Dr. Bill W. S. Hung 1 Neoclassical Trade Theory: The Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem Basic Assumptions: 1. Two countries, two goods, two factors -- 2x2x2 mode 2. Identical technological in two countries Production functions are same in two countries 3. Constant returns to scale The sharp of PPC is unchanged 4. Two different factor abundance countries: Labor-abundant and capital-abundant And Two factor intensities commodities: Labor-intensive and Capital-intensive 2 5. Identical preference and tastes Two countries are facing the same utility functions 6. Perfect competition Goods market and factors market 7. Factors are perfectly mobile only within a country Factors are restricted to move across countries 8. No transportation costs 9. No restriction on trade 10. Increasing opportunity costs: The PPF curve is concave but not a straight line. 3 Factor abundance: Definition: K K ( )1 ( ) 2 L L Suppose: Country 1 is relative abundance of capital Country 2 is relative abundance of labor or Factor Price definition: w: r: L L ( ) 1 ( ) 2 K K labor wage rental rate of capital r r ( ) ( ) OR ( w ) ( w ) w1 w 2 r 1 r 2 The greater the relative abundance of a factor, the lower its relative price. Since Country 1 has relative abundance of capital, thus its rental rate of capital is relatively lower than its wage. 4 Relative Factor Intensity: Definition: Commodity S (steel) is a capitalintensive goods. K K ( )S ( )C L L Commodity C( clothes) is a OR L L ( )S ( ) C K K labor-intensive goods. Similarly in terms of factor prices: ( r ) w c > ( r ) w S OR ( w ) < r c ( w r ) S 5 L The Edgeworth Box: 0s K C5 C4 C2 C3 C1 S5 0c S1 K S4 S3 S2 L Contract curve: production efficiency locus (Increasing opportunity cost) 6 Country I: Capital abundant country Steel S0 S1 K2 C3 steel C2 S2 S3 PPFI C1 C0 Clothes L2 o clothes7 Country II: Labor-abundant country Steel S0 S1 C3 KI C2 S2 C1 S3 steel C0 Clothes PPF1I LI o clothes 8 YSteel The shape or pattern of CICs represent the aggregate consumers’ taste or preference E CI0 PX PPF 0 Marginal rate of transformation MRTXY (MRT) PY (autarky price) XClothes Marginal rate MCX PX MUX MRSXY Of substitution MCY PY MUY (MRS) 9 Combining two countries input space, output space and consumer preference: S K L I or L K I PI PPFI K or L II I* L K II II CI0 K PII PPFII 0 C L 10 Increasing opportunity cost incomplete specialization Different demand condition different autarky price ratio Classical analysis: Two countries with identical PPF or production condition are the same, there is no incentive for trade and of course no gains from trade. Neoclassical Even two countries have the same analysis production condition, but when the demand conditions are different the increasing opportunity costs would drive the two countries to trade. The different prices in autarky indicates that there is a basis for gainful trade between two countries. 11 Trade direction, incomplete specialization, and consumption S C A 0 CI1 CI0 I P P PW C Only when PW > PI, Country-I has incentive to reallocate the production from point A to point P and to trade with other country (world), and through exchange (import) to consume at point C. 12 The Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem A country will have comparative advantage in, and therefore, will export, that good whose production is relatively intensive in the factor with which that country is relatively well endowed. Labor abundant country (i.e., China) Capital abundant country (i.e., U.S.A.) Exports Labor-intensive products Imports Capital-intensive products Exports Capital-intensive goods Imports Labor-intensive goods 13 (A) Trade between two countries with Identical Demand & Different Production Structures: Country I: capital abundant The H -O Model Country II: labor abundant Good X-clothes: labor-intensive Good Y-steel: capital-intensive Good Y-Steel (PX/PY)1 C0 y3 C1 e’ I’s exports (Y) e1 CII’, cI’ y4,y2 II’s imports (Y) EII y1 (PX/PY)2 E’ PPFI 0 x3 I’s imports (X) x2,x4 PPFII II’s exports (X) x1 (PX/PY)3 Good X-Clothes 14 The H-O Model: alternative case: Country I: capital abundant (different consumption level) Country II: labor abundant Good Y-Steel Good X: labor-intensive (PX/PY)1 Good Y: capital-intensive e’ I’s exports I I’s imports e C’I C4 C’II C3 II’s imports C2 C1 E II’s exports (PX/PY)II E’ PPFII PPFI 0 II (PX/PY)3 Good X-Clothes 15 (B) Trade between two countries with Identical PPFs & Different Demand Conditions: Good Y-Steel C’ y2 (PX/PY)1 S2 PPFI I’s imports (Y) y1 E1 y3 S1 EI’, eI’ y4 II’s exports (Y) e c’ y5 W2 W1 PPFII (P /P ) X Y 2 0 x2 x1 I’s exports (X) x3 x4 x5 (PX/PY)3 Good X-Cloth II’s imports (X) 16 (C) No Trade between two countries with Identical PPFs & identical Demand Conditions: Y-Steel Community Indifferent utility curves A E CI2 CI1 B CI0 No Incentive to trade Why? PX PPF PY (autarky price) I,II 0 XClothes 17 Gains From Trade Good Y C I1 A I0 P PW 0 Good X Good Y 3 important assumptions: 1. No costs of factor mobility P* 2. Full employment of factors 3. No redistribution of income once trade A* C* I0 0 * I1 * PW Good X open (the different curves can show welfare changes) 18 Gains from trade and specialization Good Y E C: consumption gains (or gains from exchange) C’ C E E’ and C C’: production gains (or gains from specialization) CI3 E CI1 CI2 PX E’ ( P )’ X 0 PY Autarky price PY ( P )’ X PY World trade price Good X 19 Concept Check: Can you show that the production at less than complete specialization leads to a lower level of welfare than at complete specialization. 20 The Leontief Paradox Leontief statistic is defined as (K/L)M (K/L)X Leontief’s result were startling. He found that the hypothesized reduction of US export would release $2.25 Million worth of capital And 182.3 year of labor-time, for a (K/X)x of approximately $14,000 Per labor-year. On the import side, to produce the foregone import would require $3.09 million worth of capital and 170,0 years of Labor-time, yielding a (K/L)M of approximately $18,200 per labor-year. Thus, the Leontief statistic for the US was 1.3 (= $18,200/$14,000), Unexpected for a relatively capital-abundant country. What are the implications of the Leontief Paradox? 21 Invalid assumptions to Heckscher-Ohlin Model 1. Demand reversal 2. Factor-intensity reversal 3. Transportation costs 4. Imperfect competition 5. Immobile or commodity-specific factors 6. US tariff structure 7. Different skill levels of labor 8. The role of natural resources others 9. Income inequality 22 1. The Factor Price Equalization Theorem: Given all the assumptions of the H-O model, free trade will lead to the international equalization of individual factor prices.(The impact of trade on factor prices) 2. The Stolper-Samuelson Theorem: Free trade benefits the abundant factor and harms the scarce factor.(The impact of trade on income distribution) 3. The Rybczynski Theorem: At constant world prices, if a country experiences an increase in the supply of one factor, it will produce more of the product intensive in that factor and loss of the other.(The effect of economic growth on trade) 23 Factor price equalization theorem When home and foreign country trade with each other, the relative prices of goods converge. This convergence, in turn, causes convergence of the relative prices of factors. Before trade: (w/r)II > (w/r)world > (w/r)I (Country-I wage is lower) After trade: (w/r)I = world factor price = (w/r)II because the goods prices are equalized in two countries Example: When trade open between China and Hong Kong, Wages increase in China, Wage decline in Hong Kong 24 After trade adjustment in Country II (labor-abundant) case: Producer adjusts output due to relative factor prices changes. K (K/L)s1 K (w/r)1 (K/L)S0 IS0 IC1 IC0 (w/r)0 IS1 (K/L)c1 ( K/L)c0 (w/r)1 Clothes L Steel (w/r)0 L (w/r)0 (w/r)1 Increase produce clothes c Ic i.e., I When r, w 0 1 (labor-abundant) Decrease produce steel i.e., Is0 Is1 Both industries now employ more capital In Country II : 25 Trade Condition Pc/Ps (Pc/Ps)II < (Pc/Ps) < (Pc/Ps) I (Pc/Ps)I world trade price Pc/Ps (w/r)II < (w/r) (Pc/Ps)II 0 (w/r)II w/r (w/r)I w/r <(w/r)I Labor Capital abundant abundant country country One important assumption is market perfect competition But in real world it seems FPE theorem does not work well. 26 The Stolper-Samuelson Theorem With full employment both before and after trade, the increase in the price of the abundant factor and the fall in the price of the scare factor because of trade imply that the owners of abundant factor will find their real incomes rising and the owners of scarce factor will find their real incomes falling. In labor-abundant country: if price of labor-intensive goods ---> wage ---> producer of labor-intensive goods and labor income In capital-abundant country: if price of capital-intensive goods ---> capital rent ---> producer of capital-intensive goods and capital owner income 27 Steel PC ( PS ) II PC ( PS ) II < A to P : PC ( P ) World price S PC W PS P to T : A r PC W (PS+ t) r T P [Pc/(Ps+ tariff )]w Country II’s PPF 0 PC ( P )World price S Clothes Example: Tariffs can increase the trade prices. (From red to green line) i.e., production point shifts from P point to T point Policy implication: Producer of steel and the capital owner will gain from the tariff. (Pro-tariff or welcome any protection). Producer of clothes and the labor will loss from the tariff. 28 (Against tariff or reject any protection) Rybczynski Theorem: The effect of factor endowment change Example: The Growth Effects of Labor-Market Adjustment and Migration ---Labor Endowment moves out, PPF shifts in. Autos (PT/PA) (PT/PA) a1 a0 0 t1 t0 Textiles 29 Rybczynski Theorem: Labor endowment increases, PPF shifts out Autos (PT/PA) (PT/PA) a0 a1 0 t0 t1 Textiles 30 Exercise: One of the important changes in the world economy over the past three decades has been the rapid increase in capital investment in the countries of the Pacific Basin (notably Japan, Korea). What are the implications of this investment for the commodity patterns of trade of these two countries, say, with respect to the United States? Explain. (Hint: Think about Rybczynski theorem) 31 Invalid assumptions to Heckscher-Ohlin Model Case of Demand Reversal Steel Prediction of trade pattern from H-O model Country 2: exports C and imports S Country 1: exports S and imports C Now Country-1 prefers more steel But Countyr-2 prefers more clothes C1 Country 1’s imports of S CI11 Demand Reversal outcome: Country 2: now exports S and imports C Country 1: now exports C and imports S CI1 A1 0 P1 Country 1’s exports of C (Pc/Ps) world price CI20 CI21 P2 Country 2’s exports of S A2 PPF1 Country-1: capital abundant Country-2: labor abundant PPF2 Country 2’s imports of C C2 Cloth Steel: capital-intensive 32 Clothes: labor-intensive Case of Factor-intensity: No matter factor prices change, factor relative requirement ratio is always unchanged. If steel is capital-intensive, cloth is labor-intensive,then at any factor prices ratio, the factor input ratio is always (K/L)s > (K/L)c At (w/r)2 : K W ( r) 2 K ( L ) S2 ( K ( L ) C2 K ) > L S2 ( K ) L C2 K ( L) S1 F At (w/r)1 : ( G K ) > L S1 ( K ) L C1 K (L ) C1 A B Steel Cloth 0 W ( r) 1 Labor Steel: capital-intensive Clothes: labor-intensive 33 Invalid assumptions to Heckscher-Ohlin Model Case of Factor intensity Reversal K (w/r) 2 (k/L) C2 At (w/r) 2 : (k/L) S2 ( K K ) > ( ) L C2 L S2 F At (w/r) 1 : (k/L) S1 ( G K K ) < ( ) L C1 L S1 Steel B 0 A (k/L) C1 Clothes (w/r) 1 L 34 Question: Can you give any example of tradable goods that may have such factor-intensity-reversal problem? Exercise: Show in a graph to illustrate that factorintensity reversal can also occur of the two industry isoquants do not cross each other but are tangent to one another. 35