TOWARDS A MULTIDIMENSIONAL MEASURE OF GOVERNANCE SHABANA SINGH VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY APRIL 2011 “Government is not reason; it is not eloquence; it is force! It is a dangerous servant and a terrible master.” – George Washington, 1st President of USA. What is governance? UNDP: "comprises the mechanism and process for citizens and groups to articulates their interests, mediate their differences and exercise their legal rights and obligations.” European Commission: "the way public functions are carried out, public resources are managed and public regulatory powers are exercised". World Bank: "the state's institutional arrangements; the processes for formulating policy, decision making, and implementation; information flows within government; and the overall relationship between citizens and government." INTRODUCTION The available indices: Broad focus indices: Political Freedom Index (HDR, 1992) World Governance Indices by World Bank Mo Ibrahim’s Index of African Governance Narrow focus indices: Corruption Perception Index by Transparency International INTRODUCTION Governance is a multidimensional phenomena Political Freedom Index: • Personal Security • Rule of Law • Freedom of expression • Political Participation • Equality of Opportunity Worldwide Governance Indicators • Voice and Accountability • Political Stability and Absence of Violence • Government Effectiveness • Regulatory Quality • Rule of Law • Control of Corruption Mo Ibrahim’s Index of African Governance •Safety and Security •Rule of law, Transparency Corruption. •Participation and Human Rights •Human Development •Sustainable Economic Opportunity INTRODUCTION Broad concerns about governance indicators: What is governance and what indicators should be incorporated? (Arndt and Oman 2006), (Thomas 2010) Quality of data and cross-country comparisons (Kaufmann and Kraay 2007), (Julius Court and Mease 2002) and (Knack, Kugler, and Manning 2003) The sensitivity of the measures to the scaling of data This issue is the main focus of this paper MO IBRAHIM’S IAG The data: 57 indicators of Governance for 48 countries in Africa Multiples sources for data, like Transparency International, CIRI Human Rights Data 18 of the 57 indicators are ordinal variables Three tier structure to the index. 57 indicators are divided into 15 sub-categories. 15 sub-categories are aggregated up to five dimension indices. Five dimensions of Governance are aggregated to get a single measure of Governance MO IBRAHIM’S IAG Governance Safety and Security National Security Public Security Rule of law, Transparency Corruption. Ratification of critical legal norms Existence of Independent and Efficient Judicial Systems Corruption Participation and Human Rights Sustainable Economic Opportunity Human Development Participation Wealth Creation Poverty and Inequality Respect of Human Rights The Arteries of Commerce Health Absence of discrimination Environmental Sensitivity Education MO IBRAHIM’S IAG Government involvement in armed conflict No. of battle deaths No. of internally displaced persons National Security Safety and Security No. of civilian deaths due to one-sided violence Ease of Access to Small Arms and Light Weapons No. of refugees and asylum seekers from this nation Public Security Level of Violent Crime (Homicides Rates) MO IBRAHIM’S IAG Aggregation Methodology: Rescaling of raw data (both ordinal and cardinal) 𝒙 − 𝒎𝒊𝒏(𝒙) 𝑰𝒏𝒅𝒊𝒄𝒂𝒕𝒐𝒓 = 𝒎𝒂𝒙 𝒙 − 𝒎𝒊𝒏(𝒙) Three methods used for choosing the min and max: 1st method allows for inter-temporal comparisons for each country 2nd method allows for cross country comparisons for each year 3rd method : the “benchmark” case similar to the 2nd but uses values from 2000 Scores can be below 0 and above 100 MAIN ISSUE The IAG has 18 of its 57 indicators as ordinal variables. IAG imputes cardinal values to ordinal data • Problematic: Choice of scale can affect the rankings of different nations Example: 4 nations and 4 dimensions. We use a simple average across the 4 dimensional values to arrive at an overall measure. Observations can take values on a scale of 0-10 in each dimension. Higher values indicate better performance. EXAMPLE- ORDINAL DATA Dimension 1 Dimension 2 Dimension 3 Dimension 4 Average Score Country A 10 10 0 0 5 Country B 4.5 7.1 7.1 4.5 5.8 Country C 4.5 4.5 8.9 4.5 5.6 Country D 4.5 8.9 4.5 7.1 6.25 Nation A has the lowest score and Nation D has the highest. Undertake the following exercise, with the data above: Rescale the data to a 0-100 scale. Square the value in each dimension to get the new rescaled values. Compute the composite index, as done previously (simple average of the scores in each dimension). EXAMPLE- ORDINAL DATA Dimension 1 Dimension 2 Dimension 3 Dimension 4 Average Score Country A 100 100 0 0 50 Country B 20 50 50 20 35 Country C 20 20 80 20 35 Country D 20 80 20 50 42.5 Nation A now has the highest score! Note: The ranking of the nations in each specific dimension are preserved. The aggregation (simple average) results in a new scheme for the composite index. REVISITING ALKIREFOSTER METHODOLOGY Identifcation stage: Dual cut-off Deprivation cutoffs idenfity whether deprived in the that index Dimension cutoff: No. of indicators one has to be deprived in to be considered poor Aggregation stage : FGT based measure: For ordinal dimensions use the multidimensional adjusted headcount (M0) For cardinal dimensions use the any of the class of measures REVISIT: EXAMPLE Original data: With a scale of 0-10 Dimension 1 Dimension 2 Dimension 3 Dimension 4 Av Score Country A 10 10 0 0 5 Country B 4.5 7.1 7.1 4.5 5.8 Country C 4.5 4.5 8.9 4.5 5.6 Country D 4.5 8.9 4.5 7.1 6.25 Using the AF methodology: Dimension 1 Dimension 2 Dimension 3 Dimension 4 Av. Score Country A 0 0 1 1 0.5 Country B 1 1 0 1 0.75 Country C 1 1 0 1 0.75 Country D 1 0 0 0 0.25 Cutoff 5 8 4 5 Note: Lower scores imply better performance REVISIT: EXAMPLE Rescaled data: Scale 0-100 Dimension 1 Dimension 2 Dimension 3 Dimension 4 Av Score Country A 100 100 0 0 50 Country B 20 50 50 20 35 Country C 20 20 80 20 35 Country D 20 80 20 50 42.5 Using AF Methodology on the new data: Dimension 1 Dimension 2 Dimension 3 Dimension 4 Av Score Country A 0 0 1 1 0.5 Country B 1 1 0 1 0.75 Country C 1 1 0 1 0.75 Country D 1 0 0 0 0.25 25 64 16 25 Cutoff Notice: No change in rankings! A NEW GOVERNANCE INDEX Indicators are aggregated using AF to give dimension specific governance indices Average of these dimension specific indices gives overall level of governance for the nation Do not aggregate across nations. For the IAG the dimensions: Safety and Security, Rule of law, Transparency Corruption & Participation and Human Rights Treat them as ordinal , use M0 For IAG dimensions: Human Development & Sustainable Economic Opportunity Treat them as cardinal, use M1 A NEW GOVERNANCE INDEX For ordinal dimensions G s i I ci k s s d j 1 s w s j I s y ij z ; j s for s 1, 2 ,3 For cardinal dimensions G s i I ci k s s s d j 1 w s j I y s ij s z j z s j z y s j Overall governance is Gi 1 5 5 s 1 s Gi s ij ; for s 4 ,5 MAIN RESULTS Country Governance index Rank IAG Rank Difference in Ranks Cape Verde 0.043 1 3 -2 Mauritius 0.104 2 1 1 Lesotho 0.131 3 12 -9 Gabon 0.133 4 8 -4 Ghana 0.148 5 7 -2 Rwanda 0.303 17 18 -1 Swaziland 0.312 18 34 -16 Sierra Leone 0.317 19 37 -18 Benin 0.318 20 13 7 Burkina Faso Central African Republic 0.329 21 20 1 0.600 44 43 1 Sudan 0.659 45 45 0 Chad Congo, Democratic Rep. 0.693 46 46 0 0.723 47 47 0 Somalia 0.842 48 48 0 RESULTS (STRICT LINES) Country Governance index Rank IAG Rank Difference in Ranks Cape Verde 0.128 1 3 -2 Mauritius 0.269 4 1 3 Lesotho 0.292 8 12 -4 Ghana 0.370 10 7 3 Gabon 0.398 11 8 3 Rwanda 0.428 12 18 -6 Benin 0.494 18 13 5 Burkina Faso 0.514 24 20 4 Swaziland 0.520 25 34 -9 Sierra Leone 0.532 28 37 -9 Central African Republic 0.679 43 43 0 Sudan 0.726 45 45 0 Chad 0.733 46 46 0 Congo, Democratic Rep. 0.792 47 47 0 Somalia 0.878 48 48 0 RESULTS (SOFTER LINES) Country Governance index Rank IAG Rank Difference in Ranks Cape Verde 0.020 1 3 -2 Ghana 0.059 5 7 -2 Mauritius 0.073 6 1 5 Gabon 0.096 10 8 2 Lesotho 0.107 11 12 -1 Rwanda 0.131 15 18 -3 Benin 0.155 19 13 6 Burkina Faso 0.198 21 20 1 Swaziland 0.205 23 34 -11 Sierra Leone 0.233 28 37 -9 Central African Republic 0.439 44 43 1 Sudan 0.558 45 45 0 Chad 0.579 46 46 0 Congo, Democratic Rep. 0.669 47 47 0 Somalia 0.784 48 48 0 COMPARISON IAG Methodology Scaling of all indicators is necessary Gives value interpretation to ordinal variables Retain information on depth of deprivation within a dimension (indicator). New Methodology No scaling required Can be used with ordinal variables Gain information on depth of deprivation in governance (in terms of k) across the indicators Focus on deprived nations and dimensions (with the indicatorspecific cutoffs) REPORT CARDS The new index is a counting approach where zero implies not governance poor and one implies maximum deprivation. This allows a very convenient representation a nation’s performance. • Governance Report Card Report card for Rwanda: Rwanda Rank: 21 Dimension Score Best Score Safety and Security 0.11 0 Rule of Law 0.67 0 Human Rights 0.11 0 Sustainable Economic Development 0.41 0 Human Development 0.22 0.12 Overall Governance 0.30 0.03