1
Review of Data & Modeling
for Revenue Allocation
1st Workshop for Expected Parties to PG&E’s
2014 GRC Phase 2 Filing
April 12th, 2012
DRAFT
2
Introductions and Overview
As part of the settlement, it was agreed that PG&E would hold two
workshops for parties to its 2011 GRC Phase 2 application, prior to
entering its 2014 filing
Workshops’ Objectives
• To agree on modeling requirements that will be used to develop positions for the 2014
GRC Phase 2
• To agree on methodologies and simplifications to increase the transparency of the 2014
Revenue Allocation and Rate Design model.
DRAFT
3
Workshop Agenda
Topic
Welcome and introductions
Presenter
Time
Dan Pease/
Mareijke Weidemann
1:30-1:45pm
1 GRC Phase 2 Revenue Allocation & Rate Design (RARD) Model enhancements
a Simplification of the RARD Model
Patricia Gideon
1:45-2:00pm
b
Alternative allocation results for miscellaneous revenue and
marginal costs
Patricia Gideon
2:00-2:30pm
c
Capping mechanism and alternative approaches to class
level capping
Patricia Gideon
2:30-3:00pm
Break
d Alternative approaches to CARE discount calculation
Using Smart Meter (SM) Data in Class Load
2 Research
3 Wrap up
3:00-3:15pm
Dan Pease
3:15-3:45pm
Zeynep Yucel
3:45-4:25pm
4:25-4:30pm
DRAFT
4
Items for June workshop agenda
•
Rate Design component clean up of the RARD
model
•
Customer Generation and its Impact on Diversity to
the Distribution System
•
Provide copies of RARD model for party review
DRAFT
1. GRC Phase 2 Revenue Allocation & Rate
Design (RARD) Model Enhancements
Discussion topics:
a) Recap of model flow- flow diagram
b) Simplifying the revenue allocation model
c)
Alternative allocation options for miscellaneous revenue and marginal costs
d) Class level capping mechanism
e) Alternate approaches to calculating the CARE discount
5
DRAFT
Revenue Allocation and Rate Design Model HighLevel Data Flow
6
Loads
Marginal Costs
Billing Determinants
Present Rate Revenue
Residential-Non Care and
CARE
Agricultural
Sm and Med Commercial
Industrial
Streetlights
Standby
Proposed Rates
Proposed Rate
Revenue
Feedback loop required due to the
iterative nature of the residential
CARE rates calculation.
Outputs
Inputs
Revenue Allocation
Rate Design
DRAFT
7
Simplifying the revenue allocation model
PG&E has made significant progress to date toward simplifying the
revenue allocation components of the RARD model for 2014
• Increasing uniformity of formats
o Outputs from generation and distribution marginal cost files will match inputs
from the RARD model
• Distribution and Generation EPMC multipliers
o
Calculated on a separate tab in the revenue allocation file
• Reduced number of separate files
• Elimination of duplicate data
DRAFT
8
Simplifying the revenue allocation model
More work remains to be done
• Consistent use of color coding will be applied
• Further reduction in the number of separate files
o Streetlighting files in particular
• Further elimination of duplicate data
DRAFT
9
Reduced number of separate files
Current
Consolidated
Loads_GRC
MargCost_GRC
MCRev_GRC
MCRev_GRC
RD_RES_GRC
RD_CARE Discs_GRC
RD_RES_GRC
Res E6 2011 GRC
Res E9 2011 GRC
RD_RES_E6-E9_GRC
Res E9 Off-Peak RD 2011 GRC
RD_SM_GRC
RD_MED_GRC
RD_CI_GRC
RD_E19-E20_GRC
RD_CARE_Discs_GRC
Proposed Rate Revenue_GRC
Summary_RARD_GRC
Proposed Rate Revenue_GRC
Model also includes the following files which have not yet been consolidated: Model_Master.xls, RA_ Rev
Alloc_GRC.xls, RD_AG_GRC.xls, RD_RES_GRC.xls, RD_STANDBY_GRC.XLS, Summary Prop
Rates_GRC.xls, Streetlight files.
DRAFT
Alternative Allocation Options for Miscellaneous
Revenue
Revised Phase 2 model includes 7 pre-defined and 3-user defined
allocators for miscellaneous distribution revenues*
Pre-defined allocators:
1. Equal percent distribution marginal cost revenue (default methodology)
2. Distribution system average percent (SAP)
3. Total revenue with DA/CCA imputed
4. Generation with DA/CCA imputed
5. Equal cents per kWh
6. 12 coincident peak
7. Top 100 hours
*Allocation methodologies may be selected from a drop-down box on the Dist_Alloc tab of the Revenue Allocation
file (RA_Rev Alloc_GRC.xls)
10
DRAFT
Current list of Miscellaneous Distribution Revenues
from the 2012 AET
Balancing Account Name
Balancing Account Name
Self Generation Incentive Program
Cornerstone Improvement Project Account
Environmental Enhancement
Advanced Metering Initiative / Smart Meter
Balancing Account
Hazardous Substance Mechanism
Customer Energy Efficiency Incentive Account
Non-Tariffed Products and Services Balancing
Account - Electric
Demand Response Revenue Balancing Account /
Air Conditioning Cycling
Smart Grid Memorandum Account
Dynamic Pricing Memorandum Account
CPUC Fee.
California Solar Initiative
Funding of E-BIP Discounts
11
DRAFT
12
Alternative Allocation Options for Marginal Costs
Two user-defined alternate marginal cost scenarios for each cost type*
•
Generation energy, generation capacity, distribution capacity and distribution
customer marginal costs
•
Marginal distribution capacity cost includes NERA regression option
Cost Type
User Defined
NERA Regression
Generation Energy
●
N/A
Generation Capacity
●
N/A
Distribution Capacity
●
●
Distribution Customer
●
N/A
*If additional marginal cost methodologies are agreed upon in the marginal cost workshops, PG&E will incorporate
those into the RARD model while retaining the user-defined options for each marginal cost type
**Marginal cost methodologies may be selected from a drop-down box on the Summary tab of the Marginal Cost
Revenue file (MCRev_GRC.xls)
DRAFT
13
Class Level Capping Mechanism
Principles underlying class level capping
• In addition to a cap on revenue, there should be a floor
• The cap/floor will be on the percentage change in class level bundled rate
• Revenue shortfalls arising from capping will
1) be applied to distribution component of revenue, and
2) spread using the Distribution EPMC allocator
• Before capping occurs, the currently applied "movement to marginal cost"
adjustment will remain in effect
DRAFT
14
BREAK
DRAFT
15
Alternative Approaches to CARE Discount
Calculation
Enhancements made
•
•
•
CARE discount and funding of CARE discount shown separately on Run
Model tab of Model_Master.xls file
All components necessary to balance model consolidated on one page
Balancing of model now automated
Responsible for content:
Items currently for inclusion:
•
•
•
•
• Workshop to focus on a review of PG&E
and Edison’s approach.
• Discussion to be invited as to the core
issues and possible solutions.
• Consideration to be given as to using
Goal Seek within the PG&E model.
• Pictorial representation of CARE rates
calculation to be developed.
Dan Pease
Nancy Breckenridge
Patricia Gideon
Hallam Stanton
DRAFT
2. Using Smart Meter (SM) Data in Class Load
Research
Discussion topics:
a) PG&E’s class load research studies.
b) PG&E’s current capabilities in making use of SM data in enhancing class
load research samples - Load research software (LRS).
c)
The impact of sample enhancement on the precision levels of the
estimated load profiles – Example: Enhancing AGA class load research
sample by including SM data.
16
DRAFT
17
PG&E’s class load research studies
PG&E carries out annual class load studies that produce
hourly load profiles by customer class at the system level
(CLASSKW Report), and also hourly load profiles by
customer class at the DPA (Distribution Planning Area) and
Division level (AREALOAD Report).
• The load profiles by customer class are estimated based on the profiles of the
customers in the load research sample for that class.
• For 2010 CLASSKW study, there were 5,955 customers in the load research
sample, where the sample data are collected from MV90 meters. 2010 CLASSKW
study included load research samples that converted from MV90 meters to Smart
Meters.
DRAFT
18
PG&E’s class load research studies
Example CLASSKW Profile – Average Residential, July 2009
Jul
2.5
2
Load (kW)
1.5
1
0.5
0
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
Time
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
43
45
47
7/1/2009
7/2/2009
7/3/2009
7/4/2009
7/5/2009
7/6/2009
7/7/2009
7/8/2009
7/9/2009
7/10/2009
7/11/2009
7/12/2009
7/13/2009
7/14/2009
7/15/2009
7/16/2009
7/17/2009
7/18/2009
7/19/2009
7/20/2009
7/21/2009
7/22/2009
7/23/2009
7/24/2009
7/25/2009
7/26/2009
7/27/2009
7/28/2009
7/29/2009
7/30/2009
7/31/2009
DRAFT
19
PG&E’s class load research studies
Example AREALOAD Profile – DPA E1, July 2009
July
90000
7/1/2009
7/2/2009
7/3/2009
80000
7/4/2009
7/5/2009
7/6/2009
70000
7/7/2009
7/8/2009
7/9/2009
60000
7/10/2009
7/11/2009
Load (kW)
7/12/2009
7/13/2009
50000
7/14/2009
7/15/2009
7/16/2009
40000
7/17/2009
7/18/2009
7/19/2009
30000
7/20/2009
7/21/2009
7/22/2009
20000
7/23/2009
7/24/2009
7/25/2009
10000
7/26/2009
7/27/2009
7/28/2009
0
7/29/2009
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Time
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
7/30/2009
7/31/2009
DRAFT
20
PG&E’s class load research studies
The load profiles are estimated from a random sample of customers
where the sample size is determined to ensure desired precision
levels. After a certain point, increasing the sample size does not
significantly improve the precision levels.
DRAFT
21
PG&E’s current capabilities in making use of SM data
in enhancing class load research samples.
PG&E has started making use of SM data in enhancing load research
samples in estimating class load profiles within the current systems.
PG&E is also using a Load Research System (LRS) software for
effective sampling and load profile estimation in carrying out future
class load studies .
• Some of the benefits of SM data and LRS software in carrying out effective class
load studies are:
– LRS software allows us to quickly assess the sample precision levels,
calculate how many samples are needed to achieve desired precision levels,
select customers to the sample, and estimate the load profiles.
– The availability of SM data enables us to effectively select samples
eliminating the dependency to the process of MV90 meter installation
– LRS software allows flexibility in producing load profiles by desired
stratification.
DRAFT
Load Research System (LRS) Software
• LRS is a comprehensive
SAS based software system
for sample design and
analysis in load research
and program evaluation.
The Load Research Life Cycle
Preliminary
Plan
Sample
Design
Analysis
Data
Collection
22
• LRS is designed around
the load research life cycle.
The system integrates
preliminary project planning,
detailed sample design and
analysis.
• Visualize IT, a companion
to LRS, a graphical tool,
enables quick validation of
load data, examination of
the the load profiles from
LRS, presenting results in
graphical and tabular forms.
DRAFT
Impact of sample enhancement on the precision
levels of the estimated load profiles
For 2011 class load studies, PG&E is using the Load Research
System (LRS) software to review the current sampling designs, to
assess the precision levels with current load research samples, and
to enhance the sample sizes with SM data to achieve desired
precision levels at the strata cell and class levels.
Example: AGA Sample Enhancement for Class Load Studies
# of AGA
# of Cust
Percent
Customers with SM (*) with SM
R-OuterValley
25,854
10,501
41%
S-InnerValley
14,879
5,015
34%
T-Coast
2,940
224
8%
X-Hills
7,501
2,293
31%
Total
51,174
18,033
35%
(*): Includes customers with complete 2011 SM data.
Climate Zone
Current AGA Stratification:
Class
Rate Schedule
AGA
AG1A
AGA
AGRA
AGA
AG4A
AGA
AGVA
AGA
AG5A
Usage
0 - 20 KW
OVER 20 KW
Climate Zone
R - Outer Valley
T - Coast
X - Hills
S - Inner Valley
23
DRAFT
Impact of sample enhancement on the precision
levels of the estimated load profiles
Example: AGA Sample Enhancement for Class Load Studies
AGA
Current (MV90)
LRS (MV90, SM)
Sample
Size
Precision
247
0.17
1,996
0.06
• There are currently 247 available MV90 samples with an expected relative
precision of ±17% at the class level.
• Enhancing the AGA class load research sample with SM data improves the
current sample size from 247 to 1,996 resulting in an expected relative
precision of ± 6% at the class level.
• In the future, with the availability of more SM data, our desire is to further
enhance the AGA class sample size to 5,700 as determined by the LRS
software to achieve the desired precision levels at strata cell level.
24
DRAFT
Impact of sample enhancement on the precision
levels of the estimated load profiles
Example: Sample Enhancement for AG5A and AG1A
1,456
Required
Sample
Size (*)
228
Existing
Sample
Size
7
Enhanced
Sample
Size
41
T
222
122
0
0
0-20KW
X
356
154
2
5
AG5A
0-20KW
S
682
194
3
67
AGA
AG5A
OVER20KW
R
499
175
5
8
AGA
AG5A
OVER20KW
T
50
42
0
0
AGA
AG5A
OVER20KW
X
65
52
0
0
AGA
AG5A
OVER20KW
S
240
127
1
9
3,570
1,094
18
130
Class
Rate
Schedule
Usage
Climate
Zone
Number of
Accounts
AGA
AG5A
0-20KW
R
AGA
AG5A
0-20KW
AGA
AG5A
AGA
Total
AGA
AG1A
0-20KW
R
13,811
265
68
265
AGA
AG1A
0-20KW
T
1,873
236
6
158
AGA
AG1A
0-20KW
X
5,267
257
10
256
AGA
AG1A
0-20KW
S
7,472
261
33
261
AGA
AG1A
OVER20KW
R
1,191
221
8
217
AGA
AG1A
OVER20KW
T
261
133
3
20
AGA
AG1A
OVER20KW
X
554
182
1
124
AGA
AG1A
OVER20KW
S
806
203
3
198
31,235
1,758
132
1,499
Total
(*) As determined by LRS to ensure ± 10% relative precision at 90% level of confidence at strata cell level.
25
DRAFT
Using Smart Meter (SM) Data in Class Load
Research
In Summary:
• For 2011 class load studies, PG&E is reviewing the current sampling designs by
customer classes, and enhancing the load research samples with the SM data to
achieve the desired precision levels in estimating class load profiles within the
current systems.
• PG&E is also using a Load Research System (LRS) software for effective
sampling and load profile estimation in carrying out future class load studies.
26
DRAFT
Wrap up
•
Set next workshop date
•
Next steps
•
Other?
27