Chapter 8 The Binomial and Geometric Distributions YMS 8.1 The Binomial Distributions Binomial Distribution Distribution of the count X of successes in the binomial setting with parameters n and p n is the number of observations and p is the probability of a success on any one observation The possible values of X are the whole numbers from 0 to n Denoted by B(n,p). Binomial Setting Each observation falls into one of just two categories, “success” or “failure” There is a fixed number n of observations The n observations are all independent The probability of success, p, is the same for each observation Binomial Calculations pdf probability distribution function which assigns value to single outcome X cdf cumulative distribution function which assigns value to range of X Be careful of calculator entries when finding greater than or at least! p445 #8.4-8.8 Vocab and Simulations Combination order doesn’t matter n choose k Factorial n! = n x (n-1) x (n-2) x 3 x 2 x 1 and 0! = 1 Use randbin(1, p, n) to give 1 p% of the time and 0 (1-p)% of the time Using Binomials Binomial Probability n k nk P ( X k ) ( ) p (1 p ) where the k coefficient is a combination Binomial Mean & Standard Deviation np np(1 p) Normal approximation to binomial distributions As the number of trials n gets larger, the binomial distribution gets close to a normal distribution Rule of thumb N(np, np(1 p) ) can be used when n and p satisfy np ≥ 10 and n(1 – p) ≥ 10 p454 #8.16-8.19 HW: 8.12-8.14, 8.26, 8.32-8.36 YMS 8.2 The Geometric Distribution Geometric Setting Each observation falls into one of just two categories: “success” or “failure” The probability of success, p, is the same for each observation The n observations are all independent The variable of interest is the number of trials required to obtain the first success Calculating geometric probabilities probability that the first success occurs on the nth trial is P( X n) (1 p) n 1 p probability that it takes more than n trials to see the first success is P( X n) (1 p) n Geometric Mean & Standard Deviation 1 p 1 p 2 p 8.37 and 8.40 HW: p474 #8.44-8.46 Review: p479 #8.55-8.56, 8.60, 8.62-8.63