Continuous distributions Five important continuous distributions: 1. uniform distribution (contiuous) 2. Normal distribution 3. c2 –distribution [“ki-square”] 4. t-distribution 5. F-distribution 1 lecture 5 A reminder Definition: Let X: S R be a continuous random variable. A density function for X, f (x), is defined by: 1. f (x) 0 for all x 2. f ( x ) dx 1 3. P ( a X b ) b a 2 P(a<X<b) f (x) f ( x ) dx a b x lecture 5 Uniform distribution Definition Definition: Let X be a random variable. If the density function is given by f ( x) 1 BA 1 B A A x B then the distribution of X is the (continuous) uniform distribution on the interval [A,B]. 3 f (x) A B lecture 5 x Uniform distribution Mean & variance Theorem: Let X be uniformly distributed on the interval [A,B]. Then we have: • mean of X: • variance of X: 4 E(X ) AB 2 Var ( X ) ( B A) 2 12 lecture 5 Normal distribution Definition Definition: Let X be a continuous random variable. If the density function is given by f ( x) 1 2 s e 1 2s 2 xm 2 x 2 then the distribution of X is called the normal distribution with parameters m and s2 (known). My notation: The book’s: 5 X ~ N (m ,s ) 2 n ( x; m , s ) for density function lecture 5 Normal distribution Examples The normal distribution is without doubt the most important continuous distribution, since many phenomena are well described by it. IQ among AAU students 0.04 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.02 0.04 0.01 0.02 0 90 6 Height among AAU students 100 110 120 130 140 150 0 160 170 180 190 Plotting in Matlab: >> x=90:1:150; y=normpdf(x,120,10); plot(x,y) m s 200 lecture 5 Normal distribution Mean & variance Theorem: If X ~ N(m,s2) then • mean of X: E(X ) m • variance of X: Var ( X ) s 2 Density function: 0.4 0.3 N(0,1) N(1,1) N(0,2) 0.2 0.1 0.0 7 -4 -2 0 x 2 4 lecture 5 Normal distribution Standard normal distribution Standard normal distribution: Z ~ N(0,1) Density function: Distribution function: 1 f (z) 2 e 1 z z 2 F ( z) P (Z z) 2 1 2 e 1 z 2 0.4 (see Table A.3) 0.3 0.2 Notice!! Due to symmetry P(Z z) = 1 P(Z z) 0.1 0.0 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 P (1 Z 2) 8 2 1 1 2 e 1 2 z 2 dz lecture 5 2 dx Normal distribution Standard normal distribution Standard normal distribution, N(0,1), is the only normal distribution for which the distribution function is tabulated. We typically have X~N(m,s2) where m 0 and s2 1. Example: X ~ N(1,4) 0.4 0.3 What is P( X > 3 ) ? 0.2 0.1 0.0 -2 9 0 2 4 lecture 5 Normal distribution Standard normal distribution Theorem: Standardise X m If X ~ N(m,s2) then ~ N 0 ,1 s Example cont.: X ~ N(1,4). What is P(X >3) ? P ( X > 3) P ( X 1 > 2 3 1 ) P ( Z > 1) 1 P ( Z 1) 0 . 1587 2 0.4 Z ~ N(0,1) X ~ N(1,4) 0.3 0.4 0.2 Equal areas = 0.1587 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -2 10 0 2 Z ~ N(0,1) 0.3 4 -2 0 2 lecture 5 4 Normal distribution Standard normal distribution 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -2 P ( Z 1) 0 . 8413 11 0 2 4 P ( X > 3 ) 1 P ( Z 1) 1 0 .8413 0 .1587 lecture 5 Normal distribution Standard normal distribution Example cont.: X ~ N(1,4). What is P(X >3) ? P ( X > 3 ) 1 P ( X 3 ) 0 . 1587 Solution in Matlab: >> 1 – normcdf(3,1,2) ans = 0.1587 Solution in R: > 1 - pnorm(3,1,2) [1] 0.1586553 12 Cumulative distribution function normcdf(x,m,s) Cumulative distribution function pnorm(x,m,s) lecture 5 Normal distribution Example Problem: The lifetime of a light bulb is normal distributed with mean 800 hours and standard deviation 40 hours: 0.010 0.008 0.006 0.004 0.002 0.000 650 700 750 800 850 900 1. Find the probability that the lifetime of a bulb is between 750-850 hours. 2. Find the number of hours b, such that the probability of a bulb having a lifetime longer than b is 90%. 3. Find a time period symmetric around the mean so that the probability of a lifetime in this interval has probability 95% 13 lecture 5 950 Normal distribution Example Solution in Matlab: 1. P(750 < X < 850) = ? >> normcdf(850,800,40)-normcdf(750,800,40) 2. ? 3. ... Solution in R: 1. P(750 < X < 850) = ? > pnorm(850,800,40)-pnorm(750,800,40) 2. P(X > b) = 0.90 P(X b) = 0.10 > qnorm(0.1,800,40) 3. ... 14 lecture 5 Normal distribution Relation to the binomial distribution If X is binomial distributed with parameters n and p, then np (1 p ) Rule of thumb: If np>5 and n(1p)>5, then the approximation is good 15 0 .0 0 0 .0 5 is approximately normal distributed. 0 .1 5 X np 0 .1 0 Z 0 5 10 15 lecture 5 20 Normal distribution Linear combinations Theorem: linear combinations If X1, X2,..., Xn are independent random variables, where X ~ N ( μ i ,σ i ), for i 1 ,2 , ,n , 2 i and a1,a2,...,an are constant, then the linear combination Y a 1 X 1 a 2 X 2 a n X n ~ N ( m Y , s Y ), 2 where m Y a1 m 1 a 2 m 2 a n m n s Y a1 s 1 a 2 s 2 a n s n 2 16 2 2 2 2 2 2 lecture 5 The c2 distribution Definition Definition: (alternative to Walpole, Myers, Myers & Ye) If Z1, Z2,..., Zn are independent random variables, where for i =1,2,…,n, Zi ~ N(0,1), then the distribution of n 2 2 2 Y Z1 Z 2 Z n Zi 2 i 1 2 is the c -distribution with n degrees of freedom. Notation: 17 Y ~ c (n) 2 Critical values: Table A.5 lecture 5 The c2 distribution Definition Definition: A continuous random variable X follows a c2distribution with n degrees of freedom if it has density function 1 n 2 1 x 2 f ( x) 2 n 2 (n 2) e Y ~ c2(1) 0.5 0.4 Y ~ c2 (3) 0.3 0.2 Y ~ c2 (5) 0.1 0.0 0 18 x 2 4 6 8 10 for x > 0 Antag Y ~ c2(n) E(Y) Var(Y) =n = 2n E(Y/n) = 1 Var(Y/n) = 2/n lecture 5 t-distribution Definition Definition: Let Z ~ N(0,1) and V ~ c2(n) be two independent random variables. Then the distribution of T Z V n is called the t-distribution with n degrees of freedom. Notation: T ~ t(n) 19 Critical values: Table A.4 lecture 5 t-distribution Compared to standard normal 0.4 X ~ N(0,1) 0.3 T ~ T(3) 0.2 T ~ T(1) 0.1 0.0 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 •The t-distribution is symmetric around 0 •The t-distribution is more flat than the standard normal •The more degrees of freedom the more the tdistribution looks like a standard normal 20 lecture 5 F-distribution Definition Definition: Let U ~ c2(n1) and V ~ c2(n2) be two independent random variables. Then the distribution of U F n1 V n2 is called the F-distribution with n1 and n2 degrees of freedom. Notation: F ~ F(n1 , n2) 21 Critical values: Table A.6 lecture 5 F-distribution Example F ~ F(20,50) 1.0 F ~ F(10,30) 0.8 0.6 F ~ F(6,10) 0.4 0.2 0.0 0 22 1 2 3 4 lecture 5