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Latin America and China: Highlights
Inés Bustillo
Director, ECLAC Washington Office
Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars
19 September 2011
 South-South ties are growing
• By 2017 South-South trade could exceed NorthNorth trade
• South-South investments are also developing quickly
• The number of global trans-Latin and trans-Asian
firms is increasing
 Over the past decade China has strengthened its
economic ties with Asia-Pacific, Africa and Latin
America and the Caribbean
• The growth of the developing countries is depending
increasingly on China, which is already a key trading
partner for most of them
2
South-South trade has become more significant within world
trade in the wake of the crisis and could
exceed North-North trade by 2017
EXPORTS BY REGION, 1985-2020
(Percentages of the total)
Source: ECLAC, on the basis of official figures
Nota Figures for 2011-2020 are projections on the basis of the long-term linear trend.
3
China has gained a much larger share of the region’s trade in the past
decade, unlike the United States, whose share has decreased, and the
European Union, whose share is stagnated
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: SHARE OF SELECTED PARTNERS
IN EXTERNAL TRADE, 1990-2010
(Percentages)
Exports
Imports
Source: ECLAC, on the basis of COMTRADE, CEPALSTAT and DOTS.
4
The region runs a large deficit with developing Asian countries
(especially China) and a surplus with the United States
(especially in the case of Mexico)
United States
(Millions of dollars)
400 000
European Union
300 000
200 000
100 000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
-100 000
Developing Asia
300 000
300 000
200 000
200 000
100 000
100 000
-100 000
-100 000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
China
400 000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
400 000
Source: ECLAC, on the basis of United Nations Commodity Trade Database (COMTRADE) and national sources.
5
Trade between AP and LAC is almost entirely
inter-industrial, though with some differences among AP countries
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN : EXPORT STRUCTURE BY TECHNOLOGICAL INTENSITY
(Percentage)
A. MAJOR EXPORT MARKETS, 2008-2010
100%
90%
80%
25%
70%
24%
60%
50%
40%
23%
30%
62%
12%
52%
20%
10%
24%
28%
0%
Latin America Asia Pacific United States
and the
Caribbean
High tech manufactures
Low tech manufactures
Primary Products
European
Union
B. SELECTED ASIAN MARKETS, 2007-2009
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
ASEAN
China
India
Japón
Corea
Medium tech manufactures
Natural Resource-based Manufactures
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of United Nations - COMTRADE and official national statistics.
Mundo
The region is facing these new conditions with major strengths,
but also significant weaknesses
Strengths
•
•
•
Economic growth, macroeconomic stability and improvement in employment and
poverty indicators
Growing middle class
Abundant natural-resources endowment:
– A third of the world’s potential farming areas and freshwater reserves
– 31% of world production of biofuels and 13% of world petroleum
– 47% of world production of copper, 28% of molybdenum and 23% of zinc
– 48% of world production of soybean, 31% of beef, 23% of milk and 16% of maize
– 20% of the surface area of natural forests and abundant biodiversity
Weaknesses
•
•
•
Production and export structure based on static comparative advantages more than
dynamic competitive advantages
Lags in innovation, science and technology, education and infrastructure
Productivity lags and large gaps between sectors
7
Challenges for the region: improve its position
in the international economy (within each country)
• Strengthen countercyclical macroeconomic policies
– Need to prepare for the possibility of a period of currency appreciation in
commodity-exporting countries
– This would make export diversification more difficult, increasing the need for
greater productivity across all sectors of the economy
– Monetary and fiscal policy must be coordinated with reserves accumulation,
regulation of capital flows and macroprudential measures
• Productive development policies (diversification and inclusive growth)
– Incorporate more value added and knowledge into exports
– Diversify across products and markets
– Promote clusters underpinned by comparative advantages and public-private
partnerships
– Improve governance of natural resources
– Promote innovation (participation in global networks)
– Encourage internationalization (trans-Latin firms)
– Support SMEs (certification, traceability, carbon footprint)
8
Challenges for the region: gain a better position
in the international economy (regional tasks)
• Strengthen open regionalism (regional public goods)
–
–
–
–
–
Infrastructure: energy, transport and logistics
Trade facilitation; financial support for intraregional trade
Innovation and regional value chains (critical mass and greater scale)
Payment settlement mechanisms and regional reserve funds
Progress towards a more integrated regional market
• Rethink strategies for global and regional alliances
– Exploit opportunities for South-South trade and investment
– Joint approach to building closer ties with Asia-Pacific (especially China)
9
Latin America and China: Highlights
Inés Bustillo
Director, ECLAC Washington Office
Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars
19 September 2011
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