Fiscal Affairs Department Effects of Good Government, by Ambrogio Lorenzetti, Siena, Italy, 1338-39 Fiscal Policies for Sustainable Economic Growth: Challenges for Slovenia Gerd Schwartz Deputy Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF Conference on Structural Challenges of the Slovenian Economy June 19, 2013 Ljubljana 1 Outline 1. Slovenia in a global context 2. Key Policy Challenges 3. The way forward 2 Setting the global context General Government Gross Debt Ratios 2000-2007 (Percent of GDP) 80 Advanced Emerging Slovenia 60 40 20 2000 2002 Source: WEO (2009 PPP-weighted averages) 2004 2006 3 Setting the global context General Government Gross Debt and Balance Ratios 2008-2012 (Percent of GDP) 120 0.5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 100 -1.5 Advanced Emerging 80 -3.5 Slovenia 60 -5.5 Advanced 40 -7.5 Emerging Slovenia 20 -9.5 2008 2010 2012 Sources: 2013 Fiscal Monitor and Slovenian authorities (ESA 95 deficit) 4 Setting the global context Debt Decomposition, 2007–13 (Percent of GDP) 120 100 80 Primary deficit Stock-flow adjustment Interest rate–growth differential Change in debt-to-GDP ratio 60 40 20 0 -20 CHE ISR SWE HKG KOR EST AUT BEL DEU CZE CAN FIN AUS NZL DNK ITA SLK NDL FRA USA SLV GBR ESP PRT JPN ISL GRC IRL -40 Sources: IMF staff estimates and projections. 5 Setting the global context Post-crisis Growth Performance in the Euro area (Percent change in real GDP between 2008 Q3 and 2012 Q2, SA) 1/ Austria Germany Malta Belgium France Euro area Netherlands Cyprus Luxembourg Finland Spain Italy Ireland Portugal Slovenia Greece 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 -16 -18 -20 Sources: Eurostat; and IMF staff calculations. 1/ Euro area members as of 2008. Last observation for Luxembourg is 2012 Q1. For Greece 2008 Q3 and 2012 Q3 used to calculate percent change in real GDP. 6 Setting the global context Advanced Economies: According to Debt Level and Trends (Percent of GDP) 120 Group 2 Group 1 Group 3 Change in debt since 2007 100 IRL 80 GRC JPN ESP 60 SVN 40 SVK AUS NZL DNK 0 GBR USA NLD FRA DEU FIN CAN CZE AUT KOR EST CHE SWE 20 PRT ITA BEL -20 0 50 100 150 200 Debt ,2013 Sources: IMF staff calculations and projections. 7 Setting the global context Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance in 2020-30 and Required Adjustment Needs, 2013–30, across Different Scenarios (Percent of GDP) 8 7 ITA CAPB, 2020–30 IRL PRT 6 5 BEL 4 ESP 3 USA 2 FRA 1 SVN GBR 0 -4 -2 0 2 4 Required adjustment, 2013–30 6 8 Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Note: For selected advanced economies (seven scenarios for each country), the figure plots the average 2020–30 cyclically adjusted primary balance (CAPB) against the residual adjustment need under various scenarios. Triangles illustrate scenarios with a benchmark level of debt of 60 percent by 2030, circles illustrate scenarios with a benchmark level of debt of 80 percent by 2030, and squares illustrate scenarios with no indicative debt benchmark by 2030, but in which countries reach at most overall budget balance. Baseline interest rate–growth differential assumptions are shown in blue; risk scenarios with interest rate–growth differentials 100 basis points above the baseline are shown in red; and favorable interest rate–growth differentials that are 100 basis points below the baseline are shown in green. Thus, the blue triangles correspond to the numbers reported in Statistical Table 13a. Challenges facing Slovenia Contingent liabilities in the financial and corporate sectors, linked to pervasive state ownership Struggle to achieve competitiveness, also reflecting little inward foreign direct investment High unemployment and low labor market participation, especially of the young and elderly Future spending pressures from an aging population 9 Challenges: Contingent Liabilities Government Guarantees, and Debt of SOEs, 2011-12 1/ 30 (Percent of GDP) SOE Debt Government-guaranteed Debt 25 20 15 10 5 0 Source: EC 2013; Ministry of Finance. 1/ SOE debt for 2011; government guarantees for 2012 10 Challenges: State Ownership Public Assets¹ (Percent of GDP, 2011) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 DNK EST SVN PRT FRA DEU NOR ESP FIN CZE POL SWE BEL AUT HUN USA NLD 0 1. As represented by ''other equity'' from the consolidated financial accounts of the general government sector. This covers financial equity assets and excludes quoted and unquoted shares in companies and mutual fund shares. Data is only available for a limited number of OECD countries. Source: OECD (2013), OECD National Accounts Statistics and International Direct Investment Statistics (databases), March. 11 Challenges: Competitiveness Average Monthly Gross Nominal Manufacturing Wages (Euros, 2011) 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 SVN CZE POL SVK EST Sources: Haver; and IMF staff calculations. HUN ROM 12 Challenges: Unemployment Unemployment Rate (Percent) 12 10 8 6 4 2 Slovenia (LFS) Euro area 0 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Sources: Bank of Slovenia; Ministry of Finance; Statistical Office of Slovenia; and IMF staff projections. 13 Challenges: Unemployment Labor Force Participation Rate, 2010 (Percent) Share of Long-term Unemployment in Total Unemployment, 2010 (Percent) 50.0 100.0 SLV 90.0 45.0 Advanced Europe 80.0 40.0 70.0 35.0 60.0 30.0 50.0 25.0 40.0 20.0 30.0 15.0 20.0 10.0 10.0 SLV Advanced Europe Other Advanced 5.0 55-64 25-54 15-24 Female Male 0.0 0.0 Sources: OECD, Eurostat, ILO, ILO KILM, WEO, and staff estimates . 14 Challenges: Aging Pension Expenditure Dynamics in the Euro Area (Public pensions, gross as percent of GDP) 20 2015 18 2055 16 14 2011 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Sources: European Commission; EPC; and IMF staff calculations Note: Slovenia 2011 instead of 2015 15 The Way Forward: The Framework Proceed with a gradual but persistent fiscal adjustment to build confidence and to create fiscal space to address structural issues Frame the adjustment within a credible mediumterm path For now, focus on the fiscal balance net of bank restructuring costs and let automatic stabilizers operate Critical: strengthen confidence to reinvigorate the economy and re-build sustainable growth 16 The Way Forward: Improve Competitiveness Wages and Productivity (4Q percentage chances) 20 Nominal Wage ULC Real wage 15 10 5 0 -5 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Sources: Bank of Slovenia; Ministry of Finance; Statistical Office of Slovenia; and IMF staff projections. 17 -40 Ireland Japan Iceland Sweden Switzerland New Zealand Slovenia Norway Hungary Finland Netherlands Czech Republic Denmark Greece Portugal Slovak Republic Austria Canada Spain United States Israel Estonia Germany Belgium Italy France Poland United Kingdom Australia Korea Participation tax rates (Percent) The Way Forward: Tackle Unemployment Participation Tax Rates, 2009 160 (Percent) Unemployment Benefit 140 Other Social Benefit 120 Including Taxes 100 Including In-work Benefits 80 60 40 20 0 -20 Source: OECD (2011), Taxation and Employment 18 The Way Forward: Boost Employment Spending on Active Labor Market Programs, 2009 (Percent of GDP) (Percent of Total) 1.0 0.9 35 Slovenia Advanced Europe Slovenia Advanced Europe 30 0.8 0.7 25 0.6 20 0.5 15 0.4 0.3 10 0.2 5 0.1 0 0.0 Total PES and Administration Training Hiring Subsidy Sources: OECD, Eurostat. 19 Conclusion Slovenia needs to send a strong signal to markets to re-build confidence and re-invigorate growth The commitment to gradual fiscal consolidation as well as recent consensual pension and labor market reforms are all steps in the right direction A high-profile privatization could be a clear sign to foreign investors that the economy is opening up Sound fiscal policy will be a necessary to accompany structural reforms by maintaining stability and creating fiscal space for growth- and employmentenhancing measures. 20 Thank you! 21