Workshop on “Polio updates & End game strategies” Organized by Community Medicine Department, GMERS Medical College, Sola, in collaboration with NPSP (WHO), Gandhinagar 16th April, 2013 National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Polio update, AFP Surveillance End game strategy Dr. Anish Sinha State Surveillance Medical Officer World Health Organization National Polio Surveillance Project, India, Gandhinagar. National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Contents…. • • • • • • Global/ National / State update. Epidemiology of polio. AFP Surveillance. SIAs (NIDs / SNIDs). Certification of Polio eradication. End game strategy. National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Areas with Active Polio Transmission 1988 350 000 cases 2012 223 cases 125 countries 5 countries National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Rukhsar Khatoon last case of WPV detected in India (Jan 2011), her mother Shabida Bibi in Shahapar village, WB National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO India • India last polio case on 13th Jan.2011 • Removed from list of ENDEMIC Countries list in Feb.2012 Looking forward for Certification (SEAR) in Feb.2014 National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Global Polio updates 2012 Nigeria (122) Pakistan (58) ONLY THREE ENDEMIC COUNTRIES Afghanistan (37) CHAD 5 WPV1 (IMPORTATION) Niger 1WPV1 Till 9 Apr 13 – 18 cases (Nig-11, Pak-6, Afg-1) National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO WPV transmission from Northern Sindh, Pakistan to Greater Cairo (environmental sample +ve), Egypt Importation of WPV 2013 -, Egypt - polio free since 2004. National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO WPV cases, India 2100 1934 No case since Jan 2011 1800 1600 1500 1126 1200 874 900 741 676 559 600 265 300 268 225 134 66 42 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 P1 wild * data as on 12 April 2013 2004 2005 2006 P2 wild 2007 2008 2009 2010 1 2011 0 0 2012 2013* P3 wild National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Location of wild poliovirus and VDPV cases by type, India 2011 WPVs State P1 P3 Total West Bengal 1 0 1 Total 1 0 1 VDPVs State P2 P3 Total Chhattisgarh 1 0 1 Madhya Pradesh 1 0 1 Orissa 0 1 1 Punjab 1 0 1 Rajasthan 1 0 1 Uttar Pradesh 2 0 2 Total 6 1 7 * data as on 12 April 2013 2013* 2012 VDPV State West Bengal Total VDPV P2 1 1 State Bihar Total P2 1 1 National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Last wild poliovirus cases by type, India WPV2 24/10/1999 Aligarh (UP) WPV3 22/10/2010 Pakur (JH) WPV1 13/01/2011 Howrah (WB) * data as on 12 April 2013 National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Wild poliovirus detected in sewage samples, 2010 – 2011 2010 Mumbai Mumbai Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 X F ward X X X X G ward M ward Delhi Delhi Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 X Red cross hospital X X Bhalaswa lake X X Wazirpur JJ colony X X Swarn cinema X Batala house (Okhla) X X X X X X X X Mumbai 2011 Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 F ward G ward M ward Delhi Red cross hospital X Bhalaswa lake X X Wazirpur JJ colony X X Swarn cinema X X X X Batala house (Okhla) X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Nangloi X X X Sonia vihar X X X X X X X Patna Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 Choti pahari Dujara Transport nagar Kolkata Week Ward 8, MM Ward 135, KMC Wild poliovirus type 1 Wild poliovirus type 3 Negative for wild poliovirus X Sampling not scheduled Scheduled butPolio sample Surveillance not collected National Project: GoI & WHO Wild poliovirus detected in sewage samples, 2012* Mumbai Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 X F ward X X X G ward M ward Delhi Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 Red cross hospital Bhalaswa lake Wazirpur JJ colony Swarn cinema Batala house (Okhla) Sonia vihar Nangloi Patna Week X Choti pahari X X Dujara X Transport nagar X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Kolkata Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 Ward 8, MM Ward 135, KMC Ward 29, KMC Ward 66, KMC * data as on 12 April 2013 ` Wild poliovirus type 1 Negative for wild poliovirus Wild poliovirus type 3 Result pending X Scheduled but sample not collected Sampling not scheduled National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Wild poliovirus detected in sewage samples, 2013* Mumbai Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 F ward G ward M ward Delhi Red cross hospital Bhalaswa lake Wazirpur JJ colony Swarn cinema Batala house (Okhla) Sonia vihar Nangloi Patna Week 1 X Choti pahari X X Dujara Transport nagar X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Kolkata Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 Ward 8, MM Ward 135, KMC Ward 29, KMC Ward 66, KMC * data as on 12 April 2013 Wild poliovirus type 1 Negative for wild poliovirus Wild poliovirus type 3 Result pending X Scheduled but sample not collected Sampling not scheduled National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Progress in India–A snapshot 2100 1934 1800 1600 1500 • 1995: Polio SIAs (campaigns) launched • 1997: Acute Flaccid Paralysis (AFP) Surveillance initiated • 1999: Last case of Wild Polio Virus (WPV) type 2 – (U.P) • 2010: Last case of WPV type 3 - (Jharkhand) • 2011: Last case of WPV type 1 - ( West Bengal) • 2012: India removed from list of endemic countries 1126 1200 874 900 741 676 559 600 265 300 268 225 134 66 42 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 P1 wild * data as on 12 April 2013 2004 2005 2006 P2 wild 2007 2008 2009 2010 1 2011 0 0 2012 2013* P3 wild National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Gujarat Wild Cases 2000-13 Year - Cases BAN 2000 - 2 2001 - 1 PAT KTC 2002 - 24 2003 - 3 RJT SRN AND JMD 2005 - 1 2007 - 1 2008 - 0 2009 - 0 2010 - 0 2011 - 0 2012 - 0 2013 - 0 JMC PML GNR AMC KDA AMD 2004 - 0 2006 - 4 SBK MSN BVC DHD VDC VDD RJC POR AML JUN BVN BRH NMD SRC SRT NAV DNG VLD National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Epidemiology of Polio National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Polio: Epidemiology • Reservoir of infection: Man (for every clinical case,1000 sub clinical case (children) & 75 (adults) • Infective material: feces • Period of communicability: most infective 10 days before & after onset. Host factors • Age:6 months to 3 years most common • Sex: 3:1 ---male: female • Precipitating factors: fatigue, trauma, I/M injections • Immunity : OPV (life long) Environmental factors • Rainy season (Jun – Sep), overcrowding & poor sanitation National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Paralytic Poliomyelitis • Acute onset • Fever just prior to onset of paralysis • Associated symptoms: malaise, sore throat, constipation abdominal pain. Muscle pain • Signs of meningeal irritation, stiffness in back & neck may be present. • Progression: maximum in <4 days. starts proximally and moves distally • Involvement: asymmetrical patchy paralysis ,proximal muscle groups> distal muscle groups • DTR: diminished • Cranial nerve involvement : uncommon • Respiratory insufficiency: life threatening, uncommon • Sensory: no loss only way to confirm is isolation of wild virus from stool. National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Strategies of Polio Eradication 1985 – Routine immunization Individual immunity 1995 – NID’s ( PPI / IPPI ) To replace wild with vaccine virus 1997 - AFP surveillance To identify reservoir of transmission 2000 – Mopping up immunization To eliminate last foci of transmission National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO AFP Surveillance National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Objective of AFP surveillance Reliably detect areas where polio transmission is occurring or likely to occur National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Principle of AFP Surveillance in identifying polio cases Identify children with the SYNDROME of Acute Flaccid Paralysis • Acute- Sudden onset, Rapid progression • Flaccid- Floppy/ soft & yielding to passive stretching at anytime during the illness. • Paralysis is loss of strength of muscles, Severe loss of motor strength is called paralysis or plegia Paresis- less severe loss of motor strength National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Definition of AFP for surveillance purposes Sudden onset weakness & floppiness in any part of the body in a child < 15 years of age or paralysis in a person of any age in which polio is suspected. National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Logic of AFP investigation & stool sample collection • Sensitivity increases when all AFP cases investigated • Testing of stools of all AFP - most valid test for identification of Polio • ALL cases with ‘AFP’ should be reported & their stools must be tested!! • Even if other ‘tests’ (CT scan, MRI, etc.) or additional clinical information point to other diagnoses; stools must be tested to rule out Polio National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Reporting • All AFP cases should be reported immediately • ALL AFP cases reported within 6 months of onset of paralysis should be investigated • All reporting units, informers and other contacts should continue to report AFP cases as per existing case definition National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Action when AFP is reported • FIRST – Start stool collection process • Investigate - SMO/ DIO - Confirm if AFP, if not reject case & record the same. There is only one category of cases - AFP • Allot EPID number & Report the case as AFP • CIF & LRF should be filled. • Use the revised CIF/ Linelist form. • Ensure that stools are transported to lab in cold chain • NPSU will Classify after lab result received • Give feedback to the source that the AFP reported was/ was not polio. • Maintain documentation at ALL levels. National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Therefore… The basic system of AFP surveillance remains unchanged • To enhance sensitivity, all cases of acute flaccid paralysis should be reported & investigated • Borderline cases should be included & stool specimens tested National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO The AFP Surveillance System Hospitals Clinics Community Investigation Non-Polio AFP Polio AFP National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO When too much polio is around….. AFP cases Polio cases Borderline AFP cases Non-AFP cases Surveillance sensitivity is adequate enough to detect 90% polio cases National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO When transmission is very low….. If borderline cases are taken & stool specimens collected … Surveillance sensitivity is not good enough & detects only 50% polio cases …Sensitivity increases and leads to 100% detection of polio cases AFP cases Polio cases Borderline cases Non-AFP cases Remember Non AFP cases still not taken National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Likely to be AFP cases…. • • • • • • • GBS of any variety Transverse myelitis Monoparesis Traumatic neuritis Flaccid Paraplegias Flaccid Quadriplegia Isolated bulbar paralysis • Post-diphtheric polyneuritis • Viral neuritis, • Flaccid hemiplegia • Isolated neck paralysis • Wrist/foot drop, etc. • Transient paresis • Facial Palsy. National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Analysis of initial clinical presentation of WPV 2006 - 10 Clinical Presentation 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 586 (86.7) 757 (86.71) 494 (88.37) 648 (87.45) 32 (76.19) Only H/O Paralysis 24 (2.7) 14 (1.60) 14 (2.5) 10 (1.35) 1 (2.38) Hemiplegia 35 (5.2) 54 (6.19) 25 (4.47) 48 (6.48) 3 (7.14) G.B.Syndrome 6 (0.9) 3 (0.34) 3 (0.54) 3 (0.40) Traumatic Neuritis 4 (0.6) 8 (0.92) 1 (0.18) 2 (0.27) Only Limp 4 (0.6) 1 (0.11) 0 (0) 4 (0.54) Acute Encephalitis 3 (0.4) 3 (0.34) 4 (0.72) 1 (0.13) Isolated Facial Palsy 3 (0.4) 19 (2.18) 10 (1.79) 14 (1.89) Isolated Neck Flop 4 (0.6) 5 (0.57) 4 (0.72) 4 (0.54) 0 (0) 2 (0.23) 0 (0) 1 (0.13) 7 (1.0) 7 (0.80) 4 (0.72) 6 (0.81) 2 (4.76) 676 873 559 741 42 Clinical Poliomyelitis Post Diptheric Polyneuritis Others Total 4 (9.52) National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO STOOL COLLECTION, STORAGE , TRANSPORT. • Adequate Stool. – 2 Specimens, 24 Hours Apart. – 8 gms. – Within 14 Days of Paralysis Onset & with proper Cold Chain • Procedure. – Errors. – Storage(Delayed Second Sample) • Cold Chain. • Rectal Tube. • Transport.(PHN & HA) • Death of AFP Case.( Spinal Cord , Intestinal Content) National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO GOLD STANDARD FOR AFP SURVEILLANCE • Non – Polio AFP Rate > 2.0 • Adequate Stool Samples > 80% • Timeliness of Reporting > 80% National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO VIROLOGIC CLASSIFICATION SCHEME CONFIRM WILD POLIOVIRUS COMPATIBLE RESIDUAL WEAKNESS, DIED OR LOST TO F/U AFP EXPERT REVIEW DISCARD INADEQUATE STOOL SPECIMENS NO RESIDUAL WEAKNESS NO WILD POLIOVIRUS TWO ADEQUATE* DISCARD DISCARD STOOL SPECIMENS National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Compatible Cases 2002-2013 2002 – 14 cases 2003 – 4 cases 2004 – 1 case 2005 – 7 cases BAN # S # S # S MSN PAT SB K KTC # S # S # S GNR AM C RJ T KDA PM L AM D JM C AND RJ C JM D DH D # S SRN # S BVC VDC # S VDD BRH # S NM D #S # S 2006 – 3 cases 2007 – 5 cases 2008 – 1 case 2009 – 1 case 2010 – 1 case 2011 – 0 Case 2012 – 0 Case 2013 – 0 Case BVN PO R AM L # S JUN SRC # S SRT NAV DNG VLD National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO HOT CASE • A case of AFP with any of the following set of conditions Age < 5 year plus H/O fever at onset plus asymmetrical proximal paralysis. Age < 5 year with rapidly progressive paralysis leading to bulbar involvement (cranial nerves affected) & death. Any case which in the opinion of SMO/DIO looks like polio. National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO CONTACT SAMPLES To be considered for cases fulfilling criteria like Hot cases, but adequate samples from case could not be taken National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Supplementary Immunization Activities: NIDs/ SNIDs National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO SIAs National Immunization Day. • NID: - Booth Activity. - House-to house Activity. - Transit Teams. - Mobile Teams. • SNID: Sub National Immunization Day. - Migratory SNID in Gujarat (11 districts & 5 corporations). National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Continued focus on high risk areas and populations 107 blocks of UP and Bihar West UP: HR blocks – 66 Kosi river operational intensification Immunization of newborns Bihar: HR blocks – 41 Intense focus on migrants & mobile populations Religious congregations 2 million children vaccinated in congregations each year 8 million children in transit immunized in India each round 100,000 of these in running trains National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Certification of polio eradication National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Background • Certification is done for WHO Regions; not for individual countries • WHO Regions certified polio free: – Americas 1994 – Western Pacific 2000 – Europe 2002 • Certification of a region is considered only when – All countries in the area demonstrate Absence of WPV transmission for at least 3 consecutive years Presence of certification standard surveillance Global action plan for laboratory containment of WPV National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Certification of SEAR* Last WPV case in SEAR 28 Aug: India presents Preliminary Document Dec: Special RCC Meeting for India GCC formed SEARCCPE formed 1995 1997 * South 2 RCCPE meetings planned 2011 2012 Feb: India will present final document Certification of SEAR likely 2013 2014 East Asia Region of WHO National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Certification standard surveillance • Non-polio AFP rate: ≥ 2 per 100,000 population (< 15 years) annually • Adequate stool specimens : ≥80% • All stool specimens tested for poliovirus at WHO-accredited laboratory • Additional Criteria • Investigation of AFP cases within 48 hours of initial notification: ≥80% • Timeliness of weekly AFP surveillance reports: ≥80% National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO National Certification Committee for Poliomyelitis Eradication (NCCPE) • Established in 1998 to • Examine, assess & verify data collected by govt. • Field visits to review evidence of interruption of poliovirus transmission in the country • Independent judgment of polio status • Present country report to RCCPE* Regional Certification Commission for Poliomyelitis Eradication * National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO NCCPE Field Visits • Sep12 - Jun13 • Five categories of states have been formed Category 5 states National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Laboratory Containment • Union Health Ministry already issued letter in this regard to all the States (dated 14th Feb 2013). • National Task Force for Lab Containment of WPV formed, Health Secretary (GOI) Chairman. • To identify Labs, likely to store WPV – by Dec 2013. National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Polio Endgame Strategy National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Context • No WPV2 in India since 1999 • tOPV used in RI and during NIDs • bOPV used in most SNIDs since Jan 2010 • Areas/ populations with low routine immunization coverage • All cVDPVs in India due to type 2 in setting of low immunity to type 2 National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO cVDPV cases, India 2009-2011 •cVDPV cases detected in 2009-10 •100% due to type 2 Type 2 District 2009 2010 2011 Badaun 3 0 0 Bulandshah ar 2 0 0 Ghaziabad 0 1 0 Meerut 2 0 0 Moradabad 2 0 0 Pilibhit 4 0 0 Shahjahanp ur 2 1 0 Total 15 2 0 National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Trends in Seroprevalence Against Poliovirus Results from Different Serosurveys Moradabad Nov 2007 (N=121) AFP cases UP Nov 08 – mid 09 (169) Moradabad May 2009 (N=534) UP & Bihar Aug 2010 (N=1280) UP & Bihar Aug 2011 (N=1246) 6-7 mo 6-11 mo 6-7 mo 6-7 mo 6-11 mo Type 1 78% 96.5% 99% 98% 98.5% Type 2 56% 33.7% 75% 65% 85% Type 3 69% 42.6% 49% 77% 88.2% Age High immunity levels sustained for P1 since 2009 Increasing trend in immunity level for P3 in 2010-11 National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Managing the risk of VDPVs National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Preparing for the polio endgame • A tOPV- bOPV switch globally (~2014/2015) • Use of IPV in conjunction with OPV (?) • Eventual cessation of all OPV use globally at some point in the future (e.g. 2017-18 period). • Support research activities to generate evidence to guide decision making National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Pre-switch boosting of type 2 immunity • Switch soon after tOPV NIDs • Improve RI, particularly DTP3 and OPV3 coverage • Adding a dose of IPV in RI for infants prior to switch National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Conclusions • India can be in a position to move ahead with polio endgame strategy • Careful planning and consideration of risks required before implementation • Earliest possible timing for tOPV-bOPV switch: Qtr.1 2014 • Lessons from tOPV-bOPV switch significant for subsequent withdrawal of all OPV from programme National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO Thank you National Polio Surveillance Project: GoI & WHO