
2010
AK
WA
MT
OR
ME
ND
MN
ID
WI
SD
WY
NV
CA
NE
AZ
DC
PA
IL
KS
OK
NM
MI
IA
UT
CO
OH
IN
MO
KY
WV VA
NH
RI
MA
NJCT
MD
DE
NC
TN
AR
SC
MS AL
TX
VT
NY
GA
LA
FL
HI
Percent of Same-sex Households
Reporting with NRFU Forms
12.0% - 23.1%
US Average: 27.3%
23.2% - 27.4%
27.3% - 31.2%
31.3% - 45.1%