Recent Economic Developments
Strong growth in exports so far in 2010.
Little change in standards for C&I loans to small firms over the past three months.
Poor sales remain the single most important problem for small businesses.
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30
Percent change from year-level based on nominal values
30
20
10
10.8
Based on January-April exports
16.9
13.6
10.6
13.4 13.5
11.5
20
10
4.3
0 0
-6.1
-2.7
-10 -10
-20
2000 2002
U.S. Bureau of the Census
2004 2006 2008
-14.6
2010
-20
Exports of goods and services rose 16.9 percent in January-
April 2010 from their year-ago level, a significant rebound from the 2009 decline.
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100
80
60
40
20
Net Percentage of Domestic Banks
Tightening Standards for C&I Loans
Loans to small firms (annual sales less than $50 million)
Loans to medium- and large-size firms
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
0
-20
-40
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
-40
Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices, Federal Reserve
The standards on C&I loans to small firms were roughly unchanged in
April from their January level (solid blue line in the chart above).
In addition, a small net percentage of banks reported that demand for
C&I loans from small firms weakened further over the past three months.
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40
30
First month of the quarter
Finance and interest rates
Poor sales
20
10
0
80 85 90 95
National Federation of Independent Business
00 05 10
0
20
10
40
30
Only four percent of owners report that finance and interest rates were their big problem at the start of the second quarter, according to the
NFIB. Poor sales remained their single most important problem.
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202-482-3427
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Figure 1. Jobs Supported by Exports of Goods and Services
Millions
12
10
8
7.4
7.8
8.6 8.8
9.3 9.0
8.8
9.2
8.5
2009 is a preliminary estimate.
10.3
9.5
8.9
8.5
7.8 7.6 8.0
8.3
12
10
8
6 6
4
2
0
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
International Trade Research Report no. 1: Exports Support American Jobs
0
4
2
Exports supported a record 10.3 million jobs in 2008, accounting for 6.9 percent of total employment.
6

Percent of total export-supported jobs
36 Manufacturing
Prof., business services
Transport & warehousing
Wholesale trade
Financial activity
Agriculture
Information
Leisure and hospitality
Government
Retail trade
Other industries
2
3
1
3
4
4
6
11
10
20
Percentages sum to 100
0 10 20 30
International Trade Research Report no. 1: Exports Support American Jobs
40
More than half of the 10.3 million jobs supported by exports occurred in two industries: manufacturing and professional and business services
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Figure 8. Export-supported Jobs in Manufacturing and Professional and Business Services
Percent of total jobs supported by exports
50 50
Manufacturing share of total export-supported jobs
40 40
30 30
20 20
10
Professional and business services share of total export-supported jobs
0
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005
International Trade Research Report no. 1: Exports Support American Jobs
10
2008
0
Manufacturing’s share of export-supported jobs has gone down modestly over time, while the professional and business services’ share has gone up.
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Figure 9. Shares of Industry Jobs Supported by Exports in 2008
Percent of industry employment
Manufacturing
Transport & warehousing
Agriculture
Wholesale trade
Mining
Prof., business services
Information
Financial activity
Utilities
Average for all sectors
Leisure & hospitality
Other industries 1
2
7
7
6.9
11
11
10
17
19
23
27
* % of total manufacturing employment
0 5 10 15 20 25
International Trade Research Report no. 1: Exports Support American Jobs
30
About 27% of the jobs in the manufacturing sector were supported by exports in 2008. Exports also accounted for a significant share of jobs in transportation and warehousing, agriculture, and wholesale trade.
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Figure 10. Export-supported Jobs in Manufacturing
Percent of total manufacturing employment
30 30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005
International Trade Research Report no. 1: Exports Support American Jobs
2008
0
10
5
25
20
15
Export-supported share of total manufacturing jobs rose to a record level in 2008 from the 1993-2004 average of 20%.
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Exports Support Jobs Directly and Indirectly
Share of export-supported jobs within mfg. and professional, etc. in 2008
100
80
32 percent supported indirectly
60
82 percent supported indirectly
40
68 percent supported directly
20
0
Manufacturing jobs supported by exports
18 percent supported directly
Professional and business services jobs supported by exports
International Trade Research Report no. 1: Exports Support American Jobs
Two-thirds of the export-supported mfg. jobs in 2008 occurred directly in the final assembly of the exported good. The remaining one-third occurred indirectly in the production of material inputs.
These percentages were reversed for the export-supported jobs in the professional and business services industry.
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Researchers have used widely different forms of economic analyses to demonstrate the relationship between exports and jobs. This study uses input –output (IO) analysis to measure the links for 1993–2008.
These snapshots reflect average (sometimes labeled accounting ) relationships . In IO analyses, if 10 percent of an industry output is exported, then 10 percent of the industry’s employment is attributed to exports. The averages tell us nothing about employment requirements for the first or last dollar of output.
Averages derived from IO analysis should not be used as proxies for change. They should not be used to estimate the net change in employment that might be supported by increases or decreases in total exports, in the exports of selected products, or in the exports to selected countries or regions.
The report is available at: http://www.trade.gov/publications/pdfs/exports-support-american-jobs.pdf
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