Project management; Chapter7 Department of Business Administration FALL 2010-2011 Chapter 7: Project Management MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Outline: What You Will Learn . . . Discuss the behavioral aspects of projects in terms of project personnel and the project manager. Discuss the nature and importance of a work breakdown structure in project management. Give a general description of PERT/CPM techniques. Construct simple network diagrams. List the kinds of information that a PERT or CPM analysis can provide. Analyze networks with deterministic times. Analyze networks with probabilistic times. Describe activity “crashing” and solve typical problems. 2 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Projects JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN Build A A Done Build B B Done Build C C Done Build D On time! Ship Project: Unique, one-time operations designed to accomplish a specific set of objectives in a limited time frame. 3 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Project Management How is it different? Limited time frame Narrow focus, specific objectives Less bureaucratic Why is it used? Special needs Pressures for new or improves products or services What are the Key Metrics Time Cost Performance objectives What are the Key Success Factors? Top-down commitment Having a capable project manager Having time to plan Careful tracking and control Good communication 4 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Project Management What are the Major Administrative Issues? Executive responsibilities Project selection Project manager selection Organizational structure Organizational alternatives Manage within functional unit Assign a coordinator Use a matrix organization with a project leader What are the tools? Work breakdown structure Network diagram Gantt charts Risk management MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes 5 © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Key Decisions Deciding which projects to implement Criteria-attractive-cost and benefit-available fund Selecting a project manager Central person Selecting a project team Person’s knowledge and skills-relationship with others Planning and designing the project Goals-timetable-budget-resources Managing and controlling project resources Personnel-equipment-budget Deciding if and when a project should be terminated Likelihood of success-costs-resources 6 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Project Manager Responsible for: Work Quality Human Resources Time Communications Costs 7 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Ethical Issues Temptation to understate costs Withhold information Misleading status reports Falsifying records Comprising workers’ safety Approving substandard work 8 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Project Life Cycle Concept Planning Execution Management Feasibility Termination Concept: A proposal needed Feasibility: Cost, benefit and risk analyses Planning: find out the necessary human resources, time and cost Execution: control for time, available resource and cost Termination: It should be reevaluated for the sake of project’s safety MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes 9 © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Work Breakdown Structure Project X Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 10 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Planning and Scheduling Gantt Chart MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Locate new facilities Interview staff Hire and train staff Select and order furniture Remodel and install phones Move in/startup 11 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 PERT and CPM PERT: Program Evaluation and Review Technique CPM: Critical Path Method Both techniques are widely used for planning and coordinating large-scale projects. Using the two techniques, manager are able to obtain: Graphically displays project activities Estimates how long the project will take Indicates most critical activities Show where delays will not affect project 12 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 The Network Diagram Network (precedence) diagram – diagram of project activities that shows sequential relationships by the use of arrows and nodes. Activity-on-arrow (AOA) – a network diagram convention in which arrows designate activities. Activity-on-node (AON) – a network diagram convention in which nodes designate activities. Activities – steps in the project that consume resources and/or time. Events – the starting and finishing of activities, designated by nodes in the AOA convention. 13 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 The Network Diagram Path Sequence of activities that leads from the starting node to the finishing node Critical path The longest path; determines expected project duration Critical activities Activities on the critical path Slack Allowable slippage for path; the difference the length of path and the length of critical path 14 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Project Network – Activity on Arrow AOA Locate facilities Order furniture 4 Furniture setup 2 Remodel 1 5 6 Move in Interview 3 Hire and train 15 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Project Network – Activity on Node Order furniture AON Locate facilities Furniture setup 2 6 1 Move in Remodel 5 S Interview 3 7 Hire and train 4 16 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Network Conventions a c a c b a a c c b b b d Dummy activity 17 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Time Estimates The main determinant of the way PERT and CPM networks are analysed and interpreted is whether activity time estimates are probabilistic or deterministic. Deterministic Time estimates that are fairly certain Probabilistic Estimates of times that allow for variation 18 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Example-Bank Network convention The following table contains information related to the major activities of a research project. Use the information to do the following: (a) Draw a precedence diagram using AOA and AON (b) Find the critical path based AOA. (c) Determine the expected length of the project. Activity Immediate Predecessor Expected Time (days) a - 5 c a 8 d c 2 b a 7 e - 3 f e 6 i b, d 10 m f,i 8 g - 1 h g 2 k h 17 end k,m MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes 19 © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Answer-Bank Network convention Activities with no predecessors are at the beginning (life side) of the network. Activities with multiple predecessors are located at path intersections. Use first AOA b 7 S k h 2 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes 17 End 20 © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Answer-Bank Network convention Activities with no predecessors are at the beginning (life side) of the network. Activities with multiple predecessors are located at path intersections. Use Second AON b S k End h 21 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Example-Bank Network convention (b)Find the critical path based AOA. a-c-d-i-m*=5+8+2+10+8=33# a-b-i-m=5+7+10+8=30 e-f-m= 3+6+8=17 g-h-k=1+2+17=20 a-c-d-i-m*-Critical path (c) Determine the expected length of the project. 33 # -Expected project duration 22 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Example-Bank Network Figure Bank Network question 8 weeks 6 weeks 4 3 weeks 2 11 weeks 1 5 Move in 6 1 week 4 weeks 9 weeks 3 23 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Example-Bank Network Figure Given the information on the bank network: Determine The length of each path The critical path The expected length of the project The amount of slack time for each path Knowledge of slack times provides managers with information for planning allocation of scarce resources and for directing control efforts toward those activities that may be most susceptible to delaying the project. 24 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Answer-Bank Network Figure Critical Path Path Length Slack (weeks) 1-2-3-4-5-6 1-2-5-6 1-3-5-6 18 20 14 2 0 6 25 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Computing Algorithm Network activities ES: early start EF: early finish-EF=ES+t LS: late start-LS=LF-t LF: late finish Used to determine ES t LS ES t EF LF EF Expected project duration Slack time-LS-ES or LF-EF Critical path 26 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Example-ES-EF-LS-LF-slack Required: Compute slack time, ES, EF, LS and LF 4 Forward pass 2 ES t EF 19 1 20 1 5 6 LS ES t EF: early finish-EF=ES+t LS: late start-LS=LF-t Slack time-LS-ES or LF-EF 3 LF EF Backward pass 27 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Answer-ES-EF-LS-LF-slack Forward pass 10 8 2 0 0 0 8 8 8 6 4 10 4 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes 3 EF 4 16 14 2 8 11 8 0 EF: early finish-EF=ES+t LS: late start-LS=LF-t Slack time-LS-ES or LF-EF ES t 2 1 6 0 6 16 14 19 19 10 4 6 3 19 17 19 1 20 5 9 19 13 6 19 19 0 1 20 20 ES t LS EF LF Backward pass 28 © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Probabilistic Time Estimates Optimistic time Time required under optimal conditions Pessimistic time Time required under worst conditions Most likely time Most probable length of time that will be required 29 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Probabilistic Estimates Beta Distribution is generally used to describe the inherent variability in time Estimates. Although there is no real theoretical justification for using the Beta Distribution, it has certain features that make it attractive in practice. to Activity start tm Optimistic time te Most likely time (mode) tp Pessimistic time 30 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Expected Time te t + 4t +t o m p = 6 te = expected time to = optimistic time tm = most likely time tp = pessimistic time The knowledge of the expected path times and their std. Deviation enables a manager to compute probabilistic estimates of the project completion time as such specific time and scheduled time MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes 31 © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Variance 2 2 (t – t ) = p o 36 2 = variance to = optimistic time tp = pessimistic time The size of Variance reflects the degree of uncertainty associated with an activity’s time: The large the variance, the greater the uncertainty. 32 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Example-Probabilistic Time Estimates Given the following diagram: Optimistic Compute time The expected time The expected duration Identify the critical path The variance The std. deviation 3-4-5 d Most likely time Pessimistic time 2-4-6 b 3-5-7 e 5-7-9 f 4-6-8 h 33 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Answer-Probabilistic Time Estimates 34 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Answer-Probabilistic Time Estimates Tabc = 10.0 Tdef = 16.0 Tghi = 13.50 4.00 b 4.00 d 5.0 e 7.0 f 6.0 h 35 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Path Probabilities Z = Specified time – Path mean Path standard deviation Z indicates how many standard deviations of the path distribution the specified time is beyond the expected path duration. The more positive the value, the better. A negative value of z indicates that the specified time is earlier than the expected path duration. Z=+3.00-probability 100% From the relevant table +3.00 is almost equal to 0.9987. 36 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Example-The Path probability Given the information on the example of probabilistic time estimates (the previous example): Determine The probability that the project can be completed within 17 weeks of its start. The probability that the project will be completed within 15 weeks of its start. The probability that the project will not be completed within 15 weeks of its start. 37 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Answer-The Path probability Determine The probability that the project can be completed within 17 weeks of its start. Path: a-b-c 17 – 10 Z = 0.97 =7.22 Determine Prob.comp in 17 week=1.00 Appendix B, Table B, p.p 884/5 The probability that the project will be completed within 17 weeks of its start. Path: d-e-f 17 – 16 =1 Z = 1 Prob.comp in 17 week=0.8413 Appendix B, Table B, p.p 885 38 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Answer-The Path probability Determine The probability that the project will be completed within 17 weeks of its start. Path: g-h-i Z = 17 – 13.5 =3.27 1.07 Prob.comp in 17 week=1.00 Appendix B, Table B, p.p 884/5 Prob finish in 17 week=1.00 X 0.8413 X 1.00= 0.8413 39 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Answer-The Path probability Determine The probability that the project can be completed within 15 weeks of its start. Path: a-b-c 15 – 10 Z = 0.97 Determine =5.15 Prob.comp in 15 week=1.00 Appendix B, Table B, p.p 884/5 The probability that the project will be completed within 15 weeks of its start. Path: d-e-f 15 – 16 =-1.00 Prob.comp in 15 week=0.1587 Z = 1 Appendix B, Table B, p.p 885 40 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Answer-The Path probability Determine The probability that the project will be completed within 15 weeks of its start. Path: g-h-i Z = 15 – 13.5 =1.40 1.07 Prob.comp in 15 week=0.9192 Appendix B, Table B, p.p 884/5 Prob finish in 15 week=1.00 X 0.1587 X 0.9192= 0.1459 The probability that the project will not be completed within 15 weeks of its start: 1- 0.1459=0.8541 41 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Answer-The Path probability-Graphically 17 Weeks 1.00 a-b-c Weeks 10.0 0.8413 d-e-f 16.0 Weeks 1.00 g-h-i 13.5 Weeks 42 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Answer-The Path probability-Graphically 15 Weeks 1.00 a-b-c 10.0 Weeks 0.1587 d-e-f 16.0 Weeks 0.9192 g-h-i 13.5 Weeks 43 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Time-cost Trade-offs: Crashing In many projects, it is possible to reduce the length of a project by injecting additional resources. The impetus to shorten projects may reflect efforts to avoid late penalties, or/ to take advantage of monetary incentives for timely completion of a project, or/ to free resources for use on other projects. This is called crashing. Crash – briefly, shortening activity duration Procedure for crashing Crash the project one period at a time Only an activity on the critical path Crash the least expensive activity Multiple critical paths: find the sum of crashing the least expensive activity on each critical path 44 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Time-Cost Trade-Offs: Crashing Total cost Expected indirect costs Shorten CRASH Cumulative (direct) cost of crashing Shorten Optimum 45 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Example-Crashing Using the following information, develop the optimal time cost solution. Indirect costs are $ 1000 per day. (a) Determine which activities are on the critical path, its length, and the length of the other path (b) Rank the critical activities in order of lowest crashing cost, and datermine the number of days each can be crashed. (c) Determine the critical path after each reduction by shortening the project. Activity Immediate predecessor Normal time Crash time Cost per day to crash a - 6 6 c - 10 8 $500 d c 5 4 300 b a 4 1 700 e d 9 7 600 f b,e 2 1 800 46 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 (a) Determine the critical path. 2 f 4 d 47 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Answer-Crashing (a) Determine which activities are on the critical path, its length, and the length of the other path Path length a-b-f 18 c-d-e-f 20 (critical path) (b) Rank the critical activities in order of lowest crashing cost, and datermine the number of days each can be crashed. Activity Cost per day to crash Available days c $ 300 1 e 600 2 d 700 3 f 800 1 48 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Answer-Crashing (c) Determine the critical path after each reduction by shortening the project. (1) Shorten activity c one day at a cost of $ 300. The length of the critical path becomes 19 days. (2) Activity c cannot be shorten any more. Shorten activity e one day at cost of $ 600. The length of the critical path c-d-e-f becomes 18 days which is the same as length of path a-b-f. (3) The path are now both critical, further improvement will necesitate shortening both paths. Path Activity Cost per day to crash a-b-f a no reduction possible b $ 500 f 800 c-d-e-f c no further reduction possible d $ 700 e 600 f 800 49 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Answer-Crashing At the first glance, it would seem that crashing f would not be advantageous, because it has the highest crashing cost. However, f is on both paths, so shortening f by one day would shorten both paths by one day for a cost of $ 800. The option of shortening the least expensive activity on each path would cost $ 500 for b and $ 600 for e or $ 1100. Thus shorten f by one day. The project duration is now 17 days. (4) At this point, no additional improvement is feasible. The cost to crash b is $ 500 and the cost to crash e is $ 600, for a total of $ 1100 and that would exceed the indirect costs of $ 100 per day. (5) The crashing sequence is summarized below: Length after crashing n days Path n=0 1 2 3 a-b-f 18 18 18 17 c-d-e-f 20 19 18 activity crashed c e cost $300 600 17 f 800 50 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Advantages of PERT Forces managers to organize Provides graphic display of activities Identifies Critical activities Slack activities 4 2 1 5 6 3 51 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Limitations of PERT Important activities may be omitted Precedence relationships may not be correct Estimates may include a fudge factor 4 May focus solely on critical path 2 1 5 6 142 weeks 3 52 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved. Project Management; Chapter7 Thanks 53 MGMT 405, POM, 2010/11. Lec Notes © Stevenson, McGraw Hill, 2007- Assoc. Prof. Sami Fethi, EMU, All Right Reserved.