The quality of age data from some
recent Arab population censuses
First Conference of Al Khawarezmi in the
Arab States
Ismail Lubbad
Doha, 6-8 December 2010
Contents
Introduction
Census in ESCWA countries- An overview
Objectives, data source and methodology
Results
Age-sex reporting
Sex ratio with age
Age heaping - digit preference
Conclusion
Introduction
Importance of population census data
Stock data for population estimates/projections
Data for sampling frames
Only source of data on small areas (localities)
Long history of census taking in the
region
Quality of census data – rarely evaluated
Importance of age and sex data
Census taking in ESCWA countries
Table 1: Census taking in ESCWA countries
Sub -region
Census Round
1985-1994
1995-2004
2005-2014
Gulf Cooperation
Council countries
6
7
7
Rest of ESCWA
countries
6
6
3
Total ESCWA
12
13
10
Source: ESCWA calculation staff based on ESCWA counties information
Further information TF population census 2010:
http://www.escwa.un.org/divisions/main.asp?division=sd
Objectives and Methodology
• Objectives: To examine the accuracy of agesex reporting and the patterns of digit preference
in censuses of population in (ESCWA) Arab
countries.
• Source of data: Tables on age-sex reporting
from the two most recent censuses - NSOs
• Methods: Descriptive analysis – common
indices:
 UN age-sex accuracy index,
 Whipple-type indices
 and descriptive charts
Software: Population Analysis Spreadsheets (PAS)
Results
Table 2: Age-sex non-reporting in population census in
ESCWA countries
Countries
Bahrain
Egypt
Iraq
Jordan
Census Round
1990
0.1%
…
1.3%
0.11%
Kuwait
Oman
0.05%
Palestine
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Sudan
Syrian Arab Republic
United Arab Emirates
Yemen
0.03%
…
0.1%
…
0.00%
…
Census Round Census Round
2000
2010
0.00%
…
…
0.08%
0.30%
0.04%
0.05%
…
…
0.00%
0.35%
…
0.06%
…
…
…
…
0.25%
…
…
…
…
…
…
0.09%
…
Accuracy of age-sex reporting
• United Nations Age-Sex Accuracy Index
measures sex-specific omission of persons in
addition to age misreporting
• Based on 5 year age groups
Criteria of the U.N. INDEX
Under 20
→ Accurate
20 to 40
→ Inaccurate
Over 40
→ Highly Inaccurate
UN age-sex Accuracy index
Table 3: Results of UN Age-Sex Accuracy Index in
ESCWA countries (nationals only)
Age Ratio Score Sex Ratio
Sex
Age-Sex
Score
Ratio Accuracy Index
Males Females
Bahrain (2001)
4.6
5.9
6.4
102.3
29.8
Egypt (2006)
5.2
5.4
5.4
104.8
26.8
Jordan (2004)
3.2
3.2
2.4
103.4
13.7
Kuwait (2005)
3.3
2.2
3.5
97.7
16.1
Oman (2003)
5.5
5.7
4.1
102.2
23.4
Palestine(2007)
4.8
4.4
4.1
103.5
21.6
KSA (2004)
UAE (2005)
Yemen (2004)
4.6
4.3
4.6
100.6
22.6
3.7
6.9
5.1
8.2
5
4.1
102.5
104
23.7
27.5
UN age-sex accuracy index (cont…)
Sex ratio
1
sex ratio
2
UNI 1
UNI 2
%
changes
Bahrain
102.3
101.8
35.4
32.5
-8%
Egypt
104.8
104.8
38.4
37.4
-3%
Jordan
109
103
33.5
16.9
-50%
Kuwait
UN age-sex
Accuracy38.4
index
99.6
97.7
18.9
-51%
Oman
103.3
102.2
51.3
38.5
-25%
Palestine
103.5
103
25.8
18.4
-29%
KSA
102
100.6
49.8
27.9
-44%
Syria
104.7
105.4
16.5
16.6
1%
UAE
102.3
102.5
43.5
37.6
-14%
..
104
..
39.1
-29%
105.8
99.4
36.7
29.7
-19%
Yemen
Iraq
Patterns of sex ratio with age
Jordan 2004
115
110
105
100
95
90
0-4
10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74
Patterns of sex ratio with age
Oman 1993
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
0-4
10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74
Age heaping and digit preference
• Data required: Population by sex and
single year age
• Index of measurement: Whipple's index
Criteria f the Whipple's Index
<105
highly accurate
105-109
fairly accurate
110-124
approximate
125-174
rough
>175
very rough
•
Age heaping and digit
preference
Table 4: Totals of Whipple and Myer's
Indexes in ESCWA countries
Whipple Index
Myer's Index
Female
Female Both sexes
Male
Bahrain
Palestine
Qatar
Syria
Yemen
Jordan
Kuwait
Both sexesMale
100
101
100
1.76
3.39
2.27
104
106
105
2.11
3.50
2.79
102
102
102
2.98
3.03
2.58
105
107
106
4.70
7.46
6.04
249
271
260 43.46 51.26
47.19
100
101
101
1.86
2.94
2.34
105
105
105
3.74
3.13
3.44
Population Pyramid in Yemen 2004
Population Pyramid in Syria 2004
Population Pyramid in Qatar 2004
Conclusion – Looking forward
• Preliminary results - PC 2010 will enrich
the study and give a full picture;
• Improvement in age reporting in all the
countries
• No problems in age heaping except for
Yemen
• Age sex structure is considered inaccurate
in a number of the ESCWA countries
Thank You
lubbad@un.org