Chapter 9 Benefit/Cost Analysis Lecture slides to accompany Engineering Economy 7th edition Leland Blank Anthony Tarquin 9-1 © 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved LEARNING OUTCOMES 1. Explain difference in public vs private sector projects 2. Calculate B/C ratio for single project 3. Select better of two alternatives using B/C method 4. Select best of multiple alternatives using B/C method 5. Use cost-effectiveness analysis to evaluate projects 6. Describe how ethical compromises may enter public sector projects 9-2 © 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved Differences: Public vs Private Projects Characteristic Public Size of Investment Large Life Annual CF Funding Interest rate Selection criteria Private Small, medium, large Longer (30 - 50+ years) No profit Shorter (2 – 25 years) Profit Taxes, fees, bonds, etc. Stocks, bonds, loans, etc. Lower Higher Multiple criteria Primarily ROR Environment of evaluation Politically inclined 9-3 Economic © 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved Cash Flow Classifications in B/C Analysis Must identify cash flows as either benefits, disbenefits, or costs Benefits(B)--Advantages to the public Disbenefts (D)--Disadvantages to the public Costs (C)--Expenditures by the government Note: Savings to government are subtracted from costs Conventional B/C ratio = (B – D)/C Modified B/C ratio = [(B – D) – C]/ Initial Investment Profitability Index = NCF/ Initial Investment Note 1: All terms must be expressed in same units (i.e. PW, AW, or FW) Note 2: Do not use minus sign ahead of costs 9-4 © 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved B/C Analysis – Single Project Conventional B/C ratio = B-D C Modified B/C ratio = B – D – M&O C If B/C ≥ 1, accept project; otherwise, reject Denominator is initial investment PI = PW of NCFt PW of initial invest 9-5 © 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved Example B/C Analysis – Single Project A flood control project will have a first cost of $1.4 million with an annual maintenance cost of $40,000 and a 10 year life. Reduced flood damage is expected to amount to $175,000 per year. Lost income to farmers is estimated to be $25,000 per year. At an interest rate of 6% per year, should the project be undertaken? Solution: Express all values as A and then find B/C ratio: B = $175,000 D = $25,000 C = 1,400,000(A/P,6%,10) + $40,000 = $230,218 B/C = (175,000 – 25,000)/230,218 = 0.65 <1.0 Do not build project 9-6 © 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved Alternative Selection Using Incremental B/C Analysis – Two or more Alternatives Procedure similar to ROR analysis for multiple alternatives (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) Determine equivalent total cost for each alternative Order alternatives by increasing total cost Identify B & D for each alternative, if given, or go to step 5 Calculate B/C for each alternative and eliminate all with B/C<1.0 Determine incremental costs and benefits for first two alternatives Calculate ∆B/C; If >1.0, higher cost alternative becomes defender Repeat steps 5 & 6 until only one alternative remains 9-7 © 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved Cost Effectiveness Analysis Service sector projects primarily involve intangibles, not physical facilities; examples include health care, security programs, credit card services, etc. Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) combines monetary cost estimates with non-monetary benefits estimates to get cost-effectiveness ratio (CER) CER = equivalent total costs/effectiveness measure = C/E 9-8 © 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved CER - Independent Projects Procedure is as follows: (1) Determine total cost & effectiveness measure and calculate CER (2) Order projects: smallest to largest CER (3) Determine cumulative cost of projects and compare to budget, b (4) Fund all projects such that b is not exceeded. From the CERs shown below, determine which independent programs should be selected if the budget limit is $500,000. Program A B C D CER, $/graduate 1203 752 2010 1830 Program Cost, $ 305,000 98,000 126,000 365,000 9-9 © 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved CER - Independent Projects Cont’d First, Rank programs according to increasing CER: Program B A D C CER, $/graduate 752 1203 1830 2010 Program Cost, $ 98,000 305,000 365,000 126,000 Next, select programs until budget is not exceeded: Select programs B and A at total cost of $403,000 9-10 © 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved CER – Mutually Exclusive Projects Procedure is as follows: (1) Order alternatives smallest to largest effectiveness measure, E (2) Calculate CER for first alternative, the defender (3) Calculate incremental cost (∆C) & incremental effectiveness (∆E) and incremental measure (∆C/ (∆E) for challenger (4) If (∆C/ (∆E) < C/Edefender ,challenger becomes defender; otherwise, no dominance is present and both alternatives are retained (5) If dominance was present in step (4), eliminate defender and compare next alternative to new defender per steps (3) and (4). If dominance not present, current challenger becomes new defender against next challenger, but old defender is still viable. (6) Continue steps (3) through (5) until only 1 alt or non-dominated alts remain (7) Apply budget limit (or other criteria) to determine which of remaining non-dominated alternatives can be funded 9-11 © 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved CER – Mutually Exclusive Projects From the cost and effectiveness values shown below, determine which mutually exclusive alternative should be selected. Program A B C Cost (C) $/person 2200 1400 6860 Effectiveness (E) wins/person 4 2 7 9-12 CER $/win 550 700 980 © 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved CER – ME Projects Cont’d Solution: Order programs according to increasing effectiveness measure, E: Program B A C Cost (C) $/person 1400 2200 6860 Effectiveness (E) wins/person 2 4 7 B vs DN: C/EB = 1400/2 = 700 A vs B: ∆C/E = (2200 – 1400)/(4 – 2) = 400 C vs A: ∆C/E = (6860 – 2200)/(7 – 4) = 1553 CER $/win 700 550 980 eliminate B no dominance. Must use other criteria to select either A or C 9-13 © 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved Ethical Considerations Engineers are routinely involved in two areas where ethics may be compromised: Public policy making – development of strategy Public planning - development of projects Engineers must maintain integrity and impartiality and always adhere to code of ethics 9-14 © 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved Summary of Important Points B/C method used in public sector project evaluation Can use PW, AW, or FW, but must be consistent with units for B,C, and D For multiple mutually exclusive alternatives, compare two at a time and eliminate alternatives until only one remains For independent alternatives, compare each against DN and select all that have B/C ≥ 1.0 CEA analysis combines cost and nonmonetary measures Ethical considerations are especially prevalent in public sector projects 9-15 © 2012 by McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y All Rights Reserved