Balanced Incomplete Block Design Ford Falcon Prices Quoted by 28 Dealers to 8 Interviewers (2 Interviewers/Dealer) Source: A.F. Jung (1961). "Interviewer Differences Among Automile Purchasers," JRSSC (Applied Statistics), Vol 10, #2, pp. 93-97 Balanced Incomplete Block Design (BIBD) • Situation where the number of treatments exceeds number of units per block (or logistics do not allow for assignment of all treatments to all blocks) • # of Treatments g • # of Blocks b • Replicates per Treatment r < b • Block Size k < g • Total Number of Units N = kb = rg • All pairs of Treatments appear together in l = r(k-1)/(g-1) Blocks for some integer l BIBD (II) • Reasoning for Integer l: Each Treatment is assigned to r blocks Each of those r blocks has k-1 remaining positions Those r(k-1) positions must be evenly shared among the remaining g-1 treatments • Tables of Designs for Various g,k,b,r in Experimental Design Textbooks (e.g. Cochran and Cox (1957) for a huge selection) • Analyses are based on Intra- and Inter-Block Information Interviewer Example • Comparison of Interviewers soliciting prices from Car Dealerships for Ford Falcons • Response: Y = Price-2000 • Treatments: Interviewers (g = 8) • Blocks: Dealerships (b = 28) • 2 Interviewers per Dealership (k = 2) • 7 Dealers per Interviewer (r = 7) • Total Sample Size N = 2(28) = 7(8) = 56 • Number of Dealerships with same pair of interviewers: l = 7(2-1)/(8-1) = 1 Interviewer Example Dealer\Interviewer A 1 100 2 235 3 50 4 133 5 50 6 25 7 140 8 * 9 * 10 * 11 * 12 * 13 * 14 * 15 * 16 * 17 * 18 * 19 * 20 * 21 * 22 * 23 * 24 * 25 * 26 * 27 * 28 * Interviewer Mean 104.714 Block Total 1331 B 125 * * * * * * 41 180 65 50 100 170 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 104.429 1497 C * 95 * * * * * 50 * * * * * 75 25 132 145 100 * * * * * * * * * * 88.857 1346 D * * 30 * * * * * 195 * * * * 95 * * * * 99 100 50 35 * * * * * * 86.286 1344 E * * * * 30 * * * * 75 * * * * * 50 * * 235 * * * 150 135 70 * * * 106.429 1542 F * * * 80 * * * * * * 100 * * * 55 * * * * 100 * * 163 * * 50 75 * 89.000 1246 G * * * * * 88 * * * * * 96 * * * * * 152 * * 50 * * 150 * 100 * 100 105.143 1285 H * * * * * * 150 * * * * * 150 * * * 96 * * * * 50 * * 138 * 65 89 105.429 1473 Dealer Mean 112.5 165.0 40.0 106.5 40.0 56.5 145.0 45.5 187.5 70.0 75.0 98.0 160.0 85.0 40.0 91.0 120.5 126.0 167.0 100.0 50.0 42.5 156.5 142.5 104.0 75.0 70.0 94.5 98.786 Intra-Block Analysis • Method 1: Comparing Models Based on Residual Sum of Squares (After Fitting Least Squares) Full Model Contains Treatment and Block Effects Reduced Model Contains Only Block Effects H0: No Treatment Effects after Controlling for Block Effects Full Model: yij i j ij i 1,..., g j 1,...,b (Not e: Not all pairs i, j ) ^ ^ ^ SSEF yij i j i 1 j 1 Reduced Model: yij j ij g b ^ ^ SSER yij j i 1 j 1 g b T est St at ist ic: Fobs 2 dfF N (1 ( g 1) (b 1)) rg g b 1 i 1,..., g j 1,...,b 2 dfR N (1 (b 1)) rg b SSER SSEF SSER SSEF df df g 1 R F SSEF SSEF df g (r 1) (b 1) F H0 ~ Fg 1, g ( r 1) (b 1) Least Squares Estimation (I) – Fixed Blocks Model: nij yij nij i j ij 1 if T rti in Blk j i 1,..., g ; j 1,...,b nij 0 otherwise Q n nij yij i j g g b i 1 j 1 2 ij ij b 2 i 1 j 1 g b set Q 2 nij yij i j 0 i 1 j 1 ^ g b n i 1 j 1 ij g ^ k ^ ^ yij N r i k j i 1 j 1 ^ y N y b set Q 2 nij yij i j 0 i j 1 a set Q 2 nij yij i j 0 j i 1 b ^ n j 1 ij g n i 1 ij ^ g ^ ^ yij y j k nij i k j ^ ^ 1 1 g kyi kr kr i k nij y j nij i k i 1 j 1 k k ^ i 1,..., g j 1 ^ ^ 1 1 g j y j nij i k k i 1 ^ b yij yi r r i nij j ^ ^ ^ i 1 j 1,...,b Least Squares Estimation (II) ^ ^ 1 1 g kyi kr kr i k nij y j ni ' j i ' k i '1 j 1 k ^ b ^ g ^ ^ Consider the Last Term: nij y j k ni ' j i ' j 1 i '1 b b 1) n ij j 1 y j Bi b 2) ^ ^ ^ n k k n g b ^ k r kr i ij j 1 3) Sum of Block Totals that Trt i appears in b ^ g b ^ ^ nij ni ' j i ' n i nij ni ' j i ' j 1 i '1 j 1 g Notes: (a) i 1 b g ^ ^ 2 ij j 1 i '1 i ' i g ^ i ^ 0 i i ' i '1 i ' i b ^ g ^ b 1 if Trts i, i ' in Blk j nij ni ' j 0 otherwise g (b): nij ni ' j l i '1 i ' i ^ g ^ ^ nij ni ' j i ' nij i i ' nij ni ' j r i l i ' r l i j 1 i '1 j 1 i '1 i ' i j 1 i '1 i ' i Least Squares Estimation (III) kyi kr kr i Bi kr r l i ^ ^ ^ ^ kyi Bi i kr r l i r k 1 l ^ ^ i l g 1 l i lg ^ ^ kyi Bi kQi i lg lg 1 Qi yi Bi k ^ Analysis of Variance (Fixed or Random Blocks) ^ ^ ^ Full Full Model: SSEF nij yij i j i 1 j 1 g b 2 ^ Full j ^ 1 g y j y nij i k i 1 2 ^ ^ Reduced ^ Reduced Reduced Model: SSER nij yij j j y j y i 1 j 1 Difference: SSER SSEF SST rt sAdjusted for Blocks g b g SST(Adjusted) k Qi2 i 1 lg Source df Blks (Unadj) b-1 Qi yi 1 Bi k 1 Bi Sum of Block MeanscontainingT rti k SS MS b ^ Reduced k j j 1 2 SSB/(b-1) g Trts (Adj) g-1 Error gr-(b-1)-(g-1)-1 Total gr-1 k Qi2 lg SST(Adj)/(g-1) i 1 ^ ^ ^ Full nij yij i j i 1 j 1 g b n y g b i 1 j 1 ij ij y 2 2 SSE/(g(r-1)-(b-1)) ANOVA F-Test for Treatment Effects H 0 : 1 ... g 0 H A : Not all i 0 TS : Fobs MST (Adj) MSE H0 ~ Fg 1, g ( r 1)(b 1) Note: This test can be obtained directly from the Sequential (Type I) Sum of Squares When Block is entered first, followed by Treatment Interviewer Example mu Interviewer A B C D E F G H ANOVA Source Blocks (Unadj) Trts(Adj) Error Total y(i*) 733 731 622 604 745 623 736 738 B(i) 1331 1497 1346 1344 1542 1246 1285 1473 df 27 7 21 55 Q(i) 67.5 -17.5 -51 -68 -26 0 93.5 1.5 SS 106244.43 5377.00 30030.00 141651.43 alpha(i) 16.875 -4.375 -12.750 -17.000 -6.500 0.000 23.375 0.375 Sum MS 3934.98 768.14 1430.00 98.786 SST(Adj) SST(Unadj) 1139.063 246.036 76.563 222.893 650.250 690.036 1156.000 1093.750 169.000 408.893 0.000 670.321 2185.563 282.893 0.563 308.893 5377.000 3923.714 F P-Value 0.5372 0.7967 Dealer 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Beta(j)Red 13.714 66.214 -58.786 7.714 -58.786 -42.286 46.214 -53.286 88.714 -28.786 -23.786 -0.786 61.214 -13.786 -58.786 -7.786 21.714 27.214 68.214 1.214 -48.786 -56.286 57.714 43.714 5.214 -23.786 -28.786 -4.286 Beta(j)Full 7.464 64.152 -58.723 -0.723 -63.973 -62.411 37.589 -44.723 99.402 -23.348 -21.598 -10.286 63.214 1.089 -52.411 1.839 27.902 21.902 79.964 9.714 -51.973 -47.973 60.964 35.277 8.277 -35.473 -28.973 -16.161 Sum SSB(Unadj) 376.163 8768.663 6911.520 119.020 6911.520 3576.163 4271.520 5678.735 15740.449 1657.235 1131.520 1.235 7494.378 380.092 6911.520 121.235 943.020 1481.235 9306.378 2.949 4760.092 6336.163 6661.878 3821.878 54.378 1131.520 1657.235 36.735 106244.429 SSE(Full) 1069.531 6091.320 96.258 652.508 5.695 1596.125 351.125 150.945 381.570 73.508 1040.820 504.031 306.281 294.031 148.781 3894.031 1929.758 126.008 7875.125 144.500 815.070 2.820 21.125 110.633 1868.133 354.445 53.820 72.000 30030.000 Car Pricing Example The GLM Procedure Dependent Variable: price Source Model Error Corrected Total DF 34 21 55 Sum of Squares 111621.4286 30030.0000 141651.4286 Source DF Type I SS Mean Square F Value Pr > F dlr_blk intrvw_trt 27 7 106244.4286 5377.0000 3934.9788 768.1429 2.75 0.54 0.0101 0.7967 Source DF Type III SS Mean Square F Value Pr > F dlr_blk intrvw_trt 27 7 107697.7143 5377.0000 3988.8042 768.1429 2.79 0.54 0.0093 0.7967 Mean Square 3282.9832 1430.0000 F Value 2.30 Pr > F 0.0241 Recall: Treatments: g = 8 Interviewers, r = 7 dealers/interviewer Blocks: b = 28 Dealers, k = 2 interviewers/dealer l = 1 common dealer per pair of interviewers Comparing Pairs of Trt Means & Contrasts • Variance of estimated treatment means depends on whether blocks are treated as Fixed or Random • Variance of difference between two means DOES NOT! • Algebra to derive these is tedious, but workable. Results are given here: 1 k 1 i i y yi Bi rg lg lg ^ ^ ^ 2 ^ ^ ^ ^ 2k V i j V i j lg g 2kMSE g (r 1) (b 1) C lg 2 Bonferroni' s Bij t / 2C , ^ ^ ^ 2kMSE V i j lg ^ g ^ For generalContrast: wi i i 1 2 ^ k a 2 V wi lg i 1 Car Pricing Example g 8 r 7 k 2 l 1 MSE 1430 ^ ^ ^ i i 1 k 1 1 2 1 y yi Bi y yi Bi rg lg lg 56 8 8 2 4 2 2 ^ ^ 2k V i j lg 8 2 ^ ^ ^ 2kMSE 1430 V i j 715 lg 2 Bonferroni' s Bij t / 2C , 2kMSE t.05 / 56 , 21 715 3.58(26.7) 95.73 lg g (r 1) (b 1) 8(7 1) (28 1) 48 27 21 C g ( g 1) 8(7) 28 2 2 Car Pricing Example – Adjusted Means The GLM Procedure Least Squares Means intrvw_ trt 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 price LSMEAN 115.660714 94.410714 86.035714 81.785714 92.285714 98.785714 122.160714 99.160714 Note: The largest difference (122.2 - 81.8 = 40.4) is not even close to the Bonferroni Minimum significant Difference = 95.7 Recovery of Inter-block Information • Can be useful when Blocks are Random • Not always worth the effort • Step 1: Obtain Estimated Contrast and Variance based on Intra-block analysis • Step 2: Obtain Inter-block estimate of contrast and its variance • Step 3: Combine the intra- and inter-block estimates, with weights inversely proportional to their variances Inter-block Estimate g y j nij yij k nij i k j nij ij i 1 i 1 i 1 g g 1 if Trt i occurs in Blk j nij 0 otherwise j ~ N 0, k 2 2 k 2 g k nij i j i 1 This is a multiple regression with g predictors which leads to estimates: ~ ~ y ~ g B rk i i r l ~ ~ wi i i 1 E MSE 2 g Bi nij y j i 1 2 2 2 ~ k k V r l g w i 1 2 i Ng 2 E MS Blks|Trts 2 b 1 b 1 MS Blks|Trts MSE N g ^ 2 Combined Estimate 1 ^ 1 ~ ^ ~ V V 1 1 ^ ~ V V where : ^ g ^ wi i i 1 ~ g ~ wi i i 1 ^ ~ V V 1 V ^ ~ V V 1 1 ^ ~ V V 2 ^ k a 2 V wi lg i 1 V ~ k 2 2 k 2 r l ^ i g ~ w i 1 b 1 MS Blks | T rts MSE Ng ^ 2 k 1 yi Bi lg lg i 2 i ^ 2 Bi rk y r l MSE Interviewer Example ANOVA Source Trts(Unadj) Blocks(Adj) Error Total ^ g df 7 27 21 55 ^ wi i i 1 ^ V SS MS 3923.714286 560.5306 107697.71 3988.804 30030.00 1430 141651.43 2 a k wi2 l g i 1 Interviewer A B C D E F G H alpha-hat 16.875 -4.375 -12.750 -17.000 -6.500 0.000 23.375 0.375 mu+alpha-hat 115.661 94.411 86.036 81.786 92.286 98.786 122.161 99.161 alpha-tilda -8.667 19.000 -6.167 -6.500 26.500 -22.833 -16.333 15.000 alpha-bar 11.767 0.300 -11.433 -14.900 0.100 -4.567 15.433 3.300 mu+alpha-bar 110.552 99.086 87.352 83.886 98.886 94.219 114.219 102.086 ^ 1430(2) V wi2 357.5 wi2 1(8) i 1 i 1 a ^ a 2 2 2 g ~ k k wi i V wi2 r l i 1 i 1 28 1 2 2 3988.8 1430 2(1430) g g ^ ~ 56 8 2 V wi 1436.2 wi2 7 1 i 1 i 1 ~ g ~ 1 ~ 1 ^ 357.5 ^ ~ 1436.2 0.80 0.20 1 1 357.5 1436.2 g g 2 2 357.5 w 1436.2 w i i g i 1 i 1 2 V 286.25 w i g g i 1 2 2 357.5 w 1436.2 w i i i 1 i 1