Motor Insurance Day
Sinaia, May 22nd, 2013
Presented by: Artur BOROWINSKI
Mio EUR (GWP, Claims)
.000 Pieces (registered cars)
MTPL – GWP vs Paid Claims period 2008 - 2012
Data source: ISC annual reports
Negative trend of the claims paid comparing to the GWP trend for the analyzed period:
- Steady increase of claims paid (gross), affected by the increasing of the claims
frequency and the negative impact of bodily injuries cases;
- At the end of 2011, GWP have decreased with 20% compared with the end of 2010.
For 2012 is forecasted that the premiums will be at the level of 2008;
- Compared with 2008 the paid claims have increased with 25%.
2
Top 10 MTPL players @ 12M 2012
12M 2012
Company
% change in RON
RON mn
12M 2011
Market share %
RON mn
12M
12M
2012
2011
1.
2.
3.
4.
ASTRA Asigurari
EUROINS Romania
Carpatica ASIG
Asirom VIG
-10.8
56.1
45.3
-25.9
410.3
392.1
261.4
227.6
445.5
234.0
174.1
297.6
19.1
18.1
12.1
10.5
22.6
12.3
8.8
15.1
5.
Omniasig VIG
-45.6
213.8
381.0
9.9
19.3
6.
GROUPAMA Asigurari
119.1
201.0
88.8
9.3
4.5
10.01
66.6
-23.3
616.9
6.04
6.06
174.6
161.0
66.9
47.7
2,156.7
2,159.5
153.6
93.4
84.5
6.4
1,968.2
1,970.5
8.09
7.4
3.1
2.2
99.8
100%
7.8
4.7
4.2
0.3
99.8
100%
7.
ALLIANZ-TIRIAC
8.
UNIQA Asigurari
9.
GENERALI Romania
10.
CITY Insurance
TOTAL TOP 10
TOTAL MTPL MARKET
Source :
-Insurance Profile 1/2013 (38)
Number of MTPL players in CEE, 2012
Source :
- Insurance Profile;
- Fondul de Protectie al Victimelor Strazii;
- NBS (National Bank of Slovakia)
3
Mio EUR (GWP, Claims)
CASCO – GWP vs Paid Claims - period 2008 - 2012
Data source: ISC annual reports
- Huge decrease by ca. 56% (2012 vs 2008) mainly caused by the
decreasing of the Leasing / new cars business;
- Very bad situation on the market: since 2010 the insurance companies
have paid more claims comparing to the written premium!
- Casco market is almost entirely controlled by multinational companies
which have lost a lot of money for this line of business
4
KPI MTPL business: VIG companies in CEE
2011 – 6M 2012
Claims frequency
2011
6M
2012
Avg paid material
domestic claim in
€
2011
6M
2012
Avg paid bodily
injury domestic
claim in €
2011
6M
2012
Average
Premium
in €
2011
(market)
VIG CZ
3.8%
3.6%
1,055
990
3,688
3,231
90
VIG SK
8.2%
8.3%
622
655
2,499
2,494
129
VIG PL
5.3%
4.9%
977
1,030
2,407
2,781
140
VIG RO
6.9%
7.4%
990
873
7,976
7,768
100
5
Source: Internal data
KPI CASCO business: VIG companies in CEE
2011 – 6M 2012
Claims frequency
2011
6M 2012
Avg paid claim in €
2011
6M 2012
Average Premium in €
8M 2012
VIG CZ
11.0%
11.5%
1,191
1,053
238
VIG SK
17.4%
18.4%
1,470
1,520
380
VIG PL
18.9%
17.7%
1,186
1,282
303
VIG RO
53.0%
50.4%
885
904
501
Foreign Exchange Rates used:
1 EUR = 24.319 CZK / Year 2011
1 EUR = 25.173 CZK / 8M 2012
Czech National Bank; online currency
converter http://www.currency.me.uk/convert
1 EUR = 4.1198 PLN / Year 2011
1 EUR = 4.2145 PLN / 8M 2012
National Bank of Poland;
1 EUR = 4.2379 RON / Year 2011
1 EUR = 4.3903 RON / 8M 2012
National Romanian Bank
6
Source: Internal data
Main problems in MTPL for 2010 – 2012
(Romanian market general)
•
Unsustainable MTPL prices caused by crazy competition (underwriting for cash-flow by
some companies)
•
Avg. price in total ca. EUR 100-110
•
Very low prices for trucks/ transport vehicles; offers for haulage companies even below
than EUR 1.000
•
Material claims are paid almost 100% to the repair shops;
•
Huge increase of Bodily Injury claims and Green Card claims; they represent ca. 4050% of the value of all claims incurred (in numbers represent only ca. 5-6% !!!)
•
Relatively high frequency >7%;
•
No automatic renewal;
•
Relatively high commissions;
•
Trends in Europe: higher protection toward the clients (replacement car etc.)
•
Great initiative of CSA/ ASF: to force the insurers to have the combined ratio <100%
(Norm 3/2013)
7
Main problems in CASCO for 2010 – 2012 (market
general)
•
The average premium for CASCO is decreasing due to the increase of the Romanian
motor fleet age and in many cases the tariff is based on the sum insured (premium rate);
•
Almost 100% payments to the repair shops;
•
Increasing of fraud cases;
•
No deductibles in many cases;
•
Extremely high frequency >50% and as result the highest prices in CEE;
•
Big problems with loss ratios for imported cars;
•
No real bonus-malus system and no mechanism for prevention in order not to insure the
clients with many claims
•
Only few information regarding the loss history for fleets.
8
Back-up slides
9
Calculation of MTPL premium (profitability exercise)
No
Item
1
Official police statistics for year 2011
2
No of family members to receive
compensations
3
No of claimants
4
Bodily Injury [BI] claim per person (EUR)
5
Value of compensations (4*3)
6
Deaths caused
by road
accidents
Heavily
injured
Total
2.018
8.768
10.786
4
-
-
8.072
8.768
16.840
10.000
10.000
-
80.720.000
87.680.000
168.400.000
No of MTPL insured vehicles (estimation)
-
-
4.500.000
7
Value of BI compensation per policy (5/6) in
EUR
-
-
37.4
8
Domestic claim per policy (average claim
EUR 1.000; 6% frequency) in EUR
-
-
60.0
9
Green card claim per policy (average claim
EUR 5.000; 0.4% frequency) in EUR
-
-
20.0
10
Claim per policy in total (sum[7,8,9])
-
-
117.4
11
Avg premium per policy with 30% costs
loading
-
-
152.6
10
Conclusions reg. profitability of MTPL business
•
A crucial and unpredictable point is the value of Bodily Injury claims, especially moral
damages which are not clearly regulated by the law;
– If we use the amount of EUR 20.000 as average compensation, the correct price is
ca. EUR 202
•
Of course the result depends very much on portfolio structure but the figures are
average rough estimations;
•
In my opinion, the correct average premium in Romania is in the range of EUR 150-200;
•
The self-regulation of the market is unrealistic;
11