Macro-Economic Overview as Presented by the Minister of Finance

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Quarterly Review Presented by the Minister
of Finance for the Finance Committee
Macro-Economic Review
Ministry of Finance
May 2012
Y2011 - Summary
Growth
4.8%
Unemployment*
Income from taxes
5.6% / 7.0%
(NIS Billion)
Deficit (percentage of product)
Debt (percentage of product)
211.3
3.3%
74.2%
*Recently The Central Bureau of Statistics changed the method of surveying human
resources - as a result the unemployment rates slightly increased.
2
Growth Trends in Unemployment
for Israel and Worldwide (Percentage)
2008-2012
11
2008
2009
2010
2012
2011
10
9
8
7
6
5
USA
The EUR Block (17 countries)
2012 – Based on the latest published data
3
Israel
The Labor Market – Q1 2012
February 2012
March 2012
6.5%
6.9%
Participation rate
62.2%
63.0%
Number of employed
(in thousands)
3,276
3,312
Calculated rate of
unemployment*
6.5%
5.6%
Number of available positions
(in thousands)
57.4
68.8
Unemployment rate
* Rate of unemployment assuming the participation rate is 62.2%
4
Forecast for 2012
Growth
3.2%
Income from taxes
221
(NIS Billion)
Deficit
Debt
(Percentage of product)
(Percentage of product)
5
3.4%
73.8%
Forecast of the
International Monetary Fund
Rate of Product Growth
Global Economy
The Unites States
The EUR Block
2012
2013
3.5%
4.1%
)+0.2%(
)+0.1%(
2.1%
2.4%
)+0.3%(
)+0.2%(
-0.3%
0.9%
)+0.2%(
)+0.1%(
In parenthesis – the change in the Fund’s forecast in percentage points compared
to January 2012
6
The S&P Rating
Israel and Western Europe 2011-2012
Country
Present Rating
Change in the Rating
Austria
+AA
Italy
+BBB
Ireland
+BBB
Belgium
AA
United Kingdom
AAA
=
Germany
AAA
=
The Netherlands
AAA
=
Greece
CC
Israel
+A
Spain
+BBB
X5
Portugal
BB
X5
France
+AA
Sweden
AAA
X4
X12
=
*Arrows represent improvement or decline in rating
7
Increase in Investments
2008 - 2011
Investments increased by 33%
during the years 2010-2011
8
The Growth Rate for 2011
Main Sectors
30.0%
24.6%
25.0%
20.0%
17.0%
16.7%
15.0%
10.5%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Total
Construction
Non-tangible Assets
9
Machinery, Equipment
& Vehicles
Growth – International Comparison
2011
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
5.9%
4.8%
3.6%
3.1%
2.7%
2.0%
2%
1.7%
1.7%
0.7%
1%
0%
-1%
-0.7%
-2%
10
The Price Index 2011-2012
January 2011=100
104
Consumer Price
Index
102.4
103
102
101
Cost of food
After deducting
seasonality
100
100.8
99
11
The Tax Burden on Fuel, European
Countries and Israel
%, May 2012*
*The tax burden in European countries as of April 2012.
Source: The European Commission – processed by the Economics & Research Department
12
Main Reasons for the Crisis in the
Energy Market
Egyptian gas supply has been halted
Sharp decline in the gas supply from the “Yam Tethys”
natural gas reservoir
Global increase in the cost of fuel
Demand to increase the fuel reserves of the Electric Corp.
Implication: An increase of NIS 15 billion in the
cost of electricity production
13
The Main Measures for Coping with
the Crisis in the Energy Market
An 88% reduction in
the excise tax imposed
on diesel used for
producing electricity
Postponement &
rescheduling of VAT
payments
Restrain the
over 40%
increase in the
electricity tariff
Provide the
Electric Corp. a
State Guarantee
for the purchase
oil reserves
Implement a
NIS 400 million
optimization
program
Postponement of
deposits of NIS 1
billion for the
Emergency Plan
14
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